(Arian Foster with 12 TDs already this year - you've guessed it, he's getting another here)
First up are our pre-season tip the Houston Texans against the tough AFC North's third placed team the Cincinnati Bengals in a battle of rookie quarterbacks with the Texans' 3rd string passer T.J. Yates & the Bengals' impressive 2nd round draft pick Andy Dalton. This is the Texans first ever trip to the playoffs in their 10 year history & with a bit more luck on the injury front they would have been strong contenders for the outright win, they lost quarterback Matt Schaub in week 10, then his backup Matt Leinart in their next game, star defender Mario Williams has been out since week 5 & arguably the best wide receiver in the league Andre Johnson's played in just 7 games. Johnson is in for this one which is a boost & clearly the Texans are a solid all round team as they ranked 2nd overall on defensive yards given up behind only the legendary Steelers D, they beat the Bengals on the road in week 14 to seal their playoff place & although they lost theirr last 3 games they didn't look to be playing so hard once they got that playoff spot. The Texans don't give up many big passing plays which will help blunt some of A.J. Green's threat & are excellent against the run so won't be worried by Cedric Benson who's had a solid but unspectacular season. For a team with a very inexperienced quarterback Houston still have a chance of navigating the playoffs thanks to their excellent running game (ranked 2nd) led by star Arian Foster & ably backed up by the ever-improving Ben Tate, Foster will almost certainly score at some point the short odds of 2/5 should be taken & the juicy 5/1 for him to score first. The Texans should win thanks to their solid defense but we can't take odds of 1/2 so we'll stick to Foster scoring & stay happy that our bet at the start of the season for the Super Bowl at 28/1 is still in with a chance.
(Jimmy Graham can get at least one touchdown in a Saints victory)
In the late Saturday game the Detroit Lions face a monstrous task in taking on 2009 Super Bowl winners the New Orleans Saints at the Superdome. They've already faced off here once, in week 13 & the Saints were just too good for the Lions who've had a decent but far from outstanding season with most of their wins coming against lower class opposition & tending to struggle against the better teams. Detroit have a very good young passer in Matt Stafford & this year's outstanding wide receiver Calvin 'Megatron' Johnson, he's their standout star but that does allow teams to come up with a game plan against them. With New Orleans it's tough to pick out a receiving 'star' as Brees tends to spread his passes out with 7 players having 30+ receptions, tight end Jimmy Graham's as close as it gets to number one with 99 grabs & 11 touchdowns, at 4/7 he's a reasonable price to score at anytime. Drew Brees has just been incredible this year & is now the holder of the all-time single season passing yards record finally surpassing Dan Marino's 1984 record, the offensive line keep him safe & with enough time to pick his passes, he should have another good game here. As great as the Saints passing game is they also have a pretty potent ground game with their triple threat backs Mark Ingram, Darren Sproles & Pierre Thomas, that excellent offense makes up for a defense that's only average but probably looks worse statistically due to teams having to chase the Saints when trailing late on. In 12 of New Orleans' 13 wins they were winning at half time so the best bet looks to be backing the Saints to be winning at half time & full time at 2/5, it's certainly more backable than getting on them at 2/11.
Like we said we already got on the Texans in pre-season but they look to have been too hard hit by injuries to go all the way now but our pick in the 2nd game the New Orleans Saints look to be the team to take on the Packers in the NFC & at odds of 16/5 to win the conference look a great value bet. They won't have to face Green Bay until the Championship game if the Packers themselves progress that far, we don't think it'll be a problem for the Saints as they'll beat Detroit here & can take the 49ers apart next week, if the Packers matchup happens it'll be a shootout & we don't mind having Drew Brees on our side!
(Isaac Redman (with the ball!) can step up & help the Steelers tough it out through the playoffs)
In the AFC we're starting to like the look of the Pittsburgh Steelers as outright favourites the New England Patriots look to be a hugely vulnerable side after coming back from big deficits to weak teams in the past 3 weeks. Pittsburgh already beat them this year & should prevail with ease against Tebow & the Broncos on Sunday, if Houston win the Steelers will go straight to Foxborough otherwise they'll be up against deadly rivals the Ravens. Baltimore did the double over them in the regular season but the Steelers are supremely confident they can turn that around in a one-off game & there's no way we want to be with the Ravens for winning big games whilst they have the mediocre Joe Flacco under centre. If the Steelers face New England they can shut down their explosive offense whilst still putting up points themselves & they can come out on top of any tough battles against the Ravens, at 5/1 for the AFC Pittsburgh must be backed. The Steelers biggest problem is running back Rashard Mendenhall picking up a season ending injury in their last game but we've never felt he's a franchise running back, Isaac Redman can step up & they're basically a passing team now anyway.
(Drew Brees is looking awesome & he can grab the Lombardi trophy just like 2 years ago)
So, we're going for a Steelers/Saints final with the double paying out just over 24/1 with Victor Chandler, Black & Gold supporters would be happy with that game & it would be hugely exciting to see the best offense match up against the best defense & see which comes out on top. They say defenses win championships but we're starting to think the Saints can follow up their success two years ago & they're our outright pick at 5/1, if they do win it's almost inevitable that Drew Brees will get the MVP award & backing him at a nice price of 7/1 in Ladbrokes Super Bowl MVP market is a good a bet as any.
Selections:
New Orleans Saints to beat Detroit lions at half time & full time at 2/5 (William Hill)
Jimmy Graham to score at anytime at 4/7 (Skybet) Lions v Saints game
Arian Foster to score 1st touchdown at 5/1 (William Hill) & anytime at 2/5 (Coral) Bengals v Texans game
Playoff outright bets:
New Orleans Saints to win the NFC at 16/5 (Victor Chandler) & Pittsburgh Steelers to win AFC at 5/1 (Victor Chandler) with a double paying out odds of just over 24/1
New Orleans Saints to win Super Bowl at 5/1 (various)
Drew Brees to be the Super Bowl MVP (Most Valuable Player) at 7/1 (Ladbrokes)
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