Lions can celebrate Thanksgiving by feasting on Packers defense

It's Thanksgiving in the States & that means that we have three NFL games this Thursday to start week 12 that has every team in action now they've all had their bye weeks. The Thursday night games look pretty tasty with the league leading Green Bay Packers & San Francisco 49ers both in action hoping to keep up the pace in the NFC. We had 4 out of 5 winning bets on Sunday including Marion Barber to score the first touchdown in the Bears game at odds of 10/1, we're looking to keep pounding the bookmakers with our best bets here.

 (Awesome Aaron Rodgers may meet his match against the Detroit Lions pass rush)

There's no doubt about it, the Green Bay Packers are the most exciting team in football right now having gone unbeaten through the first 10 games & having posted 42 points more than any other team, they also rank 3rd worst in terms of yards given up on defense per game meaning there've been plenty of high scoring encounters, they now take on the 7&3 Detroit Lions who rank 3rd in total points (54 behind Green Bay) & that porous defense could lead to their first loss here. The Lions have been attempting over 40 passes a game & Matt Stafford has thrown 20 touchdowns to 8 inreceptions, he has the league's best receiver to throw to in Calvin Johnson & he will want to take advantage of the Packers who've conceded 18 passing touchdowns, at 7/1 he looks a nice price to get the first touchdown. The Packers defense is certainly explosive as they lead the league with 19 interceptions but that is partly due to teams having to throw hopeful passes against them when trailing & they've let 46 passing plays of 20+ yards - it all points to a big day for Stafford & Johnson.

The Lions have been pretty solid defensively ranking 9th best in yards allowed plus have been able to make plenty of plays with 15 interceptions, 27 sacks & 9 forced fumbles (recovering 8 of those 9), they will need to be on top form against the Packers Aaron Rodgers because he's been exceptional all season with an insanely high passer rating of 130.7 (the NFL record season sits at 121.1). Fortunately their strength is against the pass, ranking 5th in yards allowed, they have the ability to get pressure on any quarterback which is key to having a chance at stopping Rodgers & Cliff Avril, Kyle Vanden Bosch & Ndamukong Suh will all be hunting him down in this one. In the Lions secondary cornerback Chris Houston has stepped his game up with 4 picks this year & has returned two for touchdowns, Rodgers may have thrown just 3 interceptions in the 10 games so far but he'll be made to hurry more in this game & if he gets too ambitious the Lions will be waiting to pounce. It's fair that the Packers are favourites for this one but their odds seem a little skinny as they are away in one of the loudest venues in the league & that will make it dificult to execute plays & the Lions can get to the quarterback, Rodgers has been sacked 23 times already, at odds of 5/2 the Detroit Lions are the value pick to end the Packers unbeaten run.

(The San Francisco 49ers defense plus Frank Gore's running game can punish the Ravens)

The San Francisco 49ers travel to face the Baltimore Ravens who have won all of their home games so far but may not keep that going in this one against San Francisco who are 9&1 on the year. Other than having played the Steelers & Texans, Baltimore seem to have had one of the softest schedules available, ok they beat Pittsburgh twice which is very impressive but those big rivalry games can be more passion than great football & they've lost to very ordinary (at best) teams in Seattle, Tennessee & Jacksonville. We'vbe mentioned before that we're not Joe Flacco fans & that hasn't changed, he'll struggle against a top defense that only rank averagely in passing yards given up because teams abandon the run against them. That's a problem for the Ravens as when Flacco has one of his regular trash games they can normally go to the hugely reliable & basically excellent running back Ray Rice but here against the 49ers huge, dominant run defense that isn't desirable. On the 49ers offense quarterback Alex Smith has been a model of efficiency with 64% completion & just 3 interceptions, his favourite target Vernon Davis has 5 touchdowns already & Michael Crabtree has performed well too but their real strength is running the ball & Frank Gore can again prove difficult to stop, he's already had 870 rushing yards & is a real bull of a player. This is a game between two very good defenses & bearing that in mind it looks sensible to take the 49ers receiving +3.5 points on the handicap in a tight one where field goals could be important.

Selections:
Detroit Lions to beat Green Bay Packers at 5/2 (Ladbrokes)
Calvin Johnson to score 1st Touchdown at 7/1 in Detroit Lions v Green Bay Packers game (Boylesports & William Hill)
San Francisco 49ers to beat Baltimore Ravens with +3.5 points on the handicap at 5/6 (various)