AFC West
We'll start out with last year's tightest division where the Denver Broncos, San Diego Chargers & Oakland Raiders all ended with perfectly balanced 8&8 records & the Kansas City Chiefs only finished one off with a 7&9 win record.
(Eric Weddle will be reading quarterbacks' eyes as the Chargers look to master the AFC West)
The Oakland Raiders look to have too much trouble at quarterback to really capitalise on a decent defense & the excellent running game of Darren McFadden. Carson Palmer hasn't looked great in preseason & his two main receivers Jacoby Ford & Denarius Moore are both coming off of injuries, the Raider offense could really struggle in the opening weeks of the season. The Raiders will continue to excel on special teams on both sides of the ball & look for kicker Sebastian Janikowski to continue to put the ball through the posts from several miles away. the Kansas City Chiefs are a side expected to improve by many but they only scored 20 or more points on 4 occasions last year & need to pick up significantly & it remains to be seen whether Matt Cassel will be the answer at quarterback, he's expected to be the starter after returning from surgery on his hand. Cassel does have a top target at receiver in Dwayne Bowe & with Tony Moeaki coming in at tight end after missing the whole of his first season he could make a significant difference. The Chiefs also have plenty of depth at running back & it will be interesting to see if Dexter McCluster can continue to gain success as a hybrid running back/wide receiver, they do have a very good defense & we like Brandon Flowers at cornerback but we can't see them getting in the end zone enough & we'll look elsewhere for the division winners.
The San Diego Chargers are a talented but frustrating outfit who have thrown away opportunities for the past couple of seasons but we can get them at 21/10 to win the NFC West & we'll take that risk. Quarterback Philip Rivers had a poor season by his standards last year but still had a respectable passer rating of 88.7 (he'd been over 100 in his previous 3 seasons) & he's still a top QB for us & has an outstanding tight end in Antonio Gates to aim for. The Chargers have said goodbye to Vincent Jackson, their leading receiver last year though & youngster Vincent Brown has broken his ankle & will miss half the year. Robert Meachem has come in from the Saints though & along with Eddie Royal will look to offer options fro Rivers to pass to. Running Back Ryan Mathews also has a safe pair of hands in the passing game & hauled in 50 receptions last year whilst gaining over 1,000 yards on the ground in 14 games, he's out for the first 2-3 games with a broken collarbone but could have a huge year when he returns, Jackie Battle & Ronnie Brown should cover ably in his absence. The Chargers' main draft picks were all at defensive positions & Melvin Ingram & Kendall Reyes have already looked good in preseason & could both be starters this year. Eric Weddle will be lurking in the backfield hoping for another big year after 7 interceptions last year & overall we just feel the Chargers are a little better than their rivals this year & can push for 10+ wins in the season.
AFC North
The AFC North is traditionally just about the toughest division in football with the smashmouth game played by the teams meaning it is intense & physically demanding for all involved, last year the division produced 3 playoff teams as the Pittsburgh Steelers & Cincinnati Bengals joined division winners the Baltimore Ravens in the post season as wildcard qualifiers. Along with those three teams we have the Cleveland Browns who finished 4&12 last year & look like having another season of struggle as they look to build for the longer term.
(Ray Rice will continue to be the Ravens' top offensive weapon)
The Browns really should finish bottom of the pile again, 2007 was their last winning year & they have trouble at the quarterback position as they move promising youngster Colt McCoy back & bring rookie Brandon Weeden in as starter. Weeden was a first round draft pick & must have impressed in training & preseason, McCoy was probably never going to be a star but we felt he had potential & find it surprising he's already been shunted. The Browns traded up in the draft to also get running back Trent Richardson with just the 3rd overall pick & he's certainly a huge prospect & could have a big rookie year as the Browns look likely to run the ball often. The Browns only averaged 13.7 points per game in 2011 & conceded the 3rd most rushing yards in the league, they won't turn those stats around quickly enough this year & will struggle again.
The Bengals had a winning 9&7 record last year but you go back & look at the teams they beat & they were basically rubbish sides & they face a tougher schedule this year, it looks doubtful they'll get as many wins on the board in 2012. Cinci's defense is relatively solid but it was probably a wise move to go for a cornerback in the first round of the draft & the speedy Dre Kirkpatrick could make up into a top football player. On offense they basically have one awesome weapon & that is in A.J. Green who is starting his 2nd year in the NFL after a brilliant rookie year where he gained over 1,000 receiving yards catching from another rookie in QB Andy Dalton, they'll look to link up regularly again this year. On the ground the Bengals could struggle as we don't feel new recruit from the Patriots BenJarvus Green-Ellis is near elite running back status & overall we can't go near Cinci for division winners.
That leaves us with Pittsburgh & Baltimore, the two teams with the most animosity between them in football, whose defenses ranked 1st & 3rd respectively in 2011. The two games between these sides could well determine the winners in the AFC North & we have to wait until week 11 for the first at Pittsburgh with the 2nd following just two weeks later in Baltimore. The Steelers are favourites for the division but we have to admit to just not feeling it for the Black & Yellow this year even though they've recognised their weakness in the offensive line (who regularly fail to give Big Ben the protection he needs) & selected a guard & tackle as their first two draft picks. The O-line still looked shaky in preseason & without running back Rashard Mendenhall until later in the season you'd think their running game will suffer. Star receiver speedball Mike Wallace only reported in with the team a week or so ago after holding out on his contract & may take a couple fo weeks to get going, fortunately Antonio Brown has emerged as a top receiver & Emmanuel Sanders & tight end Heath Miller are dependable options. The Steeler defense will be outstanding as usual with strength against the run & pass, Troy Polamalu (safety) & James Harrison (linebacker) are the leaders of a physical & mean outfit. We just feel that the Ravens have fewer questions to answer than the Steelers & can beat them to top spot even though we think quarterback Joe Flacco is basically pretty poor for such a good team to have. The Ravens defense is amazing every year & veterans Ray Lewis & Ed Reed will be supported by an impressive set of players, they will however miss the injured Terrell Suggs (14 sacks in 2011) for the first 6 weeks of the season. On offense Ray Rice is one of the league's best running backs & had over 2,000 combined rushing & receiving yards in 2011, they've also got awesome deep threat receiver Anquan Boldin & 2nd season rookie Torrey Smith should improve upon a solid debut season. At odds of 8/5 (Pinnacle Sports) to win the AFC North we're on the Baltimore Ravens.
AFC East
(The Bills' Steve Johnson can gain a lot of receiving yards in 2012)
The AFC East may be along with the NFC West just about the least competitive division in the NFL in 2012, the New England Patriots have won this in 8 of the last 9 years & will do so again this season. The other three teams are pretty much jokes with the New York Jets looking unlikely to get the ball into the end zone with any regularity, the Buffalo Bills haven't had a winning season since 2004 & lost 8 of their last 9 games in 2011 & the Miami Dolphins first round quarterback pick Ryan Tannehill is already looking a liekly flop. New England have one of the finest quarterbacks of all time in Mr Perfect Tom Brady & he'll link up with last year's top receiver Wes Welker & tight ends Aaron Hernandez & Rob Gronkowski on numerous occasions for giant numbers. Stevan Ridley should graduate to starting running back & will do alright in terms of yards per play just because opposition teams will be so focused on stopping the pass. The Patriots secondary really isn't too good & they'll concede plenty of yards through the air but they don't seem to worry as they find it easy to score themselves, we think they might struggle offensively on road trips to the Ravens & Jets, & at home to the Texans & 49ers this year but they look to have a pretty easy schedule other than that & will be pushing for 12+ wins again.
Ever since the great Dan Marino retired the Dolphins have struggled at the passer position & Tannehill will be their 17th starting QB since Marino retired in 1999 & he's looked pretty ordinary in preseason & doesn't have a great set of receivers to pass to. It remains to be seen whether Reggie Bush can have another 1,000+ yard season at running back like in 2011 after joining from New Orleans, we've doubts he's durable enough & without the running game taking pressure off Tannehill, he could struggle even more. The Dolphins' defense ranked 3rd best against the rush last year but were much poorer against the pass ranking 25th, although they did give up yards they actually did well at limiting teams to field goals & were 6th best in points conceded, they haven't improved the defense in the off-season though & that will be tough to replicate.
The New York Jets have a top defense with cornerback Darrelle Revis able to shut down pretty much any receiver & overall they ranked 5th best in yards conceded per play, they will have to be even better at defense this year as the offense looks a shambles. We've never liked Mark Sanchez at quarterback, he's an outright choker in our opinion & it remains to be seen how he'll cope now that the Tim tebow circus has come to town after signing from Denver. Tebow is the backup to Sanchez for now but could see plenty of play in wildcat formations where he will have the option to pass or run, if Sanchez performs badly (which is likely) Tebow will push for that starting spot. Jeremy Kerley & Santonio Holmes will be joined at receiver by rookie Stephen Hill but they aren't a particularly good set of receivers even if Holmes is one of the most talented in the league he hasn't put it all in for the Jets & mightn't be a good fit. Shonn Greene is by himself at running back now that LaDanian Tomlinson has retired but he's another pretty ordinary player & could get tired out fairly early in the season as they'll look to him when they inevitably can't pass the ball.
The Bills are a side due to improve & the signing of star defensive end Mario Williams from the Texans could really be a shrewd move if he can stay fit, he's joined as well by Mark Anderson who gained 10 sacks for the Patriots last year. The Bills were OK offensively last year (13th rushing & 15th passing) but ranked only 26th on defense so an upgrade there was essential, they've made it & it should make a difference as Williams & Anderson alone will make running more difficult & also get to the quarterback with regularity. Fred Jackson will be back at running back after a fractured leg & he'll be key, he was having a great season up until his injury & after it the Bills only won one more game in 2011. Ryan Fitzpatrick needs to step up this season at quarterback if the Bills aren't to start thinking about replacing him but it's possible for him to improve & he has a bona fide top receiver in Steve Johnson to throw to, he should end up with another 1,000+ receiving yards this time around. All in all we like Sportingbet's offer of 2/1 for the Bills to secure 2nd spot in the NFC East, 1st is out of reach but the Jets look in trouble & the Dolphins basically poor.
AFC South
(J.J. Watt is one of the best young defenders around & will be adding to the Texans' sack total)
Finally we come to the AFC South & our fancies for outright Super Bowl glory in the Houston Texans, we liked the Texans' chances last year but they were derailed by some hugely unfortunate injuries to key players & they can be luckier in 2012. The other sides in the division look like fighting it out for 2nd & they aren't the most inspiring bunch, the Indianapolis Colts were unbelievably poor without Peyton Manning (injured) last year & finished with a league worst two wins. The Jacksonville Jaguars can't really pass the ball & have had problems with their star player Maurice Jones-Drew & the Tennessee Titans have a pretty svere schedule & an uncertain quarterback position.
The Colts dreadful season in 2011 has meant they were able to draft the best quarterback prospect in many years in Andrew Luck & he has shown no signs of letting down those who've predicted him to become an NFL great. Luck looks a fully formed NFL quarterback but the Colts have a lot of work to do in other positions before they can start thinking about winning seasons & playoff charges. Reggie Wayne is still the Colt's biggest weapon at receiver but he'll be 34 in November & whether he has another top season in him is in the balance. The Colts are ordinary at best at running back & that means Luck won't get much respite with an awful lot falling on his shoulders whilst the defense only ranked 25th last season in yards given up. Dwight Freeney & Robert Mathis should still get plenty of sacks for the Colts this year but overall they're in a period of rebuilding & should just be aiming to get a few more wins on the board in 2012.
We haven't a lot of love for the Tennessee Titans this year especially as we're unconvinced running back Chris Johnson can get back to his incredible form from 2009, he's by far & away their best offensive weapon if at his best but his form has been sporadic in the last two seasons. The Titans have announced they're going for Jake Locker as starting quarterback but he'll likely take a bit of time to really get up to speed & there are still questions around his accuracy. The Titans have drafted a player we really like in receiver Kendall Wright, who was Robert Griffin III's main target at Baylor, he'll bolster a receiving corps that already have Kenny Britt & give Locker at least two potent targets to hit. On defense the Titans are merely ordinary & don't come up with enough big plays, gaining just 28 sacks (2nd worst) & 11 interceptions in 2011, they've done little to improve in 2012. The Jaguars meanwhile were dreadful through the air last year & ranked stone last in offensive yards gained even though they had the league's leading rusher in Maurice Jones-Drew, he still hasn't reported into the team & they could be pathetic offensively without him. Defensively the Jags are a very good outfit & ranked 6th last year but it won't be enough to make up for their offense. We like the drafting of top receiving prospect Justin Blackmon & they've signed Laurent Robinson who was phenomenal for the Cowboys last year after starting the year as cover at the receiver position, of course if Blaine Gabbert keeps throwing like he has done it won't matter how good those two are - the Jags are going to fail to score very often at all.
(Arian Foster is the man to lead the Texans to the promised land & Super Bowl glory 2012)
So we move onto the Texans & we think they have an outstanding chance this season with some of the top individual players in the league at key positions, depth & good coaching. Arian Foster is just about there as the NFL's best running back, he's explosive & can break off huge runs yet still pick his way through when down by the goal line & is potent out of the backfield too (as 617 receiving yards in 2011 shows). In such a quarterback focused league (4 of the 6 highest passing totals were achieved in 2011) it might just be that the selectors have a bit of a rethink this year & opt to stay away from the passers & if that happens Arian Foster has a distinct possibility of being picked for Most Valuable Player & Coral offer odds of 18/1. Away from Foster the Texans have one of the best receivers in the league in Andre Johnson, the only worry with him is whether he can prove durable enough after only making 7 games last year with hamstring problems - in his 3 seasons prior he had receiving yards of 1,569, 1,575 & 1,216 showing how brilliant he can be.
On defense the Texans ranked 2nd overall last year & felt confident enough to let Mario Williams join the Bills this year, J.J. Watt was dominant in his rookie year & should improve again while Brooks Reed & Bryan Cushing will be scary again as linebackers. The Texans played with 3rd choice passer T.J. Yates for their last 6 games yet were still able to win half of those games & a playoff game before only falling to the Ravens thanks in part to one of the worst playoff mistakes seen from punt returner Jacoby Jones (who happens to have signed for the Ravens now). With passer Matt Schaub back & feeling healthy, he looked assured in preseason, the Texans surely have what it takes to progress this year & odds of 12/1 for the Super Bowl are too big for a side that have every potential to put up a big win record secure home field advantage for the playoffs.
Selections:
San Diego Chargers to win AFC West at 21/10 (Stan James)
Baltimore Ravens to win AFC North at 8/5 (Pinnacle Sports)
Buffalo Bills to finish 2nd in AFC East at 2/1 (Sportingbet)
Houston Texans to win the Super Bowl at 12/1 (Bodog & Youwin)
Arian Foster to be NFL MVP at 18/1 (Coral)
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