Premier League 2013-14 Antepost Season Preview - Relegation & Golden Boot

The general consensus was that the 2012-13 Premier League season was not a vintage year & it probably didn't help that the race for the title was effectively over by mid-January thanks to Manchester United's blisteringly winning form. 2013-14 looks to be shaping up nicely though with plenty of new faces on the pitch & in the dugouts & we've taken a look through the markets to try to identify some value, season-long bets.

Relegation:

Last year we got it spectacularly wrong when selecting West Bromwich Albion to be relegated, we reckoned that with a new manager in place & a lack of high profile names that they would struggle but Steve Clarke had his men raring to go at the start of the season (26 points from the first 39 available) & the excellent Romelu Lukaku's goals helped steer them to an unlikely 8th place finish.

(West Brom could suffer without Lukaku's goals & Shane Long doesn't inspire us with confidence)

Of course the upside of West Brom doing so well last season is that their price for relegation this year is a rather large 9/1 (BetVictor) & there's reason to believe that may just be value this time around. Last year the Baggies were just 4/1 for relegation & we thought that was justified due to the apparent lack of goals in the side (Lukaku had not shown anywhere near the same level of form when appearing for a superior Chelsea side) & of course with him returning to London it seems fair to raise that question again. Shane Long scored 8 times in the league last year (3 times from February onwards) & at times looked shorn of confidence when in front of goal & the signing of Nicolas Anelka at the ripe old age of 34 doesn't inspire confidence. Matej Vydra could be making his way to the Midlands via a loan signing & he was certainly great for Watford in the Championship but this is a step up on the defences he faced there. Another mooted signing is Man City flop Scott Sinclair but he may be rusty after not playing much football & occasionally appears a little lightweight.

West Brom do look better at the back than their lacklustre attack & we're particularly fans of Ben Foster in goal, he seems a serious footballer who seems happier at a slightly smaller Premier League club like West Brom. Foster will be seeing a fine footballer step into the back four in the form of Uruguay captain Diego Lugano at centre back, he's on loan from French champions PSG, understandably not being able to get ahead of their Brazilian contingent of defenders. The worry with Lugano is that he turns 33 in November & hasn't played a lot of club football in the past two seasons & he may not have quite the motivation of other contracted players if they do start to struggle. Jonas Olsson was in fine form last year & has been a fine servant for the club, he'll surely be one of the first names on the team sheet again. West Brom are weaker elsewhere in defence though & it seemed some players stepped up on all known form last year including Liam Ridgewell, Billy Jones & Gareth McAuley - we can't see them having such good seasons again.

(Gareth McAuley & others overperformed last season & a reversion could see the Baggies in danger)

In midfield Mulumbu & Yacob are solid but a lack of creativity, particularly from wide areas, that will be needed to supply that unconvincing attack, looks likely to cost them. We can't see how they'll replace Lukaku's goals, many of which were scored by him seemingly through sheer force of will, & their 53 goals scored total from 2012-13 (remember boosted by the freak 5-5 with Man Utd) will drop considerably & wins will start turning to draws & draws to losses. The 9/1 for West Brom to fill one of the relegation spots is too much of a tempter & a small bet over the season could offer a very nice return.

Golden Boot

Talking of goals this year's top scorer market seems an interesting one with Robin van Persie deservedly topping the betting as he's been the winner for the past two seasons & already looks sharp judging by his two goals in the Community Shield. van Persie's odds of 7/2 are short enough though considering he has tended to pick up injuries through his career until these last two years, if you could guarantee he'd play 30+ games he'd be an automatic pick but we'd rather go for a player at bigger odds.

(Spurs' record signing Roberto Soldado is a top marksman & can strike at 20/1)

Roberto Soldado is the man we like to make a big impact in his Premier League debut season & although foreign imports have never won this particular race in their first season we reckon he has the right circumstances to do it. He's easily banged goals in at a rate of more than one every other game for the past 4 seasons in Spain & that includes a stint for Getafe where he scored 33 in 66 over two seasons & his league goals tally reads 16, 18, 17 & 24 for the last 4 terms. He'll be playing in a Spurs side that is full of creative talent in midfield with Aaron Lennon, Gylfi Sigurdsson, Moussa Dembele, Lewis Holtby & exciting new signing Paulinho all providing him with opportunities.
 
We've purposely left Gareth Bale off of that list as he looks fairly likely to head off to Madrid by the time the transfer window shuts & that wouldn't necessarily be a bad thing for Soldado's chances as Spurs tended to fall into a habit of letting Bale rescue them last year but they'll have to impose themselves more without him. The Europa League could prove a distraction but we imagine that Spurs will field a shadow side for the league stage & Soldado should see plenty of Premier League games & seems to have the type of game to excel in England with a willingness to shoot on site that has certainly evaded Emmanuel Adebayor at times, a player who could end up providing a lot of chances if selected to play as a strike partner.

(van Persie is a deserving favourite in the Golden Boot market)

At odds of 20/1 Soldado looks a solid option away from van Persie when you consider Man City will rotate their strikers aroun, the dangerous Luis Suarez will be banned for the first part of the season & Wayne Rooney's status remains up in the air. Back him & take the each way terms of 1/4 odds for the first 4 places & he should be in contention all season.

Selections:
West Bromwich Albion to be relegated at 9/1 (BetVictor)
Robert Soldado each way to win the Golden Boot at 20/1 (1/4 odds 1-2-3-4)

Shooutouts in North London & North Carolina

We're feeling a bit happier now as our success rate over the last couple of weeks has improved as the football season has started to mature a little, those few more games really make a difference as you get to see how teams perform against different styles & quality & means betting can be that bit more informed. We were delighted to see Real Madrid keep pushing to the end on Tuesday night & Bradford did things a little more easily as the pair brought in both our bets - this Thursday we're going back to Europe as we look at the Europa League & Spurs' opening assignment plus NFL betting as the New York Giants travel to Carolina.

Tottenham Hotspur vs Lazio

 (Jermain Defoe is relishing currently being the main man for club & country)

Spurs start their Europa League assault against Italian side Lazio at White Hart Lane, manager Andre Villas-Boas won the trophy in 2011 with Porto & has vowed to take the competition seriously unlike previous boss Harry Redknapp. Spurs won their first game of the season on Sunday vs Reading thanks to a brace from in-form striker Jermain Defoe & he will likely lead the line again with Emmanuel Adebayor sidelined. French captain Hugo Lloris & Clint Dempsey are likely to make their first starts for the club & fringe players Michael Dawson, Steven Caulker, Tom Huddlestone & Andros Townsend could feature

Lazio have made an impressive start to the Serie A season with three straight wins against Atalanta, Palermo & Chievo Verona. Brazilian midfielder Hernanes & veteran striker Miroslav Klose have scored six of their seven goals so far & they should line-up in a similar fashion to the one that beat Chievo. Both sides are packed with high quality attacking options & with Spurs' record of conceding & scoring in every game so far this season the 10/11 on both teams to score looks a solid bet.

New York Giants at Carolina Panthers

The Carolina Panthers came up with a nice result when turning over the New Orleans Saints on Sunday & they now host another of the NFC's big hitters as champions the New York Giants look to continue to put points on the board after outgunning Tampa Bay 41-34 at the weekend. The Buccaneers actually provide us with a bit of a form guide as Carolina took them on in week one in a very different contest where the Tampa Bay prevailed with a 16-10 victory in a rather dour affair. The Panthers really struggled to run the ball in that week one game & that could be the Giants' key to slowing them down as quarterback Cam Newton is just about the most mobile starter in the league & keeps any defense guessing. The Giants are especially good in the pass rush though meaning they'll be coming after Newton with regularity but the defense will need to be sharp as they're missing a couple of starters on offense.

(Brandon LaFell hauls one in against the Saints as he gains 90 receiving yards)

The Giants' starting running back Ahmad Bradshaw is out with a foot injury & Andre Brown will line up as starter instead, he did well against Tampa Bay with 71 rushing yards & there's no reason he won't get some success here. Bigger for the Giants is that key receiver Hakeem Nicks is out - he looked awesome on Sunday when gaining 199 receiving yards & will be missed here. Eli Manning will also be missing another receiver to pass to with Domenik Hixon out & that should mean that Victor Cruz gets a very heavy workload & he should get a touchdown as New York are very much a passing team - odds of 4/7 for him to score reflect this.

Although the Panthers lost to Tampa Bay you'd be hard pushed to say they aren't a better team & they have two receivers who could really hurt New York's still ropey secondary in the speedy & dependable Steve Smith & 3rd year pro Brandon LaFell who looks like he might have a breakout year. LaFell could really cause the Giants some problems as he's a big physical receiver & they couldn't cope with a similar type in Vincent Jackson last time out. The Panthers will need DeAngelo Williams to be on his game at running back though as Jonathan Stewart looks like missing out, there are points to be scored against New York & so long as they don't fall behind like they did against the Saints they could win this one nicely. The Giants are more likely to be affected by the short preparation time as they have to travel & being without Bradshaw & Nicks could be the killer blows, backing the Carolina Panthers to prevail at odds of 5/6. In the touchdown markets we do really like Brandon LaFell & he's 11/1 to score the first TD with Ladbrokes - it looks worth a small wager.

Selections:
Both teams to score Spurs vs Lazio at 10/11 (BlueSquare)
Carolina Panthers to beat New York Giants at 5/6 (Various)
Brandon LaFell to score first Touchdown at 11/1 (Ladbrokes)

Poor Pompey deserve Pity & Punting against

It's finally upon us, the first weekend of the English football season is here after a less tortuous summer break than usual thanks to great sport in the form of the Olympics & European Championships. We'll be bringing you our betting picks throughout the season as we try to seek out value in the multitude of markets the bookies now offer. We're hoping to get the year off to a nice start through backing against a couple of sides with various troubles who just so happen to be Harry 'Wheeler Dealer' Redknapp's last two teams.

Newcastle vs Spurs

The late kick-off in the Premiership this Saturday sees Newcastle host Tottenham at St James Park. Both sides will be in the battle to make the top four this season but you could say Newcastle have the edge at the moment.

(Is chairman Daniel Levy helping or hindering Spurs in their latest transfer saga?)

Spurs have had a summer of change with Harry Redknapp being replaced with Andres Villas-Boas & long term captain Ledley King retiring due to his chronic knee problem. What hasn't changed is the fact that chairman Daniel Levy has yet again let a summer transfer saga overrun without suitable conclusion & seems to think the season starts on the 1st September not mid-August. To come into the opening match with only one senior striker must seem laughable to their rivals & embarrassing to those fans in the stands as Levy has known this since the beginning of the summer (Adebayor's loan finishing & Saha being released). There is a real possibility of Spurs season starting badly with the famous 'two points from eight games' springing to mind with the only differences being a different foreign manager & transfer saga (Berbatov instead of Modric). Jermain Defoe scored a cracker for England in midweek but he doesn't inspire confidence in these quarters, pundits seem to love him yet they conveniently fail to note he's only broken past 13 league goals twice since his season on loan with Bournemouth in 2000-01 & is generally considered to be a 'flat track bully' (scores in bunches against weak sides).

(Newcastle have kept the players to mount a serious 'top four' challenge again)

Newcastle on the other hand have had a fairly quiet summer but have importantly kept hold of all their stars & will be looking to improve on their 5th place finish last season. A solid defence based around keeper Tim Krul & Fabricio Coloccini & defensive shield of Cheick Tiote allows Frenchmen Yohan Cabaye & Hatem Ben Afra to provide the balls to hot shots Papiss Cisse & Demba Ba. A few of these are slightly doubtful for the opener but we would expect them to have enough fit & raring go at kick off. If you add into the mix that Newcastle have only lost once at home in 2012 & Spurs away record to top six sides is notoriously bad the 17/10 on offer for a Toon Army win seems a value bet.

Portsmouth vs Bournemouth

(Portsmouth manager Michael Appleton is facing a uphill battle)

Sorry Portsmouth welcome Bournemouth to Fratton Park in their opening League One fixture. Without being a Pompey fan it will be hard to understand what they are going through after news that they are on the brink of liquidation again with prospective owner Balram Chainrai announcing he has withdrawn his offer to buy the club. The summer has seen all senior players leave via routes to other clubs or contract settlement being agreed & yet again they will have to field basically a youth team to fulfil this fixture. Tuesday night they were defeated 3-0 by Plymouth in the Capital One cup & after first team coach Ashley Westwood went off injured it left their entire outfield side aged 18 or under. In contrast Bournemouth have overcome their money issues in recent years & should be chomping at the bit to get underway with promotion a real possibility. The Cherries have made a number of astute signings & up-front they have three strikers in Lewis Grabban, Matt Tubbs & Josh McQuoid who will be a real handful for any defence, Tubbs & Grabban are both nearing favouritism for top scorer in the division.

Portsmouth have managed to sign 10 players, each on one month deals, this Thursday but it remains to be seen whether they have match fitness & there's no chance for them to gel before Saturday. We expect Bournemouth to take advantage of Pompey's current plight & grab the three points at best odds of 10/11, the side that Portsmouth have right now will be lucky to pick up a handful of wins all season & financial saviour won't stop them slipping into the basement league of English football.

Selections:
Newcastle United to beat Tottenham Hotspur at 17/10 (William Hill)
Bournemouth to beat Portmouth at 10/11 (various)

Semi Final Showdown at Wembley

This weekend sees some intriguing ties throughout the leagues as teams continue to try to push for titles & promotions, playoffs & European places whereas at the other end of the tables the scrap to escape relegation becomes ever more desperate. Throw into that the FA Cup semi finals & there is plenty of action to get your betting teeth into, we're trying to help with a few picks that look reasonable at the prices. As ever you can follow us on Twitter @LikeBuyingMoney by clicking the follow button above, it's a good way too keep up to date with our latest posts & join in with the sport & betting conversation.

(Crewe boss Steve Davis hopes the travelling fans can inspire another 3 points)

Down in League Two, Crewe Alexandra travel to Mose Rose to face Macclesfield Town, Crewe are outside the play-off places on goal difference from Oxford United on 66 points whilst Macclesfield are in the relegation spots & three points away from safety. Crewe are unbeaten in their last 12 league games & have won five of their last seven with the latest being a comfortable 3-0 home victory over Bristol Rovers after two consecutive 1-1 draws, on the road they are unbeaten in their last five with two of them ending in victories against Gillingham & Hereford. Hosts Macclesfield are in dire form & haven't registered a win since 2011, their last 19 league games have ended with 13 defeats & six draws, with their last three games in a row lost against Gillingham, Shrewsbury Town & Port Vale. Crewe can continue their fine form at the expense of woeful Macclesfield at a too big price of 5/4 with Stan James.

(It isn't easy to work out who will line up for Chelsea v Spurs, could it be Sideshow Bob?)

The big games of the weekend come in the FA Cup semi finals, with firstly Liverpool taking on Everton & then the utterly ridiculous 6pm kickoff on Sunday between Spurs & Chelsea. We're going to keep things relatively simple here, Spurs & Liverpool have been atrocious in 2012 whereas Chelsea have improved immeasurably since sacking AVB & Everton have produced their usual late season charge. It makes no sense at all that Liverpool are favourites for their game as David Moyes was able to rest players for their midweek game just as Kenny Dalglish was, there is talk of how Liverpool are prioritising the cup competitions but Moyes prioritised it so much he fielded an understength side in the Derby match between these two at Goodison in preparation for facing Sunderland! Everton have found a cutting edge now with Nikica Jelvic up front & the play in the team has improved a lot thanks to the return of Steven Pienaar, on loan from Spurs. Harry Redknapp has already won the competition with Portsmouth & would dearly love to again but the reason Spurs edge ahead for favouritism appears to be because of the commitments to the Champions League that Chelsea have, with Barcelona to face in the coming week. It however won't be easy for Spurs to suddenly turn on the style whichever Chelsea players they face here after yet another poor result, losing at home to Norwich, they looked to be turning it around with wins against poor Bolton & a fading Swansea but maybe that was a false dawn. We're going for a double of Everton to win against Liverpool (in 90 minutes) at great odds of 85/40 & Chelsea to qualify for the final, in what could be a trappy affair at 10/11 (double with BetVictor), it pays just about £60 to a £10 stake & is worth a little investment.

(Hotshot Rene Howe has delayed knee surgery to help push Torquay into League One)

Also in League Two, Torquay United entertain Southend United at Plainmoor, this is a massive match in the race for promotion to League One with Torquay sat in 2nd & Southend in 5th but only six points behind. Torquay are in good form with five wins, two draws & only one defeat to current league leaders Swindon Town in their last eight league games, they have won three of their last four with victories over Port Vale, Barnet & Accrington Stanley. The Gulls home form has seen 12 victories out of 21 & they have scored at least one goal in 95% of these matches, lately at home they are unbeaten in their last four & have won their last two in a row. Visitors Southend are going through an inconsistent spell & have been defeated three times in their last five league games with the latest being away at Bradford City 2-0, they have a good away record this season but in recent weeks they have lost their last two in a row & four of their last six. We believe that Torquay will be too strong for Southend & put further distance between the two sides at the best price of 13/10 with William Hill.

Selections:
Crewe Alexandra to beat Macclesfield Town at 5/4 (Stan James)
Everton to beat Liverpool (in 90 mins) & Chelsea to qualify over Spurs double at odds just shy of 5/1 (BetVictor)
Torquay United to beat Southend United at 13/10 (William Hill)

London Two - Surburbia Nil

Wednesday night sees action from the Champions League, FA Cup & Championship but we'll be concentrating on the latter two competitions as we're unwilling to get involved with Barcelona games for the most part & APOEL have created some real upset results so we're staying away from that too.

(Robert Green showing off a skill highly valued by Sam Allardyce - the long kick)

West Ham United are chasing hard for the title in the Championship & they look to be a quality outfit that should have too much for their visitors Watford on Wednesday night. West Ham have lost just once in their last 9 league games & have even manged to go two whole games without having a player sent off after seeing reds in three consecutive games! They looked wholly professional away to Cardiff on Sunday, playing patient football & taking their chances when they came & they have such a strong & deep squad that playing three days later should prove no problem. Watford have had a streaky look to their form since overcoming a really bad start to their season, going on little runs of defeats & then unbeaten sequences & although they started 2012 nicely they then took beatings from Crystal Palace & Southampton before an excellent comeback from two down to win 3-2 against Burnley on Saturday. Sam Allardyce's men aren't the kind of side to let opportunities slip like Burnley did though & with them facing the possibility of losing the 6 points they've gained against Portsmouth if they go out of the league they know they have to win games like this. With so many strikers to choose from plus Kevin Nolan & Mark Noble also offering plenty of goals it's difficult to envisage West Ham not scoring & with Watford being the league's 2nd lowest scorers away from home this should be comfortable, backing West Ham at 4/7 is very reasonable.

(Scott Parker looks likely to start against Stevenage as Spurs look to win the cup)

Tottenham Hotspur have been huffing & puffing in recent games & have just 8 points from their last 7 league games but they are rightly red hot favourites to beat League One side Stevenage in their 5th round FA Cup replay at White Hart Lane. Stevenage had been flying after an inauspicious start to the season & had built up a sequence of just one loss in 17 league games but they've since not managed to win in four, losing two of those & although they held what appeared to be an unprepared & lethargic Spurs side at home the same won't happen here. Stevenage have failed to score in 11 of their 32 league games & they won't see much of the ball in this one whoever Harry decides to start, their top scorer Chris Beardsley is also unlikely to be fit. Spurs have enough options to ensure the win here & they can do it without conceding, odds of 11/10 about Spurs winning to nil need to be backed.

Selections:
West Ham United to beat Watford at 4/7 (general)
Tottenham Hotspur to beat Stevenage to nil at 11/10 (general)
Back the double to return £33 off a £10 stake