2000 Guineas - Take a winning Approach

The first two Classics of the season are upon us as Newmarket hosts the 2,000 Guineas for colts on Saturday & the fillies equivalent in the 1,000 Guineas on Sunday, we're taking a look at both races as we look to continue selecting winners on the flat.


Saturday 3.50 Newmarket - 2,000 Guineas

(Godolphin owned Dawn Approach can provide his Dubai owners with some much needed joy)

We were pretty sweet on the chances of Richard Hannon's Toronado in his Guineas trial the Craven & the High Chaparral colt won in impressive style over the course & distance & deserves to be riding high in the betting. The Craven was just a four runner affair though & the runner up Havana Gold, whilst a nice type probably isn't a star & it looked like Toronado was far better suited to the conditions than his rivals there, of course those are the same as here with ground conditions similar too & jockey Richard Hughes should have him well positioned. As good as Toronado may be we've a suspicion that he looks more of a Derby type, especially how he's finished his races, & last season's star colt Dawn Approach looks the better option right now.

Jim Bolger's colt won the excellent Guineas trial the Dewhurst here at the end of last season just like his sire New Approach who finished 2nd in the 2008 version of this race. That Dewhurst win followed 5 previous wins from 5 starts including excellent victories at Royal Ascot & in the Group One National Stakes at the Curragh. Although Dawn Approach hasn't won over the distance yet there seems little doubt he'll get it as wins on softish ground over just a furlong shorter suggest a mile looks the perfect distance. There are discrepancies in price thanks to support for Toronado in the last week or so & Dawn Approach is available at 15/8 with (BetVictor) whilst as short as 5/4 with Ladbrokes, that 15/8 looks worthy of a significant wager.

Of the other contenders Aidan O'Brien's three entries have to be worth looking at considering his great record in the race with 6 previous wins including last year with the great Camelot - Cristoforo Colombo looks his number one chance with son, & Irish champion jockey, Joseph O'Brien taking the mount. Cristoforo Colombo has only won once in five runs & has already lost to Dawn Approach (in the Coventry at Royal Ascot) & we were slightly surprised that Mars wasn't the first choice even though the beautifully bred Galileo colt has only run one time before. Richard Hannon's other entry Van Der Neer has a very nice turn of foot & could offer value if you do look outside of the first two in the betting but we're confident that Dawn Approach can win with style.

Sunday 3.50 Newmarket - 1,000 Guineas

The 1,000 Guineas looks an altogether more open affair with no standout filly in the market & we like the chances of another French winner after Natagora in 2008 & Special Duty in 2010 with Mikel Delzangles' What A Name looking to hold a leading chance.

(What A Name can take the 2013 1,000 Guineas trophy to France)

What A Name was beaten just over a length by Olympic Glory at Longchamp on Arc weekend & that looks probably the best bit of form on offer (we reckon Olympic Glory will win the French 2,000 Guineas). We like the breeding of What A Name with her being by Mr Greeley & that should mean that quickish ground should hold no worries & her rider Christophe Lemaire has already won the race before & should be able to get her well placed from her stall 12 draw.

The favourite Hot Snap has only raced twice & looks to be at the head of the market on promise & thanks to the deserved reputation of trainer Henry Cecil as a master trainer of fillies. Although the win in the Nell Gwyn was impressive by Hot Snap we're not sure that the runner up Sky Lantern is as good as her official rating suggests & odds of 11/4 are too short. We're convinced What A Name will run into a place at a minimum & that means that a hefty each way bet at odds of 5/1 looks a good way to guarantee a return - we think she'll win & that could mean a highly profitable weekend of racing.

Selections:
Dawn Approach to win 2,000 Guineas at 15/8 (BetVictor)
What A Name each way for the 1,000 Guineas at 5/1 (General)

Toronado to leave Craven rivals in a spin

Newmarket's Craven meeting has its feature race on Thursday with the 2,000 Guineas trial the Craven Stakes seeing four already high class colts from top stables battle it out for a £34,000 winning prize & the chance to press their Classic claims. We're taking a look at the Craven plus the Wood Ditton stakes for unraced 3 year olds as we look for more steady profit.

2.20 Newmarket

The Wood Ditton is always an intriguing race as none of the horses have raced before (the conditions of the race have changed over the years) & are starting out over a mile at Newmarket's expansive track & the entries tend to come from the top stables - this means you need something relatively forward with the right temperament & a bit of class - easy to find eh?! The horse that we like is Mahmood Al Zarooni's Bustopher, an Elusive Quality colt out of a Storm Cat mare.

(Mahmood Al Zarooni can take the Wood Ditton with Bustopher)

Al Zarooni won with his very first runner of the British season with Improvisation winning her maiden impressively here on Wednesday, she already had the form in the book to do it (3rd behind useful Steeler) but it was an indication that Zarooni's horses have travelled back from Dubai well. Godolphin pioneered the idea of horses wintering in warmer climates than here in the UK & exploited it to outstanding effect well over a decade ago, improvements in training techniques have eroded the advantage they gained there but this year's miserable UK winter may see them get some early season joy with their string. Bustopher has leading Godolphin jockey Mikael Barzalona on board & should find the ground to his liking.

Chief danger may be Richard Hannon's Gerrards Cross as it's by smart sire Cape Cross & the stable have excellent strength in depth & will have sent a good one here, his half brother Perilously hasn't managed a win in 10 tries flat or jumps though. Take a chance on Bustopher at odds around 5/1, any market confidence should be noted.

4.05 Newmarket - Group 3 Craven Stakes

Only a small field for the Craven this year but all four horses have official ratings of 110 or more & all have won in pattern company before so this is a really nice race & could be a real indicator for the first classic of the year. Toronado is the one that has done the most already & Richard Hannon's High Chapparal colt carries a 3 pound penalty compared to the rest of the field for a Group Two win in the Champagne Stakes at Doncaster last September where he made all to defeat today's rival Dundonnell by half a length.

(Toronado can enhance his 2,000 Guineas claims)

Toronado was put away for the season after that Doncaster win & it could be argued that a 3 pound swing in the weights would put Dundonnell right up with his conqueror here but it looked like Toronado always had the better of things that day & his ability to be ridden from the front eliminates worries around this turning tactical.

Havana Gold was run 6 times last season & came up with four wins, once unseating Ryan Moore, & only losing when completing in a valuable sales race that Ghurair (running in the 2.55 today) took, that was impressive form but Richard Hughes takes Toronado's reins & his stablemate with just 3 runs looks less exposed. The Godolphin runner Tawhid won two races by some margin at the end of last year including the Group 3 Horris Hill stakes but the Invincible Spirit colt seemed to act particularly well on the very soft ground & won't get those conditions today, Saeed Bin Suroor's two runners on Wednesday finished 9th & 10th in two 10 runner races so he may need a couple of weeks to get firing.

Dundonnell is definitely a real danger, he was favourite when they met before & subsequently went on to start favourite & finish 4th in the Breeders' Cup Juvenile Turf so is clearly a very talented horse but today may not be quite the day to back him, he'll only be Roger Charlton's 8th runner of the season & taht suggests he's taking a patient approach with his nice string this year. Hannon is already firing & odds of 5/6 for a Toronado win look fair to us - take them.

Selections:
2.20 Newmarket - Bustopher to win at 5/1 (General)
4.05 Newmarket - Toronado to win at 5/6 (General)

2000 Guineas - Caspar to Spook more fancied rivals

Well this is what the flat aficionados have been waiting for with the first Classic of the season upon us with the Qipco 2,000 Guineas at Newmarket where we have a red-hot favourite in the form of Aidan O'Brien's Camelot.

(Camelot a deserving favourite? Yes. A deserving 5/4 favourite? Probably not)

Clearly Camelot deserves all the respect in the world with top connections & a very visually impressive win in a top two year old trial when taking the Racing Post Trophy over the same distance at Doncaster in just his second ever race. We have a feeling that the current odds being offered (7/4 tops right now but 5/4 elsewhere) can't really be justified though, this is no Frankel (went off 1/2 last year) & the horses in behind that day at Doncaster weren't necessarily world beaters. It was a small field of just 5 runners, the runner up had only won it's maiden before running in behind in two Group 3's, one rival was a stablemate, the horse finishing last was having it's 7th run of the year & although having won a Group 3 had also already finished stone last in the 9 runner Group 1 Goffs National. We did like the horse that finished 3rd, Fencing who is a rival today but also have a sneaking suspicion that Gosden's charge might be a tricky one to win with as he looks a horse with just one potent thrust & 7 furlongs might suit better. All of that being said Camelot did beat them all easily enough & soft ground at Newmarket shouldn't be a problem pedigree wise with Montjeus tending to like give, it might also help make this a bit more of a stamina test & that should suit as Montjeu really has a very poor record with milers & that also tempers enthusiasm at the likely odds. We've seen it so many times before where a fancied horse gets placed here before going on to glory at Epsom in the Derby & we think that could be the case once again with Camelot who could find one or two better suited to the mile here.

(Caspar Netscher left his rivals in the shade this day, can he do it in the 2,000 Guineas?)

We want things in our favour when betting & here there are a lot of unknowns with so many horses yet to race this season & prove they've trained on, plus many haven't encountered soft ground either, therefore we're happy to take a chance on Caspar Netscher whose win in the Greenham at Newbury a couple of weeks back entitles him to respect. It isn't just this year's win but also last year's form that is worthy of consideration, with Group 2 wins in the Gimcrack & Mill Reef stakes, they were both wins over 6 furlongs & the Greenham was over 7 & he looks quick enough but might just be able to last it out here with a bit of cover. Trainer Alan McCabe could seemingly hardly believe his luck to end up with such a good horse & ended up running his star 10 times in his two year old season, including a trip to the states where he started at just 8/1 to win the Breeders Cup Juvenile Turf race. That juvenile campaign should mean he's battle hardened & although unusual for European horses to run that often American trainers like to get plenty of runs into their horses, it doesn't appear to have emptied Caspar Netscher as he looked pretty good on his comeback in the Greenham, putting his rivals to the sword. We also think he was unlucky not to add a Group One when slowly away & finding enough trouble in the Middle Park before finishing a close up 5th, slow starts & traffic problems were a recurring theme last year but Newmarket's wide open spaces should help & they must have trained him plenty on the starting by now. At very big odds of 28/1 Caspar Netscher has to be the value each way selection here, he's very quick & stamina could fail coming towards the end but it's worth the risk, at least he's proven himself repeatedly unlike some others at much shorter prices based on pedigree alone (Born To Sea), the French raiders Abtaal & French Fifteen are also worthy of maximum respect.

(Temple Meads will be looking to send the mud flying on his belated return)

In the 3.45 Group 3 Palace House stakes we're going to go for another Mill Reef winner with Ed Mcmahon's returning Temple Meads, a smart novice who also finished 4th in 2010's Gimcrack. This race is over the minimum distance which tends to be the more traditional route for horses competing in the aforementioned races, rather than the Guineas like Caspar Netscher, Temple Meads showed some real quickness & won his first two races where soft was in the going description plus ran in the Middle Park (again like Caspar Netscher) when it was soft. The Middle Park was a disaster however with the saddle unfortunately slipping soon after the start & ruining his chances, it won't be easy after a break of 18 months but if coming back with the same talent intact then he's a great chance. There are other nice horses in the race with the consistent Hamish McGonagal, Eton rifles & the improving Mayson but they are all short enough & the value lies with Temple Meads with odds of 16/1 available at Ladbrokes who are also offering quarter the odds for each way bets on the race.
Selections:
Newmarket 3.10 - Caspar Netscher each way at 28/1 (SportingBet & BetVictor)
Newmarket 3.45 - Temple Meads each way at 16/1 (Ladbrokes)

Make the most of it - you won't see this price Twice Over

Newmarket's Craven meeting is when the flat season starts to get into the swing of things & Thursday sees the Craven itself plus another pattern race in the Group 3 Earl of Sefton stakes over 9 furlongs, it's this race that sees what could be an early betting highlight of this flat season.  

(Twice Over should give Tom Queally a steering job in Newmarket's Earl of Sefton Stakes)

Twice Over is one of the top horses in training, Timeform has Henry Cecil's 7 year old entire rated as the 14th best over all distances in the world & for there to be odds of 11/8 available for the four time Group One winner here is quite astonishing. The opposition here is reasonable for a Group 3 but nothing of the calibre that should be able to hold a candle to Twice Over, the next highest rated is Ransom Note who is rated 9 pounds inferior yet has to concede 5 pounds of weight to his rivals thanks to the conditions of the race. Twice Over easily defeated Ransom note at York last year & that was with him conceding 3 pounds, with an 8 pound swing in the favourites favour there should be little to fear from Charlie Hills' runner.

(Penitent (centre) just outpointed Questioningg (left) the other day but if you can find a match bet between the two we fancy Questioning to improve past the Doncaster winner)

Penitent & Questioning finished 1st & 2nd respectively in the Doncaster Mile a couple of weeks back & so at least have race fitness on their side, we'd be happy to take Questioning in a match bet between the two but both would need much improvement to beat Twice Over. In fact the only worry we have with the selction is that this is his seasonal debut & he's been beaten in the race before back in 2009, Cecil appears to have his string in fine order though with 3 winners from 9 runners so far & Twice Over has won on three occasions after a 60+ day break & also on debut so can go well fresh. We've no qualms about advising a maximum sized bet on Twice Over to win here, he's far superior to the opposition & breaks don't tend to harm his chances too much, get your money on at 11/8.

Selection:
Newmarket 4.45 - Twice Over to win at 11/8