Last Sunday was horrible for us betting wise as both the Atlanta Falcons & Pittsburgh Steelers woefully underperformed to lose to the Giants & Broncos respectively, as contests though they were exciting games & this weekend should see some quality contests between the 8 teams left with a chance of a Super Bowl ring. We're kicking off with Saturday's games at New England & San Francisco as we try to find an edge to help turn a nice profit.
(Workhorse Frank Gore will have been glad of last week's bye - his running has carried the 49ers offense in 2011)
The day's first game sees a classic offense versus defense matchup as the hugely exciting
New Orleans Saints travel to take on the resilient San Francisco 49ers at Candlestick Park. We're normally big fans of great defenses coming out on top of great offenses but we're pretty sweet on the Saints in this one especially now that the season seems to be being dominated by great quarterbacks & you could argue that Drew Brees is the best of the lot with the most yards & touchdown passes this year. The Saints were less than perfect against the Lions last week & trailed at the half but came through with a dominant 2nd half display to win 45-28, the 49ers don't have the offensive weapons of Detroit & it would be surprising if they could get anyway near their total.
(Jimmy Graham just keeps getting it done & he can score again against San Francisco)
Led by Alex Smith at quarterback the 49ers ranked just 26th in total offense but 4th on defense & lost just 3 times, of course it did help that the were in the awful NFC West meaning 6 of their games were against the lowest of low grade opposition. To be blunt Smith really isn't a very good quarterback but the 49ers realised this & attempted to pass the ball less than anyone apart from the Broncos, that seemed to help Smith who threw just 5 interceptions & 17 touchdowns, instead the bulk of the work has been left to power running back Frank Gore. Gore was handed the ball over 280 times in the year & gained 1,211 yards with 8 TDs, he's an all-action back & willl cause New Orleans defense trouble who concede a very high average of 5 yards a rushing attempt. When they do pass it will be to Michael Crabtree &
Vernon Davis, tight end Davis had 6 touchdowns on the year & looks the man to get another in this one
at odds of 6/5 to score a TD at anytime he looks a good bet. Their defense is the real star & are particularly good at stopping the run, NaVorro Bowman has been freakishly effective with 143 combined tackles & the rookie Aldon Smith had 14 sacks. They'll have to be at their best to stop the Saints as they've been unstoppable, they have a pretty good run game but will happily abandon it if it's ineffective & relying on Brees is no bad thing, he'll connect on most passes as usual & will unlikely give up too many chances of an interception. Tight end
Jimmy Graham came up good for us last week &
can score again at odds of 4/6 to add to the 12 TDs he has for the season. The
Saints defense could have some fun too as they blitz the second most in the league, it's the right thing to do here as Alex Smith is a weak link & we think even though they are away they can win this big &
should be backed to win with -3.5 points on the handicap at 10/11.
(The Broncos v Patriots - otherwise known as the Tim Tebow show)
In Foxborough the
New England Patriots host the Denver Broncos & Tebowmania is running wild with everybody talking & writing about him after the Broncos surprise win against the highly fancied Steelers. We'll have our say about Tim Tebow's performnce straight away, he ran the option well as usual but wasn't spectaclar in the running game & we feel that some of his throwing in terms of distance acuracy was particularly poor, throwing passes over heads or into the ground. He was fortunate to come up against a Steelers secondary that didn't appear even remotely capable against the deep threat meaning when he did throw reasonable deep pases the were made & drew big rewards. Tim may as well stick to the same plan here as the Patriots secondary sucks & Demaryius Thomas will be hoping so as he came up with a monstrous 204 receiving yards from just 4 receptions. The Broncos real strength is in their running game which is helpful as Tebow really isn't accurate enough to be relied on, but New England aren't bad against the run & give up a reasonable 4.6 yards per rushing attempt. Willis McGahee & Tim Tebow will need to find ways to keep the running game going to keep the ball on their offense & away from the Patriots & top passer Tom Brady.
(Wes Welker is the league's leading receiver yet available at 15/2 to score 1st - get on!)
Brady was awesome as usual during the season, completing nearly 66% of passes & hitting receivers for 39 touchdowns, when he's in the zone it looks impossible for him to throw a bad pass & he has great chemistry with his receivers. The tight ends Aaron Hernandez & particularly Rob Gronkowski along with wide receiver
Wes Welker are Brady's favourite targets & the league leading
Welker looks a great price to score first at 15/2, he had the most receiving yards in the league & caught 22 more passes than his nearest challenger - he's a lethal weapon & will be looked to here. The Patriots can run the ball too & although BenJarvus Green-Ellis will get most carries we love to see tiny Danny Woodhead running the ball against guys twice his size, he makes the most of being small to get through gaps & even gets his share of passes. New England hve developed a bad habit of falling behind (by sizeable margins) but then coming back supremely strongly, with the number one seed giving them a bye last week coach Bill Belichick will have tried to solve that problem, the Broncos may not have the offensive capability to take advantage anyway. Last week will have been physically & emotionally draining for the Broncos & we expect New England to dominate from start to finish,
back the Patriots to be winning at half time & full time at odds of 30/100 for a real 'like buying money' bet.
Selections:
New Orleans Saints to beat San Francisco 49ers with -3.5 points at 10/11 (general)
Vernon Davis to score a Touchdown at anytime at 6/5 (Skybet)
Jimmy Graham to score a Touchdown at anytime at 4/6 (general)
New England to beat Denver Broncos half time/full at 3/10 (Boylesports, Coral & William Hill)
Wes Welker to score first touchdown at 15/2 (Paddy Power)
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