Royal Ascot 2013 - Pick the Rite one in Gold Cup

Tuesday's Royal Ascot was a big let down for us with Animal Kingdom completely flopping in the Queen Anne (no explanation for the poor show has been forthcoming) & Reckless Abandon hanging in the latter stages of the King's Stand. It was certainly a disappointing start but Thursday is Gold Cup day & the UK's premier race for stayers looks to offer some value whilst we also think an outsider could outrun its odds in the Britannia Stakes.

3.45 Royal Ascot - Gold Cup

An outstanding showing of 18 runners for this Group One event over two & a half miles & 11 of the runners have official ratings of 112 upwards to show the strength in depth of the race. That strength in depth means you can get 6/1 for the favourite (likely to be the Queen's filly Estimate) & plenty of nice prices elsewhere in the field & we like the 7/1 available about the hugely talented, unfortunately fragile, former winner Rite Of Passage.

(Rite Of Passage is tenacious & classy - what's not to like?)

Dermot Weld's 9 year old won the race in game fashion on today's good to firm ground in 2010 yet has only made it to the track twice since, once in 2011 & again just once in 2012 when winning at the track in October against a high quality field. From just five true flat runs (ignoring bumper races) Rite Of Passage has won 4 races & finished 3rd the other time (to the awesome Fame And Glory) - that's some record & the horse, thankfully, doesn't take much racing so looks likely to put up a serious challenge here.

We're not too keen on Estimate's chances although she's clearly a very nice filly & she gets allowances both for her age & gender meaning she gets 5 pounds off the older horses. We just think that the ground may be against her as sire Monsun tends to get horses with a nice round action that go better with a little cut in the ground & her most impressive display came on soft ground when destroying the field last year here in the Queen's Vase. Her price may just be a little shorter than it should be thanks to her owner (remember all the hype with Carlton House?) & we fear others more including Opinion Poll & Francois Doumen's Top Trip who could come good over this testing trip.

With a proposed run out at the Curragh cancelled the build up to the race could have been better for Rite Of Passage but there's no better horse in the race so odds of 7/1 look very fair indeed & warrant a decent wager.

4.25 Royal Ascot - Britannia Stakes

There's no doubt about it, our next selection is a risky one but how could it be anything else in a 30 runner, one mile charge up the straight course? The pick is Ebn Arab at odds of 40/1 so that risk also offers a potentially hefty reward.

(Charlie Hills sends out Ebn Arab for the Brittania Handicap)

Charlie Hills' charge has looked imperious in wins at York (on debut) & Doncaster (seasonal debut) but has disappointed in his other three, admittedly fairly hot, races. Those wins came when the ground was pretty quick & that's what we think could make the difference here with the Dixie Union colt bred to appreciate a rattlingly quick surface & clearly not handling the step up in trip, stiff finish & soft ground at Sandown last time out. At Doncaster he seemed to enjoy travelling with a bit of cover, even though only a four runner affair, & should be able to find some cover in this big field & if settling could be on a very nice mark of 100 as we had the impression of a pattern performer before his blowout last time.

There are plenty of questions to answer & lots of opposition but Bet365 offer 5 places & odds of 40/1 about Ebn Arab & those terms are tempting enough to advise an each way bet.

Selections:
3.45 Royal Ascot - Rite Of Passage to win at 7/1 (Various)
4.25 Royal Ascot - Ebn Arab each way at 40/1 (Bet365 1/4 odds 5 places)

Royal Ascot 2013 - Just can't resist the Animal Magnetism

Royal Ascot is just about the creme de la creme of British flat racing with other meetings such as Newmarket's Champions Day offering up some top class racing but not being able to match the quantity & quality of Ascot's racing year after year. With the usual reasonable selection of international challengers 2013 looks likely to throw up some great races & give a good indication of just how good some of the home trained stars really are.

2.30 - Queen Anne Stakes

Kicking off the meeting are three Group Ones in a row & the first race may well see the best horse the meeting has to offer as it features US challenger Animal Kingdom, the 2011 Kentucky Derby winner & this year's convincing Dubai World Cup winner.

(Beautiful beast Animal Kingdom can prove too classy in the opener)

This really doesn't have to be a long preview to convince anyone that Animal Kingdom is the beast to back, last year was a difficult one with training difficulties meaning trainer Graham Motion could get just 2 runs under the horses belt; one in February & then much later in the year with a very creditable 2nd in the always high class Breeders' Cup Mile where top European miler Excelebration was in behind. Animal Kingdom hasn't ever won at a distance as short as a mile & that is a slight concern but lack of pace isn't a problem as evidenced when tearing up the final half mile of the Kentucky Derby in a time only bettered by all-time great Secretariat.

Far less of a concern to Animal Kingdom backers are his rivals here with maybe only a couple of the other challengers looking like genuine Group One contenders. Elusive Kate certainly deserves her place in the lineup & John Gosden's filly is twice a winner at the top level already as well as being placed at Group One level another 4 times & she is an extremely solid each way bet especially if the favourite were to underperform. Other than Elusive Kate we like the look of the progressive older horse Trade Storm; a horse that really flourished in Dubai this winter & ended up starting favourite for the Dubai Duty Free on World Cup night. David Simcock's 5 year old makes more appeal than Aidan O'Brien's Declaration Of War, that one started a ludicrously priced 5/4 favourite for the Lockinge in early May after Group 3 & Listed race wins against mediocre (for the grade) opposition, & was promptly swept aside & finished a well back 5th.

At Evens it's well worth siding with Animal Kingdom to show its class & win here & add his name to an illustrious roll of honour that inlcudes, over the past 3 years: Paco Boy; Canford Cliffs; Goldikova & Frankel. Comfortable on all surfaces & able to run well without too much racing he's by far the best horse in the race on form & that's borne out by the fact he's 10 pounds clear on official ratings - get on!

3.05 - King's Stand Stakes

As one of the 10 races in the Global Sprint Challenge the King's Stand & has seen numerous international challengers take the prize (6 times in the last 8 runnings) & that helps explain why South African raider Shea Shea is a warm favourite to win here.

(5 furlong champion claims await Clive Cox's Reckless Abandon if he can win here)

Shea Shea was certainly impressive in Dubai last time out, taking the Al Quoz Sprint & setting a track record in the process but two races before that didn't run his race at all & finihsed 7th to one of today's rivals Medicean Man. We like Medicean Man a lot but he's probably not a true Group One horse & it may be that Shea Shea just needed the run there, he's been off the track now for nearly 3 months & if he thrives with racing this might be a little too competitive to trust his fitness at short odds.

The selection for us has to be Reckless Abandon who was challenging up with Dawn Approach as the most exciting & impressive juvenile of 2012 with 5 wins from 5 starts & two Group 2's & two Group One's in the mix. Chucked in at the deep end against older horses on his first start this season Clive Cox's 3 year old ran a fine race in defeat in Haydock's Group 2 Temple Stakes, he raced on the unfavoured side of the track there & had a Group One penalty to contend with yet finished just a neck & a head behind the winner when claiming 3rd.

With a run just about 4 weeks ago under his belt Reckless Abandon should be spot on for this, 5 furlongs looks the horse's ideal distance (we think) & odds of 5/1 even allow each way betting for the timid amongst us - we think a win bet will suffice though & a small forecast with the impressive last time out Spirit Quartz could be a fun bet too.

Selections:
2.30 - Queen Anne Stakes - Animal Kingdom to win at Evens (General)
3.05 - King's Stand Stakes - Reckless Abandon to win at 5/1 (Boylesports, StanJames & 888Sport)
3.05 - King's Stand Stakes - Reckless Abandon to beat Spirit Quartz forecast

Ebn Arab to outclass Sandown rivals

We've kind of been on an unofficial break here at LikeBuyingMoney central but it's been for a reason with us not being able to identify an awful lot of value in the domestic football markets during the season run in with some of the market over-reactions seen inprevious years maybe not quite so evident. We're back here with a horse racing pick before the Oaks & Derby at Epsom this Friday & Saturday & are quietly confident that this is a pretty good one on the best evening racing of the year here in the UK.

8.20 Sandown - Heron Stakes

We clocked Ebn Arab's potential right from the start when particularly taken with the Dixie Union colt's debut win when taking a 7 furlong maiden at York by 5 lengths & getting considerably better as the race went on. Trainer Charlie Hills clearly thought his horse had talent as Ebn Arab was put into Group 3 company on his next two outings when filling the 4th spot both times but up behind some pretty good horses, in the first race, York's Acomb Stakes, Dundonnell & Steeler finished 1st & 2nd & have last raced with respective ratings of 113 & 112 so are very useful types.

(Paul Hanagan will hope to get another winner up for Sheikh Hamdan Al Maktoum)

It's fair to say that Ebn Arab didn't look a world beater in those 2nd & 3rd runs even taking into account the step up in class but his runs just didn't match up to debut as he weakened late on in the latter races when it seemed he excelled in the maiden the further it went. On seasonal debut nearly 4 weeks ago Ebn Arab slammed rivals rated 95 & 105 by 3&1/4 lengths & 5 lengths respectively with a very smooth victory that seemed to suggest he'd trained on well.

The main rivals here look to be Richard Hannon's Montiridge & William Haggas's Queensbury Rules & both have form linked in with this past weekend's Irish 2,000 Guineas. Montiridge finished a close 2nd to the Irish 2,000 Guineas 3rd Trading Leather last year but was disappointing on debut this year when 3rd & well beaten in a Listed contest at Windsor - probably so respected in the market here due to that Trading Leather form but we're unconvinced especially as we think Trading Leather was given a very soft lead at the Curragh anyway.

Queensbury Rules' form is interesting as on just its 2nd run (& 2nd win) it beat Glacial Age that then went on & finished 3rd to the Irish Guineas winner Magician at Chester - it was well beaten (8 lengths) at Chester but that still suggests Queensbury Rules has already run to a nice level. A big plus for Queensbury Rules is that this is a small field affair & as the only confirmed front runner Fallon should get his mount an easy lead - we're actually quite pleased as we think that should give Ebn Arab the tow he wants into the race & odds of 3/1 for a colt also entered in the Group One St James Palace look too good to pass up. We'd like it if the ground could dry a little during the day as Ebn Arab has a US pedigree & they tend to like quicker ground but stamina wise we're not too concerned as Dixie Union did sire a Belmont Stakes (1m 4f) winner.

Selection:
8.20 Sandown - Ebn Arab to win at 3/1 (Various)

2000 Guineas - Take a winning Approach

The first two Classics of the season are upon us as Newmarket hosts the 2,000 Guineas for colts on Saturday & the fillies equivalent in the 1,000 Guineas on Sunday, we're taking a look at both races as we look to continue selecting winners on the flat.


Saturday 3.50 Newmarket - 2,000 Guineas

(Godolphin owned Dawn Approach can provide his Dubai owners with some much needed joy)

We were pretty sweet on the chances of Richard Hannon's Toronado in his Guineas trial the Craven & the High Chaparral colt won in impressive style over the course & distance & deserves to be riding high in the betting. The Craven was just a four runner affair though & the runner up Havana Gold, whilst a nice type probably isn't a star & it looked like Toronado was far better suited to the conditions than his rivals there, of course those are the same as here with ground conditions similar too & jockey Richard Hughes should have him well positioned. As good as Toronado may be we've a suspicion that he looks more of a Derby type, especially how he's finished his races, & last season's star colt Dawn Approach looks the better option right now.

Jim Bolger's colt won the excellent Guineas trial the Dewhurst here at the end of last season just like his sire New Approach who finished 2nd in the 2008 version of this race. That Dewhurst win followed 5 previous wins from 5 starts including excellent victories at Royal Ascot & in the Group One National Stakes at the Curragh. Although Dawn Approach hasn't won over the distance yet there seems little doubt he'll get it as wins on softish ground over just a furlong shorter suggest a mile looks the perfect distance. There are discrepancies in price thanks to support for Toronado in the last week or so & Dawn Approach is available at 15/8 with (BetVictor) whilst as short as 5/4 with Ladbrokes, that 15/8 looks worthy of a significant wager.

Of the other contenders Aidan O'Brien's three entries have to be worth looking at considering his great record in the race with 6 previous wins including last year with the great Camelot - Cristoforo Colombo looks his number one chance with son, & Irish champion jockey, Joseph O'Brien taking the mount. Cristoforo Colombo has only won once in five runs & has already lost to Dawn Approach (in the Coventry at Royal Ascot) & we were slightly surprised that Mars wasn't the first choice even though the beautifully bred Galileo colt has only run one time before. Richard Hannon's other entry Van Der Neer has a very nice turn of foot & could offer value if you do look outside of the first two in the betting but we're confident that Dawn Approach can win with style.

Sunday 3.50 Newmarket - 1,000 Guineas

The 1,000 Guineas looks an altogether more open affair with no standout filly in the market & we like the chances of another French winner after Natagora in 2008 & Special Duty in 2010 with Mikel Delzangles' What A Name looking to hold a leading chance.

(What A Name can take the 2013 1,000 Guineas trophy to France)

What A Name was beaten just over a length by Olympic Glory at Longchamp on Arc weekend & that looks probably the best bit of form on offer (we reckon Olympic Glory will win the French 2,000 Guineas). We like the breeding of What A Name with her being by Mr Greeley & that should mean that quickish ground should hold no worries & her rider Christophe Lemaire has already won the race before & should be able to get her well placed from her stall 12 draw.

The favourite Hot Snap has only raced twice & looks to be at the head of the market on promise & thanks to the deserved reputation of trainer Henry Cecil as a master trainer of fillies. Although the win in the Nell Gwyn was impressive by Hot Snap we're not sure that the runner up Sky Lantern is as good as her official rating suggests & odds of 11/4 are too short. We're convinced What A Name will run into a place at a minimum & that means that a hefty each way bet at odds of 5/1 looks a good way to guarantee a return - we think she'll win & that could mean a highly profitable weekend of racing.

Selections:
Dawn Approach to win 2,000 Guineas at 15/8 (BetVictor)
What A Name each way for the 1,000 Guineas at 5/1 (General)

More Glory to come for Hannon & Hughes

A full day of betting opportunities this Saturday with football fixtures, good jump racing (including the Scottish Grand National & Champion Hurdle) at Ayr & some high quality flat racing at Newbury. We've a pick from the Championship plus two racing picks from Newbury as we look to keep turning a profit.

Bolton Wanderers vs Middlesbrough

The Championship is coming to its climax & Bolton are frantically chasing a playoff spot as they host Middlesbrough who appear to have thrown away their chance of a shot at promotion with an alarming post-Christmas slump in form.

(Improved & improving Marcos Alonso - just like Bolton)

This game really is a tale of opposites with Bolton starting their season disastrously when thought by many (including ourselves) to be strong title contenders but then really turning things around from February onwards with 9 wins from 14 games. Boro won their last game on Tuesday night against Nottingham Forest but that was only their 3rd win of 2013 after looking very strong through the first half of the season. Bolton lost last time out & that was against out-of-form Leicester but it was a road game & they've been far stronger at the Reebok with 13 wins from 21 games vs 4 from 22 away from home, Leicester have been under-performing for a while but they are a very good Championship side really & Bolton gave them a battle only going down late in the 3-2 loss.

Middlesbrough don't score often enough to relieve pressure on their defence, which is serviceable but certainly not impenetrable, they've only scored 4 in their last 8 games & have drawn a blank 5 times in that sequence. Bolton meanwhile have started to show a bit more in defence whilst maintaining their fairly potent attack that is even seeing David N'Gog occasionally scoring, Marcos Alonso is improving as a defender & is getting forward to support the attacking play as well as any full back in the Championship at the moment. Middlesbrough have lost 9 of their last 10 away from home & drawn the other one in that time, they come up against the Trotters who've won their last 7 in a row at the Reebok & haven't lost here since Boxing Day, backing Bolton at only a shade of odds on looks the best football bet of the day.

2.20 Newbury - Spring Cup

(Hayley Turner has a chance of riding another winner for the Queen)

25 runners line up for this competitive early season handicap & that should make things tough from a betting perspective but we think there are good reasons to get behind Border Legend off a light weight as Hayley Turner bids to follow up a win on the Queen owned Sign Manual here on Friday.

Roger Charlton's 4 year old gelding looks unexposed with just 5 runs behind him & has one piece of form which reads very well indeed when close up to Lahaag at Nottingham & that reads very nicely as that one then finished close to Chapter Seven who runs here but gives 12 pounds to the selection & that should put Border Legend past that one. Dance And Dance deserves respect even though heading the weights & if Belgian Bill could run closer to his best artificial surface form he'd have a chance but we like the chances of Border Legend at decent odds of 9/1.

3.30 Newbury - Greenham Stakes

Trainer Richard Hannon & his son-in-law jockey Richard Hughes have already tasted 2,000 Guineas trial success with the hugely impressive Toronado (tipped here) in the Craven at Newmarket on Thursday & they can follow up with a win in Newbury's trial with Olympic Glory.

(Olympic Glory can give Richard Hannon another Greenham winner)

The selection has already achieved a very high rating for a two year old of 117 & comes into his 3 year old season with very high hopes after only being beaten once last year, in the Coventry Stakes at Royal Ascot, by 2,000 Guineas favourite Dawn Approach. Already proven over a mile with a Group One win at Longchamp (doesn't carry any penalty for that) it looks like he only has one rival to face here with comparable form (although being lightly raced horses the others could improve) & that's Marco Botti's Moohaajim.

Moohaajim is actually only rated 1 pound inferior to Olympic Glory & won the Group Two Mill Reef Stakes in record time before only finding the exciting Reckless Abandon too much in the Middle Park Stakes next time. The issue with Moohaajim is that both of those aforementioned races were over 6 furlongs & the step up another furlong may not suit Botti's colt as much as dropping back the furlong will suit Olympic Glory. Moohaajim looks a real speedster & has the potential to turn into a top sprinter but 7 furlongs is a bit of a specialist distance. Hannon has good experience with getting horses to excel at this particular test, I'm thinking of our old favourite Paco Boy here (winner in 2008), & he can get his 6th Greenham winner with Olympic Glory at odds of 4/5 with Ladbrokes.

Selections:
Bolton Wanderers to beat Middlesbrough at 5/6 (BetVictor)
2.20 Newbury - Border Legend to win at 9/1 (General)
3.30 Newbury - Olympic Glory to win at 4/5 (Ladbrokes)

Toronado to leave Craven rivals in a spin

Newmarket's Craven meeting has its feature race on Thursday with the 2,000 Guineas trial the Craven Stakes seeing four already high class colts from top stables battle it out for a £34,000 winning prize & the chance to press their Classic claims. We're taking a look at the Craven plus the Wood Ditton stakes for unraced 3 year olds as we look for more steady profit.

2.20 Newmarket

The Wood Ditton is always an intriguing race as none of the horses have raced before (the conditions of the race have changed over the years) & are starting out over a mile at Newmarket's expansive track & the entries tend to come from the top stables - this means you need something relatively forward with the right temperament & a bit of class - easy to find eh?! The horse that we like is Mahmood Al Zarooni's Bustopher, an Elusive Quality colt out of a Storm Cat mare.

(Mahmood Al Zarooni can take the Wood Ditton with Bustopher)

Al Zarooni won with his very first runner of the British season with Improvisation winning her maiden impressively here on Wednesday, she already had the form in the book to do it (3rd behind useful Steeler) but it was an indication that Zarooni's horses have travelled back from Dubai well. Godolphin pioneered the idea of horses wintering in warmer climates than here in the UK & exploited it to outstanding effect well over a decade ago, improvements in training techniques have eroded the advantage they gained there but this year's miserable UK winter may see them get some early season joy with their string. Bustopher has leading Godolphin jockey Mikael Barzalona on board & should find the ground to his liking.

Chief danger may be Richard Hannon's Gerrards Cross as it's by smart sire Cape Cross & the stable have excellent strength in depth & will have sent a good one here, his half brother Perilously hasn't managed a win in 10 tries flat or jumps though. Take a chance on Bustopher at odds around 5/1, any market confidence should be noted.

4.05 Newmarket - Group 3 Craven Stakes

Only a small field for the Craven this year but all four horses have official ratings of 110 or more & all have won in pattern company before so this is a really nice race & could be a real indicator for the first classic of the year. Toronado is the one that has done the most already & Richard Hannon's High Chapparal colt carries a 3 pound penalty compared to the rest of the field for a Group Two win in the Champagne Stakes at Doncaster last September where he made all to defeat today's rival Dundonnell by half a length.

(Toronado can enhance his 2,000 Guineas claims)

Toronado was put away for the season after that Doncaster win & it could be argued that a 3 pound swing in the weights would put Dundonnell right up with his conqueror here but it looked like Toronado always had the better of things that day & his ability to be ridden from the front eliminates worries around this turning tactical.

Havana Gold was run 6 times last season & came up with four wins, once unseating Ryan Moore, & only losing when completing in a valuable sales race that Ghurair (running in the 2.55 today) took, that was impressive form but Richard Hughes takes Toronado's reins & his stablemate with just 3 runs looks less exposed. The Godolphin runner Tawhid won two races by some margin at the end of last year including the Group 3 Horris Hill stakes but the Invincible Spirit colt seemed to act particularly well on the very soft ground & won't get those conditions today, Saeed Bin Suroor's two runners on Wednesday finished 9th & 10th in two 10 runner races so he may need a couple of weeks to get firing.

Dundonnell is definitely a real danger, he was favourite when they met before & subsequently went on to start favourite & finish 4th in the Breeders' Cup Juvenile Turf so is clearly a very talented horse but today may not be quite the day to back him, he'll only be Roger Charlton's 8th runner of the season & taht suggests he's taking a patient approach with his nice string this year. Hannon is already firing & odds of 5/6 for a Toronado win look fair to us - take them.

Selections:
2.20 Newmarket - Bustopher to win at 5/1 (General)
4.05 Newmarket - Toronado to win at 5/6 (General)

African Story can Rule the World

With Saturday's football fixtures coming off an international break it seems pudent to try to avoid some potentially tricky ties & instead we're taking a look at some horse racing on the flat including the world's richest race, the Dubai World Cup. We should be back looking at the football next week plus Aintree's Grand National meeting including the main event itself. Keep up to date by following us on Twitter @LikeBuyingMoney by finding us there or clicking the Follow button at the top of the page.

6.05 Meydan - Dubai World Cup

This year's Dubai World Cup is an intriguing one as we have last year's impressive winner for Godolphin Monterosso trying to follow up, while the owners have the favourite in the form of Hunter's Light & another strong contender in last year's impressive Godolphin Mile winner African Story whilst being taken on by some top international challengers including 2011 Kentucky Derby winner Animal Kingdom.

(African Story can use his miler pace to win the Dubai World Cup)

2012 victor Monterosso looks as good a place as any to start as the horse also placed 3rd in the 2011 running showing his liking for the race conditions, unfortunately this son of Dubawi has run very poorly in his only two runs since, coming up woefully short in the Coral Eclipse won by Nathaniel & then slammed on his comeback here when only 9th in his prep race 3 weeks ago. Monterosso has bounced back before & belied odds of 20/1 to win last year but we think the race may have just about finished him off & it looks like the winner of his last race, Hunter's Light, looks more of a contender for Godolphin this time. Hunter's Light had only ever looked a smart listed race performer up until the 2nd half of last season when he went on to win a Group 3 at Haydock impressively then finished a distant 2nd to the top notch 10 furlong performer Cirrus Des Aigles. This season Hunter's Light has appeared the most impressive performer at the Meydan carnival at this distance on the Tapeta surface with solid & comfortable wins against good opposition at 9 & 10 furlongs but this is surely a step up & odds around 100/30 seem short enough for us as the horse doesn't exude star quality.

The two big American challengers look to be Animal Kingdom & super-mare Royal Delta - a two-time Breeders' Cup Ladies Classic winner. Animal Kingdom seems to be able to handle any type of surface with wins at a high level on turf & dirt & his trainer Graham Motion reckons he may even be at his best on this Tapeta all-weather surface. Animal Kingdom has only finished out of the first two on one occasion, when clipping heels in the final leg of the Triple Crown, the Belmont, & he looked booked for at least a place before landing an unfavourable 2nd to outside draw & that could prove his undoing. Royal Delta is probably the more exciting prospect as she bids to become the first female horse to win the race & she certainly has top class form plus has seen plenty of racing so should be battle-hardened but it is a different prospect taking on top class colts & she may just be brushed off in the straight.

The horse we like is African Story who looks a true Tapeta specialist & has been outstanding on the surface since joining Saeed Bin Suroor from french master-trainer Andre Fabre, only losing on the surface when hampered in his 2nd race at Meydan in 2012. After winning the Godolphin Mile (1st race on card) last year he was tried in the Champions Mile at Hong Kong but could only finish 6th, that's a very different test though & he won impressively on his comeback 3 weeks ago after 307 days off the track. African Story has a high cruising speed & sharp turn of foot, this is his first try at the distance but if Kieron Fallon can keep him covered up & deliver him with a late rattle odds of 9/1 could be made to look silly.

1.10 Meydan - Godolphin Mile

(Soft Falling Rain can leave his older rivals strung out behind & make it 7 wins from 7)

In the first thorough-bred race on the card we can't see past Mike De Kock's Soft Falling Rain at odds of 7/2, the South African colt has won all 6 of his races, proving to be the top younger horse in SA & then coming here to win his two starts impressively. That 2nd win was the UAE 2000 Guineas & he started a warm 8/11 favourite & won like that too, the shortest priced rivals today are Penitent & Surfer at odds around 9/1. Penitent is a solid group race performer but lacks the kind of star qulaity you'd hope would be on show on World Cup night & Surfer has been beaten in his last two races by Hunter's Light at slightly further distances, he'll have to markedly quicker here at 8 furlongs but does have the draw to attempt a front running performance if they choose that tactic.

2.20 Kempton - Magnolia Stakes

(Robin Hoods Bay looks a 'steal' at 11/4)

Back in the UK we're taking a look at a bit more all-weather action as the potentially tacky ground worries us at Doncaster (we do have a liking for Captain Ramius in the Cammidge & Strictly Silver in the Lincoln though). Kempton has a nice Listed race with 7 runners all rated at 95 or above & we like the look of Robin Hoods Bay to gain a victory after finishing 2nd in the Winter Derby two weeks ago. That run was the culmination of a considerable bit of improvement for Ed Vaughan's son of Derby winner Motivator who'd previously won handicaps off of 92 & then 95 at Lingfield & Kempton respectively. In the first of those wins Robin Hoods Bay gave weight & a beating to Strictly Silver & that subsequently won very nicely in the Lincoln Trial at Wolverhampton, the Winter Derby run was very good too & it was no disgrace losing to Faraaj as that horse looks very much on the upgrade & could make a good group race horse. Today's rivals Cai Shen & Tinshu  were behind at Lingfield & there's no reason they shouldn't be again, ex-French trained Genzy does look a danger though as that one finished only a length behind Faraaj on its seasonal debut & has the potential to improve for that run. Strictly on form Robin Hoods Bay should have the beating of Genzy though as it finished closer to Faraaj & wasn't receiving weight like Genzy, odds of 11/4 for a Robin Hoods Bay could mean we're robbing from the rich bookies in this one!

Selections:
1.10 Meydan - Soft Falling Rain at 7/2 (General)
2.20 Kempton - Robin Hoods Bay at 11/4 (Bet365, Paddy Power & William Hill)
6.05 Meydan - African Story at 9/1 (Various)

View some Oil Painting at Glorious Goodwood

Glorious Goodwood is here & whilst Frankel in the Sussex Stakes on Wednesday is the big draw there are still some good bets to be had on day one of the meeting & a horse that we really like is John Gosden's Michelangelo & the Galileo colt can continue Gosden's fine season by winning the Gordon Stakes at 2.35.

(Michelangelo doesn't have Donatello et al holding him back any longer....)

Michelangelo actually has to turn form around with Frankel's brother Noble Mission here as he finished 3rd to that one on debut, Noble Mission was having his 3rd run there though & it was a great performance from Michelangelo considering it was a Listed race & being his first time out. The extra two furlongs today should also help as he looks totally stamina laden, it seems that last time he raced over 10 furlongs just because the sales race prize was too valuable to turn down & really he looks a middle distance horse & maybe even a St Leger type. Gosden has two other horses with chances in the Leger & we think if Michelangelo runs well enough here there is just the possibility they may start to angle for a tilt at the Arc or maybe even the Breeders' Cup Turf over 1m4f as well. Noble Mission is a good marker but with normal improvement Michelangelo should go past & several of the others don't look near his standard.

Girolamo finished 3rd in the German Derby behind the very smart Pastorious but may want softer ground, he deserves respect though & Godolphin run the thoroughly unexposed Encke but you'd think that one would need to find a stone or more improvement on anything its done so far. We're slightly surprised Michelangelo isn't shorter than 11/8 & that price should be bet, this is one of the most exciting horses in training & could blow this lot away for the in form Buick & Gosden combination.

(Charlie Hills has started to get his two year olds flying)

The maiden race at 4.15 looks a really interesting contest & we think the chances of African Oil may be underestimated from the early prices we've seen. Charlie Hills has had two potentially smart two year old winners first time out in the past week in Kerbaaj & the particularly taking Ebn Arab (one to follow for sure) & he has African Oil here & this one has an entry in the Group Two Champagne Stakes so must have shown something at home. African Oil was foaled as early as is possible with a 1st January date & he could be quite physically forward with half the year's sun on his back, at odds of 14/1 he's the one to be on for the win. Of the horses to have run so far Huntsman's Close has shown most promise after being headed close home at Yarmouth but any of them would have to step up to take this £11,321 prize & we'll stick with the potential of the newcomer.

Selections:

Goodwood 2.35 - Michelangelo to win at 11/8 (general)

Goodwood 4.15 - African Oil to win at odds of 14/1 or bigger

Bible Bash the Bookies at Newmarket

This Saturday sees our favourite race of the British flat season with the 1m4f King George VI & Queen Elizabeth Stakes & although we'll be backing Sea Moon as we've always held a belief Sir Michael Stoute's charge can be just about the top middle distance horse around we can't find the evidence to advise anyone else to get on board at the prices this time. Instead we're taking a look at the Listed race for fillies at Newmarket & Ascot's supporting race in the Group 2 Summer Mile Stakes.

(Bible Belt looks the best filly in the Aphrodite Stakes at Newmarket)

The Aphrodite Stakes over 12 furlongs at Newmarket looks an eminently solvable puzzle to us & we're surprised to see Bible Belt available at odds as big as 5/2, maybe it's because so much focus is on Ascot that we're getting such a gift here! Bible Belt is the highest rated horse here yet gets 3 pounds off of Set To Music & only has to give weight to the 3 year olds who get their weight for age allowance. Bible Belt has some excellent form when finishing 2nd to Oaks winner Dancing Rain at Ascot last October & although Jessica Harrington's horse didn't run brilliantly on comeback this year, that was in the Group One Tattersall's Gold Cup at the Curragh & it should have put the filly spot on for this after an 8 week break.

We're not convinced Set To Music has quite the stamina to last out over this distance on soft gound & whilst Dorcas Lane will love the cut she's got quite to bit to find with Bible Belt on a form line with Gertrude Bell. Of the three year olds in the race Ambivalent is bred to appreciate the cut & deserves respect being the great young trainer Roger Varian's entry, we've a sneaky feeling that Hazel Lavery could run a big race & odds of 16/1 may be underestimating her. Bible Belt is the selection though & 5/2 could be gone by the time the race comes around, unless there is a significant drift on her though we'd be confident she can really get her 2012 season going.

(She will be cross but we'll be happy if Carlton House can get beat at Ascot)

The Queen's horse, & last year's Derby favourite, Carlton House looks to be hugely underpriced for our money in the Summer Mile at Ascot - at odds of just 4/5 this one looks a lay for any punters using Betfair. We've been happy to take the Stoute trained colt on at nearly every opportunity & we haven't gone far wrong after laying it in the Derby last year & then at very short odds in the Irish Derby for a place on his next outing. Connections are now trying to drop back in distance to just 8 furlongs after more positive showings after moving back to 10 furlongs from the mile & a half distance, they seem to think he travels well enough but this race is no gimme with some smart rivals who definitely are mile specialists. Carlton House ran very well last time when 2nd to So You Think in the Prince of Wales Stakes but we never particularly rated that one either, Farrh who finished 3rd that day has given the form a big boost after coming 2nd in the Eclipse but we'd suspect that was quite some level of improvement shown.

Both Questioning & Red Jazz are capable of running to a high level of form, get the distance & won't mind the ground whichever way it goes & you'd expect them to be close come the finish. Pastoral Player will be trying a mile for the first time but seems to be improving now as a 5 year old & shown his best form over 7 furlongs, things certainly happened a little too quickly over 6 furlongs in the Diamond Jubilee Stakes when 10th to Black Caviar last time. Tullius could be theone to win this as the Vie De Colori colt is the real improving horse in the race & on all his form & breeding points towards 8 furlongs on softish ground being the ideal conditions for this one, so long as the ground doesn't dry up too much Jimmy Fortune will have an outstanding chance on him. With so many potential challengers, Set The Trend also has a chance on ratings, we can't see value in anything below 5/4 for Carlton House & we'll be layers this time.

Selections:
3.10 Newmarket - Bible Belt to win at 5/2
3.20 Ascot - Lay Carlton House at 4/5 (1.80) or lower on Betfair

Underrated Monterosso can add Eclipse to Title Haul

Saturday sees some solid racing in the UK, really for the first time since the end of the Royal Ascot meeting, as Sandown hosts its premier flat race of the year in the Coral Eclipse. It also looks like Sandown may have some proper summer racing ground conditions with the forecast ground being Good/Good to Firm in places & that helps us be a little more confident that more horses will run to form. We've got a couple of bets for Sandown & another from Haydock - last Saturday Michelangelo won well for us & each way pick Arctic picked up the place money with ease but could only finish 2nd in Ireland. As always if you aren't doing already you can follow us on Twitter @LikeBuyingMoney by clicking the Follow button at the top of this page or finding us on there.

(Monterosso winning the 2012 Dubai World Cup)

Sandown's Coral Eclipse has always been one of the highlights of the racing calendar & has been won by some great horses, going from Mill Reef & Brogadier Gerard in the 70s, Sadlers Wells & Dancing Brave in the 80s & Halling & Daylami in the 90s. In recent years we've seen Sea The Stars & So You Think win & that emphasises that you normally need a rock solid to top class Group One performer to win the race & with So You Think's withdrawal (injury & retirement in the week) we think that only leaves a few to pick from now.

There's been plenty of betting support for Saeed Bin Suroor's Farrh & the Godolphin colt clearly has plenty of scope for improvement having only raced three times before embarking on his 4 year old career & finishing a relatively closeup 3rd in the Prince Of Wales Stakes at Royal Ascot behind So You Think & Carlton House. Farrh would need to improve quite a bit on that first run but that is definitely possible as he was a little tight for room at a crucial stage, we just have never been totally convinced by So You Think & can't see Carlton House as a Group One horse so the form's a little weighed down for us, by all accounts Farrh's team were hoping for softer ground too. We actually prefer the chances of another Godolphin runner in Monterosso, 5 year olds have an outstanding record in this race with 8 of the last 19 runnings seeing this age group successful. Monterosso comes with some form of the highest order as he won the richest race in the world, the Dubai World Cup, back in March & in 2011 he finished 3rd in the race so it was no fluke. That win back in March was made all the more impressive as after his 3rd in 2011 he missed the rest of the season after suffering with colic, he's the highest rated in this race (by a pound) & is surely being underrated by being put up as a 12/1 shot, Monterosso is trained by Al Zarooni & ridden by Mikael Barzalona & by all accounts they're now Godolphin's first trainer & jockey - not Bin Suroor & Dettori. Nathaniel is the closest to Monterosso in the ratings but hasn't raced since last October, his win in the King George over 2 furlongs further is great form though & John Gosden's horses are flying, we just feel he's a bit more of a stamina laden type than a true 10 furlong horse. Cityscape is the other top class horse here & the drying ground will help as it's far from certain whether this miler really will get 10 furlongs whilst Twice Over would previously have been a danger but now looks a horse in decline.

(Electrolyser is a bit of looker & but hopefully his rivals will only be seeing him from the rear)

In Sandown's following race we get to see a pretty competitive Listed staying contest in the Esher Stakes & it could be worth siding with Clive Cox's Electrolyser as quickish conditions should see him at his best over this true stayer distance. There isn't an awful lot between the runners on official ratings & Electrolyser will have to carry a penalty for his Nottingham win in April, he is pretty lightly raced for a 7 year old though & came 3rd in the race last year when just a 9/2 shot, he's more than  double that price this time around but could end up getting the crucial early lead he needs to show his best form. Chiberta King won the race last year & has since been competing in the top staying races but not faring particularly well although Andrew Balding's charge did run nicely on his comeback here at the end of May, he looks like he has a liking for the track & conditions will be fine - he must be rated a danger. It looks like Glen's Diamond will be prominent in the betting but his 4 wins have come over 5, 7, 9 & 10 furlongs - anyone backing Fahey's runner here is taking a big old risk that he really wants 2 miles against some confirmed stayers. Cavalryman has previously been a top racehorse but hasn't done a lot of winning in recent years, his win at York last time was a very soft Listed contest & he'll have to carry a penalty for that as he tries 2 miles for the first time. These stayers can be frustratingly inconsistent so we have to look for one at decent odds & we'll take Electrolyser to defy carrying a 3 pound penalty at decent odds of 16/1, at that price he becomes a solid each way bet too.

(Non-runner now) Over at Haydock the ground will still have a bit of juice left in it but that won't bother Rod Millman's colt Yes Two in the nursery race, he's carrying quite a bit more weight than the others but that's because he's shown the best form & on top of that is probably just about the most unexposed too. Yes Two ran well on debut before then making all successfully at Doncaster, having subsequent Listed 2nd Top Boy back in 3rd place. After that Yes Two faced a pretty impossible task when finishing 4th in a Listed race at Naas where the talented Dawn Approach won well, he had Aidan O'Brien's Pedro The Greta behind that day & that one was subsequently priced up at just 6/4 for the Group Two Railway Stakes & that indicates a mark of 85 for Yes Two is not too harsh from the handicapper. Fortinbrass is probably the biggest danger here but that one had a tough race in heavy ground just three weeks ago & has raced 4 times versus Yes Two's 3 runs. If we can get odds of 4/1 or above for Yes two we think he's a solid win chance & almost certain to grab some place money - get on!

Selections:
Sandown 3.45 - Monterosso to win at 12/1 (various)
Sandown 4.20 - Electrolyser each way at 16/1 (Coral) (Only 7 runners now so only 2 places, Betfair still running to 3 on their place market)
Haydock 4.00 - Yes Two each way at 4/1 or bigger (Non-runner)

Michelangelo to deliver a Masterstroke

After Royal Ascot started out so promisingly for us the week turned horrible as several Aidan O'Brien horses ran well below form, particularly Astrology that had his rivals well & truly beat on form in the King Edward VII but couldn't raise a gallop in the last two furlongs. We're looking to bounce back as we go onwards & into the main part of the flat racing season, there are some nice races this Saturday including the Irish Derby, being staged at 7.40pm, & we've found some horses at fair odds to get on.

(Michelangelo getting on top in the Cocked Hat Stakes)

We're real fans of John Gosden's exciting colt Michelangelo & backed it heavily last time when winning a Listed race at Goodwood on only his second start, with Samitar & Rougemont out of this Newmarket race it looks Michelangelo's for the taking. Trainer & rider combination John Gosden & William Buick were in outstanding form at Royal Ascot & Michelangelo has the best form on offer in the race, the one worry is the step back 1 furlong from 1m3f as Michelangelo has a stout pedigree & looks like he could stay at least another 2 furlongs & that was shown when reeling in the front running Expense Claim last time. We wouldn't be surprised to see a much faster start for Michelangelo this time & Buick try to make the running, Newmarket can be a little bit of a test & that would play into this one's hooves, at 10/11 Michelangelo should be backed to win the valuable sales race at 2.00pm.

(Arctic is a sprinter back on the upgrade)

Over in Ireland before the Irish Derby & the return of potential superstar Camelot there is an interesting sprint & with ground conditions in his favour we think that Arctic can follow up its easy win two weeks ago at Navan. Tracey Collins 5 year old gelding is lightly raced with only 12 runs behind him & was excellent at two where he won his first three races including beating crack sprinter Sole Power by 5 lengths in a Listed race & then following up with a wide margin win in a Group/ His win at Navan was his first since that first season but the signs were there to back him as the ground was really soft & was running in handicap company off a mark 20 pounds lower than he'd been rated at when at the top of his game. Arctic has been raised 8 pounds for the Navan win but that looks fair enough & if coming back to form he'll take some stopping as he's a high cruising speed, the one to challenge could be Bertiewhittle but David Barron's decent handicapper let supporters down when well backed at Newbury on Lockinge day & we would rather avoid. At a standout 10/1 with Ladbrokes we think Arctic is nailed on for at least a place & could win this before stepping back up to Listed & Group company.

(Hoof It can power home under Frankie Dettori at Newmarket)

In the Criterion Stakes at Newmarket you can get odds of 2/1 about Hoof It & we reckon that is pretty much a bet of whether he'll get 7 furlongs or not as Mick Easterby's sprinter is a Group One performer (at least in British sprinting) & should pick these rivals up & spit them out. Libranno bounced back to form in a Listed contest at Salisbury last time but the field ended up in a heap at the finish there so the form mightn't be great. Firebeam is Hoof it's chief rival in the betting here but we think its rating of 111 is overestimating just how good William Haggas's gelding is, it comes courtesy of running Red Jazz close last time but that rival was always just about holding him & hasn't run too smartly since anyway. Hoof It won two large field handicaps in taking fashion last year before running creditably in the Group One Nunthorpe & then being very unluckily touched off in a close finish in the Betfred Sprint Cup by the UK's top two sprinters in Dream Ahead & Bated Breath. Hoof It will have to put a somewhat disappointing run in the Temple Stakes behind him but that was its comeback run, he looks such a powerful horse that we think he'll now be able to last out 7 furlongs & frankie Dettori is the right jockey to deliver him at the right time.

Selections:
Newmarket 2.00 - Michelangelo to win at 10/11 (general)
Newmarket 3.35 - Hoof It to win at 2/1 (PaddyPower & Stan James)
Curragh 5.55 - Arctic each way at 10/1 (Ladbrokes)

Royal Ascot Day Four - Raindancing Queen to have her Coronation

The ground at Ascot has really got very soft after large amounts of rain throughout Thursday & whilst it didn't suit our picks on Thursday, Fame And Glory was particularly disappointing, we think it should suit our ones today as we look to bounce back.

(Homecoming Queen can leave her rivals in the shade in the Coronation Stakes)

Homecoming Queen won the 1,000 Guineas on ground quite a bit softer than the official good to soft going by a record 9 lengths & the rain that has fallen is very much in her favour in the Coronation Stakes. Although Aidan O'Brien's filly could only get 4th in the Irish Guineas that was on much quicker ground & the form isn't so bad anyway with the 2nd there, Ishvana, winning for O'Brien here on Wednesday. Homecoming Queen needs to turn tthe form around with Mick Channon's Samitar but that one looks a top of the ground horse & the importance of underfoot conditions can't be overstated. Channon's other hope here is Laugh Out Loud & whilst she was a long way behind the pick at Newmarket she's bounced back to win twice, at York & in France, the York form hasn't held up too great though but she should handle conditions here. Elusive Kate is a very nice horse & is already a Group One winner but she's another who mightn't appreciate the ground & it won't be easy for her to win on her first run of the year anyway & Gosden's other runners Starscope & Fallen For You look just about held on form. With several runners ruled out on form or ground concerns we think that Homecoming Queen looks a nice bet at 7/2, she has the best connections & Joseph O'Brien could get a nice ride on the way to another big race win.

(Astrology will relish underfoot conditions & can win the King Edward VII Stakes)

In the preceding race we think that Aidan O'Brien has a good thing in Derby third Astrology, the colt won impressively on very soft ground at Chester & was only just run out of 2nd in the Derby after leading for so long. The Derby form sets Astrology quite a bit clear of some of his rivals here with Thought Worthy another 6 lengths behind & that one having only beaten Noble Mission by a neck in its race before that. Noble Mission is a full brother to Frankel but obviously nowhere near as talented but connections must think he's at least got a chance of turning form around with Thought Worthy as they've a 5 pound pull in the weights. Thomas Chippendale looks to be Cecil's second string & is a way off in form terms anyway & Initiator & Farhaan look well held. The one that could be a danger is the somewhat disappointing so far Shantaram - Gosden's stable jockey is on this one instead of Thought Worthy (ridden by Gold Cup winning jockey Frankie Dettori) & this test looks perfect on breeding. Shantaram was only 3/4 of a length away from Derby second Main Sequence in the Lingfield trial & he eventually got off the mark at prohibitive odds of 1/8 last time, with a bit more improvement he could figure. Astrology could well set the pace again but rather than going off quite so quickly as in the Derby when setting it up for stablemate Camelot he'll be looking to win himself here & that should increase his chances, odds of 5/4 are perfectly reasonable.

Selections:
3.05 Royal Ascot - Astrology to win at 5/4 (general)
3.05 Royal Ascot - straight forecast Astrology to beat Shantaram
3.45 Royal Ascot - Homecoming Queen at 7/2 (general)

Royal Ascot Day Three - Cay Verde can jet away from rivals

Day two of Royal Ascot wasn't so kind to us with our outsider bets not managing to land a blow but we're back & looking at Ladies Day to find the winners & we like our chances of trebling up in the first three races.

(Fame And Glory can delight the Royal Ascot crowd with another Gold Cup win)

Fame And Glory can win a second Gold Cup at odds of Evens & make it 6 wins in 7 runnings for trainer Aidan O'Brien, he's got the beating of his main rivals here & looks better the further he goes. f there is a time for Fame And Glory to be vulnerable you'd say early or late in the season & we tried to get the better of him in his comeback run by backing Unaccompanied but he prevailed by a neck & O'Brien will have him spot on for this race. Opinion Poll is a very good horse but has been well beaten by the pick a couple of times & the other Godolphin horse Colour Vision was behind both Opinion Poll & Fame And Glory in a two mile race here last year. Saddlers Rock is the interesting one courtesy of  a storming win at Doncaster at the end of 2011 when beating Opinion poll by 4 lengths but John Oxx's horse really only has the one piece of form putting him close to these top stayers & was beaten at Leopardstown two weeks ago.

(Speedy, versatile with regards to ground & great form - Cay Verde's the bet in the opener)

In the opener Cay Verde's form has taken a massive boost with the horses that have finished 2nd to him in his last two races finishing 1st & 3rd in Tuesday's Windsor Castle stakes. Mick Channon's Bahamian Bounty colt picked up his maiden here in soft ground & has since gone to the Curragh & won on good/good to firm with authority there so looks pretty versatile & certainly precocious enough to take this. Aidan O'Brien's Gale Force Ten could be a danger as he's some decent form in beating Leitir Mor last time & that one finished 7th in the Coventry on Tuesday. The other one we like is in the same ownership as the pick & that's Ahern who won very impressively at Musselburgh despite blowing the start, this will be a pretty speedy race & he will need to be much tidier if he's going to challenge here. Cay Verde has already achieved the most of these  has a Listed win under his belt, the form stacks up & odds of 3/1 are very tempting indeed.

(The Fugue (far left) can get a better run & finish in front of Shirocco Star (centre) in the Ribblesdale)

The Ribblesdale is a quality race for middle distance fillies & Oaks form is great to bring into the race & the 2nd, 3rd & 4th from Epsom are all competing here. Shirocco Star ran Was to a neck in the Oaks but we prefer the chances of the 3rd that day The Fugue, she had a terrible passage & was nearly brought down at one point yet she showed toughness & class to end up just about a length away in 3rd, with better luck here she can win in style. The Fugue has great connections, John Gosden trains, & top middle distance breeding - we really liked her dam Twyla Tharp who was by Sadler's Wells, she can use her stamina base to charge down the finishing straight to the win here. Vow was 4th in the Oaks & that was impressive for just her third run but she'll have to improve again to get past The Fugue who was a length clear of her even with her troubled passage. We can see The Fugue going off shorter than the current odds of 2/1 & she should be backed at that price.

Selections:
2.30 Royal Ascot - Cay Verde to win at 3/1 (general)
3.05 Royal Ascot - The Fugue to win at 2/1 (general)
3.45 Royal Ascot - Fame And Glory to win at Evens (general)

Royal Ascot Day Two - Bonnie & Lora to strike for the girls

Day two of Royal Ascot  sees us slow down a bit from the first day & the three Group Ones plus Frankel to start with, it's still a great card with four Group races, a Listed handicap & the ultra competitive Royal Hunt Cup. We gave you Excelebration to win without Frankel & Side Glance yesterday (2nd & 3rd behind Frankel) & we'll be looking for more winners for Wednesday's racing below.

(Bonnie Brae can go one better than she managed in the Victoria Cup)

The Royal Hunt Cup is one of the handicaps of the season & with 30 runners in the field it certainly won't prove easy, in the last 10 runnings 7 of the winners have been a double figure price & currently there's only one horse on offer at less than 10/1 - the likeable Dimension. James Fanshawe has won this twice as a trainer & dimension won a handicap back here in September before a decent comeback run when coming 2nd to Bronze Prince at Lingfield. Dimension also fits the profile of a typical winner, being a 4 year old with potential for improvement but he has come 2nd four times in his 11 race career already & we don't like to see that.

Rock Critic is interesting as at 7 years old he's still only had 16 runs for Derot Weld & has clearly been difficult to keep healthy but connections have persevered & now have a very nice handicapper that has won 5 of its last 8 runs. For once though Weld's runners aren't absolutely flying & tempted as we are at a price of 20/1 we'll leave alone. The horse we like for this one is probably very slightly older than ideal but Bonnie Brae seems to have kept improving & is quite closely matched with the favourite Dimension on form linking them both to Bronze Prince. Dominic Elsworth's mare handles cut in the ground & she finished 2nd here on her seasonal debut in the very valuable 24 runner Victoria Cup which shows she should handle the race just fine. We can write off Bonnie Brae's last run where she came 10th as there was firm in the description of the going, top jockey Ryan 'Smiler' Moore is again partnering her & she should give him a great ride at juicy odds of 18/1. There are a few firms offering 5 places in the race so if you do back each way make sure to get on with those.

(Falls Of Lora can bounce back to form in the Sandringham)

We love the chances of the Godolphin horse Falls Of Lora in the last race of the day, she won impressively at Dubai earlier in the year but then failed to fire against the colts in the UAE Derby although the race didn't appear to suit closers that day & she should get a true enough pace here. Falls Of Lora has already won here when winning a conditions race in impressive fashion last September & this is certainly tougher but we think she might just have shown the highest level of form yet is getting 7 pounds off of top weight Electrelane. Electrelane has a mark of 109 courtesy of a length 2nd to Laugh Out Loud where she finished 10 lengths clear of the rest at York but we're unconvinced about those horses in behind although Laugh out Loud went on to win the French race with the same name as this.

Frankie Dettori is on the other Godolphin runner but it seems unclear whether he's first jockey now anyway & Falls Of Lora had his mount Pimpernel well behind when winning in Dubai. At odds of 20/1 back Mikael Barzalona to show why he's Godolphin's number one, he can guide Falls Of Lora home with a late rattle.

Selections:
4.25 Royal Ascot - Bonnie Brae each way at 18/1 (Totesport & Betfred + first 5 places pay)
5.35 Royal Ascot - Falls Of Lora each way at 20/1 (William Hill)

Royal Ascot Day One - Unbeatable Frankel?

Royal Ascot always gets off to a bang with the three opening races being Group Ones & this year the highest rated horse in the world, Frankel, is in the opener the Queen Anne Stakes. It should be a cracking day's racing & we've taken a look at all of the races to come up with a couple of value bets at big prices. As ever you can follow us on Twitter @LikeBuyingMoney by clicking the Follow button at the top of the page.

 (Amour Propre is a class animal & a course & distance winner running in the King's Stand Stakes)

The King's Stand Stakes sees a big old field of 23 runners & that may be aprtly down to some of these horses wanting to avoid running in the Golden Jubilee against wonder filly, the monstrously huge Black Caviar, it makes for a really interesting race & there looks to be a bit of value available too. We're not quite sure why but Ascot seems to be a course where it helps to be a bit of a specialist, it isn't too undulating & the bends seem very standard so you'd guess that the surface must suit some types more than others & we've looked at those with a bit of course form & the one that stands out at a huge price is Henry Candy's Amour Propre. Amour Propre is a lightly raced horse for a 6 year old with just 14 runs to its name but 5 wins from those races which indicates the consistency the gelding runs at & one of those wins was a course & distance win, in softish ground, as a two year old in the Cornwallis Stakes.

Sole Power is fairly well fancied for this & at single figure prices with some firms but Amour Propre gave that one a comprehensive beating at the Curragh last August & although he was receiving five pounds that day there's no way Amour Propre should be a 40/1 shot & should be backed with a bit of confidence each way. We're big Bated Breath fans but the give underfoot probably won't play to that one's strengths & Roger Charlton's form seems to have slightly dropped off & it's difficult to know what to make of foreign raiders Joy & Fun & Little Bridge although often our horses aren't the best sprinters around so they must have a chance. Australian horse Ortensia is probably the best of the foreign contingent & if you only want to back a horse to win we'd probably lean towards that one at 5/1 but we'll happily stay with our overpriced pick.

(Side Glance could offer a value alternative bet in the Queen Anne stakes)

The Queen Anne stakes really does look like being a formality for the great Frankel, he's already beaten five of his ten rivals here with some authority & his top rated rival is Excelebration who he's beaten 4 times so far & should make it five. Therefore, assuming Frankel is going to win, the betting has to be done in the 'without Frankel' market where the very consistent & classy in his own right Excelebration leads the market at 11/10 & is a very good bet, chief rival in the market Strong Suit hasn't run since the Breeders Cup in November & O'Brien's colt is probably better anyway. Joseph O'Brien shouldn't get so excited that he actually tries to ride Excelebration to beat Frankel, he'll ignore what he does & ride his own race & that should guarantee second & if anything 'strange' happens with Frankel he'll be best placed to take advantage.

Other than Excelebration we also really like the chances of one of very favourites in Side Glance, Ascot is a specialists' track & Andrew Balding's charge is a two time course winner plus came 2nd of 28 in a very competitive heritage handicap. It seems that Side Glance takes a while to get going in the season as his first two runs were below par efforts but he came back last time & won pretty well at Epsom & beat Worthadd fair & square so it seems odd that rival is ahead of him in the betting. At 16/1 in the without Frankel market Side Glance is a very solid each way bet & we'll team that up with the already mentioned Excelebration bet to give ourselves plenty to cheer even whilst Frankel streaks away.

Selections:
2.30 Royal Ascot - Excelebration to win at 11/10 (William Hill) in without Frankel market
2.30 Royal Ascot - Side Glance each way at 16/1 (Bet365) in without Frankel market
3.05 Amour Propre each way at 40/1 (various)

Camelot a worthy Derby favourite

The most famous flat race in the world is upon us & this year's Epsom Derby sees a potential superstar in the form of Camelot descend upon the race & with Aidan O'Brien having trained the winners of all three of the Classics so far it'll take a brave punter to back against him making it 4 from 4 here. We've got the Derby covered plus the supporting 5 furlong Dash & a punt from Haydock's 7 furlong Group 3 race too, hopefully we can keep up the good tipping that has seen 4 of our last 5 selections be successful.

(Camelot looks the class act in the Derby field)

Camelot won the 2,000 Guineas, getting up late on & then holding the French raider French Fifteen with the pair over two lengths clear of the field, that form in itself is the best on offer & having won the key two year old Derby trial in the Racing Post Trophy he's already two Group One wins from just 3 starts & he can add a 3rd here. The somewhat sticky ground at Newmarket probably didn't help Camelot & although ridden from the rear we feel he'd have won more convincingly if travelling a bit closer to the pace as he won twice over a mile as a two year old & is by Montjeu so should have the right amount of stamina for the Derby trip. Andrew Balding's Bonfire looks like starting as 2nd favourite but we were not impressed at all with the win in the Dante, he only got up late to beat Ektihaam & that horse would be way out in the betting if running here. Bonfire did behave very badly at York though & if settling better he could show an improved level of form & trainer Andrew Balding is in decent form though with 3 winners from his last 5 runners. Main Sequence is the other unbeaten horse in the race but his wins have been in races some way below this level & his Lingfield Derby Trial win unfortunately took place on the polytrack & it's difficult to see how that form will translate to quickish ground on Epsom's undulations. Lucarno is beautifully bred, as a full brother to Lucarno, but was getting 5 pounds off of Noble Mission & only just beat that one at Newmarket last time, today's rival Rugged Cross was some way behind & looks a no hoper. We reckon the biggest risk to Camelot could come from stablemate Astrology who definitely has the stamina & has already won (by some margin) at a tricky track when taking Chester's Dee Stakes. Astrology could threaten but Camelot is the one to be on & 4/6 looks fair enough as a price seeing as none of the other rivals look like classic winners.

(Bear Behind is speedy & can travel at the front the whole way in the Dash)

Epsom's 5 furlong track is the quickest in the world as the horses race downhill all the way & being able to travel at a high pace is crucial to winning & Bear Behind has that quality & plenty of nice form to go with it. Tom Dascombe's colt is one of only two 3 year olds in the race so is open to more improvement than many of his rivals here & is drawn up against the stands rail which will help keep him straight on the track, he's regularly quick out of the stalls & with a sharp start here he'll be tough to beat. Bear Behind beat Hamish McGonagal earlier in the year but had the race somewhat harshly taken away for interference & then only failed by a neck to beat the speedy Ballesteros when giving it 6 pounds & they were 11 lengths clear of the pack, that was on heavy ground & it will be very different conditions here. Last year's winner Captain Dunne deserves respect & we've always liked Sohraab but Bear Behind is the one to get on at odds of 8/1, his style of racing is perfect for the race & his rivals might just not be able to reel him in from the front.

(Red Jazz will prove a cut above his Haydock rivals)

In Haydock's 7 furlong Group 3 race we can't see past Red Jazz, Charlie Hills' runner is joint top rated with Royal Rock but gets 3 pounds off of that one & is almost certainly a better horse anyway. Royal Rock also hasn't raced over as far as this for the past 5 years & there have to be stamina questions, this is Red Jazz's optimum trip & he can get further so Michael Hills may make plenty of use of his ride to draw the sting out of his rivals. Majestic Myles is nice enough but was easily beaten by Red Jazz last time & we wouldn't be surprised to see Red Jazz go off shorter than 7/4 - get on this good thing!

Selections:

Haydock 2.35 - Red Jazz to win at 7/4

Epsom 3.15 - Bear Behind to win at 8/1

Epsom 4.00 - Camelot to win at 4/6

Ryan Moore will be smiling & blowing Kisses on Oaks day

The Oaks is the premier Fillies Classic & takes place at Epsom & Aidan O'Brien looks to be running a hatful as he attempts to keep his English Classic clean sweep going after victories in the 1,000 & 2,000 Guineas, there are some top UK based trainers looking to take him on though & it could be a great race. We're taking a look at the big race plus the Group 3 Diomed Stakes as we look to pick up from last weekend with 3 winning bets from 4 (advised at 13/8, 100/30 & a double at a shade above 5/1).

(If allowed to have a run Kissed could use her stamina & turn of foot to good effect in the Oaks)

With 6 runners declared Aidan O'Brien has nearly half of the field for the Guineas & his leading hopes look to be 1,000 Guineas third Maybe & unbeaten, two time Navan winner Kissed, O'Brien has said that the latter only runs if there is some ease in the ground but if she does then she's our idea of the winner. Kissed only had one run in 2011 but she won her 17 runner maiden in pretty good style & when she turned out at the end of April in the Listed Salsabil stakes she looked some filly, destroying the 5 runner field & looking like she had all the stamina needed for the 12 furlong trip here. Stamina was always unlikely to be an issue for Kissed as she's by Galileo, out of a Darshaan mare (she's actually a 3/4 sister to last year's Derby winner Pour Moi). She did look really at home on the soft ground at Navan though & if it were to get quick here it's understandable if she wasn't to run, however there has been some watering at Epsom & it was a little cooler on Thursday with the chance of some light showers in the night so she could get the tiny bit of cut wanted, if she does then Ryan Moore is the man to have aboard as he'll deliver her charge early enough to get these on the stretch in the tough Epsom straight. 

Maybe was a hot favourite for the Guineas & we were keen on her chances after an outstanding juvenile year but the race didn't turn out as planned with stablemate & outsider Homecoming Queen winning by a record margin, there have to be some doubts about the validity of that form & that was held up by the winner only coming in 4th in a pretty average looking Irish 1,000. Joseph O'Brien gets the mount suggesting she is the first string but we have seen plenty of Ballydoyle second strings win good races & we aren't enthusiastic about the English Guineas form, that means we also don't like the Fugue at the available prices. The Fugue came 4th in the Guineas, a little behind Maybe, but she was impressive in the Musidora at York & beat another O'Brien horse, Twirl, with some authority. Twirl however would be some way down the pecking order at Ballydoyle pecking order having only won a maiden & may just have been running in the Musidora as it looked a weak option. Vow is another unbeaten filly but again looks a little on the short side as she doesn't seem to have beaten anything of note & the Lingfield Oaks Trial win was only on the polytrack, although it was pretty nice how she quickened up & she shad one of today's rivals, Colima, over 3 lengths behind. Godolphin's Kailani looks a very nice type but being by Monsun she may want soft ground even more than Kissed & a Leger tilt later in the year could be on the cards for this stamina laden type. The best odds on offer are for Kissed at 7/1 in general & 15/2 with William Hill, back her & if she does run she should go off a couple of points shorter.

(Side Glance needs to bounce back from a couple of poor runs but can do in the Diomed)

Worthadd looks like being a pretty short priced favourite for the one mile Diomed & with a 2nd place in a Group One (Newbury's 2011 Lockinge stakes) & an easy win in a Group Two in Germany last time it's understandable but that win does mean carrying a penalty & Side Glance could be a tough foe if coming back to last summer's form. Side Glance's seasonal debut run was pretty disappointing, only coming in 5th but the first & second there went on to fill the same places in the Group Two Sandown Mile. On the polytrack last time Side Glance only came 3rd but was the only horse near the front to end up close with both Sri Putra & Saamidd coming from way off the pace. If you go back to 2011 Side Glance won 2 Listed races & then a Group 3 at Salisbury all over this distance in a span of 4 races & he could just be coming into some form now, he was eased a little at Kempton when the hold up horses sped past in the latter stages & it wasn't a bad run really (Sri Putra's previous run had been in the Champion Stakes). At odds of 4/1 with Skybet Side Glance is the value alternative to Worthadd as he gets 3 pounds off that rival.

Selections:

2.50 Epsom - Side Glance to win at 4/1 (Skybet)

4.05 Epsom - Kissed to win at 15/2 (William Hill)