Solid Seagulls can heap more misery on Langusihing Lions

We're avoiding the Premier League this weekend with value seemingly a little thin on the ground from the prices we can see although there are various money back offers on Sunday's derby games fro those wanting a punt so keep your eyes & ear open for them. We're instead looking to get a double up in the Championship where the season is already into it's 5th round of games.

The NFL season starts next week too & we should have a preview (maybe split in two parts for the AFC & NFC) up early in the week - it's a great competition to bet on with an edge to be found on plenty of markets & a great sport with a real cerebral side to add to the physicality. Be sure to check back for bets right through the season to add to the football bets already underway.

Brighton vs Millwall

In our first game we see Brighton host Millwall in a game that looks like it could be a good opportunity for the home side to make it three league wins in a row as their silky style of football could undo their less cultured opponents.

(Leonardo Ulloa is on fire up front for Brighton & could strike again here)

Brighton started off their season a little sluggishly with defeats away at Leeds & then more disappointingly at home to Derby but they scored in both games through their star Argentinian striker Leonardo Ulloa & they've since beaten Birmingham & Burnley to get their campaign rolling. After last season's histrionics at the end with their acrimonious split with manager Gus Poyet, plus their playoff loss to chief rivals Crystal Palace, it was understandable that they may have suffered a slight hangover (they also lost to Newport in the League Cup) but they now seem to got going under new coach Oscar Garcia. It's fortunate for the Seagulls that Ulloa is playing so well & scoring so frequently because due to a smallish selection of players & injuries he looks likely to be their only fit out & out striker here as Ashley Barnes looks doubtful for selection.

Brighton play some nice football right throughout their side with plenty of Latin influence meaning they pass the ball well, certainly amongst the best in the Championship, & build from the back - usually they have the fullbacks Inigo Calderon & Bruno as key cogs in the plan but Bruno's out with a hamstring injury meaning it won't be quite so straightforward. We like the permanent signing of Matthew Upson in central defence & he's added a real solidity at the back in his time at the club plus Tomasz Kusczak has a great deal of quality in goal & is proving his worth after spending too much time as a back up in Manchester. They've a bit of quality in midfield, both in the centre & out wide & Kemy Augustien looks like a potentially great signing from Swansea - they should be able to get service into Ulloa who's good on the ground & in the air.

(Shaun Derry on loan - as far as Millwall's resources stretch...)

Millwall have unfortunately started this season, much as they finished the last, in dire form meaning they are now on a streak of 7 losses & 2 draws in 9 games & they've only scored 3 goals over the period. That lack of forward threat doesn't look likely to change with Steve Morison out with a hernia op & they've been failing to fire ever since Chris Wood finished his loan spell after Christmas. They always have a bit of fight in them but the quality looks to be lacking & with no money to go around they've not been able to make significant improvements in the off-season, Shaun Derry's on loan from QPR but he's 35 & has always relied on work rate rather than class to succeed. This looks to be a long season for the Lions & we don't see any outcome other than relegation, they could be in a whole heap of trouble even by the end of September.

Brighton only lost 3 times at home in the league in 2012-13 & with Millwall failing to score in 3 of their first 4 games this year they'll feel confident that they can keep the visitors at bay whilst netting at the other end, only SkyBet go as big as 4/5 for the Brighton win & that should be taken.

Doncaster Rovers vs Bournemouth

This selection seems a rather simple one but we can't understand why BetVictor have gone a standout Evens about there being over 2.5 goals in the Doncaster vs Bournemouth game in the Championship.

(Lewis Grabban is finding the environs of the Championship to his liking)

Bournemouth have tended to be fairly open so far & seem to need to learn to defend at a higher level after conceding 5 to Watford then 6 to Huddersfield so far on their travels & Doncaster have scored in all 3 of their games so far including twice away to fancied Wigan & there were 4 goals in their League Cup game here with Leeds. There was only the one goal here when they met last season with Bournemouth taking the win but their other game saw the over 2.5 land & both teams have strikers who are in the goals with Lewis Grabban with 4 for Bournemouth & Doncaster's new signing Theo Robinson bagging in consecutive games against Blackburn & Wigan. We thought the price would be around the 4/6 mark so think this looks a great value bet & it's unlikely you'll see these sort of odds too often for a game that seems to promise goals.

Selections:
Brighton to beat Millwall at 4/5 (SkyBet)
Doncaster vs Bournemouth Over 2.5 goals at Evens (Bet365 & BetVictor)

Championship Antepost Preview 2013-14 - Can't see the Woods for the Forest

It’s hard to believe that it will have only been 69 days since Crystal Palace were victorious in the Championship playoff final when the 2013/14 season gets underway on Saturday. It certainly won’t be long before the same old clichés of "anyone can beat anyone" and "it's the hardest league to get out of" are used again & to be fair it's possible to stake a claim for a dozen sides this coming season but having considered the likely promotion contenders we’ve got two selections... at the prices we think Nottingham Forest at 11/1 (Sky Bet) to win the league and Brighton at 11/2 (BetVictor) to earn promotion represent good value.

(Defender Eric Lichaj appeared in nearly half of Aston Villa's Premier League games last year & looks a solid addition to the Forest squad)

Billy Davies guided Forest into 8^th place last season. Davies took over as Forest manager for the second time with just 15 games of the season remaining, winning 7 of those 15 (46%). A full pre-season working with the players and the ability to sign his own players will certainly help the Forest cause. Lewis McGugan and David McGoldrick have departed however Jamie Mackie, Eric Lichaj, Gonzalo Jara, Jack Hobbs, Dorus De Vries, Djamel Abdoun and Jamie Paterson have all joined the club meaning more strength in depth across the pitch & they certainly look to have options at every position which is key in the grueling 46 league game season.

The ability to pick up points away from home is key in this division – it’s no surprise that the three sides that won the most away games in 12/13 filled the top three places in the table. Not only do Forest need to pick up points away from home but they also  need to turn draws into wins if they are to challenge at the top end of the Championship this season. In 12/13 they drew on 16 occasions, had three of these draws been victories they'd have finished above the eventually promoted side Crystal Palace, hopefully the signings of Mackie et al can improve their fortunes. If they can continue the upward curve that Billy Davies sent them on at the end of last season then Nottingham Forest have every chance of challenging for the top prize.

 

 (New Brighton boss Oscar Garcia will be hoping for no repeats of last year's 'dirty protests' in the dressing room)

We see no reason why the departure of Gus Poyet will destabilise Brighton who impressed many last season when finishing 4^th. The managerial saga was finally concluded in June when former Barca youth coach Oscar Garcia was announced as boss & clearly he's a top pedigree that should fit right in with Brighton's smooth passing style.

Like Forest if Brighton can turn draws into wins they can propel themselves even higher in the league, they accumulated a whopping 18 draws last season & they’ll be hoping that Garcia’s attacking style of play aids them in collecting maximum points more often. Just like Forest they finished last season strongly – 'winning' the second half of the season (claiming 41 points from 23 games).

There have been minimal tweaks in the playing personnel with the permanent signing of the experienced Matthew Upson a boost for the club. Wayne Bridge however will be plying his trade for promotion rivals Reading in 2013/14. We’re in no doubt that Garcia will add to his playing squad before the transfer deadline closes & if they can replicate their performances of last year they should put themselves in the mix once again & claim at least a shot in the playoffs & at a best price of 11/2 (BetVictor) for promotion we think that’s good value.

In the handicap market we think that Ipswich, under Mick McCarthy and Blackburn Rovers will improve on last season; however they’ll probably fall just short with +14 and +12 points respectively. Our selection in this market is Middlesbrough. At 25/1 with a +16 handicap we believe Tony Mowbray’s men can surprise a few and challenge for a top 8 position, giving them every chance in the handicap market. An improvement is required on their travels in they are to compete in the top half, having won 13 of their home games (same amount as promoted Hull) its obvious that the return of 17 points away from the Riverside needs to be bettered in 13/14. Boro finished just 9 points off the playoffs last term – quite remarkable given the fact that they amassed fewer points than any other side in the second half of the season, a summer to shake out the negative thoughts that must've crept in towards the end of the year will have done them the world of good.

(Jordan Rhodes is this division's most proven goalscorer & a worthy favourite for the golden boot)

It's hardly a selection out of the blue given that the Oldham born striker is the favourite but the £8 million hitman Jordan Rhodes bagged 27 goals in 43 appearances at this level last season and a similar return this year should see him triumphant with the only worry being that a Premier League club or maybe Celtic... could come in for him in either transfer window. Rhodes can be backed at 8/1 with BetVictor.

We also quite like a speculative 80/1 (Betfred) shot. Michael Chopra has moved from Ipswich to Blackpool in the close season and clearly knows where the net is. His off the field problems have been well documented and a move to Blackpool might not exactly change his ways however there's no doubt that at this level he scores goals & Blackpool have an attacking philosophy (often to the detriment of their woeful defence) that will help Chopra’s cause. His recent returns haven’t been that impressive but it’s likely that he’ll start far more games for Paul Ince's Tangerines and if he gets the service we can see the goals coming. At an average a goal every 3 appearances (including sub appearances) throughout his career it's feasible Chopra could get 16+ goals for the Bloomfield Road outfit & that should give him a better chance of sneaking into the each way places than odds of 80/1 imply.

Selections:

Nottingham Forest to win the league at 11/1 (Skybet)

Brighton to gain promotion at 11/2 (BetVictor)

Middlesbrough to win handicap with +16 points at 25/1 (BetVictor)

Jordan Rhodes top scorer at 8/1 (BetVictor)

Michael Chopra (e/w) top scorer at 80/1 (Betfred)

Leeds lighting the way back to the big time?

We're back & so is the lower league action that we so missed last weekend with FA Cup games instead, we've actually only one game from below the Championship this time round but it's nice to have the betting options. Last weekend we had 3 out of 4 picks being successful (1 of 2 on the footy & 2 of 2 on the NFL) & we're remaining pretty red hot - if you're struggling for Christmas gifts for your friends & family you could always just let them know our web address! Follow us, if you aren't already, on Twitter by finding us there @LikeBuyingMoney or by clicking the Follow button above.

Derby County vs Leeds United

We were against Derby last weekend & they took a bit of a thumping against Leicester, we're not seeing too many reasons to side with them this weekend either as they host on a roll Leeds United who've won their last 3 in a row & look to have a real bounce in their step since their takeover was finalised.

(Luciano Becchio is becoming a true Leeds hero)

Derby have been solid at home with just one loss in 10 games but if you look more closely at the form you'd notice they've only won two games against opponents currently sitting in the top 10 all season & one of those was early on against Watford before the Hornets had settled down after a summer of change. The Rams have lost 3 of their last 5 & we've a suspicion that opposing teams have worked out how to stop them playing, which is by getting in & about their coveted young star Will Hughes & Leeds won't be afraid to bring out a physical aspect to the game.

After a run of 8 games without a win (although there were 4 draws & 3 losses by just a single goal in the sequence) Leeds have looked resolute & hugely tough in their past 3 games, coming up with wins against top sides in Crystal Palace & Leicester at home & then pouncing on fading Huddersfield away last week. Leeds' Luciano Becchio continues to be dependable up front & he's hit the back of the net in their last 3 games whilst Michael Tonge is playing some decent football again now back under Neil Warnock's management (previously at Sheffield United together). Odds of 21/10 with BetVictor & 2/1 at other firms are too big for a Leeds victory & it's well worth a wager this Saturday.

Coventry City vs Walsall

Down in League One, Coventry City host Walsall at the Ricoh Arena. Coventry are in 15th position but have picked up after a disastrous start whilst Walsall are in 19th & only one point behind.

(Mark Robins has got the Sky Blues back on track since his appointment)

After no victories in their first seven league games; Coventry relieved Andy Thorn of his duties & replaced him with Mark Robins. Robins faced defeat in his first match against Carlisle United but since then the record reads 6 wins, 3 draws & 3 defeats in 12 league games, with confidence now installed in the squad they have embarked on 4 wins in their last 6 in the league & 14 goals in the process. Attacking duo David McGoldrick & Carl Baker are in fine form with an impressive 15 league goals between them & seem to be enjoying their football in the process.

Walsall are really struggling at the moment & haven't recorded a victory in the league since September, that coming against Bournemouth, they came from behind last time out to draw with basement side Hartlepool United 1-1 to make it three consecutive draws which at least indicates a modicum of improvement. On the road all their victories came in the initial weeks of the season & they've found the net just 10 times in all away matches which has resulted in changes & leading scorer George Bowerman has been benched in recent weeks.

With the side brimming with confidence Coventry should have the beating of a struggling Walsall side & the best price of 37/40 with BetVictor is a value bet.

Treble time

(Taunton born (like us!) Ben Hamer can keep Charlton's goal safe against the Brighton attackers)

Finally, we know you punters love to have a treble so we'll add in an under 2.5 goals bet in the Charlton vs Brighton game in the Championship. 12 of Brighton's 20 games & 13 of Charlton's have had 2 or less goals in & Charlton now have a sequence of 5 games going under the total, in those 5 they've conceded just once & manager Chris Powell will be immensely proud of that seeing as he was a supremo defender himself.

Selections:
Leeds United to beat Derby County at 21/10 (BetVictor)
Coventry City to beat Walsall at 37/40 (BetVictor)
Under 2.5 goals in the Charlton Athletic vs Brighton & Hove Albion game at 4/5 (BetVictor)

A £10 treble at BetVictor would return £107.42 if all 3 selections are successful!

Tuesday Night Football - The Money is 'Rover' There

It was a successful betting weekend for us on the football front with all three selections doing the business for followers, we're hoping to keep the run going on Tuesday night as a full range of fixtures from the Camp Nou to Adams Park take place - again we've scoured the odds & come up with our best selections.

Tranmere Rovers vs Doncaster Rovers

League One leaders Tranmere host Doncaster at Prenton Park & will be looking to bounce back after a hefty 3-1 defeat after leading 1-0 at Bournemouth on Saturday; they have the league's best home record to fall back on & will provide a tough test for Dean Saunders' Doncaster side.

('Loan Wolf' Jake Cassidy has been in fine scoring form for Tranmere)

Tranmere's success this year has been based on their attacking threat & that is clearly shown with them having 3 of the top 4 scorers in League One in Jake Cassidy (8 goals), Jean-Louis Akpa Akro & Andy Robinson (both 7 goals). They are coming up against a Doncaster side that have been solid defensively with just 11 goals in total conceded & just 4 in their 6 away games so far, it may though be asking a little much for Doncaster to keep a clean sheet here against a side that have scored 7 more than any other side. Tranmere were suffering a little from injuries in that loss at Bournemouth, Akpa Akro is out with a broken foot & Andy Robinson was out too with fellow winger Joe Thompson also suffering from a niggly injury although he came off the bench on 89 minutes, he should be fully fit for this one & Robinson also has a chance of starting.

Doncaster made the signing of former Newcastle & Portsmouth full back Andy Griffin on Monday but it's uncertain whether he'll play in this one, we feel that as respectable a start as they've had they are running into Tranmere at just the wrong time as they look to get back on track after losing their unbeaten record, odds of 21/20 for the home win look tasty.

Leicester City vs Brighton & Hove Albion

Championship action comes from the King Power Stadium as current league leaders Leicester City entertain Brighton & Hove Albion. First place Leicester are only above Cardiff City on goal difference whilst Brighton have dropped down to 8th place after a tricky period.

(Anthony Knockaert has been doing the business for Leicester)

Leicester are have made an excellent start to the season with seven victories from their opening eleven league games. They actually lost three of their first five games but since then have embarked on a tremendous run of form with five victories & one draw. Trio David Nugent, Jamie Vardy & French midfielder Anthony Knockaert have all been in fine goalscoring form in their unbeaten run with nine of their twelve goals, at home their record reads five from five with ten goals scored & only two conceded & one cap & one goal wonder David Nugent bagging all five of his goals in front of the home faithful including a hat-trick against Hull City.

Brighton slumped again last weekend in a 1-0 home defeat to Middlesbrough which now means its four league games without victory for the Seagulls. In these matches they have only managed a solitary goal with an 80th minute equaliser from winger Will Buckley against a poor Ipswich Town side three games ago. Their form on the road is decent but they have only faced one side in the top half (Hull City) & this ended in a 1-0 defeat so this will be a stern test for them. Leicester are brimming with confidence & playing some cracking football at the King Power Stadium & at the odds of 10/11 we expect Brighton's slump to continue for another match at least.

Selections:
Tranmere Rovers to beat Doncaster Rovers at 21/20 (BetVictor & Stan James)
Leicester City to beat Brighton & Hove Albion at 10/11 (General)