NFL Week 17 - Eli Manning to lead Giants to the playoffs

It's the final round of regular season games in the NFL meaning there are plenty of games that have little bearing on the playoff picture & punters need to be mindful of teams resting key players in preparation for the knockout stages. Other games have much bigger significance with them helping to decide the final few teams to go to the playoffs or potential seedings meaning teams get byes from the 1st week of action or gain homefield advantage. We've taken these factors along with overall & current form of the teams as well as where there are favourable matchups on offense & defense to find the best bets for this week.

(Justin Smith & his 49ers defense can smother up the Rams - it's not difficult)

We're starting out at St. Louis where the Rams host the San Francisco 49ers as the away team try to win to secure the NFC's No. 2 seed & that important first round bye, that shouldn't be in any danger of not happening as the 49ers have lost just 3 times this year whilst the Rams have won just twice. Last time the teams met the excellent 49ers defense shut out the Rams in a 26-0 win & St. Louis again failed to put a single point on the board last week against the Steelers. In terms of offensive yards per game the Rams are ranked 2nd last but in points gained they're the worst by a distance with just 166 all season at an average of 11.1 per game & they've scored 20 points or more just twice, that is not good news against this 49ers defense that lead the league in points given up a game at just 13.5 & only let in their first rushing touchdown of the year last week. The 49ers have the best run defense statistically & that's unfortunate for Rams running back Steven Jackson as usually so much of their game depends on him, they may also be without quarterback Sam Bradford who wasn't involved last week & may well be rested again here. So we've identified that the Rams aren't going to contribute too many points in this one, maybe a couple of field goals if they're lucky so we should back total Rams points to be under 13 at 5/6 with Betfred.

The 49ers aren't exactly offesive powerhouses themselves, instead relying on their ace defense led by top defensive end Justin Smith, they often settle for field goals & luckily have one of the league's best kickers in David Ackers. They should be able to score against the Rams as St.Louis are jsut average on defense but it's unlikely to be too high scoring for the 49ers either who may well bench their starters if they get a two touchdown lead. The total points line is set at 35.5 & as we can't seeSt. Louis contributing much at all backing under total points of 35.5 is the way to go.

(Happy - the Pathers' quarterback Cam Newton, he can be after this one too)

In a game that only has significance to the playoff picture if the 49ers have an unlikely loss in our first game the New Orleans Saints take on the Carolina Panthers in the Superdome where the home side Saints have won all of their games so far. It's an interesting one as the Saints have been talking about resting their superstar quarterback Drew Brees (as they think it's so likely the 49ers will win their game), we don't think that's too likely as the man who's just broken the long held season passing yards record won't want to give that up a week later by not playing & allowing the Patriots' Tom Brady to surpass him. It is however a consideration & when takien into account with the Panthers big upswing in form where they've won 4 of their last 5 after having won just twice in the first 10 games it means that the Saints probably shouldn't be quite such hot favourites. Carolina's rookie quarterback has records of his own with most passing yards by a rookie & the most rushing touchdowns of any quarterback in a single season, he's huge, quick & accurate & looks to have all the makings of a genuine star for the NFL for the next decade, if only his defense weren't giving up 25.6 yards a game they could have competed this year. Cam will want to show what he can do against New Orleans who are ranked 30th against the pass & this could be a shootout, we don't want to back over points as it is sett at a very high 54 but instead are going with a value pick of the Panthers to win at odds of 11/4.

(3rd most receiving yards in the league - the Giants' Victor Cruz)

The biggest game this week is the last one on the card & is between two of the glamour sides with the Dallas Cowboys taking on the New York Giants in a one game decider for the NFC East division & who gets to progress to the playoffs. The sides met just 3 weeks ago with the Giants eventually coming out victorious at Cowboys Stadium in a 37-34 win & the Giants are also coming off a nice win last week against city rivals the New York Jets whilst the Cowboys took a beating from the now eliminated form the playoffs Philadelphia Eagles. So clearly New York have the current momentum but overall even though both sides have 8-7 winning records the Giants have better overall form as the Cowboys have only beaten one side that currently hold a winning record against the 49ers back in week 2. The Giants meanwhile were looking like a very good side as they lost just twice in their first 8 before losing 4 consecutive games against some of the best sides around in the 49ers, Eagles, Saints & Packers, they've rallied again winning 3 of their last 4.

The Cowboys need DeMarcus Ware to have a great game & get to Eli Manning in the backfield if they are going to stop the Giants big passing game but that won't be easy against the Giants good pass protection that have only allowed 26 sacks this year, Dallas managed none last time they played the Giants. Manning should also have his full set of receivers to pass to & they are all very good with Hakeem Nicks & Mario Manningham both shrugging off minor injuries to back up breakout star Victor Cruz & cause Dallas problems in both the deep & sort threat. Manning has had to throw the ball an awful lot as his rush offense is ranked the league's worst with just 88.1 yards on the ground per game, they could really do with Brandon Jacobs using his size to wear down the Cowboys offensive line. In the backfield on defense the Giants are pretty, pretty, pretty bad & they've given up 58 plays of 20 yards or more which is a worry against the flashy Cowboys offense led by quarterback Tony Romo.

(Laurent Robinson can at least get himself a touchdown even though the Cowboys look likely to exit the playoff picture)

Romo is a good quarterback but is regarded as somewhat of a 'choker' when the pressure's on & Cowboys fans won't have been happy to see the pictures last week where he had to benched after injuring his hand whilst hitting an Eagles player's helmet when passing, that hand is supposed to still be swollen & the Giants will come after it. One of Romo's favourite targets Miles Austin has had a quietish season but Jason Witten & Dez Bryant have continued to be reliable & Laurent Robinson has really stepped up, we rate him the most likely scorer aginst the Giants who let in a lot of passing touchdowns & the 13/8 on offer with Coral for Robinson to score at anytime is like buying money. Overall though we have to side with the home team who have the psychological advantage of beating Dallas in a close overtime game just 3 weeks ago & have a superior passing game, backing the Giants with -3 points on the handicap at 10/11 means if they do win by just a field goal you'll get your stake returned, they can win by more than that to make it a very happy New Year.

Selections:
St. Louis Rams to score less than 13 points at 5/6 (Betfred) v San Francisco 49ers
Total points to be under 35.5 in 49ers v Rams game at 10/11 (general)
Carolina Panthers to beat New Orleans Saints at 11/4 (general)
New York Giants to beat Dallas Cowboys with -3 points at 10/11 (general)
Laurent Robinson to score anytime at 13/8 (Coral) in Cowboys v Giants game