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Friday, 6 July 2012

Underrated Monterosso can add Eclipse to Title Haul

Saturday sees some solid racing in the UK, really for the first time since the end of the Royal Ascot meeting, as Sandown hosts its premier flat race of the year in the Coral Eclipse. It also looks like Sandown may have some proper summer racing ground conditions with the forecast ground being Good/Good to Firm in places & that helps us be a little more confident that more horses will run to form. We've got a couple of bets for Sandown & another from Haydock - last Saturday Michelangelo won well for us & each way pick Arctic picked up the place money with ease but could only finish 2nd in Ireland. As always if you aren't doing already you can follow us on Twitter @LikeBuyingMoney by clicking the Follow button at the top of this page or finding us on there.

(Monterosso winning the 2012 Dubai World Cup)

Sandown's Coral Eclipse has always been one of the highlights of the racing calendar & has been won by some great horses, going from Mill Reef & Brogadier Gerard in the 70s, Sadlers Wells & Dancing Brave in the 80s & Halling & Daylami in the 90s. In recent years we've seen Sea The Stars & So You Think win & that emphasises that you normally need a rock solid to top class Group One performer to win the race & with So You Think's withdrawal (injury & retirement in the week) we think that only leaves a few to pick from now.

There's been plenty of betting support for Saeed Bin Suroor's Farrh & the Godolphin colt clearly has plenty of scope for improvement having only raced three times before embarking on his 4 year old career & finishing a relatively closeup 3rd in the Prince Of Wales Stakes at Royal Ascot behind So You Think & Carlton House. Farrh would need to improve quite a bit on that first run but that is definitely possible as he was a little tight for room at a crucial stage, we just have never been totally convinced by So You Think & can't see Carlton House as a Group One horse so the form's a little weighed down for us, by all accounts Farrh's team were hoping for softer ground too. We actually prefer the chances of another Godolphin runner in Monterosso, 5 year olds have an outstanding record in this race with 8 of the last 19 runnings seeing this age group successful. Monterosso comes with some form of the highest order as he won the richest race in the world, the Dubai World Cup, back in March & in 2011 he finished 3rd in the race so it was no fluke. That win back in March was made all the more impressive as after his 3rd in 2011 he missed the rest of the season after suffering with colic, he's the highest rated in this race (by a pound) & is surely being underrated by being put up as a 12/1 shot, Monterosso is trained by Al Zarooni & ridden by Mikael Barzalona & by all accounts they're now Godolphin's first trainer & jockey - not Bin Suroor & Dettori. Nathaniel is the closest to Monterosso in the ratings but hasn't raced since last October, his win in the King George over 2 furlongs further is great form though & John Gosden's horses are flying, we just feel he's a bit more of a stamina laden type than a true 10 furlong horse. Cityscape is the other top class horse here & the drying ground will help as it's far from certain whether this miler really will get 10 furlongs whilst Twice Over would previously have been a danger but now looks a horse in decline.

(Electrolyser is a bit of looker & but hopefully his rivals will only be seeing him from the rear)

In Sandown's following race we get to see a pretty competitive Listed staying contest in the Esher Stakes & it could be worth siding with Clive Cox's Electrolyser as quickish conditions should see him at his best over this true stayer distance. There isn't an awful lot between the runners on official ratings & Electrolyser will have to carry a penalty for his Nottingham win in April, he is pretty lightly raced for a 7 year old though & came 3rd in the race last year when just a 9/2 shot, he's more than  double that price this time around but could end up getting the crucial early lead he needs to show his best form. Chiberta King won the race last year & has since been competing in the top staying races but not faring particularly well although Andrew Balding's charge did run nicely on his comeback here at the end of May, he looks like he has a liking for the track & conditions will be fine - he must be rated a danger. It looks like Glen's Diamond will be prominent in the betting but his 4 wins have come over 5, 7, 9 & 10 furlongs - anyone backing Fahey's runner here is taking a big old risk that he really wants 2 miles against some confirmed stayers. Cavalryman has previously been a top racehorse but hasn't done a lot of winning in recent years, his win at York last time was a very soft Listed contest & he'll have to carry a penalty for that as he tries 2 miles for the first time. These stayers can be frustratingly inconsistent so we have to look for one at decent odds & we'll take Electrolyser to defy carrying a 3 pound penalty at decent odds of 16/1, at that price he becomes a solid each way bet too.

(Non-runner now) Over at Haydock the ground will still have a bit of juice left in it but that won't bother Rod Millman's colt Yes Two in the nursery race, he's carrying quite a bit more weight than the others but that's because he's shown the best form & on top of that is probably just about the most unexposed too. Yes Two ran well on debut before then making all successfully at Doncaster, having subsequent Listed 2nd Top Boy back in 3rd place. After that Yes Two faced a pretty impossible task when finishing 4th in a Listed race at Naas where the talented Dawn Approach won well, he had Aidan O'Brien's Pedro The Greta behind that day & that one was subsequently priced up at just 6/4 for the Group Two Railway Stakes & that indicates a mark of 85 for Yes Two is not too harsh from the handicapper. Fortinbrass is probably the biggest danger here but that one had a tough race in heavy ground just three weeks ago & has raced 4 times versus Yes Two's 3 runs. If we can get odds of 4/1 or above for Yes two we think he's a solid win chance & almost certain to grab some place money - get on!

Selections:
Sandown 3.45 - Monterosso to win at 12/1 (various)
Sandown 4.20 - Electrolyser each way at 16/1 (Coral) (Only 7 runners now so only 2 places, Betfair still running to 3 on their place market)
Haydock 4.00 - Yes Two each way at 4/1 or bigger (Non-runner)

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