Euro 2012 2nd Semi Final - Die Mannschaft to give Azzurri the Blues

The second semi final takes place at the National Stadium, Warsaw between our pre-tournament outright pick Germany and England's conquerors Italy. In their respective quarter finals the Germans easily overcame Greece 4-2 whilst Italy dominated an unambitious & technically deficient England side but could only muster victory via a penalty shootout.



(Mario Gomez could return to the starting lineup to feed off the excellent service of Mesut Ozil)

Coach Joachim Low guided his side to a record breaking 15th successive competitive win despite resting the attacking trio of Thomas Muller, Mario Gomez & Lukas Podolski in their quarter final match & gave exciting youngsters Andre Schurrle & Marco Reus and the evergreen Miroslav Klose game time after their limited involvement in the group phrase. Not only did it provide the usual starters a prolonged period of rest but the two youngsters were excellent & Klose popped up with a goal so provides Low with confident attacking options from the bench if needed. There are plenty of calls for all three quarter final attackers to keep their spots & we were hugely impressed with Reus especially - if he's equally effective on the left of attack he could easily nick Lukas Podolski's place in the starting eleven. If Reus does start we think he's a cracking bet to open the scoring at 9/1 & is worth a punt, if he doesn't start & there's a goal before he gets on the pitch you'll get your stake back anyway.

Italy dominated quarter finalists England in every department Sunday night but it doesn't hide the fact they didn't manage to find a breakthrough, they may have hit the woodwork twice & registered nearly twenty attempts on target but none were more than regulation saves for England keeper Joe Hart (who also pulled off one of his now trademark knockdowns straight to an attacker). It means that Italy have only scored one goal in ten games from open play & strikers Mario Balotelli, Antonio Cassano & Antonio Di Natale should find the chances much harder to come by against Germany.



(Stop Andrea Pirlo....... stop Italy?)

Italy do have one of the standout players of the tournament so far in playmaker Andrea Pirlo (tipped here at 80/1 for the player of the tournament title) - it seems unbelievable that Milan released him on a free transfer last summer; a decision which backfired when he guided rivals Juventus to the title last season & he's continued his fine form here. Pirlo has an intriguing battle ahead with the excellent combination of Sami Khedira & Bastian Schweinsteiger looking to stop him pulling the strings for the Italians - if they can, which will be far from easy, then you fear for the Italians in a creative sense & it could spell the end of their championship run.

A changed German side have had virtually a whole week off since their quarter final whilst Italy have had to contend with extra time & penalties two days later. Freshness is with the Germans & Italy also have to cope with a number of muscle injuries to defenders Ignazio Abate & Giorgio Chiellini and Roma's midfielder Daniele De Rossi - it remains to be seen which players recover in time for the game. Italy will also have wing back Christian Maggio suspended for the game which further limits their options, Germany's talisman Bastian Schweinsteiger is a slight injury worry again but he should be ready. Germany seem to have that bit more quality in terms of goal threats throughout the side so take advantage of the general 10/11 on offer for them to beat the Azzurri in 90 minutes & make the final.

Selections:

Germany to beat Italy at 10/11 (various)
Marco Reus to score first at9/1 (Bet365, BetVictor & Stan James)

Euro 2012 Quarter Finals - Friday 22nd June

Germany are highly fancied for outright victory for Euro 2012 & were our pre-tournament picks for glory, they'll need to progress past Group A runners up Greece but if they can they'll be favourites to beat either Italy or England in the semi finals. Our preview & one solid bet for the game is below & we'll be hoping it can prove to be as successful as our Portugal picks in the first quarter final.

(Mesut Ozil & Bastian Schweinsteiger can provide the chances for Germany to prosper)

The second Quarter Final takes place at the PGE Arena, Gdansk with Germany playing Euro 2004 winners Greece. Germany came through the 'group of death' with a perfect record with nine points whilst Greece sprung a surprise beating Russia & claiming the runners-up spot in Group A. The German side picks itself apart from the right back spot where Joachim Low has the choice between Jerome Boateng & Lars Bender. Despite a well taken strike by Bender against Denmark we would expect Low to return to the reliable Boateng for this one.

By winning all three of their group games; Germany have extended their winning streak to 14 competitive games & look the side to beat in Euro 2012, they have quality throughout & look to have the best balanced side in the tournament which doesn't seem to have an obvious weakness. Their defensive unit of keeper Manuel Neuer & back four of Phillip Lahm, Mats Hummels, Holger Badstuber & Jerome Boateng have faced moments of pressure, most notably the second half vs Holland, & have looked solid. Here they will face a lone striker so we can't envisage any real problems in open play but they will need to sharpen up when defending set pieces after conceding a sloppy set play goal against Denmark.

Bastian Schweinsteiger, Sami Khedira & Mesut Ozil will have lots & lots of possession as the Greek side sit deep in their own half with numbers behind the ball. All three players have plenty of experience & won't panic in possession & will keep the ball moving between them until that perfect pass is available to the attacking trio Lukas Podolski, Thomas Muller & spearhead Mario Gomez. Gomez already has three goals to his name & will be looking to push on in his personal pursuit of the golden boot but there's no value in him to score first or at anytime in the markets.

The Greeks have had a mixed tournament in terms of results & performances so far & it was a surprise they made it out of the group at the expense of Russia & co-hosts Poland. At the start of the tournament they tried to be more offensive which saw them only pick up one point from two games so when needing a result against Russia they reverted back to their ultra defensive philosophy & shape. They stole a goal on the stroke of half time through Giorgios Karagounis & spent the whole of the second half sitting deep & defending in numbers as they withstood all that was thrown at them with relative ease & not a little defensive confidence. Greece may find it harder to hold firm against the Germans though as they can break down sides with directness & power but also with the guile of Schweinsteiger & Ozil's passing.

(The suspension of Giorgios Karagounis is a major blow to Greek hopes)

The Greeks may have to alter their game plan slightly due to the suspension of inspirational captain Giorgios Karagounis after he was harshly booked for diving when actually cleared tripped by Russia's Sergei Ignashevich. The likelihood is that either Grigoris Makos or Giorgos Fotakis will replace him but neither player has the same influence or ability as Karagounis to fill the void. Not only is Karagounis the driving force behind the side but also delivers expertly into the penalty box, without his delivery you can't see a way of Greece breaching a solid German defence so take advantage of the evens on offer for Germany to win with a clean sheet.

Selections:
Germany to win with a clean sheet at evens (Stan James)

Euro 2012 Fixtures - Sunday 17th June

Can the final Group B games eclipse the surprising & exciting climax in Group A last night? Bookies won the battle yesterday with Russia as short as 1.02 on betfair to qualify for the knock out rounds being beaten by Greece & put out of the tournament. But us punters can get back to winning ways with a simple double tonight...

(The magnificent Bastian Schweinsteiger looks to dominate another opposing side)

7:45 pm - Denmark vs Germany

At the Arena Lviv unbeaten Germany play Denmark who currently sit third in Group B - a draw for Germany would seal top spot but if they lose they could surprisingly bow out of the tournament if Portugal beat Holland whilst Denmark are guaranteed progression if they win but a draw will also be good enough if Portugal lose to Holland.

Germany have lived up to their billing as one of the tournament favourites with victories over Portugal & Holland. All three of Germany's goals have come from striker Mario Gomez who is putting behind him his disappointing display in the Champions League final for Bayern Munich to spearhead the German onslaught. It's no surprise he is getting the opportunities when you have the class of Lukas Podolski, Mesut Ozil & Thomas Muller supplying the ammunition. Behind this quartet you have the classy Bastian Schweinsteiger, two assists so far, who never gives the ball away & it's not like he plays five yard sideways passes but real decisive killer balls which split opposition defences apart & create goal scoring opportunities.

Denmark has shown a number of battling qualities in their first two games. Firstly, a superb defensive display to keep the talented Holland attack at bay in a 1-0 victory & then to comeback from 2-0 down against Portugal to draw level but unfortunately undone by conceding a late winner. They are enforced into one change with flying winger Dennis Rommedahl pulling a hamstring so Tobias Mikkelsen is likely to get the nod over Lasse Schone. Striker Nicklas Bendtner scored a brace against Portugal & has the qualities to cause the defensive duo of Mats Hummels & Holger Badstuber problems in the air if the Danish players can provide need plenty of decent balls.

Germany are a step up in class & consistency compared to Portugal & Holland so look a solid bet at 8/13 as Denmark face a hugely difficult task to get the points required to make the knockout rounds.

(Can Cristiano Ronaldo spring into life & guide his side out of the group?)

7:45 pm - Portugal vs Holland

The other match in Group B looks an entertaining affair on paper as Portugal go up against Holland at the Metalist Stadium, Kharkiv. Holland have it all to do as they need to beat Portugal by two clear goals plus rely on Germany to beat Denmark to qualify whilst Portugal have a must simpler equation of just needing to better the Danes' result to progress.

Holland are having a awful tournament so far with two defeats from two & need a dramatic upturn in performance levels to make the last eight. There seems to be discontent in the ranks highlighted by Arjen Robbens display of petulance when subbed against Denmark & they will all need to be pulling in the same direction to save their tournament. Coach Bert Van Marwijk will go with a more attacking line-up & shape for this one with the likelihood of Rafael van der Vaart & Klaas-jan Huntelaar coming in for Mark van Bommel & Ibrahim Afellay as he looks for goals. The concern though is that they are weakening their midfield defensive shield to an already fragile defence highlighted by Jetro Willems struggles as they can ill afford to concede.

A 87th minute winner from Silvestre Varela saved Portugal from elimination & puts them in the box sit to grab a qualifying spot over Denmark & Holland. They showed good character to come back after letting a two goal lead slip against Denmark & put themselves in this position. A disappointment to them & the footballing public is the below par performances of Cristiano Ronaldo but you would be a very foolish person to write him off. Portugal are likely to be under the cosh in the first 20 minutes as Holland look to get off to a flyer so they will need to tighten up defensively after giving away two sloppy goals, from their point of view, against Denmark & centre back duo Pepe & Bruno Alves will need to keep a close eye on Robin van Persie who found the net with a great strike in his last match.

With both sides better in the oppositions half than their own; goals look the order of the day and the 4/5 available on over 2.5 goals looks massive.
Selections:

Germany to beat Denmark at 8/13 (General)
Over 2.5 goals in the Holland/Portugal match at 4/5 (BlueSquare/Betfair)

The above double pays just under 2/1.

Euro 2012 Fixtures - Wednesday 13th June

Wednesday sees us back in the high quality Group B at Euro 2012 where Denmark look to capitalise on their great start when taking on Portugal & bitter rivals Germany & Holland facing off in the later game. With their first games behind them the bookies may be wising up to which players & teams are to look out for & they'll be shortening the odds accordingly, we're trying to stay one step ahead & are scouring the markets for the best bets available.

(Eeeeeeheeeeeee!! Did I do good Ronaldae!???!! Portugal's dream Bo Selecta! partnership)

5:00 pm - Denmark vs Portugal


Denmark came up with a fantastic result for us against Holland in their opener but did lead rather a charmed life at times with the Dutch failing to make the most of some very presentable chances where the Danish defence parted to let players through at times. Portugal have exactly the type of players in Nani & Ronaldo to expose Denmark's wing backs & we've a feeling this is going to be quite an impressive display from the Iberians.

We were keen on Germany to beat Portugal & they eventually prevailed but the Portuguese central midfield we were so concerned about actually managed to be very disciplined & as good as he is, Christian Eriksen will not be posing the same problems as Mesut Ozil, they'll feel confident in dealing with him. Benfica's emerging youngster Nelson Oliveira came on after 70 minutes for Helder Postiga & offered a step up with some exciting & inventive play but Postiga might just retain his starting spot here.

Denmark did well going forwards against the Dutch defence but Portugal have a pretty good back four, especially Pepe & Bruno Alves at centre back, when Fabio Coentrao bothers sticking at defending rather than flying forwards he isn't bad either! Coentrao should have the pace to deal with Rommedahl & the Dane's crossing wasn't too smart anyway in his first game. If Denmark can get at Portugal it will be with their goalscorer from game one, left winger Michael Krohn-Dehli up against Joao Pereira & Miguel Veloso will need to help out at times.

We've already noted that we like the look of Portugal's wide players who should have the beating of the slower Denmark full backs, Nani is a tempter at 10/1 to score first but Stan James are going a standout 11/2 for the great Ronaldo to score first. His scoring record for Real Madrid is freakily good & although he doesn't bag as many for the national side that looks a little on the big side, again betting on the favourite with Betfred at reduced odds but their double delight/hattrick heaven offer is a potential play as he could easily score more than once. We really do like Portugal & think they can win here without conceding, that offers up odds of 9/4 but maybe a better bet is Portugal on the handicap with -1 goal at odds of 100/30, that looks big for a team with a goalscorer like Ronaldo, who could run riot with a solid defence to back him up.

(It wasn't looking great for Mario Gomez...... then he got his goal. Watch out, Super Mario's powered up!)

7:45 pm - Germany vs Holland

The two sides meeting int the late game, Germany & Holland were two of the outright favourites before the tournament began, although after Denmark's 'shock' win the Dutch have now drifted right out & it's understandable - if they lose here their chances will be looking bleak.

We flagged up a weak defence & undersized defence for Holland before the Denmark match, they look like they'll have first choice centre back Joris Mathijsen back for this one which is a positive but he's only 6 feet tall & Mario Gomez could have a field day against him & Heitinga. Germany looked dangerous when getting the ball out wide right & that will be the key tactic here with the classy Thomas Muller taking on tournament youngster Jetro Willems, who will fill Holland's left back spot, time & time again. Muller's crossing wasn't as good as it should have been but he'll have been hard at work in training & we can see him wreaking havoc with Ozil keeping the defensive midfielders too busy to cover out wide.

Going forwards the Dutch of course look good & they created enough chances against Denmark to have won the game, unfortunately Robin van Persie was all over the place, he might retain his starting spot but it could be in arguably his better role as a number ten to Huntelaar as the point man. If you believe the pundits too much you'd think that the Germans defence is some kind of terribly weak link but in truth Mats Hummels & Holger Badstuber are two of Europe's finest young centre backs, both at the age of 23 & marshaling the defences of their big club teams. If Holland do go attacking they've the quality to cause problems for anyone but they'll have to sacrifice either De Jong or van Bommel & that will risk Mesut Ozil getting way too much of the ball. Germany have their own star holding midfielder in the tireless Sami Khedira & if he plays well that should free up their super attacking threats.

We flagged up in our Euro 2012 group previews our worries about Holland's defence & not much has changed for us. Holland have great attacking flair but when they go forwards they risk being countered against & the defenders aren't the quickest, if they sit back at all balls will get put into their box & they aren't the biggest. A draw wouldn't be the end of the road for the Dutch as they'd still likely have one game against Portugal where they would have to win to progress & that may stop van Marwijk from going too gung ho, if that's the case we reckon the German defence can hold strong. If Holland do go more attacking we feel Germany will exploit their defence & Mario Gomez will be feeling an awful lot more confident after scoring against Portugal, at odds of 6/1 to score first we'll stay with the big man. We've been out to get Holland from the start of the tournament, there are too many good attackers around at the moment for their second rate defence to allow them to progress like they did to the World Cup final & we'll go with Germany to win again here at odds of 6/4. Germany can keep marching on in style & they look like they are the type of side to revel in their favourites status with some really confident types at every position, so they should be - they have some outstanding talent on display.


Selections:
Portugal to beat Denmark with -1 goal a 100/30 (BlueSquare & 888Sport)
Cristiano Ronaldo to score first at 11/2 (Stan James)
Germany to beat Holland at 6/4 (various)
Mario Gomez to score first at 6/1 (various)

Euro 2012 Fixtures - Sat 9th June

Saturday sees the European Championships really get into the swing of things with 'The Group of Death', Group B, seeing its first set of fixtures with World Cup runners up Holland taking on group outsiders Denmark & then our outright fancies Germany trying to get the better of Cristiano Ronaldo & his supporting Portuguese cast.

(Christian Eriksen is a star for the Danes but Holland will know plenty about the Ajax Youngster)

5:00 pm - Holland  v Denmark

The first game on Saturday is between highly fancied Holland & slightly underrated Denmark, the Danes were pretty watertight in defence in qualifying & could frustrate the Dutch here. Denmark have one of the better central defensive pairings in the entire competition with Simon Kjaer & Liverpool's calm & authoritative Daniel Agger. Kjaer has been one of Europe's brightest defensive talents & talk of moves to the Premier League have persisted from when he was 18 onwards, he was very good for Denmark at the last World Cup before moving from Parma to Wolfsburg where his form & confidence took a hit & he was on loan to Roma last season - he's still utterly dependable for his country though & the solid pairing at the back allows their exciting talents to get forwards confidently.

The Danish defence will need to be good with the lethal Robin Van Persie on the prowl for Holland, he scores for fun but doesn't have as good a goalscoring record for the national team as Klaas-Jan Huntelaar who has 3 more goals (31 in total) in 13 fewer games. Robben has 17 goals & Wesley Sneijder has 24 so it shows they certainly don't need to rely on Van Persie & can score goals starting from deeper positions. Our worry with the Dutch is in defence, Stekelenburg is a fine keeper but the central defenders Heitinga & Mathijsen are 5"11 & 6"0 respectively & that lack of height goes right through the team with players like Sneijder & De Jong being diminutive - it's unbelievable for a country with the tallest average height in the world. It isn't just their height that makes the Netherlands suspect defensively, there just isn't a great deal of quality through the back line with Van der Wiel never quite achieving what was expected of him & left back being a weak area in general, Willems, Bouma or Schaars could start there. Holland will say attack is the best form of defence & they always have De Jong & Van Bommel there to sit in front of the back four.

If the Danes are to be successful in this game then they'll want William Kvist to be on top of his game, he'll play as the holding midfielder & has good composure on the ball plus the energy to get around the pitch & be an effective destroyer when Holland get possession, he's the type of player who could adapt excellently to the Premier League. If Kvist performs well then that allows Denmark's midfield maestro Christian Eriksen more time to get on the ball & pick out passes & make little one twos that will set up sole striker Nicklas Bendtner with the chances. Bendtner may be a figure of fun in England (largely down to quotes about believing he could be the best in the world) but he's pretty good for Denmark & gets to play in his correct position as an out & out centre forward with regular service to head & feet & he'll cause some problems for the undersized John Heitinga in the Dutch defence. We don't think that Denmark are better than Holland but the match ups here could be favourable & we're going to advise backing the Danes at 11/2 to expose those Dutch defensive frailties & two Premiership players offer the value for scoring: Nicklas Bendtner is very much the Danish target man & takes the penalties & 10/1 to score first is too big; Daniel Agger takes penalties if Bendtner doesn't plus will get forward for set pieces & is 16/1 to score anytime or 40/1 to score first.

(Mesut Ozil could have some fun against Portugal's weak defensive midfielders)

7:45 pm - Germany vs Portugal

The second game of the evening is between our 'outright' pick of Germany vs Portugal at the Arena Lviv. It should be a cracking game with all the attacking talent on the pitch & both sides know that three points here will be vital in such a tough looking Group B.

Germany coach Joachim Low has told the press that he squad has a clean bill of health after injury concerns to captain Phillip Lahm, Sami Khedira & the inspirational midfielder Bastian Schweinsteiger. On paper the Germans have an excellent starting eleven with a good mix between youngsters coming through but with the experience from the last World Cup behind them, & experienced players & with the likelihood of seven starters coming from Bayern Munich this can only be another positive. They have improved defensively from the last two major tournaments & they will be need to be on top of their game individually & collectively to combat the biggest talent in Europe, & arguably the World, in Cristiano Ronaldo. Ronaldo is likely to start on the left of a top three but will drift more centrally with regularity so you would expect the disciplined Sami Khedira's role to be helping out right back Jermone Boateng & the rest of the backline at all times, he may well end up almost taking up a man-marking role. If Germany do concentrate too much on Ronaldo then full time Michael Jackson impersonator Nani has all the skills & tricks to take apart a side but he still doesn't do it quite often enough.

Portugal don't have a bad defence at all with Bruno Alves & Pepe at the centre & Fabio Coentrao & Joao Pereira have plenty of Champions League experience in the full back positions, goalkeeper isn't such a great position & there isn't a lot between Eduardo or Rui Patricio. The back four are decent but they don't have as much quality in their holding/defensive midfielders as other sides with Miguel Veloso being decent but some way off top class & Moutinho never fully convincing us & Raul Meireles not being renowned for his defensive application. That part of the field, just off the front man, is where Germany are strongest & Mesut Ozil could have a field day here with Schweinsteiger bossing the Portuguese players & gaining possession time & time again. We just Germany getting off to a great start with a win at odds of 6/5 before their big second game against the Netherlands. Mesut Ozil is a tempter for first scorer as we really fancy him to have a good game but Mario Gomez is Germany's main striker & 11/2 looks a little big for a player with a very good scoring record & excellent season behind him (Robin Van Persie is only as big as 4/1 in earlier game).

Selections:
Denmark to beat Holland at 11/2 (various)
Daniel Agger to score first at 40/1 (Stan James) & at anytime at 16/1 (William Hill)
Nicklas Bendtner to score first at 10/1 (Stan James & BetVictor)

Germany to beat Portugal at 6/5 (BetVictor)

Mario Gomez to score first at 11/2 (various)

Euro 2012 - And the Winners are...........

The European Championships are just hours away now & we've already brought our group by group, team by team previews to you but here we'll round up all of our selections & give our thoughts on where the best outright value lies for the tournament.

(Germany's young guns are our outright picks for Euro 2012)

It takes an awful lot to win a European Championship, the right set of players, complimentary tactics, a decent draw & a little bit of luck can all go some way to setting a side up for a Championship run & the side that look like proving toughest to stop here have to be Germany. The Germans seem to have become plenty of peoples' idea of champions & it has been refreshing to hear so many English fans have somewhat of a soft spot for our Saxon neighbours rather than the usual nonsense. It helps that Germany play such an exciting & attacking brand of football with youngsters such as Toni Kroos, Thomas Muller & especially Mesut Ozil all catching the eye with chance creation. Ozil is as short as 8/1 (Ladbrokes) to be player of the tournament & we can see why he'd be popular as he was brilliant at the last World Cup when coming in as an unkown outside of Germany & has continued that fine form now playing for the world's biggest club side in Real Madrid, you can get 14/1 on him to be awarded best player & that's a more tempting offer.

German & English football has shared many similar qualities over the years but there are plenty of differences now, as if to emphasise that Joachim Low has been able to select 8 Bayern Munich players, a side that reached the Champions League final & were arguably this year's best side in the competition, whereas Roy Hodgson now has 6 Liverpool players in his squad - the more said about their appalling performance this season the better. Plenty of those Bayern players are likely to be starters too & that means they have an advantage over most national teams that are having to find their way into tournaments, building team spirit & cohesion. The incredibly young age of the Germans would prove a worry if it weren't for the wealth of experience these youngsters already have for the national side & top European teams, 17 of the 23 in their squad are 26 years old or younger & only two are 30 or older - backup keeper Tim Wiese & talismanic striker Miroslav 'Tournament' Klose. The defence would be the one area that could be argued to be a weak spot for the Germans but 4 of the 5 are Bayern regulars with the imposing Manuel Neuer between the sticks & Boateng & our absolute favourite Philipp Lahm at the full back spots. 23 year old Mats Hummels is the one non-Bayern player at the back but he started out there before moving on a couple of years ago to achieve a lot of success with Borussia Dortmund & he can be relied upon.

(Andrea Schurrle has 7 goals in 14 appearances for Germany)

If there is to be a breakout star for Germany we think it could come in the form of 21 year old Andrea Schurrle who already has 7 goals in 14 games for the national side & has scored against Switzerland & Israel in the warmup games, if for some reason 'Super' Mario Gomez fails to fire on the big stage it could be Schurrle who benefits. Backing Schurrle to be last scorer in games could be a play as he may come on as a super sub to start with, if he can establish himself in the team he could even make a play for the top German scorer at 16/1.

(Ibrahimovic is too big at 50/1 to be top scorer at Euro 2012)

Our other outright bets are at huge odds yet we think they should be a little shorter in the betting with Samir Nasri (66/1) & Andrea Pirlo (80/1) to pick up the player of the tournament prize both key players for their sides who get plenty of the ball & are in teams with the potential to reach the semi finals - reaching the final 4 should be key to scoring this prize. The other player who is being massively underrated, as usual here in England, is Zlatan Ibrahimovic for tournament top scorer at 50/1, he bangs the goals in for team(s) & country & has a good supporting cast of creators in midfield for Sweden. We fancy the Swedes to get out of their group & Ibrahimovic is worth a little look in the market as 5 goals could potentially bag the prize outright.

(Russia are far superior to their Group A rivals)

The other side we reckon are worth considering for winning the whole tournament is France but their odds have shortened considerably & they no longer look such a solid betting proposition at just 10/1. If Benzema stays fit & in top form France will be dangerous to everyone but if he were to drop out his backups are not near his quality, the defence is a little weaker than the rest of their team too, as the selection of Arsenal's Laurent Koscielny in the squad illustrates. We haven't a lot of love for Spain at the prices but clearly they are a top class outfit, it might just be that time & plenty of matches on the legs of their key Barcelona players start to catch up with them & we think they could find it hard to break down the defences of Italy & Ireland, meaning a lay of them at cramped odds to qualify the group looks a play. Our best bet of the tournament has to be Russia to win Group A at odds of 6/4, that is underestimating just how superior the Russians are to the other 3 sides, Greece are limited & the Czech Republic could be the worst side in the finals. Poland are here as hosts & can play a little but are still some way below the Russians who are coming into the tournament in decent nick & they reached the semis, playing some quality football, 4 years ago.

Whatever you end up going for we wish you the best of luck in giving the bookies a beating! Our outright & group specific bets are all listed below.

Outright Selections:
Germany to win tournament at 3/1
Samir Nasri (France) to be player of the tournament at 66/1
Andrea Pirlo (Italy) to be player of the tournament at 80/1
Zlatan Ibrahimovic to be top tournament goalscorer at 50/1 (each way 1/4 odds 1-2-3-4)

Group A picks:
Russia to win Group A at 6/4 (Like Buying Money's Star Bet)
Russia to beat Czech Republic at 5/4
Robert Lewandowski to be top Group A goalscorer at 11/4
Czech Republic to finish bottom of Group A at 11/5

Group B picks:
Germany to win Group B at 6/5
Cristiano Ronaldo to be top Portuguese scorer at 15/8
Denmark to concede fewest goals in tournament at 22/1

Group C picks:
Lay Spain at 1.16 or lower to qualify from Group C
Group C to be lowest scoring group at 3/1

Group D picks:
France/Sweden straight forecast for Group D at 12/1
Sweden/France straight forecast for Group D at 18/1
Andriy Yarmolenko to be top Ukranian goalscorer at 6/1

Euro 2012 Group B - High chance of success for Low's men

It’s fairly obvious why the Group B has been widely described as the tournaments ‘Group of Death’. The group pits nations ranked 2^nd, 4^th, 5^th and 10^th in the FIFA rankings against each another, if any more persuading was needed on the credentials of the group, the four nations have appeared in 12 European Championship Semi Finals and have lifted the trophy on 5 occasions between them.

(Philipp Lahm performs at a high level at all times, like so many of his Germany colleagues)

Germany: Outright Winners 3/1 & Group B Winners 6/5

Germany, under the stewardship of Joachim Low booked their place Euro 2012 with maximum points in qualifying (10 wins out of 10). The bookies make them second favourites to succeed in Poland and Ukraine, captained by Champions League runner up Phillip Lahm Germany are widely available at 3/1. Since qualifying results have been mixed, a 3-0 victory in Hamburg against fellow Group B nation the Netherlands was followed up with back-to-back defeats to the French (1-2) and Swiss 3-5) they did however beat Israel courtesy of Mario Gomez and Bayern Leverkusen’s 21 year old marksman Andre Schurrle in their most recent outing meaning they come into the tournament on the back of a victory. Low’s team will be built around his strong defence Manuel Neuer will play in goal with Jerome Boateng & Phillip Lahm the full backs with Hummels & Badstuber the centre backs. The defence will be protected by formidable midfielder Bastian Schweinsteiger who will also allow the likes of Ozil, Gotze and Kroos to support the aforementioned Gomez. Germany can also call on the evergreen Miroslav Klose who always seems to come to life in the major tournaments. A mere 7 of Low’s likely starters line up together on a regular basis for Champions League and Bundesliga runners up Bayern Munich which gives them a great understanding that is so often missing with national sides. With a group of such high quality players & that understanding it could prove a little too much for the other sides in the group & Germany always perform in the finals of tournaments & backing them at odds against to win the group looks safe even though it is highly competitive.

(Arjen Robben is a joy to watch & will be one of many attacking threats for Holland)

Holland: Outright Winners 7/1 & Group B Winners 2/1

World Cup 2010 runners up Holland are best priced 7/1 (Coral) to triumph this summer. The Dutch, guided by 60-year-old Bert van Marwijk, won 9 out of 10 qualifying games, only losing at the hands of Sweden in a 3-2 thriller in Solna. The offensive side of the Netherlands squad oozes class, Robben, Van Persie, Huntelaar et al will pose a threat to Europe’s top defences; 37 goals in qualifying suggest they know how to find the back of the net. They do however look vulnerable at the back with first choice left back Erik Pieters misses the tournament altogether & highly regarded Gregory van der Wiel, who wowed spectators in the World Cup two years ago, has not been performing at that level in recent months. Centre back pairing John Heitinga and Joris Mathijsen don’t instil us with confidence, Everton’s Heitinga is prone to a mistake or two (as was shown in the recently friendly defeat against Bulgaria), Mathijsen also took a knock in that game and will go into the tournament as a fitness doubt. Playing against pace is a slight worry for the Netherlands, not the weak link you want against the other teams in this group. A positive for the Oranje is that they are no strangers of qualifying from tough groups, 4 years ago they overcame Italy, France and Romania to top Euro 2008's 'Group of Death'.

(Apparently there's 11 players in the Portugal team & we thought there was only one.....)

Portugal: Outright Winners 20/1 & Group B Winners 9/2

The third nation in the group is Portugal who were able to paly with a much greater sense of freedom once Carlos Queiroz was replaced by Paulo Bento as manager. It wasn’t all plain sailing though, defeat against opponents here Denmark meant they needed to qualify via the play-offs to book a place at Euro 2012. Portugal will be missing Danny and Carlos Martins through injury and the likes of Bosingwa and Carvalho have retired from international football. They do still however have a good starting defensive line up, the only worry should be any further injuries or suspensions, Joao Pereira will start at right back & should anything happen to him Bento’s options are limited. Portugal's Achilles heel is a lack of a quality centre forward as Postiga often doesn’t perform well often enough & although Hugo Almeida has shown glimpses of brilliance, which has led to tentative interest from some of Europe’s top sides, the youngster is inexperienced and doesn’t have the nous to lead the line alone. Portugal may be able to get away with not having a world-class centre forward due to one man, Cristiano Ronaldo. Ronaldo’s ability is known the world over and he can carry any team over the line, there is a lot of weight on his shoulders but he wouldn’t have it any other way, expect big things from the Real Madrid man. Ronaldo to be the top Portuguese scorer at the tournament is best priced at 15/8, it’s hard to look past him – he’ll certainly be taking free kicks and penalties which can only aid in his chances of outscoring his compatriots. Postiga is the second favourite, his return of 5 goals in qualifying and 9 goals for club side Real Zaragoza don’t suggest he’s a real threat to the prolific Real Madrid man.

(Holding midfielder William Kvist will be key to Denmark's play)

Denmark: Outright Winners 100/1 & Group B Winners18/1

The final side in Group B are the 1992 Champions Denmark, finishing above Portugal in qualifying suggest they won’t be at Euro 2012 just to make up the numbers although expectations are relatively low and the Danes can therefore play without too much pressure. Morten Olsen will try to frustrate Germany, the Netherlands and Portugal and catch them on the break. It’s unlikely that the Danes will cause the other sides too much of a threat going forwards and therefore they’ll know that they need to keep it as tight as possible at the back. Conceding just 6 goals in qualifying shows they can operate a tight defence & Nicklas Bendtner does a better job for his national side (18 goals in 48 games) than in the Premier League. Although they might exit at the group stages we don’t think they’ll get embarrassed by their opponents. An interesting market is team to concede fewest in the tournament & Denmark are best priced at 22/1, a potentially shrewd gamble if they exit at the first stage having only conceded 1 or 2 goals.

Selections:

Germany to win Group B at 6/5 (William Hill)

Cristiano Ronaldo top Portuguese Scorer at 15/8 (SportingBet and BetVictor)

Denmark to concede fewest goals at Euro 2012 at 22/1 (Ladbrokes and Paddy Power)