NFL Week 15 - Cowboys & Redskins? Welcome to the good old US of American Football!

The NFL keeps on rolling & we're really into the home stretch now with just 3 weeks of regular season games left before the playoffs, we're looking at two games between AFC North & NFC East teams that have big playoff implications with all 4 teams' chances in precarious positions.

Pittsburgh Steelers @ Dallas Cowboys

This game between the two best supported teams in the NFL has plenty of subtext to it & it's no surprise to see it's the televised evening game here in the UK, regardless of all the things surrounding this game we're struggling to see how the Steelers have been made favourites for the clash.

(DeMarcus Ware sacks Ben Roethlisberger - we could see plenty of this on Sunday)

There was tragedy before the Cowboys' game last week as practice squad member Jerry Brown Jr was killed in a car crash with team mate Josh Brent at the wheel, Brent was subsequently charged with manslaughter yet the Cowboys came up with a win over the Bengals with a last minute field goal. Dallas have hit a rich vein of form, winning 4 of their last 5 just when it looked like their season was a lost one with a 3&6 start & although they've not beaten good sides, the Bengals aside, it's been altogether better than Pittsburgh's recent run. The Steelers' recent poor run of one win in 4 has coincided with injury to their starting quarterback Ben Roethlisberger & even though he returned last week they fell to the San Diego Chargers who have been laughably poor for most of their season. Big Ben is clearly playing whilst still injured (he's wearing a Kevlar body protector) & whilst he is exceptional on the big occasions he may just be pushing it too much this time, it also doesn't help that their rushing attack really isn't good enough (ranks 25th in yards per game).

Pittsburgh's offensive line has been a weak point for several years & that impacts on their running offense & also their pass protection of Roethlisberger & it's no surprise that he has been getting injured, that pass protection will be sorely tested by the Cowboy's star player & sack monster linebacker DeMarcus Ware who will be in the passer's face at every opportunity. Pittsburgh are still a force on defense, ranking 1st in yards given up & they'll be relying on that holding up here against Dallas's potent passing offense - it won't be easy even with the Cowboys' top receiver Dez Bryant having a fractured finger. Bryant's injury should mean that Tony Romo targets his good buddy Jason Witten even more & Miles Austin should see plenty of action too, the short passes to tight end Witten may do just the trick against the aggressive Steeler defense. Dallas are renowned for being chokers when it gets to December & the playoffs loom but it's worth siding with them against the Steelers who have lost to some much poorer sides than the Cowboys, take the 11/10 on offer for a home win.

Washington Redskins @ Cleveland Browns

In another game between sides from the AFC North & NFC East we see Washington travel to Cleveland to take on the Browns, the sides have won 7 in a row between them to improve from poor starts & this could be a good one.

(Redskin rookies Kirk Cousins & Alfred Morris will hope to lead them to victory)

The Redskins have one big injury problem with their impressive rookie passer Robert Griffin III getting a knee injury last week & he is either out or going to play on the injured knee which will severely limit his mobility which is such a key facet of his game. the positive for the Redskins is that their backup quarterback, another rookie, Kirk Cousins did a great job when stepping into the game last week & they have the league's number one ranked rushing attack anyway. That run offense of course is helped by Griffin's ability to take off but their running back (another rookie!) Alfred Morris has been outstanding running for over 100 yards in 6 games this year including in his last 3 games. There should be points available whoever starts for Washington against the Browns' defense that is merely ordinary at best but they do need to improve on defense themselves, it's an area where they don't really have any stars & they are too reliant on 37 year old veteran London Fletcher at times.

This game really is rookie central as the Browns' quarterback Brandon Weeden & starting tailback Trent Richardson are both first year players too, Richardson has undoubtedly been a success with 10 touchdowns although his yrads per carry is only average whilst Weeden has had his troubles at times. Weeden is actually the oldest player ever drafted in the first round of the NFL draft (he was 28 at the time but 29 now) & he previously played pro baseball, he's thrown 15 interceptions to 13 touchdowns but we think he should have done better with a nice set of receivers to aim for. Josh Gordon has been the Cleveland receiver to really step up to the mark in recent weeks & he'll like his chances of more receiving yards against the weak Redskin secondary. The Browns also have one of the league's best cornerbacks in Joe Haden who is basically a shutdown corenerback meaning he can completely nullify an opposing receiver - it may however not be overly useful in this one as we see Washington going very run heavy here.

Even though both sides are on winning runs we can't be too impressed with Cleveland's wins that have come against Pittsburgh without Roethlisberger & then the hapless Raiders & Chiefs, they'll have a good go at it but Washington can pick up the win & keep themselves in playoff contention.

Selections:
Dallas Cowboys to beat Pittsburgh Steelers at 11/10 (General)
Washington Redskins to beat Cleveland Browns at 5/6 (General)

NFL Week 8 - Hernandez & The Gronk can Waltz to Wembley Win

This week is British NFL fans best of the season other than the Super Bowl as the NFL bandwagon rolls into London town for the always sold out International Series game, it's a big one this year as last year's Super Bowl runners up the New England Patriots come up against the improving St Louis Rams at Wembley Stadium. We're taking a look at the big one for UK NFL nuts plus another game to see where the betting value lies, after last week where 6 teams had bye weeks there is a fuller set of fixtures with just the usual 4 teams resting.

New England Patriots @ St Louis Rams

In this game the nominal home team (meaning they gave up a home fixture in the US) are the St Louis Rams but it might not feel that way when they get into the stadium as the New England Patriots are the best supported team in the UK by a margin & will have plenty cheering them on. The Patriots have had far more success than the Rams in recent years meaning they've experienced big games & they have the stars to get fans excited too, it's easy to see why they are strong favourites in this one.

(Rob Gronkowski can wow the Wembley crowd)

The Patriots are second favourites for the Super Bowl but only have a 4&3 record, with their three losses coming by a combined total of just 4 points with narrow losses against Arizona whilst they were really rolling, the always tough Ravens & then to the defensively sound Seahawks. Those losses clearly could have gone either way & we could now be looking at an unbeaten Patriots side, they're ranked first in total offensive yards & can hurt opposing defenses in so many ways with their running looking more impressive this year to complement Tom Brady's passing game. Stevan Ridley has been the lead rusher for the Pats & has been averaging a steady 4.4 yards plus has crossed the goalline for touchdowns on 4 occasions, the biggest dangers in & around the end zone though are the star tight end pair of Rob Gronkowski & Aaron Hernandez. Both Hernandez & 'the Gronk' are horrible matchups for opposing defenders as they are built like blockers yet have great hands for receiving meaning they can get extra yards after the catch regularly, Gronkowski has already gained 5 TDs on the season, with 2 coming last week, & he looks a fair price at 6/1 to score the first in this one.

St Louis have certainly improved from last year where they won just twice & they already have 3 victories, 2 coming against the Seahawks & Cardinals so you could argue they have a form line on New England. Danny Amendola was turning into a star for the Rams but is out for a while with injury & they've subsequently lost their last two (against the Packers last week was no disgrace) & their running game hasn't looked good enough to cover any flaws in the passing of Sam Bradford with Steven Jackson's production down on last year at just 3.8 yards a carry & one touchdown, it looks unlikely he'll improve here against a decent run defense. The Rams best chance of winning here is by putting pressure on Tom Brady & they do rank 5th in sacks this year, unfortunately for them the Patriots mish mash of a defense has actually done a pretty good job protecting Brady & he's mobile enough to make defenders miss anyway.

In our opinion New England are by far the more likely side to rise to the occasion & we can see them putting plenty of points on the board plus their sometimes suspect secondary won't be too troubled by the Rams' mediocre reciever corps. Rather than take the Patriots on the handicap we like the prices available for them to win by between 7-12 points at 4/1 & 13-18 at a huge 9/1 with bwin.

San Diego Chargers @ Cleveland Browns

The Chargers have the potential to be genuinely dangerous this year but have been hampered by the incredibly inconsistent play of their quarterback Philip Rivers who was at one time definitely amongst the elite  but hasn't reached those standards in the last season & a half, coming off a bye week to the Browns however could be just the tonic tp his passing woes.

(We're putting our trust in Philip Rivers against the Browns)

The Browns have been pretty lousy on the stats this year, ranking 26th defensively against the pass & 24th against the run & that has shown in their results with just one win in their 7 games. The Chargers meanwhile rank 2nd against the run, allowing just 71.2 yards on the ground per game & that should help limit the Browns' first round draft pick & ace young running back Trent Richardson who has become their major weapon leading in receptions also with 24. Defensive backs Eric Weddle & Quentin Jammer will also make it difficult for Brandon Weeden to pass, the Browns' quarterback had looked a little better in the last three weeks but the Chargers' defense are a step up from the Bengals & Colts. They will be hoping that Josh Gordon can come up with another monster touchdown reception as that has been their big weapon in recent weeks, he's averaging a scarcely believable 23.8 yards per catch!

The Chargers are coming off a bye week & that will be a big benefit as Rivers needed to work out some of the problems in his game & Ryan Mathews at running back continues to recover from injury, he should be getting to full strength now & is capable of a big game here. Rivers has good receioving targets in Malcolm Floyd & Antonio Gates to throw to plus Robert Meachem seems to be coming into the game more now as evidenced by his two touchdowns against his previous team the Saints. Overall we feel the Chargers have an awful lot more going for them than the less than mediocre Browns & even with the risk that is Rivers' quarterback play they look an outstanding bet giving up just 3 points on the handicap.

Selections:
New England Patriots to beat St Louis Rams by 7-12 points at 4/1 (General) & 13-18 points at 9/1 (bwin)
Rob Gronkowski to score first touchdown in Patriots v Rams game at 6/1 (General)
San Diego Chargers to beat Cleveland Browns with -3 points on the handicap at Evens (Various)

NFL Week 6 - Bengals to beat up Browns

We're still smarting after the Texans couldn't beat the Jets by 9 points or more on Monday night even with a performance that should have been just enough but anyway we're back with selections for Sunday as we look to bounce back. The season long bets of the Texans for the Super Bowl & the 49ers to win the NFC are still looking good & there should be plenty of opportunities for nice bets between now & the post season.

Cincinnati Bengals @ Cleveland Browns

In the first game we're taking a look at we have a divisional rivalry as the AFC North sees Cincinnati travel to take on the NFL's only team without a win in 2012, the Cleveland Browns. Cleveland are a pretty poor side as evidenced by their record this year & just 4 wins, against weak sides, last year & they've already lost to the Bengals this time around just 4 games ago with Cincinnati prevailing 37-24.

(A stupendous catch - all in a day's work for A.J. Green)

The Browns have rookies playing at their two key skill positions on offense with Brandon Weeden at qyarterback & Trent Richardson at tailback, both were selected in the first round of the draft but Richardson has started at lot better than Weeden. Brandon Weeden is stone last in the quarterback ratings this year at a lowly 64.5 & although he had his best display when facing the Bengals (2 TDs & no interceptions) he can't be relied upon when the pressure's on. Rookie passers struggling is nothing new & it is all a learning curve for Weeden, the Browns will try to take the pressure off by running the ball with Richardson & although he's done reasonably their other backs have offered next to nothing. With the Brown's pretty lightweight offense they've needed their defense to step up but that side of the game has been weak too, ranking 29th in yards given up & they don't really have any defensive stars other thancornerback Joe Haden who returns this week from suspension.

The Browns need Haden back  because he'll be up against one of the very best receivers around in the Bengals' A.J. Green, Green already has 4 touchdowns & is pushing 100 receiving yards a game as he continues to form a fine partnership with passer Andy Dalton. In contrast to Brandon Weeden, Dalton is having a fine season & has thrown 9 strikes to 6 picks & is gaining an impressive average of 8 yards per pass - he'll fancy himself to have more success in this one. The Bengals are just average defensively & they don't tend to make explosive plays (they've gained just one interception all season) but average means not bad & they have little to fear today. We think the Bengals should be hotter favourites than they are & odds of 10/13 for them to pick up the win are fair indeed even though playing on the road.

Indianapolis Colts @ New York Jets

In this game we again like the look of the road team as the Colts travel to take on the New York Jets who put up a spirited but ultimately fruitless display against the Texans on Monday night. Last week while the Jets were being beaten, Indianapolis managed to gain a win over one of the league's heavyweights in the Green Bay Packers & number one draft pick Andrew Luck had a great game as he continues to look much more experienced than the rookie he is.

(Andrew Luck can continue to impress against the weakened Jets)

Although the Jets did only lose by 6 to maybe the best team in the league on Monday that was in part thanks to a 100 yard kick return & those don't come around too often, it also remains to be seen whether they can get themselves up for consecutive games as they've been abysmal at times. The Jets' injury problems remain & Mark Sanchez still looks a suspect passer & their running game continues to be ineffective with their number one runnig back Shonn Greene averagin just 2.9 yards per attempt. Indianapolis will be sending their star defender Dwight Freeney after Sanchez making it even more likely he'll chuck some passes up to be intercepted, Freeney was injured in week one & made a real difference on his return last week.

The Colts have been decent offensively with Luck's passing helping them rank 10th overall in yards gained & 6th in passing yards - he can also take off on the ground making him a very dangerous player & it means he's a good compliment to rusher Donald Brown who has a decent average yards per carry of 4.0. Reggie Wayne has been having a monstrous season with 506 receiving yards in just the 4 games & he'll look to beat Rodgers-Cromartie this week just like every other cornerback he's come up against. Other than their loss to Jacksonville the Colts have performed well considering they gained just two wins last year & they are underrated today, backing them with a useful 3.5 point lead on the handicap looks the way to go.

Selections:
Cincinnati Bengals to beat Cleveland Browns at 10/13 (Skybet & Paddy Power)
Indianapolis Colts to beat New York Jets with +3.5 points on handicap at 5/6 (Various)

NFL Thursday Night - Steelers can flatten Browns

Week 14 in the NFL begins with an AFC North divisional game with the Cleveland Browns travelling to face the Pittsburgh Steelers, it looks like a tough matchup for the Browns who've lost 5 of their last 6 & have injuries to key players. The Steelers meanwhile are starting to really roll having won 7 of their last 8 & won impressively against Cincinnati last week, we've our usual best bets below.

(The Steelers are making a championship push & running back Isaac Redman can play a part)

The Browns rank 30th in offensive yards, the Steelers have given up the least yards in offense. The Browns rank 31st defending the run, the Steelers have stepped up their running game in recent weeks averaging 116.3 yards in the last 3 games. The Browns have quarterback Colt McCoy playing with an injured knee this week & star player, back Peyton Hillis likely to be out, all of Pittsburgh's main weapons look fit, fresh & in form. Basically this looks bad for the Browns & great for the Steelers who know they have to keep up the pressure on Baltimore as they're currently tied atop the Division but the Ravens holding a tiebreaker by beating them twice already.

The Browns do have a good pass defense but it's made to look artificially better statistically due to their dreadful run defense as teams just keep running the ball straight through them & Pittsburgh will have joy in both disciplines. On the ground Rashard Mendenhall has been looking good with 8 touchdowns this year including a couple last week, he's backed up by the hard running Isaac Redman & between them they should get some nice yardage here. Ben Roethlisberger has a great set of receivers to throw to & has been particularly successful when going to Antonio Brown recently, we're expecting him to use his full set of catchers who are all fit & healthy minus Emmanuel Sanders. The Steelers have a great defense whose only weakness this year has been in not creating enough turnovers, that hasn't been too much of a problem when they keep making the opposition punt the ball & get the ball back that way, they really shouldn't be posed too many problems by Cleveland & this could be a touchdown shutout for the Browns offense. Even with the Browns decent defense we think that this could be a big win for Pittsburgh & they can cover the -14 point spread on their way to yet another win, we expect to see a nicely balanced offense & the usual great defense frustrate the Browns in every aspect of the game. For a nice value bet Isaac Redman is 25/1 to score the 1st touchdown & 9/2 with Ladbrokes to score at anytime, he's only one touchdown so far but has been handed the ball a few times in the redzone recently & looks a genuine contender especially at those prices!

Selections:
Pittsburgh Steelers to beat Cleveland Browns with -14 points at 10/11 (general)
Isaac Redman to score 1st touchdown at 25/1 (various) & to score touchdown at anytime at 9/2 (Ladbrokes)