Euro 2012 Fixtures - Sunday 17th June

Can the final Group B games eclipse the surprising & exciting climax in Group A last night? Bookies won the battle yesterday with Russia as short as 1.02 on betfair to qualify for the knock out rounds being beaten by Greece & put out of the tournament. But us punters can get back to winning ways with a simple double tonight...

(The magnificent Bastian Schweinsteiger looks to dominate another opposing side)

7:45 pm - Denmark vs Germany

At the Arena Lviv unbeaten Germany play Denmark who currently sit third in Group B - a draw for Germany would seal top spot but if they lose they could surprisingly bow out of the tournament if Portugal beat Holland whilst Denmark are guaranteed progression if they win but a draw will also be good enough if Portugal lose to Holland.

Germany have lived up to their billing as one of the tournament favourites with victories over Portugal & Holland. All three of Germany's goals have come from striker Mario Gomez who is putting behind him his disappointing display in the Champions League final for Bayern Munich to spearhead the German onslaught. It's no surprise he is getting the opportunities when you have the class of Lukas Podolski, Mesut Ozil & Thomas Muller supplying the ammunition. Behind this quartet you have the classy Bastian Schweinsteiger, two assists so far, who never gives the ball away & it's not like he plays five yard sideways passes but real decisive killer balls which split opposition defences apart & create goal scoring opportunities.

Denmark has shown a number of battling qualities in their first two games. Firstly, a superb defensive display to keep the talented Holland attack at bay in a 1-0 victory & then to comeback from 2-0 down against Portugal to draw level but unfortunately undone by conceding a late winner. They are enforced into one change with flying winger Dennis Rommedahl pulling a hamstring so Tobias Mikkelsen is likely to get the nod over Lasse Schone. Striker Nicklas Bendtner scored a brace against Portugal & has the qualities to cause the defensive duo of Mats Hummels & Holger Badstuber problems in the air if the Danish players can provide need plenty of decent balls.

Germany are a step up in class & consistency compared to Portugal & Holland so look a solid bet at 8/13 as Denmark face a hugely difficult task to get the points required to make the knockout rounds.

(Can Cristiano Ronaldo spring into life & guide his side out of the group?)

7:45 pm - Portugal vs Holland

The other match in Group B looks an entertaining affair on paper as Portugal go up against Holland at the Metalist Stadium, Kharkiv. Holland have it all to do as they need to beat Portugal by two clear goals plus rely on Germany to beat Denmark to qualify whilst Portugal have a must simpler equation of just needing to better the Danes' result to progress.

Holland are having a awful tournament so far with two defeats from two & need a dramatic upturn in performance levels to make the last eight. There seems to be discontent in the ranks highlighted by Arjen Robbens display of petulance when subbed against Denmark & they will all need to be pulling in the same direction to save their tournament. Coach Bert Van Marwijk will go with a more attacking line-up & shape for this one with the likelihood of Rafael van der Vaart & Klaas-jan Huntelaar coming in for Mark van Bommel & Ibrahim Afellay as he looks for goals. The concern though is that they are weakening their midfield defensive shield to an already fragile defence highlighted by Jetro Willems struggles as they can ill afford to concede.

A 87th minute winner from Silvestre Varela saved Portugal from elimination & puts them in the box sit to grab a qualifying spot over Denmark & Holland. They showed good character to come back after letting a two goal lead slip against Denmark & put themselves in this position. A disappointment to them & the footballing public is the below par performances of Cristiano Ronaldo but you would be a very foolish person to write him off. Portugal are likely to be under the cosh in the first 20 minutes as Holland look to get off to a flyer so they will need to tighten up defensively after giving away two sloppy goals, from their point of view, against Denmark & centre back duo Pepe & Bruno Alves will need to keep a close eye on Robin van Persie who found the net with a great strike in his last match.

With both sides better in the oppositions half than their own; goals look the order of the day and the 4/5 available on over 2.5 goals looks massive.
Selections:

Germany to beat Denmark at 8/13 (General)
Over 2.5 goals in the Holland/Portugal match at 4/5 (BlueSquare/Betfair)

The above double pays just under 2/1.

Euro 2012 Fixtures - Wednesday 13th June

Wednesday sees us back in the high quality Group B at Euro 2012 where Denmark look to capitalise on their great start when taking on Portugal & bitter rivals Germany & Holland facing off in the later game. With their first games behind them the bookies may be wising up to which players & teams are to look out for & they'll be shortening the odds accordingly, we're trying to stay one step ahead & are scouring the markets for the best bets available.

(Eeeeeeheeeeeee!! Did I do good Ronaldae!???!! Portugal's dream Bo Selecta! partnership)

5:00 pm - Denmark vs Portugal


Denmark came up with a fantastic result for us against Holland in their opener but did lead rather a charmed life at times with the Dutch failing to make the most of some very presentable chances where the Danish defence parted to let players through at times. Portugal have exactly the type of players in Nani & Ronaldo to expose Denmark's wing backs & we've a feeling this is going to be quite an impressive display from the Iberians.

We were keen on Germany to beat Portugal & they eventually prevailed but the Portuguese central midfield we were so concerned about actually managed to be very disciplined & as good as he is, Christian Eriksen will not be posing the same problems as Mesut Ozil, they'll feel confident in dealing with him. Benfica's emerging youngster Nelson Oliveira came on after 70 minutes for Helder Postiga & offered a step up with some exciting & inventive play but Postiga might just retain his starting spot here.

Denmark did well going forwards against the Dutch defence but Portugal have a pretty good back four, especially Pepe & Bruno Alves at centre back, when Fabio Coentrao bothers sticking at defending rather than flying forwards he isn't bad either! Coentrao should have the pace to deal with Rommedahl & the Dane's crossing wasn't too smart anyway in his first game. If Denmark can get at Portugal it will be with their goalscorer from game one, left winger Michael Krohn-Dehli up against Joao Pereira & Miguel Veloso will need to help out at times.

We've already noted that we like the look of Portugal's wide players who should have the beating of the slower Denmark full backs, Nani is a tempter at 10/1 to score first but Stan James are going a standout 11/2 for the great Ronaldo to score first. His scoring record for Real Madrid is freakily good & although he doesn't bag as many for the national side that looks a little on the big side, again betting on the favourite with Betfred at reduced odds but their double delight/hattrick heaven offer is a potential play as he could easily score more than once. We really do like Portugal & think they can win here without conceding, that offers up odds of 9/4 but maybe a better bet is Portugal on the handicap with -1 goal at odds of 100/30, that looks big for a team with a goalscorer like Ronaldo, who could run riot with a solid defence to back him up.

(It wasn't looking great for Mario Gomez...... then he got his goal. Watch out, Super Mario's powered up!)

7:45 pm - Germany vs Holland

The two sides meeting int the late game, Germany & Holland were two of the outright favourites before the tournament began, although after Denmark's 'shock' win the Dutch have now drifted right out & it's understandable - if they lose here their chances will be looking bleak.

We flagged up a weak defence & undersized defence for Holland before the Denmark match, they look like they'll have first choice centre back Joris Mathijsen back for this one which is a positive but he's only 6 feet tall & Mario Gomez could have a field day against him & Heitinga. Germany looked dangerous when getting the ball out wide right & that will be the key tactic here with the classy Thomas Muller taking on tournament youngster Jetro Willems, who will fill Holland's left back spot, time & time again. Muller's crossing wasn't as good as it should have been but he'll have been hard at work in training & we can see him wreaking havoc with Ozil keeping the defensive midfielders too busy to cover out wide.

Going forwards the Dutch of course look good & they created enough chances against Denmark to have won the game, unfortunately Robin van Persie was all over the place, he might retain his starting spot but it could be in arguably his better role as a number ten to Huntelaar as the point man. If you believe the pundits too much you'd think that the Germans defence is some kind of terribly weak link but in truth Mats Hummels & Holger Badstuber are two of Europe's finest young centre backs, both at the age of 23 & marshaling the defences of their big club teams. If Holland do go attacking they've the quality to cause problems for anyone but they'll have to sacrifice either De Jong or van Bommel & that will risk Mesut Ozil getting way too much of the ball. Germany have their own star holding midfielder in the tireless Sami Khedira & if he plays well that should free up their super attacking threats.

We flagged up in our Euro 2012 group previews our worries about Holland's defence & not much has changed for us. Holland have great attacking flair but when they go forwards they risk being countered against & the defenders aren't the quickest, if they sit back at all balls will get put into their box & they aren't the biggest. A draw wouldn't be the end of the road for the Dutch as they'd still likely have one game against Portugal where they would have to win to progress & that may stop van Marwijk from going too gung ho, if that's the case we reckon the German defence can hold strong. If Holland do go more attacking we feel Germany will exploit their defence & Mario Gomez will be feeling an awful lot more confident after scoring against Portugal, at odds of 6/1 to score first we'll stay with the big man. We've been out to get Holland from the start of the tournament, there are too many good attackers around at the moment for their second rate defence to allow them to progress like they did to the World Cup final & we'll go with Germany to win again here at odds of 6/4. Germany can keep marching on in style & they look like they are the type of side to revel in their favourites status with some really confident types at every position, so they should be - they have some outstanding talent on display.


Selections:
Portugal to beat Denmark with -1 goal a 100/30 (BlueSquare & 888Sport)
Cristiano Ronaldo to score first at 11/2 (Stan James)
Germany to beat Holland at 6/4 (various)
Mario Gomez to score first at 6/1 (various)

Euro 2012 Fixtures - Sat 9th June

Saturday sees the European Championships really get into the swing of things with 'The Group of Death', Group B, seeing its first set of fixtures with World Cup runners up Holland taking on group outsiders Denmark & then our outright fancies Germany trying to get the better of Cristiano Ronaldo & his supporting Portuguese cast.

(Christian Eriksen is a star for the Danes but Holland will know plenty about the Ajax Youngster)

5:00 pm - Holland  v Denmark

The first game on Saturday is between highly fancied Holland & slightly underrated Denmark, the Danes were pretty watertight in defence in qualifying & could frustrate the Dutch here. Denmark have one of the better central defensive pairings in the entire competition with Simon Kjaer & Liverpool's calm & authoritative Daniel Agger. Kjaer has been one of Europe's brightest defensive talents & talk of moves to the Premier League have persisted from when he was 18 onwards, he was very good for Denmark at the last World Cup before moving from Parma to Wolfsburg where his form & confidence took a hit & he was on loan to Roma last season - he's still utterly dependable for his country though & the solid pairing at the back allows their exciting talents to get forwards confidently.

The Danish defence will need to be good with the lethal Robin Van Persie on the prowl for Holland, he scores for fun but doesn't have as good a goalscoring record for the national team as Klaas-Jan Huntelaar who has 3 more goals (31 in total) in 13 fewer games. Robben has 17 goals & Wesley Sneijder has 24 so it shows they certainly don't need to rely on Van Persie & can score goals starting from deeper positions. Our worry with the Dutch is in defence, Stekelenburg is a fine keeper but the central defenders Heitinga & Mathijsen are 5"11 & 6"0 respectively & that lack of height goes right through the team with players like Sneijder & De Jong being diminutive - it's unbelievable for a country with the tallest average height in the world. It isn't just their height that makes the Netherlands suspect defensively, there just isn't a great deal of quality through the back line with Van der Wiel never quite achieving what was expected of him & left back being a weak area in general, Willems, Bouma or Schaars could start there. Holland will say attack is the best form of defence & they always have De Jong & Van Bommel there to sit in front of the back four.

If the Danes are to be successful in this game then they'll want William Kvist to be on top of his game, he'll play as the holding midfielder & has good composure on the ball plus the energy to get around the pitch & be an effective destroyer when Holland get possession, he's the type of player who could adapt excellently to the Premier League. If Kvist performs well then that allows Denmark's midfield maestro Christian Eriksen more time to get on the ball & pick out passes & make little one twos that will set up sole striker Nicklas Bendtner with the chances. Bendtner may be a figure of fun in England (largely down to quotes about believing he could be the best in the world) but he's pretty good for Denmark & gets to play in his correct position as an out & out centre forward with regular service to head & feet & he'll cause some problems for the undersized John Heitinga in the Dutch defence. We don't think that Denmark are better than Holland but the match ups here could be favourable & we're going to advise backing the Danes at 11/2 to expose those Dutch defensive frailties & two Premiership players offer the value for scoring: Nicklas Bendtner is very much the Danish target man & takes the penalties & 10/1 to score first is too big; Daniel Agger takes penalties if Bendtner doesn't plus will get forward for set pieces & is 16/1 to score anytime or 40/1 to score first.

(Mesut Ozil could have some fun against Portugal's weak defensive midfielders)

7:45 pm - Germany vs Portugal

The second game of the evening is between our 'outright' pick of Germany vs Portugal at the Arena Lviv. It should be a cracking game with all the attacking talent on the pitch & both sides know that three points here will be vital in such a tough looking Group B.

Germany coach Joachim Low has told the press that he squad has a clean bill of health after injury concerns to captain Phillip Lahm, Sami Khedira & the inspirational midfielder Bastian Schweinsteiger. On paper the Germans have an excellent starting eleven with a good mix between youngsters coming through but with the experience from the last World Cup behind them, & experienced players & with the likelihood of seven starters coming from Bayern Munich this can only be another positive. They have improved defensively from the last two major tournaments & they will be need to be on top of their game individually & collectively to combat the biggest talent in Europe, & arguably the World, in Cristiano Ronaldo. Ronaldo is likely to start on the left of a top three but will drift more centrally with regularity so you would expect the disciplined Sami Khedira's role to be helping out right back Jermone Boateng & the rest of the backline at all times, he may well end up almost taking up a man-marking role. If Germany do concentrate too much on Ronaldo then full time Michael Jackson impersonator Nani has all the skills & tricks to take apart a side but he still doesn't do it quite often enough.

Portugal don't have a bad defence at all with Bruno Alves & Pepe at the centre & Fabio Coentrao & Joao Pereira have plenty of Champions League experience in the full back positions, goalkeeper isn't such a great position & there isn't a lot between Eduardo or Rui Patricio. The back four are decent but they don't have as much quality in their holding/defensive midfielders as other sides with Miguel Veloso being decent but some way off top class & Moutinho never fully convincing us & Raul Meireles not being renowned for his defensive application. That part of the field, just off the front man, is where Germany are strongest & Mesut Ozil could have a field day here with Schweinsteiger bossing the Portuguese players & gaining possession time & time again. We just Germany getting off to a great start with a win at odds of 6/5 before their big second game against the Netherlands. Mesut Ozil is a tempter for first scorer as we really fancy him to have a good game but Mario Gomez is Germany's main striker & 11/2 looks a little big for a player with a very good scoring record & excellent season behind him (Robin Van Persie is only as big as 4/1 in earlier game).

Selections:
Denmark to beat Holland at 11/2 (various)
Daniel Agger to score first at 40/1 (Stan James) & at anytime at 16/1 (William Hill)
Nicklas Bendtner to score first at 10/1 (Stan James & BetVictor)

Germany to beat Portugal at 6/5 (BetVictor)

Mario Gomez to score first at 11/2 (various)

Euro 2012 Group B - High chance of success for Low's men

It’s fairly obvious why the Group B has been widely described as the tournaments ‘Group of Death’. The group pits nations ranked 2^nd, 4^th, 5^th and 10^th in the FIFA rankings against each another, if any more persuading was needed on the credentials of the group, the four nations have appeared in 12 European Championship Semi Finals and have lifted the trophy on 5 occasions between them.

(Philipp Lahm performs at a high level at all times, like so many of his Germany colleagues)

Germany: Outright Winners 3/1 & Group B Winners 6/5

Germany, under the stewardship of Joachim Low booked their place Euro 2012 with maximum points in qualifying (10 wins out of 10). The bookies make them second favourites to succeed in Poland and Ukraine, captained by Champions League runner up Phillip Lahm Germany are widely available at 3/1. Since qualifying results have been mixed, a 3-0 victory in Hamburg against fellow Group B nation the Netherlands was followed up with back-to-back defeats to the French (1-2) and Swiss 3-5) they did however beat Israel courtesy of Mario Gomez and Bayern Leverkusen’s 21 year old marksman Andre Schurrle in their most recent outing meaning they come into the tournament on the back of a victory. Low’s team will be built around his strong defence Manuel Neuer will play in goal with Jerome Boateng & Phillip Lahm the full backs with Hummels & Badstuber the centre backs. The defence will be protected by formidable midfielder Bastian Schweinsteiger who will also allow the likes of Ozil, Gotze and Kroos to support the aforementioned Gomez. Germany can also call on the evergreen Miroslav Klose who always seems to come to life in the major tournaments. A mere 7 of Low’s likely starters line up together on a regular basis for Champions League and Bundesliga runners up Bayern Munich which gives them a great understanding that is so often missing with national sides. With a group of such high quality players & that understanding it could prove a little too much for the other sides in the group & Germany always perform in the finals of tournaments & backing them at odds against to win the group looks safe even though it is highly competitive.

(Arjen Robben is a joy to watch & will be one of many attacking threats for Holland)

Holland: Outright Winners 7/1 & Group B Winners 2/1

World Cup 2010 runners up Holland are best priced 7/1 (Coral) to triumph this summer. The Dutch, guided by 60-year-old Bert van Marwijk, won 9 out of 10 qualifying games, only losing at the hands of Sweden in a 3-2 thriller in Solna. The offensive side of the Netherlands squad oozes class, Robben, Van Persie, Huntelaar et al will pose a threat to Europe’s top defences; 37 goals in qualifying suggest they know how to find the back of the net. They do however look vulnerable at the back with first choice left back Erik Pieters misses the tournament altogether & highly regarded Gregory van der Wiel, who wowed spectators in the World Cup two years ago, has not been performing at that level in recent months. Centre back pairing John Heitinga and Joris Mathijsen don’t instil us with confidence, Everton’s Heitinga is prone to a mistake or two (as was shown in the recently friendly defeat against Bulgaria), Mathijsen also took a knock in that game and will go into the tournament as a fitness doubt. Playing against pace is a slight worry for the Netherlands, not the weak link you want against the other teams in this group. A positive for the Oranje is that they are no strangers of qualifying from tough groups, 4 years ago they overcame Italy, France and Romania to top Euro 2008's 'Group of Death'.

(Apparently there's 11 players in the Portugal team & we thought there was only one.....)

Portugal: Outright Winners 20/1 & Group B Winners 9/2

The third nation in the group is Portugal who were able to paly with a much greater sense of freedom once Carlos Queiroz was replaced by Paulo Bento as manager. It wasn’t all plain sailing though, defeat against opponents here Denmark meant they needed to qualify via the play-offs to book a place at Euro 2012. Portugal will be missing Danny and Carlos Martins through injury and the likes of Bosingwa and Carvalho have retired from international football. They do still however have a good starting defensive line up, the only worry should be any further injuries or suspensions, Joao Pereira will start at right back & should anything happen to him Bento’s options are limited. Portugal's Achilles heel is a lack of a quality centre forward as Postiga often doesn’t perform well often enough & although Hugo Almeida has shown glimpses of brilliance, which has led to tentative interest from some of Europe’s top sides, the youngster is inexperienced and doesn’t have the nous to lead the line alone. Portugal may be able to get away with not having a world-class centre forward due to one man, Cristiano Ronaldo. Ronaldo’s ability is known the world over and he can carry any team over the line, there is a lot of weight on his shoulders but he wouldn’t have it any other way, expect big things from the Real Madrid man. Ronaldo to be the top Portuguese scorer at the tournament is best priced at 15/8, it’s hard to look past him – he’ll certainly be taking free kicks and penalties which can only aid in his chances of outscoring his compatriots. Postiga is the second favourite, his return of 5 goals in qualifying and 9 goals for club side Real Zaragoza don’t suggest he’s a real threat to the prolific Real Madrid man.

(Holding midfielder William Kvist will be key to Denmark's play)

Denmark: Outright Winners 100/1 & Group B Winners18/1

The final side in Group B are the 1992 Champions Denmark, finishing above Portugal in qualifying suggest they won’t be at Euro 2012 just to make up the numbers although expectations are relatively low and the Danes can therefore play without too much pressure. Morten Olsen will try to frustrate Germany, the Netherlands and Portugal and catch them on the break. It’s unlikely that the Danes will cause the other sides too much of a threat going forwards and therefore they’ll know that they need to keep it as tight as possible at the back. Conceding just 6 goals in qualifying shows they can operate a tight defence & Nicklas Bendtner does a better job for his national side (18 goals in 48 games) than in the Premier League. Although they might exit at the group stages we don’t think they’ll get embarrassed by their opponents. An interesting market is team to concede fewest in the tournament & Denmark are best priced at 22/1, a potentially shrewd gamble if they exit at the first stage having only conceded 1 or 2 goals.

Selections:

Germany to win Group B at 6/5 (William Hill)

Cristiano Ronaldo top Portuguese Scorer at 15/8 (SportingBet and BetVictor)

Denmark to concede fewest goals at Euro 2012 at 22/1 (Ladbrokes and Paddy Power)