(The defenses will be key & the Ravens' D is as strong as it gets)
In Sunday's first game the Houston Texans travel to face off against the Baltimore Ravens in a game where both sides have very similar strengths as they are both best in the running game & their excellent defenses. The Texans defense improved from being statistically th 2nd worst in the league last year to 2nd best this year & their signed this season defensive co-ordinator Wade Phillips deserves enormous credit as well as the new talent they brought in, we mentioned J.J. Watts last week as a favourite of ours & the rookie defensive end came up with a great performance as they beat Cincinnati in a hugely professional display. Watts will look to get after Ravens passer Joe Flacco at every opportunity & rightly so, as far as we're concerned the Ravens succeed in spite of the man under centre rather than because of him. Flacco is distinctly average & it's hard to see Baltimore wining Super Bowls with him, it's a pity as they have a top running back in Ray Rice & legendary defenders in Ray Lewis, Ed Reed & Terrell Suggs. Flacco isn't helped by the lack of depth they have in receivers as they look primarily to Anquan Boldin & Torrey Smith, that will help the Texans as they'll go to man coverage to crowd those two out of the game. The key to the Ravens offense will as usual be their 5"8 rusher Ray Rice, he's quick & extremely elusive, getting big plays to the outside & right through the middle, Rice is great but maybe not quite so great as the Texans' main man.
(Power, pace & plenty of moves - Arian Foster is the complete back)
The Texans' running back Arian Foster seems to get better & better, he had a few injury problems at the start of the season but once he got into his stride was unstoppable, ending up with 10 TDs on the ground & 2 receiving scores. Foster's a lot bigger than Rice at 6"1 but he's still elusive as he has some great moves & excellent vision, he is thriving as he knows their success rests largely on his shoulders now they havea 3rd choice quarterback thanks to unfortunate luck with injuries. It is almost inevitable that Foster will score at some point & Ladbrokes offer of 4/6 is generous - take it. Having T.J. Yates at centre isn't ideal but he coped very well last week & their playbook tends not to rely on him pasing to much anyway, they ran the ball more than anyone apart from the Broncos in the regular season. Not passing means that th Ravens will struggle to creae the turnovers that they are so good at usually & when the Texans do go to th air they have one of the premier receivers around in Andre Johnson, if he has the ball he won't be coughing it up with fumbles. An extra bonus for Houston has been the emergence of secondary running back Ben Tate & his good performances ensure that Foster doesn't get worn out from aways running the ball, he's better than the Ravens backup Ricky Williams & could be a factor. The Ravens cearly hold an advantage, they are at home & rested last week & the colder conditions should suit them slightly better but these are closely matched teams. Although Baltimore won 29-14 in their regular season meeting that game was very close until the 4th quarter & Arian Foster's season hdn't quite got going at that point, the ods available mean that we're happy to take the Ravens on & instead back Houston for the upset at odds of 3/1.
(Eli Manning is still in the hunt for his 2nd Super Bowl)
The New York Giants hae to go to Lambeau Field & face the formidable Green Bay Packers after their demolition of the Atlanta Falcons last week, this won't be so easy & we can't imagine the Packers scoring will be limited to just a safety. If the Giants could continue to run the ball like last week it would bode well but that was an anomaly as they ranked dead last in the rushing game in the regular season, they'll continue to go to Eli Manning who has been deadly down the back stretch with powerful & accurate throws to his receivers. Manning will need to be accurate as this Green Bay defense is built for interceptions & takeaways, they ranked last in passing yards conceded but had 8 more interceptions than anyone else, averaging near enough two picks a game. The stats ranking them last are slightly miseading as teams were having to go to the air as they were left trailing by the scary Packer offense, clearly the Packers secondary is not elite but it isn't dreadful either.
(We're hoping to see Jermichael Finley (no.88) making the Lambeau Leap)
When they met earlier in the year, at New York, there were only 3 points to separate them as Green Bay prevailed, that implies another close game but overall the Packers are more convincing having lost just once all year & quarterback Aaron Rodgers has now had 3 weeks rest after they played backup Matt Flynn in the last regular season game. Rodgers choice of receivers to pass to is amazing & he will almost certainly be able to burn the rubbish Giants secondary by going to any of Donald Driver, James Jones, Jermichael Finley, Jordy Nelson & the returning Greg Jennings. Finley looks likely to be able to exploit the Giants in the short to medium game & will look to create mismatches aginst linebackers, he's an awesome 6/5 to score at anytime with SkyBet, he can also be backed at 10/1 to score the 1st touchdown. The Giants do have weapons & receivers Hakeem Nicks & Victor Cruz can have good games, they'll need their defense to be firing on all cylinders to stand a chance & Jason Pierre-Paul will be doing his best, he's a star but it will likely be a long day for him & the rest of the defense unless the running game gets going for the Giants & they can manage the clock. At 30/100 the Packers are probably a little too short but backing them to be winning at half time & full time at 4/6 is reasonable & looks the way to go.
Selections:
Houston Texans to beat Baltimore Ravens at 3/1 (Ladbrokes & Victor Chandler)
Arian Foster to score a touchdown at anytime at 4/6 (Ladbrokes)
Green Bay Packers to be winning at half time & full time at 4/6 (Boylesports)
Jermichael Finley to score a touchdown at anytime at 6/5 (SkyBet) & to score 1st TD at 10/1 (various)
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