We fear for the St Louis Rams as they visit the Detroit Lions in their noisy Ford Field stadium on Sunday evening, this is a side that managed just two wins in 2011 up against a team that finished 10&6 with their only failures came against the elite sides of the NFC. To sum up the difference in class between these two teams look at the total points they scored in 2011, there were a huge 474 points for Detroit (4th overall) & just 193 on the board for St Louis (a league worst 32nd) - it seems inconceivable that the Rams can even get close here.
(What a player. What a man. What a MEGATRON! Calvin Johnson for the Detroit Lions)
The Lions have one of the most potent offenses in the NFL with quarterback Matt Stafford prepared to air it out against anyone & he has probably the league's best receiver in 'Megatron' Calvin Johnson as his main receiver. In addition to Johnson they also have a top ight end in Brandon Pettigrew & Titus Young at wide receiver, Young had a very good rookie season but the whisper is that he looked great in practice & is ready to have a breakout year. The Lions do have problems at running back as first choice Jahvid Best has worryingly still jot yet been cleared after suffering concussion symptoms in late November of 2011, they remain confident he will be cleared at some point but for now Kevin Smith will lead the line. They're pretty good on defense too with the dominating Ndamukong Suh being the leader, he's violently excellent & will look to rough up the Rams offensive line as he aims to get to Sam Bradford. Suh is joined by Kyle Vanen Bosch to form an ace pass rush & we love the big play potential of cornerback Chris Houston who has returend 3 of his 9 interceptions for touchdowns.
The Rams are under a new coach as owner Stan Kroenke (also Arsenal's major shareholder) has brought in long time Tennessee head coach Jeff Fisher & they will be desperate for improvement. However new coaching means new plays & schemes & it could take a while before we see any real progress from St Louis. Sam Bradford is a talented if maybe somewhat fragile quarterback, it doesn't help that his offensive line isn't good enough at protecting him & his receiver corps is amongst the weakest in the league. The Rams do have a good tailback in Steven Jackson & a lot of their offense will rest on him again & we like the improvement they've made at defensive tackle selecting the huge Michael Brockers in the first round of the draft & bringing in Kendall Langford from Miami. St Louis look to have way too much to do in this one & the Detroit Lions can cover the -7.5 point handicap with ease. Paddy Power are also going a standout 11/2 about Calvin Johnson to grab the first touchdown, it looks an excellent bet for the receiver who gained 16 last year & also had one from his only reception in their last preseason game.
(The Miami Dolphins aren't very good but their defense is & they could frustrate the Texans)
Our Super Bowl fancies the Houston Texans look to start off at their home of their Reliant Stadium with a nice gentle one against the rather hapless Miami Dolphins. The Miami Dolphins actually had a pretty mean defense last year ranking 6th in terms of points given up & 3rd overall against the run, that is a huge plus when you have to come up against the Texans' indomitable running back Arian Foster. Along with the Broncos (who had running QB Tim Tebow), Houston ran the ball more than any other team with over 34 attempts a game, with Foster ably backed up by Ben Tate, if they try the same tactics here the Dolphins are a side that can potentially slow them down but not stop them. The Texans are unlikely to run quite so much now that they have starting quarterback Matt Schaub fit & he looked pretty sharp in preseason, he'll have one of the league's best deep threats in star receiver Andre Johnson & emerging wide receivers Lestar Jean & DeVier Posey should also offer options.
We've no optimism that the Dolphins will have sorted their offensive problems this season with the installation of promising rookie Ryan Tannehill as starting quarterback, even if Tannehill performs he really doesn't have the weapons at receiver or tight end to pass to. The Dolphins also aren't great at running back - Reggie Bush has done well since joining from New Orleans but he's basically been disappointing as a pro after being selected 2nd overall in 2006, it remains touch & go whether his knees will hold out for a full season. Even if the Dolphins did have a decent attack trying to implement that against the Texans outstanding D just wouldn't be simple, they're strong at the line & with their defensive backs too & will shut down plenty of sides this year. The total points line has been set at 42.5 in this game but that looks too high, in 2011 both sides had 11 of their 16 regular season games going under 43 points & there's no reason to think it will be different here.
(Touchdown 'Vulture' Michael Bush will be looking to pick up the pieces for the Chicago Bears)
We love some of the value available in the touchdown scorers markets & away from our two games we like the look of Michael Bush for the Chicago Bears. Matt Forte is the Bears main man but they do like to protect him when they get around the goal line & he only actually got 4 touchdowns last year (3 rushing & 1 receiving), they often went to big Marion Barber last year but he's retired & they've brought in Michael Bush from the Oakland Raiders. Bush is renowned for his ability down near the goal line & gained 8 TDs in both 2010 & 2011, with the way the Bears play he is just too big at 11/1 to score first.
Selections:
Detroit Lions to beat St Louis Rams with a -7.5 point handicap at 10/11 (General)
Calvin Johnson to score first touchdown in St Louis Rams v Detroit Lions game at 11/2 (Paddy Power)
Miami Dolphins v Houston Texans under 42.5 points at 10/11 (General)
Michael Bush to score first touchdown in Indianapolis Colts v Chicago Bears game at 11/1 (Ladbrokes)
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