Villa Upstarts to go all ASBO over Liverpool

Another weekend of football action coming up & with 5 out of 6 winning bets, including 3 on the Premier League last week, we're hoping to continue in a similar vein with selections from the top division down to the lower leagues. As always if you find us here but don't follow us on Twitter please do; you can find us @LikeBuyingMoney & we'll hopefully keep you entertained as well as informed!

Aston Villa vs Liverpool

This is maybe the weekend's most interesting Premier League game (at least until Man United vs Chelsea on Monday night) as we get to take a look at a seemingly much improved Aston Villa side who take on the still Suarez-less Liverpool who for all their good play last week still only beat Stoke thanks to a late penalty save.

(Gabriel Agbonlahor finished 2012-13 in fine form & has continued so far this season)

Paul Lambert seems to be getting the best out of his squad of young players at the moment, particularly the forwards Christian Benteke & Gabby Agbonlahor with the lifelong Villa man looking unplayable at times with his pace & power in their opening two games against Arsenal & Chelsea. The ever-promising Fabian Delph may also be ready to deliver this season judged on the start he's made & whilst there remain issues with regards to Villa's sturdiness they look like they have the potential to give any side a game of it at the moment.

Liverpool finished off last season in pretty hot form (7 wins, 4 draws & a loss in their final 12) but by then it meant little in terms of what they could achieve in the league & it remains to be seen whether they can put that kind of form together over a whole season in order to claim a Champions League spot. Brendan Rodgers would surely be happy so long as they don't drop too many points whilst without their star striker Luis Suarez, out of action because of his ban & he's got his side a tricky contest here. Liverpool's main area of weakness for us is their lack of width in midfield with the fullbacks Johnson & Enriquez having to provide nearly all of that especially now that Stewart Downing has departed. Downing was considered a flop at the club but only Steven Gerrard started more games than him last season & it's not an ideal problem to have against Villa in particular.

(Brendan 'Envelope' Rodgers may find it hard to gain a victory away from the Anfield faithful)

Villa tended to struggle with balls into the box from out wide last year, including corners, so it's an ideal avenue to attack for most teams but with Weiman & Agbonlahor in advanced positions they should be able to defend from the front & keep Liverpool's fullbacks a bit quieter. Of course Liverpool are still dangerous with the classy operator Couinho & Gerrard, still capable of the spectacular, in midfield but Villa should be able to put men in against them & their defence will be happier to see the ball in front of them - they were relatively comfortable for long periods against a similar approach from Chelsea in the 2nd half on Wednesday.

Benteke is already on fire & his signing of a new contract looks the best bit of business done by a Premier League club this summer, with the young Belgian firing Villa have every chance of getting all 3 points here & with SportingBet & Paddy Power offering odds of 15/8 with the extra insurance of draw no bet this selection has to be advised. The fact Villa had to play in midweek is of course taken into account but at this stage of the season their players should be able to handle the quick turnaround & the extra football may come in handy whilst other teams try to shake off the pre-season rustiness.

Rotherham United vs Shrewsbury Town

In League One we see newly promoted Rotherham playing host to Shrewsbury in a clash that could be well be heavily influenced by the crucial home advantage. Shrewsbury ranked 20th in League One last season for points gained on the road whilst Rotherham ranked 4th at home in League Two & have started the season very respectably indeed.

(Rotherham's bruising centre forward Alex Revell could cause problems here)

Both teams gained their first wins of the season last week with Rotherham's 2-1 defeat of manager Steve Evans' former club Crawley particularly sweet for The Millers & that means Rotherham remain unbeaten thanks to a good draw with fancied Preston & two late goals away to Crewe salvaging a 3-3 draw & showing their battling qualities & good fitness levels to keep going to the end. Shrewsbury just don't seem to have many goals in their side, they didn't find the net in their first two games & their top scorer last season Marvin Morgan bagged just 7 goals with their number 9 Tom Bradshaw scoring his first goal in two years in their win against Swindon. We've already noted that Swindon appear to be a club in a bit of turmoil so we're not too impressed with that win & we reckon Graham Turner will be setting his team up not to lose rather than be proactive & aim for 3 points in this one.

Rotherham haven't looked bereft of ideas in attack so far this year & it's possible that their Irish midfielder Lee Frecklin could keep up his decent scoring record & the 6"3 forward Alex Revell poses a problem for most opposition defences & can link up well with either Nardiello or Agard. With the odds on offer at Evens with BetVictor (they're odds on everywhere else) Rotherham look worthy of a decent punt here to gain another victory in their push for successive promotions.

Selections:
Aston Villa to beat Liverpool draw no bet at 15/8 (Paddy Power & SportingBet)
Rotherham to beat Shrewsbury at Evens (BetVictor)

Premier League 2013-14 Antepost Season Preview - Relegation & Golden Boot

The general consensus was that the 2012-13 Premier League season was not a vintage year & it probably didn't help that the race for the title was effectively over by mid-January thanks to Manchester United's blisteringly winning form. 2013-14 looks to be shaping up nicely though with plenty of new faces on the pitch & in the dugouts & we've taken a look through the markets to try to identify some value, season-long bets.

Relegation:

Last year we got it spectacularly wrong when selecting West Bromwich Albion to be relegated, we reckoned that with a new manager in place & a lack of high profile names that they would struggle but Steve Clarke had his men raring to go at the start of the season (26 points from the first 39 available) & the excellent Romelu Lukaku's goals helped steer them to an unlikely 8th place finish.

(West Brom could suffer without Lukaku's goals & Shane Long doesn't inspire us with confidence)

Of course the upside of West Brom doing so well last season is that their price for relegation this year is a rather large 9/1 (BetVictor) & there's reason to believe that may just be value this time around. Last year the Baggies were just 4/1 for relegation & we thought that was justified due to the apparent lack of goals in the side (Lukaku had not shown anywhere near the same level of form when appearing for a superior Chelsea side) & of course with him returning to London it seems fair to raise that question again. Shane Long scored 8 times in the league last year (3 times from February onwards) & at times looked shorn of confidence when in front of goal & the signing of Nicolas Anelka at the ripe old age of 34 doesn't inspire confidence. Matej Vydra could be making his way to the Midlands via a loan signing & he was certainly great for Watford in the Championship but this is a step up on the defences he faced there. Another mooted signing is Man City flop Scott Sinclair but he may be rusty after not playing much football & occasionally appears a little lightweight.

West Brom do look better at the back than their lacklustre attack & we're particularly fans of Ben Foster in goal, he seems a serious footballer who seems happier at a slightly smaller Premier League club like West Brom. Foster will be seeing a fine footballer step into the back four in the form of Uruguay captain Diego Lugano at centre back, he's on loan from French champions PSG, understandably not being able to get ahead of their Brazilian contingent of defenders. The worry with Lugano is that he turns 33 in November & hasn't played a lot of club football in the past two seasons & he may not have quite the motivation of other contracted players if they do start to struggle. Jonas Olsson was in fine form last year & has been a fine servant for the club, he'll surely be one of the first names on the team sheet again. West Brom are weaker elsewhere in defence though & it seemed some players stepped up on all known form last year including Liam Ridgewell, Billy Jones & Gareth McAuley - we can't see them having such good seasons again.

(Gareth McAuley & others overperformed last season & a reversion could see the Baggies in danger)

In midfield Mulumbu & Yacob are solid but a lack of creativity, particularly from wide areas, that will be needed to supply that unconvincing attack, looks likely to cost them. We can't see how they'll replace Lukaku's goals, many of which were scored by him seemingly through sheer force of will, & their 53 goals scored total from 2012-13 (remember boosted by the freak 5-5 with Man Utd) will drop considerably & wins will start turning to draws & draws to losses. The 9/1 for West Brom to fill one of the relegation spots is too much of a tempter & a small bet over the season could offer a very nice return.

Golden Boot

Talking of goals this year's top scorer market seems an interesting one with Robin van Persie deservedly topping the betting as he's been the winner for the past two seasons & already looks sharp judging by his two goals in the Community Shield. van Persie's odds of 7/2 are short enough though considering he has tended to pick up injuries through his career until these last two years, if you could guarantee he'd play 30+ games he'd be an automatic pick but we'd rather go for a player at bigger odds.

(Spurs' record signing Roberto Soldado is a top marksman & can strike at 20/1)

Roberto Soldado is the man we like to make a big impact in his Premier League debut season & although foreign imports have never won this particular race in their first season we reckon he has the right circumstances to do it. He's easily banged goals in at a rate of more than one every other game for the past 4 seasons in Spain & that includes a stint for Getafe where he scored 33 in 66 over two seasons & his league goals tally reads 16, 18, 17 & 24 for the last 4 terms. He'll be playing in a Spurs side that is full of creative talent in midfield with Aaron Lennon, Gylfi Sigurdsson, Moussa Dembele, Lewis Holtby & exciting new signing Paulinho all providing him with opportunities.
 
We've purposely left Gareth Bale off of that list as he looks fairly likely to head off to Madrid by the time the transfer window shuts & that wouldn't necessarily be a bad thing for Soldado's chances as Spurs tended to fall into a habit of letting Bale rescue them last year but they'll have to impose themselves more without him. The Europa League could prove a distraction but we imagine that Spurs will field a shadow side for the league stage & Soldado should see plenty of Premier League games & seems to have the type of game to excel in England with a willingness to shoot on site that has certainly evaded Emmanuel Adebayor at times, a player who could end up providing a lot of chances if selected to play as a strike partner.

(van Persie is a deserving favourite in the Golden Boot market)

At odds of 20/1 Soldado looks a solid option away from van Persie when you consider Man City will rotate their strikers aroun, the dangerous Luis Suarez will be banned for the first part of the season & Wayne Rooney's status remains up in the air. Back him & take the each way terms of 1/4 odds for the first 4 places & he should be in contention all season.

Selections:
West Bromwich Albion to be relegated at 9/1 (BetVictor)
Robert Soldado each way to win the Golden Boot at 20/1 (1/4 odds 1-2-3-4)

Watford's Hornets possess more sting than Brentford's Bees

Last week we set out our fancies for Championship success over the course of the season & for Twitter followers selected Peterborough as our bet of the weekend (successful at 11/10) but this week we're back with our first proper blog of the season & we've trawled the games & the stats to bring you some value tips.

Watford vs Bournemouth

We reckon that this is the game to watch this weekend with last season's highest scorers in the Championship, Watford, playing host to last year's top goal-getters from League One as Eddie Howe's Bournemouth roll into town.

(Watford's Almen Abdi shows off his smooth technique)

The two teams are some of the more interesting clubs around, both on & off the pitch, with Watford's strong ties to Italy & there being talk of potentially very substantial sums of money around Bournemouth who are part-owned by (amusingly named) Russian businessman Max Denim. Both sides are committed to playing attractive football & that comes from the coaches with Gianfranco Zola being one of the finest players to grace English football in the past 20 years & Eddie Howe one of the brightest young managerial talents around whose reputation was seemingly not harmed by his sacking from Burnley. That attacking philosophy is borne out not just by the fact that both teams were top scorers in their leagues but also because they happened to ship a few goals too with Watford's games containing joint-most overall last year & Bournemouth's 2nd most in League One.

Both teams have started out with 100% records with wins on the first league game of the season & then midweek victories in the first round of the League Cup so will be coming into this game with a little bit of a bounce in their step. That however may not be a good thing for Bournemouth as they are running into one of the Championship's top teams here who only missed out on automatic promotion by a couple of points last year & appear to have a top striker in Troy Deeney even if they couldn't persuade their top man from last year Matej Vydra to stay. The Hornets don't have to just rely on Deeney for firepower though with the diminutive Fernando Forestieri chipping in with a few & the excellent Almen Abdi ready to score as well as creat goals from midfield.

Bournemouth have tried to improve their options in defence with the signings of Ian Harte & Elliott Ward but more than that needs to be done if they aren't to concede with regularity & at the moment it remains to be seen whether their attack at the other end will be able to compensate although Lewis Grabban had a dream start bagging both goals in their 2-1 win against Charlton. We've no worries that Bournemouth will stay up this year as their home form seems likely to be strong but it's on the road that we worry & Watford should be slightly shorter than 8/11 to win this one - the odds of 4/5 for over 2.5 goals was tempting too but we'll stay with the home win.

Brentford vs Sheffield United

The other game we like the look of from a betting point of view is between last season's 3rd & 5th place League One sides, Uwe Rosler's Brentford & start-up manager David Weir's Sheffield United as the two well fancied teams battle it out for early season supremacy.

(Sheffield United will do well to hold on to 6"4 youngster Harry Maguire for another year)

Brentford have gone about increasing their squad size in the summer with loans & permanent signings, with Will Grigg probably the standout buy after the 22 year old scored 19 times in the league for Walsall last term. The Blades have been more cautious in the transfer market in terms of volume but have a big squad already & they'll be desperate for new signings Febian Brandy & Lyle Taylor to fire in the goals they need to add to their defensive solidity that Weir will look to maintain.

Both teams lost a joint league-low 9 games last season but came up with too many draws to claim an automatic promotion place & instead failed in the playoffs. With Sheffield United surely coming to first ensure they don't lose this could be a tense little encounter & that means the draw becomes a big player in the market & odds of 12/5 are very fair indeed. We think Sheffield United will be ultra conscious of the threat Clayton Donaldson provides the Bees & will attempt to defend in numbers to counter that & as they are so comfortable on the back foot a small play of No Goalscorer at 17/2 with BetVictor is advised also.

Selections:
Watford to beat Bournemouth at 8/11 (Various)
Brentford to draw with Sheffield United at 12/5 (Bet365 & SkyBet)
No Goalscorer - Brentford vs Sheffield United at 17/2 (BetVictor)

Talented Tigers can savage Toothless Tractor Boys

We haven't been inspired by the football betting in recent weeks & plenty of teams across the divisions have lacked consistency making betting a dangerous proposition. We've gone for one Championship game this Saturday as we look for a nice odds against win.

Ipswich Town vs Hull City

In the Championship promotion chasing Hull travel down to Ipswich to take on Mick McCarthy's Tractor Boys who have shut down opposing teams' attackers down impressively since the turn of the year with just 7 goals conceded in their last 15 games & clean sheets in their last 5. It won't be easy for Steve Bruce's men but this is the kind of game that they will feel they'll need to win if they are to close out automatic promotion.

(George Boyd - a man without conviction...?)

Ipswich have enjoyed a real turnaround since dismissing Paul Jewell & bringing in proven Championship manager Mick McCarthy (we've always felt McCarthy lacks the ability to attract true Premier League quality players to his sides). McCarthy has concentrated on ensuring Ipswich have a sound base to build on & even though it has come at a cost to their goal creation & scoring (lowest goal tally in Championship with just 40 in 41) it has proven to be a successful tactic. Ipswich have been a little lucky in their last two games though with Derby hitting the woodwork & missing a penalty last time & Millwall only denied by the woodwork as well. Much of their run of good defensive performances in 2013 came with West Ham loanee Stephen Henderson in goal but he's now left & Scott Loach is back between the posts. Loach has played very well in these last 3 games since Henderson returned to the Hammers but it's unlikely he's at the level of Henderson overall & it is a downgrade at the no.1 position. At the attacking end of the pitch Ipswich are again weakened by a loanee's time coming to an end with David McGoldrick now unavailable & that means they look a little toothless at the business end of the pitch.

Hull are no defensive slouches themselves with only 46 goals finding their net even though they've had a couple of aberrations since January when conceding 4 to Bolton & Crystal Palace. In goal for the Tigers is Fulham loanee David Stockdale who was on loan at Ipswich last season & he was in decent nick as Hull overcame woefully out of form Middlesbrough last Saturday & it looks likely he won't be caused too much trouble as Ipswich employ their somewhat reductive approach. Hull do occasionally look like they struggle to break teams down though & it was no surprise to see them pick up attacker George Boyd on loan in February with Sone Aluko ruled out for some time with injury. Boyd offers inventive play & an eye for goal & he's got 4 in 8 to repay the faith shown in him so far & he along with Hull's Egyptian contingent & creative lynchpin Robert Koren need to take the game to Ipswich here. Hull looked flat last weekend after defeat to promotion rivals Watford in midweek but they have had a week to prepare for this & we expect to see them fired up & they can take the away victory at odds of 13/8 with 888sport. We also like the enhanced odds available by backing Hull to win without conceding & that's on offer at 13/4 with Ladbrokes.

Selections:
Hull City to beat Ipswich Town at 13/8 (888sport)
Hull City to win to nil at 13/4 (Ladbrokes)

Monday Night Football - Clean Sheet Kings to keep it close

We've been reading recently about the general trend around European football, including the Premier League, for more goals but there are a few sides in England this year that are bucking that trend & we see a couple of them meet up tonight at Upton Park as West Ham United host Stoke City in what could be an old fashioned kickfest.

West Ham United vs Stoke City

(Midfielders Mark Noble & Kevin Nolan are key to West Ham)

It should be noted that these are the two teams with the joint best clean sheet record in the league this year with 5 shutouts each in their 11 games & that's through a combination of tough physical defences & because of their style of football where the ball doesn't tend to be on the ground as much or similarly in play thanks to booming clearances & plenty of time taken over set pieces. Neither side like to lose either with just three losses a piece & Stoke's have come against Chelsea, Man Utd & in-form Norwich so there's no shame there although their lack of goal threat means they have to settle for draws too often & have only one win on the board. Peter Crouch looks like Stoke's only real goal threat with little support from midfield & even though we like Jon Walters build up play he never looks like getting 10+ league goals a year.

West Ham certainly do have a goal threat from midfield & it comes chiefly from their vocal captain Kevin Nolan who ranks right up there as one of the most effective & consistent English players for the last decade & we can understand his frustration with never being picked for the national side. Mark Noble is another of their midfielders with an eye for goal & he has also recently been hinting he'd like an England call up, if Noble & Nolan really want to push their claims they need to be the ones to make a difference in tight games like this especially as the West Ham forwards have failed to fire so far. Andy Carroll hasn't managed a goal yet even though he's at just about the best club possible to exploit his attributes although he's had an injury & to be fair his all round play has definitely been beneficial especially his partnership with good mate Kevin Nolan.

(Ryan Shawcross recently got a deserved England cap but he's not everyone's cup of tea...)

When you take a look at the players each team has in defence they really are just physical powerhouses, Ryan Shawcross had 180 more clearances in the league than any other player last year & James Collins ranked 2nd in the same category for Villa last year & has now come into the Hammers side with great success. This isn't likely to be a pretty game by any means but West Ham have a great incentive to go all out for the win here as they have a tough run of fixtures after this up to Christmas so they need to get points on the board, they should have faith in their defence to cope with Peter Crouch much more easily than some teams & we like their chances. Big Sam will send his team out for the win & West Ham are just about value at a price of Evens with 5 victories from 11 already & taking them to win 2-0 at 19/2 also looks worth a little play as we think they'll keep the low scoring Potters at bay.

Selections:
West Ham United to beat Stoke City at Evens (General)
West Ham to win 2-0 at 19/2 (BetVictor)

1st Euro 2012 Semi Final - Primed Portugal can Spank Spain

We'll get to see a real clash of styles on Wednesday night as Portugal's lightning quick, direct & attacking team come up against the last half a decade's dominant football force of the 'Barcelona style' of patient, possession football played by Spain. It should be a really fascinating game & it remains to be seen whether Spain's Iberian rivals are the ones to eventually topple them & stop them winning their third major tournament in a row.

(Portugal can gain some success against Spain starting building with their classy central defenders)

Neither side had tough quarter fnals, with Portugal outclassing the Czech Republic & eventually breaking through late on after numerous near misses earlier in the game. Spain meanwhile could hardly have had an easier game against France with the French seemingly having imploded again before the game & giving a listless display - it was disappointing as Spain don't quite looked to have hit their usual heights & a fully firing France should have given them at least something to think about.

For all their quality Spain really haven't created too many clear cut chances in their games but because they are defensively sound & control the ball so well they don't need to score many as it's difficult to see them conceding often. If you were to pinpoint a defensive weakness it would be Alvaro Arbeloa at right back though & that just happens to be the key position when trying to stop the unstoppable Cristiano Ronaldo - he has been quite brilliant in the last two games & will have plenty of happy thoughts lining up against Spanish players - after all he finds it pretty easy to score against them in his day job at Real Madrid. Ronaldo may be arrogant & seem selfish but you can tell that he really does inspire his team mates around him & there is an awful lot of quality throughout the Portugal team other than their traditional problem position at striker. Portugal have struggled at point ever since record scorer Pauleta retired in 2006, Hugo Almeida will likely play up front but his role will be to hold the ball up & bring others into play more than trying to score himself. If Spain do concentrate on trying to stop Ronaldo specifically (which they may not as they could simply stick to their ideals) they could allow quality passers Meireles & Moutinho to pick out some killer balls.

(Manchester City's golden boy David Silva hasn't fully impressed us this tournament)

Portugal have looked good defensively & the goals they've conceded aren't the kind of ones they should worry about doing so again with the way Spain play,  the two against Denmark were down to not being able to deal with Nicklas Bendtner & the goal against Germany was similar in not coping with Gomez's presence whilst Van der Vaart's goal for Holland was a stunning strike. Other than in the air Portugal have looked slightly weak with balls in behind as Bruno Alves has looked sluggish & the keeper Patricio while competent is certainly the weakest starting keeper left in the competition by a very long way.

We all know Spain's strengths, they play the ultimate team game as they don't rely on any one position or player & don't seem to need everyone to be on their game to be able to pull off the results but we weren't impressed with them against the Italians in the first game or going forwards against Croatia in the last group game. France were so bad it was embarrassing & Vicente del Bosque's men will need to step up to justify their current odds on price to win in 90 minutes especially as his sdie have had two less rest days than Portugal. We prefer the look of Portugal at decent odds & we think they can get off to a flying start with their explosive game, odds of 17/2 for Portugal to be winning at half time & full time are pretty generous & don't require a big outlay for a sizeable return. The Man of the Match market also offers a little value because if Portugal can win Ronaldo seems locked in for the prize & backing him at 6/1 is better than Portugal at 7/2 - he could even get it if the game ends up going to extra time so looks a real value bet.

Selections:
Portugal to beat Spain at half time & full time at 17/2 (BetVictor & 188Bet)
Cristiano Ronaldo to be Man of the Match at 6/1 (Various)

Quarter Final Four - Insert Lazy Italian Job Headline here

England & Italy meet in the last of the quarter finals fighting it out for the 'privilege' of facing Germany in the semi final, neither side will have given that match too much thought yet as their concentration will be solely on this game & it looks like being a difficult one to call either way.

(Mario Balotelli - when he's good he's very very good but when he's bad he is horrid!)

England have seemingly already exceeded expectations at home by qualifying at the top of their group ahead of France & although they haven't looked technically great they have looked well disciplined & resolute & have been succeeding with a real team effort. Steven Gerrard has to be considered the standout performer in the tournament for England going forwards with some outstanding deliveries & he seems to relish his role as captain, he's certainly the type of player that others can rally around & arguably should have had the captaincy before now. At the back although Chelsea performers John Terry & Ashley Cole have been receiving the plaudits (Terry does play with a certain exuberance with goal line clearances etc.) we think that Joleon Lescott has been rocksteady, just like he was for Man City all year, & it's that base that they can work with for some real solidity.

Italy have been pretty solid at the back themselves, conceding just twice in 1-1 draws with Spain & Croatia & they are two good sides so there was little disgrace there - they are going to be without their robust defender Giorgio Chiellini though & it will be interesting to see how they set up without him. Daniele De Rossi could fall back into the centre of a three man defence just as they played in the first two games & he did perform very creditably in that role. The worry with De Rossi in defence is that he won't necessarily cope with a big physical striker up against him & that must make Hodgson tempted to play footballing Neanderthal Andy Carroll as his front man. Italy did not look weakened in central midfield without De Rossi in those first two games with the technical excellence of Motta, Marchisio & the outstanding so far Andrea Pirlo helping them to control possession & look for openings. It will be fascinating to see those three go up against England's more rough & ragged, but extremely hardworking Gerrard & Parker, James Milner will be looking to get narrow when his support is needed too.

(England's hopes are resting on you Mr Rooney - perform!)

For England it seems that all hopes rest with the near mythical Wayne Rooney, on his day Rooney can be up there with some of the best in the world but we feel he's essentially a streaky player who goes through very good periods & then some very poor periods rather than being consistently great. Rooney's touch looked bad at times against Ukraine & he was more reminiscent of the player who toiled so badly at World Cup 2010 than the one who has terrorised Premier League defences for the last couple of seasons, he did get his goal though & England fans will hope he can kick on from that. Rooney has been considered slightly temperamental at times & that certainly caused him to be banned for the first two games, he did only pick up three yellows all season for Man United & looks to have calmed a little - the same cannot be said for the enigmatic Mario Balotelli.

Reports suggest that Balotelli is going to be recalled to the starting lineup after his late, very good, goal to wrap up the win against Ireland, he's an outstanding talent & will know any weaknesses in Joe Hart's or Joleon Lescott's paly that could be exploited. We don't seem to be able to find the stats up to the end of the season but in April Balotelli was leading the league in goals per minute played & that doesn't surprise as his accuracy is second to none with him seemingly able to place the ball in the corners of the net at will. Of course Balotelli is what is officially known as 'a lunatic' & there's a theory that England players will look to wind him up but it will have been drilled into him that the best way to respond is with goals & at 8/1 Balotelli's value to bag the first of the game.

So far in the tournament there have been five 1-1 results & these two sides have been in matches accounting for three of those & the way that they set out it does make a similar result to that quite likely with their disciplined defensive setups but still with quality forwards, at odds of 11/2 backing the 1-1 correct score is a play. Even if Italy can score first England seem to have a never say die attitude & have the ability with their deliveries in the box to bounce back, if it goes the other way & England can make a breakthrough they have looked vulnerable with a lead in all three games & could easily concede.

Selections:

1-1 Correct Score at 11/2 (various)

Mario Balotelli to score first at 8/1 (various) + scorecast Balotelli 1-1 at 35/1+

Euro 2012 - And the Winners are...........

The European Championships are just hours away now & we've already brought our group by group, team by team previews to you but here we'll round up all of our selections & give our thoughts on where the best outright value lies for the tournament.

(Germany's young guns are our outright picks for Euro 2012)

It takes an awful lot to win a European Championship, the right set of players, complimentary tactics, a decent draw & a little bit of luck can all go some way to setting a side up for a Championship run & the side that look like proving toughest to stop here have to be Germany. The Germans seem to have become plenty of peoples' idea of champions & it has been refreshing to hear so many English fans have somewhat of a soft spot for our Saxon neighbours rather than the usual nonsense. It helps that Germany play such an exciting & attacking brand of football with youngsters such as Toni Kroos, Thomas Muller & especially Mesut Ozil all catching the eye with chance creation. Ozil is as short as 8/1 (Ladbrokes) to be player of the tournament & we can see why he'd be popular as he was brilliant at the last World Cup when coming in as an unkown outside of Germany & has continued that fine form now playing for the world's biggest club side in Real Madrid, you can get 14/1 on him to be awarded best player & that's a more tempting offer.

German & English football has shared many similar qualities over the years but there are plenty of differences now, as if to emphasise that Joachim Low has been able to select 8 Bayern Munich players, a side that reached the Champions League final & were arguably this year's best side in the competition, whereas Roy Hodgson now has 6 Liverpool players in his squad - the more said about their appalling performance this season the better. Plenty of those Bayern players are likely to be starters too & that means they have an advantage over most national teams that are having to find their way into tournaments, building team spirit & cohesion. The incredibly young age of the Germans would prove a worry if it weren't for the wealth of experience these youngsters already have for the national side & top European teams, 17 of the 23 in their squad are 26 years old or younger & only two are 30 or older - backup keeper Tim Wiese & talismanic striker Miroslav 'Tournament' Klose. The defence would be the one area that could be argued to be a weak spot for the Germans but 4 of the 5 are Bayern regulars with the imposing Manuel Neuer between the sticks & Boateng & our absolute favourite Philipp Lahm at the full back spots. 23 year old Mats Hummels is the one non-Bayern player at the back but he started out there before moving on a couple of years ago to achieve a lot of success with Borussia Dortmund & he can be relied upon.

(Andrea Schurrle has 7 goals in 14 appearances for Germany)

If there is to be a breakout star for Germany we think it could come in the form of 21 year old Andrea Schurrle who already has 7 goals in 14 games for the national side & has scored against Switzerland & Israel in the warmup games, if for some reason 'Super' Mario Gomez fails to fire on the big stage it could be Schurrle who benefits. Backing Schurrle to be last scorer in games could be a play as he may come on as a super sub to start with, if he can establish himself in the team he could even make a play for the top German scorer at 16/1.

(Ibrahimovic is too big at 50/1 to be top scorer at Euro 2012)

Our other outright bets are at huge odds yet we think they should be a little shorter in the betting with Samir Nasri (66/1) & Andrea Pirlo (80/1) to pick up the player of the tournament prize both key players for their sides who get plenty of the ball & are in teams with the potential to reach the semi finals - reaching the final 4 should be key to scoring this prize. The other player who is being massively underrated, as usual here in England, is Zlatan Ibrahimovic for tournament top scorer at 50/1, he bangs the goals in for team(s) & country & has a good supporting cast of creators in midfield for Sweden. We fancy the Swedes to get out of their group & Ibrahimovic is worth a little look in the market as 5 goals could potentially bag the prize outright.

(Russia are far superior to their Group A rivals)

The other side we reckon are worth considering for winning the whole tournament is France but their odds have shortened considerably & they no longer look such a solid betting proposition at just 10/1. If Benzema stays fit & in top form France will be dangerous to everyone but if he were to drop out his backups are not near his quality, the defence is a little weaker than the rest of their team too, as the selection of Arsenal's Laurent Koscielny in the squad illustrates. We haven't a lot of love for Spain at the prices but clearly they are a top class outfit, it might just be that time & plenty of matches on the legs of their key Barcelona players start to catch up with them & we think they could find it hard to break down the defences of Italy & Ireland, meaning a lay of them at cramped odds to qualify the group looks a play. Our best bet of the tournament has to be Russia to win Group A at odds of 6/4, that is underestimating just how superior the Russians are to the other 3 sides, Greece are limited & the Czech Republic could be the worst side in the finals. Poland are here as hosts & can play a little but are still some way below the Russians who are coming into the tournament in decent nick & they reached the semis, playing some quality football, 4 years ago.

Whatever you end up going for we wish you the best of luck in giving the bookies a beating! Our outright & group specific bets are all listed below.

Outright Selections:
Germany to win tournament at 3/1
Samir Nasri (France) to be player of the tournament at 66/1
Andrea Pirlo (Italy) to be player of the tournament at 80/1
Zlatan Ibrahimovic to be top tournament goalscorer at 50/1 (each way 1/4 odds 1-2-3-4)

Group A picks:
Russia to win Group A at 6/4 (Like Buying Money's Star Bet)
Russia to beat Czech Republic at 5/4
Robert Lewandowski to be top Group A goalscorer at 11/4
Czech Republic to finish bottom of Group A at 11/5

Group B picks:
Germany to win Group B at 6/5
Cristiano Ronaldo to be top Portuguese scorer at 15/8
Denmark to concede fewest goals in tournament at 22/1

Group C picks:
Lay Spain at 1.16 or lower to qualify from Group C
Group C to be lowest scoring group at 3/1

Group D picks:
France/Sweden straight forecast for Group D at 12/1
Sweden/France straight forecast for Group D at 18/1
Andriy Yarmolenko to be top Ukranian goalscorer at 6/1

Euro 2012 Group C - Reigning Spain to feel the Pain

Our European Championship preview is finding the best bets from every group & also some outright tournament bets. Here we take a look at Group C, containing tournament favourites Spain, 1968 winners Italy, tough & talented Croatia & finally Giovanni Trapattoni's Republic of Ireland.

(Xavi is the perfect exponent of the Spanish way of playing)

Spain: Outright Winners 11/4 & Group C Winners at 8/13

It's understandable to see Spain as favourites for Euro 2012, they are the world's number one ranked team & are the current holders of the competition & the World Cup too, Spain have quite simply dominated international football over the past five years with their brand of technical, possession football & look hard to beat. Spain were perfect through qualifying, winning all 8 of their games, knocking in 26 goals & only conceding 6, it wasn't a tough group (as most aren't) with the Czech Republic being a much reduced force & the 3 teams being the minnows of Scotland, Lithuania & Liechtenstein. It still takes a lot to keep up that level of performance over the whole period of qualifying especially when on the road & when already qualified & goes to show just how professional the Spanish are.

Spain start strong at the back with probably the world's best goalkeeper in Iker Casillas, he became Spain's most capped player of all time in late 2011 & bearing in mind he's only 31 it's conceivable he could end up playing over 200 games for his country. With vice-captain Carlos Puyol out of the tournament through injury it looks as though his regular club partner at Barcelona, Gerard Pique, will be joined in central defence by Real Madrid rival & all round red card collecting lunatic Sergio Ramos, who should move inside from right back. That should mean that ex-Liverpool player Alvaro Arbeloa gets to play at his natural position of right back & Jordi Alba will get to build on his relatively minimal international experience as he comes in at left back. It mustn't be forgotten that Spain won all of their World Cup knockout games 1-0 (including the final after extra time) & Casillas & his watertight defence were key to that success, they still look some outfit but it's never easy to have to make changes & they will miss Puyol's leadership.

Spain don't have too many problems in midfield, as evidenced by the fact that a player as talented as Cesc Fabregas can't pin down a starting spot, Iniesta, David Silva & the phenomenal Xavi provide the trademark metronomic passing that has become synonymous with the supposed 'right way' to play football over the last few years. Backing up the front three are the destructive & incredibly efficient Sergio Busquets & then Xabi Alonso, a player who barely seems to move at times yet gets an awful lot of the ball as he strives to set up attacking phase after attacking phase. Up front things get a little trickier for the Spanish with their record scorer David Villa out though injury, that means that they take Pedro (2 goals both in friendlies in 15 appearances), Fernando Torres (2 international goals since 2010), Fernando Llorente (7 goals in 20 but not since 2010) & Alvaro Negredo (5 goals in 8 but all in high scoring wins against weak opposition). It looks like Llorente has a chance of starting up front & he's some player, particularly shining on Athletic Bilbao's Europa League run where he tormented Man United's defence, although Spain's style might not totally suit the 6"5 big man who's great in the air too. It is worrying that they don't have any forwards currently in top form & if one doesn't get going those 1-0 results they were gaining in the World Cup could just turn to draws & cause them a frustrating time.

(Giorgio Chiellini is an enforcer at the back for Italy)

Italy: Outright Winners 16/1 & Group C Winners at 100/30

Italy are 16/1 shots for the tournament but looked in pretty good shape during qualifying, winning 7 & drawing 2, with their home game against Serbia abandoned & awarded to them 3-0, with just two goals conceded they had the tightest defence of any qualifying team & are likely to put that to good effect when coming up against Spain in their opening match. Buffon is still outstanding in goal at the age of 34 & is protected by hard case Giorgio Chiellini & Andrea Barzagli who seems to have got better with age & is playing his best football now after joining Juventus in 2011. If Italy play with a true four at the back then Chiellini could be shunted out to left back with Balzaretti, the one true left back, pretty inexperienced at the highest level considering he's 30 but whatever choices Cesare Prandelli makes with the defence are likely to be astute. Although Italy had a great qualifying defensively & have been renowned for it in the past, it has actually been their attractive technical play that has recently caught the attention with Andrea Pirlo being their main man & one of the best creators in the game. De Rossi & Marchisio are tough no-nonsense midfielders who can boss pretty much any opposition midfield but they are also great on the ball & by winning it & giving it to Pirlo they allow him to do the pretty things.

Italy don't tend to play with too much width, instead allowing Antonio Cassano to play in behind a couple of forward players & the Milan attacker does the business for the national team although he hasn't played all the time for club, that wasn't helped due to a serious health scare in October requiring heart surgery & he only made his first team comeback in April, he's said to be fully recovered now though. Antonio Di Natale is better than ever at the age of 34 & has scored 29, 28 & 29 goals over the past three Serie A seasons, who he gets partnered by up front is still up in the air but it might just be the unpredictable Balotelli if the City player can gain Cesare's trust. Clearly the loss of Guiseppe Rossi to yet another lengthy injury is a blow to the Italians & it remains to be seen whether they can get scoring again.

(Croatis captain Darijo Srna will be hoping to lead his team out of this tough group)

Croatia: Outright Winners 50/1 & Group C Winners at 15/2

Croatia are 50/1 outsiders for outright glory & 7/4 to qualify from the group & with Spain & Italy there it does look a tough ask but they have some genuinely top class players going forwards & a core team that have played together for years & they look to have their best side since manager Slaven Bilic was playing & they had Davor Suker up front. Eduardo never really cut it at Arsenal but he's got 22 goals for the national side & he's only likely to be fourth choice up front behind Bayern's Ivica Olic, Mario Mandzukic & in form big man Nikica Jelavic. Everton's Jelavic would instantly walk into the England starting eleven but he isn't guaranteed to get into the side here thanks to only 2 goals in 18 games for the Croats. Luka Modric is considered one of the Premier League's best & he'll create plenty from midfield with Darijo Srna & Niko Kranjcar in the wide positions getting the ball in the box. Ognjen Vukojevic could well have a big role to play in the side as the defensive midfielder & they may even elect to play with another in the games against Spain & Italy & add Dujmovic to the mix too. With a bit of a dodgy defence (Corluka's one of their better defenders!) they'll be keen to get off to a good start against Ireland & if they can avoid losing there they'll give the big two sides a rough ride & rely on some moments of inspiration from Modric.

(Richard Dunne will have plenty to do in defence as Ireland will be sitting deep in their games)

Ireland: Outright Winners 100/1 & Group C Winners at 18/1

The Republic of Ireland will be looking to put a wealth of experience to good use in this tournament as they go into it with 3 of their top 5 most capped players in Shay Given, Damien Duff & Robbie Keane, they have some quality players but with the astute Trapattoni in charge they'll primarily look to be solid first & then look to their stars for a bit of inspiration. Having only lost one game, to Russia, in qualifying they'll be taking a good feeling into the tournament plus will be desperate for a bit of success after missing out on finals so closely over the past few years. There isn't too much pace across the back four for Ireland but Richard Dunne can be inspirational at times in the centre of defence & will scare many cultured forward players with his  physical presence, it looks like Leicester's resurgent Sean St Ledger will join him at the back & although neither are top players they make a decent partnership. John O'Shea will start at one of the full back postions & will either be on the left with Stephen Kelly at right back or on the right with Stephen Ward at left back, either way O'Shea will likely be the only one of the four to get forwards with any regularity & his crossing ability shouldn't be underestimated.

Central midfield is not inspiring for the Irish with Keith Andrews & Glenn Whelan looking like getting the spots but they both work very hard & can pay the simple balls to the wingers they'll rely on to create their chances. Ireland seem to be one of the few countries left still producing true wingers & in Duff, McGeady & Sunderland's untested James McClean they have some exciting players that will create problems for defenders. We don't see Trapattoni giving McClean a starting role straight away, Duff is ultra dependable & McGeady has gone to Spartak Moscow & proven himself in a tough country & that experience will help him here. Keane is clearly their lead striker & it looks like he'll have his regular international partner Kevin Doyle with him, if so that will be a disappointment to Shane Long who performed better than him outright for most of the Premier League season. Just like Croatia they'll see their opening match as key & if they do gain the win over the Croats they'll be looking to contain both Italy & Spain & may be better drilled by their wily old coach than their Eastern European rivals. Getting out of the group isn't a forlorn hope for the Irish, although it is certainly a tough ask.

(Italy's cultured playmaker Andrea Pirlo is too big at 80/1 for Player of the Tournament)

There are plenty of people who will be saying that Spain are sure things for the whole tournament & if they're right then getting out of the group should be a formality but they lost to Switzerland in their first game at the World Cup & they have to face the Azzurri blue here in their opener & that won't be easy. If Italy can pull a out a win in that opener, it all starts to look a little tougher for Spain especially as Ireland & Croatia will be playing with banks of players behind the ball & without David Villa Spain might not have the cutting edge to make the most of the few chances they'll create, those World Cup one nils could easily turn to scoreless draws & a potential early exit. Of course the likelihood is that Spain go through but do we really want to take odds of 1/7 about that? Instead get on Betfair & take a lay of Spain to qualify from the group & lay them at 1.16 & shorter, successful betting is about identifying where the odds are incorrect & taking advantage, Spain are worthy favourites but not that worthy. Whoever does get through the group has a great chance of reaching the quarter finals with only France looking particularly worthy opponents from Group D, if Italy do get to the semis they'll be doing it on the back of displays from Andrea Pirlo & at 80/1 he is a fine bet for Player of the Tournament, he's a class act & with it likely being his final tournament he's a prime contender for the selectors to pick. The final bet here has to be for Group C to be the lowest scoring group at odds of 3/1 - the bookies seem to be overestimating the scoring ability of some of these teams, remember Spain are missing Villa & Italy are without Rossi, Ireland & Croatia may go for it in their opener but are certain to be horribly negative against the other two & there could be some real wars of attrition here. Group A is the short priced favourite for this market but Russia could stick a few in the back of the net & the Czech Republic could be open at the back plus Poland have some pundits' idea of an outright top scorer in Lewandowski so Group C is the bet.

Selections:
Lay Spain at odds of 1.16 (2/13) or shorter to qualify through the group
Andrea Pirlo to be Player of the Tournament at 80/1 (various)
Group C to be lowest scoring group at odds of 3/1 (various)

Euro 2012 Group B - High chance of success for Low's men

It’s fairly obvious why the Group B has been widely described as the tournaments ‘Group of Death’. The group pits nations ranked 2^nd, 4^th, 5^th and 10^th in the FIFA rankings against each another, if any more persuading was needed on the credentials of the group, the four nations have appeared in 12 European Championship Semi Finals and have lifted the trophy on 5 occasions between them.

(Philipp Lahm performs at a high level at all times, like so many of his Germany colleagues)

Germany: Outright Winners 3/1 & Group B Winners 6/5

Germany, under the stewardship of Joachim Low booked their place Euro 2012 with maximum points in qualifying (10 wins out of 10). The bookies make them second favourites to succeed in Poland and Ukraine, captained by Champions League runner up Phillip Lahm Germany are widely available at 3/1. Since qualifying results have been mixed, a 3-0 victory in Hamburg against fellow Group B nation the Netherlands was followed up with back-to-back defeats to the French (1-2) and Swiss 3-5) they did however beat Israel courtesy of Mario Gomez and Bayern Leverkusen’s 21 year old marksman Andre Schurrle in their most recent outing meaning they come into the tournament on the back of a victory. Low’s team will be built around his strong defence Manuel Neuer will play in goal with Jerome Boateng & Phillip Lahm the full backs with Hummels & Badstuber the centre backs. The defence will be protected by formidable midfielder Bastian Schweinsteiger who will also allow the likes of Ozil, Gotze and Kroos to support the aforementioned Gomez. Germany can also call on the evergreen Miroslav Klose who always seems to come to life in the major tournaments. A mere 7 of Low’s likely starters line up together on a regular basis for Champions League and Bundesliga runners up Bayern Munich which gives them a great understanding that is so often missing with national sides. With a group of such high quality players & that understanding it could prove a little too much for the other sides in the group & Germany always perform in the finals of tournaments & backing them at odds against to win the group looks safe even though it is highly competitive.

(Arjen Robben is a joy to watch & will be one of many attacking threats for Holland)

Holland: Outright Winners 7/1 & Group B Winners 2/1

World Cup 2010 runners up Holland are best priced 7/1 (Coral) to triumph this summer. The Dutch, guided by 60-year-old Bert van Marwijk, won 9 out of 10 qualifying games, only losing at the hands of Sweden in a 3-2 thriller in Solna. The offensive side of the Netherlands squad oozes class, Robben, Van Persie, Huntelaar et al will pose a threat to Europe’s top defences; 37 goals in qualifying suggest they know how to find the back of the net. They do however look vulnerable at the back with first choice left back Erik Pieters misses the tournament altogether & highly regarded Gregory van der Wiel, who wowed spectators in the World Cup two years ago, has not been performing at that level in recent months. Centre back pairing John Heitinga and Joris Mathijsen don’t instil us with confidence, Everton’s Heitinga is prone to a mistake or two (as was shown in the recently friendly defeat against Bulgaria), Mathijsen also took a knock in that game and will go into the tournament as a fitness doubt. Playing against pace is a slight worry for the Netherlands, not the weak link you want against the other teams in this group. A positive for the Oranje is that they are no strangers of qualifying from tough groups, 4 years ago they overcame Italy, France and Romania to top Euro 2008's 'Group of Death'.

(Apparently there's 11 players in the Portugal team & we thought there was only one.....)

Portugal: Outright Winners 20/1 & Group B Winners 9/2

The third nation in the group is Portugal who were able to paly with a much greater sense of freedom once Carlos Queiroz was replaced by Paulo Bento as manager. It wasn’t all plain sailing though, defeat against opponents here Denmark meant they needed to qualify via the play-offs to book a place at Euro 2012. Portugal will be missing Danny and Carlos Martins through injury and the likes of Bosingwa and Carvalho have retired from international football. They do still however have a good starting defensive line up, the only worry should be any further injuries or suspensions, Joao Pereira will start at right back & should anything happen to him Bento’s options are limited. Portugal's Achilles heel is a lack of a quality centre forward as Postiga often doesn’t perform well often enough & although Hugo Almeida has shown glimpses of brilliance, which has led to tentative interest from some of Europe’s top sides, the youngster is inexperienced and doesn’t have the nous to lead the line alone. Portugal may be able to get away with not having a world-class centre forward due to one man, Cristiano Ronaldo. Ronaldo’s ability is known the world over and he can carry any team over the line, there is a lot of weight on his shoulders but he wouldn’t have it any other way, expect big things from the Real Madrid man. Ronaldo to be the top Portuguese scorer at the tournament is best priced at 15/8, it’s hard to look past him – he’ll certainly be taking free kicks and penalties which can only aid in his chances of outscoring his compatriots. Postiga is the second favourite, his return of 5 goals in qualifying and 9 goals for club side Real Zaragoza don’t suggest he’s a real threat to the prolific Real Madrid man.

(Holding midfielder William Kvist will be key to Denmark's play)

Denmark: Outright Winners 100/1 & Group B Winners18/1

The final side in Group B are the 1992 Champions Denmark, finishing above Portugal in qualifying suggest they won’t be at Euro 2012 just to make up the numbers although expectations are relatively low and the Danes can therefore play without too much pressure. Morten Olsen will try to frustrate Germany, the Netherlands and Portugal and catch them on the break. It’s unlikely that the Danes will cause the other sides too much of a threat going forwards and therefore they’ll know that they need to keep it as tight as possible at the back. Conceding just 6 goals in qualifying shows they can operate a tight defence & Nicklas Bendtner does a better job for his national side (18 goals in 48 games) than in the Premier League. Although they might exit at the group stages we don’t think they’ll get embarrassed by their opponents. An interesting market is team to concede fewest in the tournament & Denmark are best priced at 22/1, a potentially shrewd gamble if they exit at the first stage having only conceded 1 or 2 goals.

Selections:

Germany to win Group B at 6/5 (William Hill)

Cristiano Ronaldo top Portuguese Scorer at 15/8 (SportingBet and BetVictor)

Denmark to concede fewest goals at Euro 2012 at 22/1 (Ladbrokes and Paddy Power)

African Cup of Nations Semi Finals - Numbers 1 & 2 for a reason

This year's African Cup of Nations is beginning to wind up with the semi finals now upon us & the continent's number one & number two ranked teams are on opposing sides of the draw meaning that a real heavyweight clash could be on the cards for the final in Gabon. We've been keeping an eye on the tournament progress & have watched a few of the latter group games & quarter finals & think that we can see a few slivers of value in the markets for both games on Wednesday.

(Imagine how many victory laps John Paintsil will do if Ghana win in the final!)

The first game of the day is at 4pm British time so it's worth getting your bets on early as Ghana take on Zambia. Ghana are ranked 26th in the world by FIFA & that means they are the 2nd highest ranked side in Africa behind only the Ivory Coast whereas their rivals Zambia are rated just 71st best in the world & 16th best on the continent. This is Zambia's first trip to the semi finals since 1996 & they've played some nice football at times, beating Senegal & the co-hosts Equatorial Guinea in the group stage before dealing with Sudan in the quarter finals by regularly catching them on the break with pace to win 3-0. Although they kept a clean sheet against Sudan they did look a little indisciplined at the back at times with players both going for the same ball & some rushed clearances & having to face their strongest opposition in the competition so far in Ghana could see them caught out. Ghana scored after just 10 minutes against Tunisia in their quarter final but were forced in to extra time before BBC African Footballer of the Year Andre Ayew popped up with a winner, they must have been confident of winning though as the irrepressible John Paintsil was left out of the starting lineup! They've been very solid throughout, winning 1-0 & 2-0 in their opening two games before seeing qualification out with a 1-1 draw with Guinea. Captain John Mensah has popped up with a couple of goals from his centre back position but they have enough quality further forward to not need his help here, Andre Ayew is a real star & Asamoah Gyan has a bit of quality about him up front, Sulley Muntari can win the ball in midfield & get the ball quickly forwards plus has a great goal return in international games with 17 goals in 69 games. Ghana will need to be wary of Christopher Katongo & the improving youngster Emmanuel Mayuka who will likely be paired up front for Zambia but the stronger side should like this match up as Zambia are a little wasteful with the ball at times & often rely too much on pace as their technical ability isn't hugely high. If Ghana can keep getting the ball back they won't give it away too often themselves & we think they can gain another win whilst keeping a clean sheet at odds of 2/1 with Coral.

(Even Spurs fans love him - Ivory Coast's Emmanuel Eboue)

The Ivory Coast are the team with the real stars here & they've won their 4 games so far without conceding a goal, it looks like being a tough night for their opponents Mali who are just coming back off a win by penalty shootout over co-hosts Gabon whose captain, Barcelona's Seydou Keita, is their only real star. The Ivory Coast can call upon the outstanding Yaya Toure, his brother Kolo, Chelsea pairing Salomon Kalou & Didier Drogba, Cheick Tiote & Gervinho from the Premier League alone, that's ignoring cult hero Emmanuel Eboue (now at Galatasary) & CSKA Moscow's speedy winger Seydou Doumbia. They've been efficient & impressive throughout the tournament showing themselves to be deserving favourites, Drogba picked himself up after a missed penalty in the quarter final to stick two goals in afterwards & they must be feeling confident they can improve on their single triumph in this competition. Backing the Ivory Coast at 1/2 to win probably isn't going to make you rich but that really is a value price, they're a step above their opposition here & Mali will likely be tired from their tough win that went to penalties just 3 days ago whilst Ivory Coast played on Saturday.

Selections:
Ghana to win to nil vs Zambia at 2/1 (Coral)
Ivory Coast to beat Mali at 1/2 (Coral & PaddyPower)

Backing the double at Coral pays odds of 7/2