(Doing it for the ladies - Havre De Grace can win the Classic for the fairer sex)
The Breeders' Cup Turf over a mile & a half is the race where European challengers have had most success & it's understandable as American horses tend to be bred to race on dirt & the distance is considered to be an extreme for most of their horses whilst considered middle distance in Europe & the premier races are over this same distance (the Arc & the King George VI). Sir Michael Stoute has been the most successful trainer in the race with 4 winners including Conduit doubling up in 2009 & 2010, he can add to his impressive record with Sea Moon the Beat Hollow colt that went off a warm favourite for the St Leger before finishing a somewhat disappointing 3rd. Sea Moon had looked imperious when winning the Great Voltigeur on his only try at this distance on just his 4th start & was given a less than glorious ride by Olivier Peslier in the St Leger who should have reacted earlier in the 14 furlong race when his mount was boxed in. We felt that Sea Moon would almost certainly have gone very close to winning with a better run with his galloping style needing him to be unwound from some way out, we certainly felt he'd have got closer than many pundits were willing to give credence to shortly after the race in maybe some attempt to make the winner Masked Marvel look better. As one of just two 3 year olds Sea Moon gets a weight allowance & can use that to beat super fillies Midday & Sarafina, Midday is a great type but does best against her own sex & Sarafina needs to bounce back from finishing 7th in the Arc. Await The Dawn has no proven form to suggest that it should be winning at this level & supposedly came close to death after flopping in the Juddmonte (we advised to lay for a place that day), we can barely believe the price that Aidan O'Brien's charge is at. Sea Moon can emulate great horses such as Daylami by winning the turf at generous odds of 9/2.
(America's top turf horse Gio Ponti can take the Mile)
Goldikova has won the Breeders Cup Mile for the last 3 years & will be bidding for her 15th Group One win here but we think there are good reasons to oppose Freddie Head's wonder mare this time. She's been beaten three times this year, albeit against good horses, but there hasn't been quite the sparkle of the past couple of years & although there's no shame in that to be winning Breeders' Cup races a horse needs to be at it's best. Goldikova's chief challengers look to be Byword, Richard Hannon's Strong Suit & the globe trotting Gio Ponti. Christophe Clement's charge has raced over various distances between a mile & a mile & a half but may just be best at the flat 8 furlongs distance & has a great shout at the odds of 10/1 with William Hill. Gio Ponti is a 6 year old now but looked as good as ever when winning the Shadwell Turf Mile at Keeneland for the 2nd year running in a pretty quick time, he finished 2nd to Goldikova in the race last year but as discussed she doesn't look quite so special & Gio Ponti can go one better under super jockey Ramon Dominguez.
The feature race the Breeders Cup Classic sees last year's brilliant Breeders' Cup Juvenile winner Uncle Mo try to complete a comeback from a serious liver disease & live up to his brilliant promise as a 2 year old. Uncle Mo would certainly have a chance if fully recovered from his terrible illness but there remains a suspicion that it must have taken something out of him on a permanent basis & he has to be opposed here. So You Think was a superstar in Australia & has won 3 Group Ones for Aidan O'Brien although the strength of those wins is somewhat open to question, the Tattersalls Gold Cup was certainly Group One in name only although the Antipodean did win in style. He's been kept very busy this year with a couple of races in October, coming 4th in the Arc then 2nd in the Champion Stakes two weeks later, he's certainly tough but has enough questions to answer just on the quality front, let alone taking into account the taking up of blinkers again & his 1st try at the surface. The horse we like is 4 year old filly Havre De Grace who is attempting to take the same route as her sire Saint Liam by winning the Woodward Stakes & following up in the Classic. The Woodward Stakes has been the best trial for the classic with other winners including race record holder Ghostzapper, Curlin & the incomparable Cigar. The Woodward was the first time that Havre De Grace had faced male competition but she was very impressive & looks to be a ferocious match for any of the runners in the Classic this year, her trainer J.Larry Jones is especially good with fillies & mares & he looks to have a great one here, Havre De Grace can prove victorious at odds of 5/1.
Selections:
Breeders' Cup Turf - Sea Moon at 9/2 (several)
Breeders' Cup Mile - Gio Ponti at 10/1 with William Hill
Breeders' Cup Classic - Havre De Grace at 5/1 with Coral & Sportingbet
No comments:
Post a Comment