(Joe Flacco could be in for a long day against the Steelers defense)
In week one the Baltimore Ravens destroyed the Pittsburgh Steelers at home, winning 35-7 & after a wobble in week 2 when losing at Tennessee were looking the real deal & real Super Bowl contenders, however after abysmal offensive displays against the Jets & Jaguars plus a dreadful first half against Arizona last week they look mightily vulnerable especially when matched up against an elite defense like Pittsburgh's. Quarterback Joe Flacco has never convinced in these quarters & his game seems to have fallen apart recently, he threw for 3 touchdowns in that week one game but has thrown just 5 in the 6 games since & has been directly responsible for 10 of the Ravens 13 turnovers with four fumbles & six intereptions thrown, against the Steelers top ranked pass defense he will surely struggle & the Ravens will go to their run game. Ray Rice is a phenomenal running back & the Steelers vulnerability is definitely when rushed against with them giving up 4.4 yards per run, but whenever a team become predictable they become easy to play against & we expect to see plenty of run blitzes to stop Rice for minimal yardage, Troy Polamalu should be given free reign to come up to the line of scrimmage & could make some big plays. Of course the Ravens defense is awesome with Ray Lewis & Ed Reed being their leaders & they've both been great despite their ages but even they will get worn down if their offense has to keep punting the ball or give away turnovers meaning the defense will stay on the field for a hell of a time.
(Sweet 17 - Speedball Mike Wallace can score for the Steelers on their way to victory)
From that opening day loss the Steelers have really kicked on, culminating in thier impressive win against the much fancied New England Patriots last week, they kept a superstar quarterback in check there & will find it easier against Flacco. Time management will be key for the Steelers & they've done well so far this year ranking 5th in number of 1st downs gained per game, they aren't the greatest rushing offense but they have a brilliantly balanced set of receivers & Ben Rothelisberger has been completing 64.4% of his passes this year (compared to Flacco's 53.8%). Heinz Ward has the toughness to get the short inside passes, knowing he's going to get hit but still holding onto the ball, Mike Wallace provides a potent threat out wide with his incredible speed & 2nd season players Antonio Brown & Emmanuel Sanders are really starting to impress, Sanders has been especially good in the last two weeks. Wallace already has 5 touchdowns for the season & has exactly 100 receiving yards per game, the Ravens don't tend to double cover so he should get receptions in this one & at 7/1 to score the 1st touchdown & a great 10/11 to score anytime looks the man to side with. The Steelers can move the ball up the field with so many options as they have a genuine deep threat the Ravens severely lack, they can guard against the run & short to medium passes safe in the knowledge that even if Flacco manages to get a pass off it's likely to lack accuracy & he doen't have great receivers to throw to other than Anquan Boldin who rarely gets deep these days. Past contests have tended to be tight & low-scoring but now that Pittsburgh have largely moved away from the run they are able to put points on the board more quickly & they'll want to punish Baltimore, they are at home, in better form & have more offensive weapons, the Steelers only have to give away -3 points on the handicap meaning if they do only win by a field goal you can have your stake returned, we envisage them winning by more than that & they must be backed.
(Cornerback Brandon Flowers can help shut down Miami's offense for Kansas City)
We aren't big Kansas City Chiefs fans here but compared to the dreadful winless Miami Dolphins they are the best team in the history of football, the Dolphins lost to the Tim Tebow led Broncos two weeks ago - Tebow led! Miami have gone creditably close in their last two games but the Giants had an aberration last week, maybe underestimating (is that possible?) the Dolphins before coming through with the win, the week before they took it overtime before losing to Tebow & the Broncos but basically they have a weak team & looking at their schedule will do well to win a game at all this year. They're unsettled at quarterback with Matt Moore having taken over from Chad Henne but neither are very good, letting Ronnie Brown leave in the off season certainly seems to have affected their running game & Reggie Bush has never looked like the type to be able to take every rushing play. The Dolphins could be in particular trouble this week with centre Mike Pouncey's status being questionable, that will affect the offensive line massively & may allow the Chiefs defensive line to penetrate & get to the quarterback & Reggie Bush before he can take off. The Chiefs started by losing their first three games & looking pretty bad in the first two, that was against the Bills & Lions though, teams having successful seasons, once taking on lower class opposition they did the business winning against the Colts, Vikings, unsettled at quarterback Raiders & then the Chargers last week with an upset win. They've adapted to losing key players & Dwayne Bowe has been great at wide receiver with Steve Breaston providing plenty of threat too, at running back they've been using three players & with some success, Jackie Battle, Dexter McCluster & Thomas Jones have all been getting touches meaning they stay fresh & are difficult to predict. The Chiefs have been missing top tight end Tony Moeaki, he's out for the season, which is understandable but they should have more than enough to give the Dolphins a beat down at home & can cover the -4 point handicap.
Selections:
Pittsburgh Steelers to beat Baltmiore Ravens with -3 points at 5/6 (various)
Mike Wallace to score 1st touchdown at 7/1 (various) & anytime at 10/11 with Paddy Power
Kansas City Chiefs to beat Miami Dolphins with -4 points at 20/21 with Sportingbet
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