Solid Seagulls can heap more misery on Langusihing Lions

We're avoiding the Premier League this weekend with value seemingly a little thin on the ground from the prices we can see although there are various money back offers on Sunday's derby games fro those wanting a punt so keep your eyes & ear open for them. We're instead looking to get a double up in the Championship where the season is already into it's 5th round of games.

The NFL season starts next week too & we should have a preview (maybe split in two parts for the AFC & NFC) up early in the week - it's a great competition to bet on with an edge to be found on plenty of markets & a great sport with a real cerebral side to add to the physicality. Be sure to check back for bets right through the season to add to the football bets already underway.

Brighton vs Millwall

In our first game we see Brighton host Millwall in a game that looks like it could be a good opportunity for the home side to make it three league wins in a row as their silky style of football could undo their less cultured opponents.

(Leonardo Ulloa is on fire up front for Brighton & could strike again here)

Brighton started off their season a little sluggishly with defeats away at Leeds & then more disappointingly at home to Derby but they scored in both games through their star Argentinian striker Leonardo Ulloa & they've since beaten Birmingham & Burnley to get their campaign rolling. After last season's histrionics at the end with their acrimonious split with manager Gus Poyet, plus their playoff loss to chief rivals Crystal Palace, it was understandable that they may have suffered a slight hangover (they also lost to Newport in the League Cup) but they now seem to got going under new coach Oscar Garcia. It's fortunate for the Seagulls that Ulloa is playing so well & scoring so frequently because due to a smallish selection of players & injuries he looks likely to be their only fit out & out striker here as Ashley Barnes looks doubtful for selection.

Brighton play some nice football right throughout their side with plenty of Latin influence meaning they pass the ball well, certainly amongst the best in the Championship, & build from the back - usually they have the fullbacks Inigo Calderon & Bruno as key cogs in the plan but Bruno's out with a hamstring injury meaning it won't be quite so straightforward. We like the permanent signing of Matthew Upson in central defence & he's added a real solidity at the back in his time at the club plus Tomasz Kusczak has a great deal of quality in goal & is proving his worth after spending too much time as a back up in Manchester. They've a bit of quality in midfield, both in the centre & out wide & Kemy Augustien looks like a potentially great signing from Swansea - they should be able to get service into Ulloa who's good on the ground & in the air.

(Shaun Derry on loan - as far as Millwall's resources stretch...)

Millwall have unfortunately started this season, much as they finished the last, in dire form meaning they are now on a streak of 7 losses & 2 draws in 9 games & they've only scored 3 goals over the period. That lack of forward threat doesn't look likely to change with Steve Morison out with a hernia op & they've been failing to fire ever since Chris Wood finished his loan spell after Christmas. They always have a bit of fight in them but the quality looks to be lacking & with no money to go around they've not been able to make significant improvements in the off-season, Shaun Derry's on loan from QPR but he's 35 & has always relied on work rate rather than class to succeed. This looks to be a long season for the Lions & we don't see any outcome other than relegation, they could be in a whole heap of trouble even by the end of September.

Brighton only lost 3 times at home in the league in 2012-13 & with Millwall failing to score in 3 of their first 4 games this year they'll feel confident that they can keep the visitors at bay whilst netting at the other end, only SkyBet go as big as 4/5 for the Brighton win & that should be taken.

Doncaster Rovers vs Bournemouth

This selection seems a rather simple one but we can't understand why BetVictor have gone a standout Evens about there being over 2.5 goals in the Doncaster vs Bournemouth game in the Championship.

(Lewis Grabban is finding the environs of the Championship to his liking)

Bournemouth have tended to be fairly open so far & seem to need to learn to defend at a higher level after conceding 5 to Watford then 6 to Huddersfield so far on their travels & Doncaster have scored in all 3 of their games so far including twice away to fancied Wigan & there were 4 goals in their League Cup game here with Leeds. There was only the one goal here when they met last season with Bournemouth taking the win but their other game saw the over 2.5 land & both teams have strikers who are in the goals with Lewis Grabban with 4 for Bournemouth & Doncaster's new signing Theo Robinson bagging in consecutive games against Blackburn & Wigan. We thought the price would be around the 4/6 mark so think this looks a great value bet & it's unlikely you'll see these sort of odds too often for a game that seems to promise goals.

Selections:
Brighton to beat Millwall at 4/5 (SkyBet)
Doncaster vs Bournemouth Over 2.5 goals at Evens (Bet365 & BetVictor)

Watford's Hornets possess more sting than Brentford's Bees

Last week we set out our fancies for Championship success over the course of the season & for Twitter followers selected Peterborough as our bet of the weekend (successful at 11/10) but this week we're back with our first proper blog of the season & we've trawled the games & the stats to bring you some value tips.

Watford vs Bournemouth

We reckon that this is the game to watch this weekend with last season's highest scorers in the Championship, Watford, playing host to last year's top goal-getters from League One as Eddie Howe's Bournemouth roll into town.

(Watford's Almen Abdi shows off his smooth technique)

The two teams are some of the more interesting clubs around, both on & off the pitch, with Watford's strong ties to Italy & there being talk of potentially very substantial sums of money around Bournemouth who are part-owned by (amusingly named) Russian businessman Max Denim. Both sides are committed to playing attractive football & that comes from the coaches with Gianfranco Zola being one of the finest players to grace English football in the past 20 years & Eddie Howe one of the brightest young managerial talents around whose reputation was seemingly not harmed by his sacking from Burnley. That attacking philosophy is borne out not just by the fact that both teams were top scorers in their leagues but also because they happened to ship a few goals too with Watford's games containing joint-most overall last year & Bournemouth's 2nd most in League One.

Both teams have started out with 100% records with wins on the first league game of the season & then midweek victories in the first round of the League Cup so will be coming into this game with a little bit of a bounce in their step. That however may not be a good thing for Bournemouth as they are running into one of the Championship's top teams here who only missed out on automatic promotion by a couple of points last year & appear to have a top striker in Troy Deeney even if they couldn't persuade their top man from last year Matej Vydra to stay. The Hornets don't have to just rely on Deeney for firepower though with the diminutive Fernando Forestieri chipping in with a few & the excellent Almen Abdi ready to score as well as creat goals from midfield.

Bournemouth have tried to improve their options in defence with the signings of Ian Harte & Elliott Ward but more than that needs to be done if they aren't to concede with regularity & at the moment it remains to be seen whether their attack at the other end will be able to compensate although Lewis Grabban had a dream start bagging both goals in their 2-1 win against Charlton. We've no worries that Bournemouth will stay up this year as their home form seems likely to be strong but it's on the road that we worry & Watford should be slightly shorter than 8/11 to win this one - the odds of 4/5 for over 2.5 goals was tempting too but we'll stay with the home win.

Brentford vs Sheffield United

The other game we like the look of from a betting point of view is between last season's 3rd & 5th place League One sides, Uwe Rosler's Brentford & start-up manager David Weir's Sheffield United as the two well fancied teams battle it out for early season supremacy.

(Sheffield United will do well to hold on to 6"4 youngster Harry Maguire for another year)

Brentford have gone about increasing their squad size in the summer with loans & permanent signings, with Will Grigg probably the standout buy after the 22 year old scored 19 times in the league for Walsall last term. The Blades have been more cautious in the transfer market in terms of volume but have a big squad already & they'll be desperate for new signings Febian Brandy & Lyle Taylor to fire in the goals they need to add to their defensive solidity that Weir will look to maintain.

Both teams lost a joint league-low 9 games last season but came up with too many draws to claim an automatic promotion place & instead failed in the playoffs. With Sheffield United surely coming to first ensure they don't lose this could be a tense little encounter & that means the draw becomes a big player in the market & odds of 12/5 are very fair indeed. We think Sheffield United will be ultra conscious of the threat Clayton Donaldson provides the Bees & will attempt to defend in numbers to counter that & as they are so comfortable on the back foot a small play of No Goalscorer at 17/2 with BetVictor is advised also.

Selections:
Watford to beat Bournemouth at 8/11 (Various)
Brentford to draw with Sheffield United at 12/5 (Bet365 & SkyBet)
No Goalscorer - Brentford vs Sheffield United at 17/2 (BetVictor)

Holloway's Productive Palace to see off McCarthy's Iffy Ipswich

Ahhh, a lovely lot of football fixtures in midweek & we've got two selections for you coming from the Championship & League One plus a little rant about a certain recent managerial appointment.....

Crystal Palace vs Ipswich Town

This fixture is an interesting one as both teams have new managers with this being Ian Holloway's first in charge at Palace after joining from Blackpool, his side are in a much healthier position, sitting 3rd in the table, than rivals Ipswich who are still bottom after winning at Birmingham on Saturday.

(Glenn Murray's goalscoring exploits have been a revelation at Palace this season)

We have repeatedly opposed Ipswich for the past season or so believing that they had a poor manager & a poor squad of players........ & we don't think a lot has changed with the appointment of Mick McCarthy as manager. McCarthy admittedly has done a decent job with teams in the Championship but seems to lack any appreciation of the quality it takes to compete at a higher level & has twice been sacked when steering teams to humiliating points totals in the Premier League (Sunderland in 05-06 & Wolves last year). For people to say it was a mistake to sack Mick last season seems awfully misguided - yes they were dreadful after he went but they also were beforehand & he was responsible for the assembling of the team including paying actual money for Jamie O'Hara. Mick's got some task on his hands here & although he managed a win in his first game back it should be noted that Birmingham can be just about the worst team in pro football on their day & had a stinker on Saturday, yet Ipswich were poor too & just edged the 1-0 win. Ipswich just don't have the players needed to get them goals with on-loan striker DJ Campbell their top scorer with 3 & they've bagged a meagre 11 goals in 14 league games so far.

Palace have been relatively free-scoring & with Holloway certain to impose his attacking philosophy on the side we could see things light up at Selhurst Park for the rest of the year especially with the young attacking talent that is Wilfried Zaha at the club. Palace are unbeaten in 11 after losing their first 4 games (one in League Cup) of the season & posted an impressive pressing display against Blackburn on Saturday as they came up with a 2-0 win against Blackburn. Top scorer Glenn Murray scored both goals against Rovers to take his total to 10 from 11 appearances & if he's on form here he'll be hard to stop. Odds of Evens for Palace to win, who are at home, sit 3rd & are playing bottom placed Ipswich look too big to resist so get on!

Bournemouth vs Shrewsbury Town

Down in League One, Bournemouth entertain Shrewsbury Town at Dean Court. Both sides have struggled so far this season & sit in lowly positions of 16th & 20th respectively.

(Smiles all round at Bournemouth after the impressive young manager's return)

Bournemouth sacked manager Paul Groves early in October & brought back Eddie Howe, he left the Cherries nearly two years ago to take up the reins at Championship Burnley & has cited personal reasons for his return. He has made an immediate impact with Bournemouth picking up three wins & a draw in his four matches in charge, to illustrate how impressive this is this they had previously lost 4 in a row & had only won once in the league all season. The most impressive victory was over current league leaders (injury hit) Tranmere Rovers (3-1) & they are scoring goals for fun with 12 in these matches. Goals are coming all over the pitch with midfielder Marc Pugh scoring three & Irishman Harry Arter & striker Lewis Grabban grabbing a couple each.

Shrewsbury have failed to win on the road this season & have a record of three draws & four defeats in their seven away league matches. They have lost their last two in a row against Doncaster Rovers & Portsmouth & have conceded on average 1.57 goals per game. They are currently on a run of only one victory in their last nine, a fortunate 1-0 win over a Walsall side who dominated them & with one point in their last three so confidence is short in the Shrews' ranks. Bournemouth are on a crest of a wave since the popular Eddie Howe returned to the dugout & they should be too strong for a poor Shrewsbury side at a price of 4/6.

Selections:
Crystal Palace to beat Ipswich Town at Evens (Various)
Bournemouth to beat Shrewsbury Town at 4/6 (General)