(Evergreen Tony Gonzalez can celebrate another touchdown for Atlanta on their way to a clear victory over Minnesota)
The Atlanta Falcons are in a battle with New Orleans to secure 1st place in the NFC South & will be wanting to press their claims when they host the Minnesota Vikings who are floundering in the tough NFC North with just two wins all season & that was against poor sides in Arizona & Carolina. At the Georgia Dome the Falcons are a pretty scary team to face, they have lost twice at home this year but that was hosting Green Bay & New Orleans, they've only conceded over 20 points in one of their last five games after some slightly suspect defensive displays early on in the season, that improvement spells trouble for a Vikings side that rank 23rd in points scored. The Vikings will do well to get anything going offensively as their star player running back Adrian Peterson looks to be doubtful for the game & their passing game only ranks 28th in yards gained. Defensively Minnesota are very average & they don't tend to create many turnover opportunities, the Falcons have a great balanced offense & will look to take advantage with Michael Turner in the running game & by passing to Roddy White & Tony Gonzalez. Tight end Gonzalez is now 35 but is playing outstanding football as he has been since 1997, he's Matt Ryan's favourite target in the end zone & the Vikings give up more passing than rushing touchdowns, with 7 touchdowns already Gonzalez looks ace value to score the 1st touchdown at 7/1. With Peterson out it really is difficult to see how Minnesota can hurt the home side & Atlanta can cover the -8.5 point handicap on offer at Boylesports with ease.
For our second bet we're going to keep things exceedingly simple, the St. Louis Rams have scored a league worst 12 points per game & opponents the Arizona Cardinals just 19 a game (24th best), neither side is too bad defensively & this looks sure to be a very low scoring game, the under 39.5 total points should be taken at odds of 10/11. The sides met in week 9 & there were 32 points total, that included overtime & there's no reason to suggest it will be different here, since then the Cardinals have been in games with 38 & 30 points & St. Louis in games with 25 & 31, neither side have a chance of getting to the playoffs & this could & hopefully will be a very dull affair.
(Top rookie Ben Tate can sprint into the end zone for the Texans against the Jaguars)
Our Super Bowl fancies the Houston Texans suffered dreadful news after their big win at Tampa Bay with quarterback Matt Schaub ruled out for the season with a foot injury that needs to be operated on. Fortunately the Texans running game has been excellent, unsurprising as they have a total star in Arian Foster & he has been backed up by rookie Ben Tate who has had a very good first season, scoring 3 touchdowns already with two of those coming in the last two games. The Texans have great receivers especially with Andre Johnson coming back to fitness but with backup quarterback Matt Leinart now playing they will want to keep things simple & take the pressure off him by running the ball more, that should mean that Tate is even more involved & Ladbrokes offer a standout 14/1 for Tate to score the 1st touchdown plus 21/10 that he scores at anytime.
Selections:
Atlanta Falcons to beat Minnesota Vikings with -8.5 points (Boylesports)
Tony Gonzalez to score 1st Touchdown at 7/1 (various) in Minnesota Vikings v Atlanta Falcons game
Arizona Cardinals v St. Louis Rams to be under 39.5 points at 10/11 (General)
Ben Tate to score 1st Touchdown at 14/1 & to score at anytime at 21/10 (Ladbrokes) in Houston Texans v Jacksonville Jaguars game
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