Euro 2012 Final - Pirouhetting Pirlo can put Finishing Touches to Italian Campaign

Euro 2012 has been outstanding throughout & arguably the best international tournament of the last 20 or so years with plenty of teams being competitive & some star performances from individual players, the final is between reigning champions Spain & 1968 winners Italy. Both sides are worthy finalists & it's interesting to see how they'll matchup after having played each other in their Group C opener exactly 3 weeks ago.

(Andrea Pirlo (centre) can lead Italy to Euro glory)

In their group game it was Italy that at first looked outright more likely to score than Spain after Del Bosque decided to start with 6 in midfield & no striker, Spain looked a little toothless at times & it was Italy who made the breakthrough after the misfiring Balotelli was replaced by Di Natale who made a near instant impact with a goal. Spain bounced straight back that day with a typically incisive goal from the classy Cesc Fabregas & afterwards looked slightly the more likely team once Jesus Navas & Fernando Torres were on the pitch, fortunately for Italy, Torres was completely out of sorts in front of goal & missed or messed up several presentable chances.

A lack of goals & clear scoring opportunities is affecting Spain now they are without the first choice David Villa, Torres isn't half the player he once was & playing 6"5 striker Fernando Llorente appears to be anathema to boss Del Bosque, even though he's a very technically competent footballer. Down the right hand side of the Spain shape Xavi & David Silva haven't quite had the success you'd expect from such talented players although it looks like both will almost certainly retain their spots & are clearly capable of harming Italy if they play to their potential. Of course Spain don't need to be scoring by the bucketload to win as they have the meanest defence in football & the only goal they've conceded this tournament was that one from Di Natale, possession & retention of the ball helps & even when they lose it they have an outstanding keeper in Iker Cassilas who is protected by Ramos & Barcelona's bargain of the century Gerard Pique (re-signed from Man Utd for a measly £5m!).

(Spain's Gerard Pique & Iker Cassillas are just about the best stopper/defender combination around)

Italy haven't been setting the tournament alight with plenty of goals themselves, they have been able to create chances but Cassano & Balotelli (up to the last game at least) haven't always been clinical & certainly against England especially the whole team seemed to lack composure in front of goal. That being said they looked outstanding against Germany & completely outclassed England, even though they couldn't score, & the momentum looks to be with them especially as Spain just had to play the full 120 minutes against Portugal, somewhat offsetting their extra rest day advantage. The hope for Italy, & worry for Spain, is that now Balotelli has got himself fired up that he won't be missing some of the chances he was earlier in the tournament, hopefully he'll try to play on the defender's shoulder & stretch the field a little for Italy as that will mean Andrea Pirlo can do his inimitable thing.

Pirlo has been this tournament's standout star & with Cristiano Ronaldo failing to sparkle in the semi final he's now odds on to pick up the Player of the Tournament prize (tipped at 80/1 here), his passing & overall control of the game has been instrumental to Italy's progression but his fellow midfielders have been excellent too. Daniele de Rossi has shown some great movement & work rate & filled in ably at the back in the first two games,Claudio Marchisio has been consistently good all through the tournament & since coming into the side for the knockout games Riccardo Montolivo has added an extra element of trickery & pinpoint passing to the attack. Although Antonio Cassano hasn't, understandably, been able to last out a full 90 minutes in any game so far his movement, touch & general attacking intent have been crucial & he always seems to be available for a pass from his midfielders.

Italy haven't been bad at all at the back either with only 3 goals conceded, & even though he wasn't always conventional at times against Germany, Gianluigi Buffon showed why he, along with opposite number Cassilas, is still a significant step up from any of the up & coming young keepers. We really like Giorgio Chiellini & he was versatile to move out to left back in the last game & provide real threat going forwards against Spain, that moved Balzaretti to right back but he looked just as comfortable there & has been improving throughout the tournament & could give Jordi Alba some real problems if & when Italy break on Spain.

(Antonio Cassano overpriced at 12/1 to score first?)

We mentioned that the full back positions looked to be maybe Spain's one area of weakness before the Portugal game but they countered that against Ronaldo & co by playing pretty much a containing game throughout & Arbeloa & Alba weren't left exposed against the Portuguese pace too often. Arbeloa is surely the worst player in the Spain starting eleven by some way & although we know he's good we haven't always been totally convinced by Alba here, of course they've still played fine (as one goal conceded shows) but they maybe don't quite match up to the rest of Spain's high standards.

In terms of form it might just be Italy that have the edge, they totally outclassed England & only some desperate defending & woodwork stopped them scoring & then they were blistering against Germany with Mario Balotelli coming to life with two good goals. Spain didn't have to be anywhere near their best to beat a shambolic France team & then huffed & puffed against Portugal & you'd say were outplayed in the first half, Italy were better in that opener two, certainly in the first half & that will give a lot of confidence to the betting underdogs.

The problem with beating Spain is simply that they are the ultimate 'hard to beat' team, they control possession & concede so few goals that the best most sides can hope for is a draw, we know all of this yet still find ourselves believing that Italy are the ones to burst Spain's bubble & we reckon they can do it inside 90 minutes at odds of 29/10. Italy have played overall just a bit better than Spain going forward even though they've scored two less, they've hit the woodwork a couple of times & 4 of Spain's goals came against dire Ireland. All the talk will be of Balotelli & that means that we think a bit of value can be found with Antonio Cassano to be first scorer at 12/1, it would be a fairytale story after Cassano's serious health problems but is thoroughly possible & with so much defensive focus on 'Super' Mario he may be the one to find the chances. If Italy are to win the game, even in extra time or penalties, you'd have to make Andrea Pirlo a big favourite to be Man of the Match & odds of 5/1 look fair, it would be a fitting end to an outstanding display of technique & effectiveness throughout the tournament from Italy's Architect.

Selections:
Italy to beat Spain in 90 minutes at 29/10 (BetVictor)
Antonio Cassano to score first at 12/1 (BetVictor & William Hill)
Andrea Pirlo to be Man of the Match at 5/1 (Various)

1st Euro 2012 Semi Final - Primed Portugal can Spank Spain

We'll get to see a real clash of styles on Wednesday night as Portugal's lightning quick, direct & attacking team come up against the last half a decade's dominant football force of the 'Barcelona style' of patient, possession football played by Spain. It should be a really fascinating game & it remains to be seen whether Spain's Iberian rivals are the ones to eventually topple them & stop them winning their third major tournament in a row.

(Portugal can gain some success against Spain starting building with their classy central defenders)

Neither side had tough quarter fnals, with Portugal outclassing the Czech Republic & eventually breaking through late on after numerous near misses earlier in the game. Spain meanwhile could hardly have had an easier game against France with the French seemingly having imploded again before the game & giving a listless display - it was disappointing as Spain don't quite looked to have hit their usual heights & a fully firing France should have given them at least something to think about.

For all their quality Spain really haven't created too many clear cut chances in their games but because they are defensively sound & control the ball so well they don't need to score many as it's difficult to see them conceding often. If you were to pinpoint a defensive weakness it would be Alvaro Arbeloa at right back though & that just happens to be the key position when trying to stop the unstoppable Cristiano Ronaldo - he has been quite brilliant in the last two games & will have plenty of happy thoughts lining up against Spanish players - after all he finds it pretty easy to score against them in his day job at Real Madrid. Ronaldo may be arrogant & seem selfish but you can tell that he really does inspire his team mates around him & there is an awful lot of quality throughout the Portugal team other than their traditional problem position at striker. Portugal have struggled at point ever since record scorer Pauleta retired in 2006, Hugo Almeida will likely play up front but his role will be to hold the ball up & bring others into play more than trying to score himself. If Spain do concentrate on trying to stop Ronaldo specifically (which they may not as they could simply stick to their ideals) they could allow quality passers Meireles & Moutinho to pick out some killer balls.

(Manchester City's golden boy David Silva hasn't fully impressed us this tournament)

Portugal have looked good defensively & the goals they've conceded aren't the kind of ones they should worry about doing so again with the way Spain play,  the two against Denmark were down to not being able to deal with Nicklas Bendtner & the goal against Germany was similar in not coping with Gomez's presence whilst Van der Vaart's goal for Holland was a stunning strike. Other than in the air Portugal have looked slightly weak with balls in behind as Bruno Alves has looked sluggish & the keeper Patricio while competent is certainly the weakest starting keeper left in the competition by a very long way.

We all know Spain's strengths, they play the ultimate team game as they don't rely on any one position or player & don't seem to need everyone to be on their game to be able to pull off the results but we weren't impressed with them against the Italians in the first game or going forwards against Croatia in the last group game. France were so bad it was embarrassing & Vicente del Bosque's men will need to step up to justify their current odds on price to win in 90 minutes especially as his sdie have had two less rest days than Portugal. We prefer the look of Portugal at decent odds & we think they can get off to a flying start with their explosive game, odds of 17/2 for Portugal to be winning at half time & full time are pretty generous & don't require a big outlay for a sizeable return. The Man of the Match market also offers a little value because if Portugal can win Ronaldo seems locked in for the prize & backing him at 6/1 is better than Portugal at 7/2 - he could even get it if the game ends up going to extra time so looks a real value bet.

Selections:
Portugal to beat Spain at half time & full time at 17/2 (BetVictor & 188Bet)
Cristiano Ronaldo to be Man of the Match at 6/1 (Various)

Euro 2012 Quarter Final Three - France & Spain to keep it tight

Saturday sees the third quarter final & it's probably just about the pick of the bunch with the world's number one team Spain taking on close neighbours France in a matchup of two of the best technical teams in the tournament. Ronaldo & Portugal did the business for us in the first quarter final but Germany lost concentration & couldn't win to nil against Greece - we're trying to find more success in this game & Italy v England on Sunday.

(Iniesta has been Spain's star man so far)

Neither France or Spain have played up to their form in the tournament up to this game with Italy looking more dangerous in Spain's opener & they also looked ponderous against Croatia, France huffed & puffed against England & then threw in an aberration of a performance against Sweden & ended up losing 2-0.

France just haven't looked to have enough of a cutting edge, Benzema has played well but has too often been facing away from goal in an attempt to bring his midfielders into play. Franck Ribery hasn't done enough for us especially with his considerable talent & France don't seem to be able to decide who should be their wide right player with Nasri, Menez & Ben Arfa starting there in the first three games respectively. Too often the French have had to rely on distance shooting, which is odd considering the intricacy they can play with, & that doesn't bode well against the excellent shot stopper that is Iker Casillas in Spain's goal.

Spain have hardly been sparkling going forward either, we can't give the Ireland game too much weight because Ireland were so bad, they had no point of attack against Italy & didn't create anywhere near enough against Croatia. Spain do look better when Iniesta gets on the ball with him looking to release it & then make runs behind the defence & he could do well against the French defence that will be missing the suspended Philippe Mexes at centre back.

(Franck Ribery has somewhat underperformed for France & needs to step up his game)

France haven't looked all that convincing in defence other than at right back where Debuchy has really announced himself as a smart prospect, their central defenders have looked a little one paced  indecisive at times & Gael Clichy coming in to replace Evra really hasn't helped at left back - Sweden seemed to have identified him as a weak link & attacked regularly down that side. Spain however have conceded the least goals in the tournament, keeping clean sheets in their last two & gaining their trademark 1-0 win last time out, with Casillas in goal they are tough to score against & they keep possession so well opposing teams get few chances against them.

We can see this being a really tight affair & there is some value to be had backing under 1.5 goals at 2/1 with Ladbrokes & Stan James as this could easily end up being settled by a single goal, we prefer to take Spain to win 1-0 though just as they did in the three knockout games leading up to final of the World Cup, the bet is available at 11/2. We don't feel that Spain have been at their best but feel that France mightn't be the right type of team to beat them at this stage although a semi final against Portugal could be a different story.......

Selection:
Spain to win 1-0 at 11/2 (BetVictor & Ladbrokes)

Euro 2012 Fixtures - Monday 18th June

We were hammered by Russia's dreadful loss on Saturday as many other punters appeared to be too but didn't let it get us down too badly & fired back with a quickfire double last night on Germany & over 2.5 goals in the Holland v Portugal game - we're back with more bets from the finely poised Group C on Monday night.

(Luka Modric will match up against the similarly technically gifted Spain midfielders)

7:45 pm - Spain vs Croatia

Group C's first game sees a strange situation where a 2-2 draw would guarantee that both Spain & croatia would qualify for the quarter final stage regardless of what Italy do against Ireland in the other game. Both sides are saying, of course, that they aren't going to play out the result & will be going for the win but some bookmakers seem very distrusting & have priced up 2-2 as short as 4/1! (Coral, William Hill & BetVictor)

Croatia & Spain both looked very good when playing Ireland although the way that Ireland have played doesn't say a lot, Spain went with an orthodox formation in their first game but looked much better when starting with a true forward in Fernando Torres last time. Torres bagged himself a couple of goals against Ireland & that should help settle him down after his horror show after coming on as a sub in the first game. We still aren't convinced that he's anywhere near the player he was 3 years ago & that does mean that unless Spain are creating chances at will they might struggle to score too many as they don't have quite the cutting edge of some of the other sides in the competition. Pique & Ramos are still trying to develop a partnership in central defence & they certainly miss Carlos Puyol, both full backs Alba & Arbeloa picked up bookings in the first game & that could mean a potential rest for them. If both wide defenders do start then Croatia will look to get at them, knowing they could be hesitant in challenges, & Darijo Srna was great against Italy regularly overlapping & getting down the right hand side.

Spain should be outright better in the centre of midfield although Croatia have their own master technician in Modric, if the game is played as competitively as both teams say it will then we will wee Croatia look to concede plenty of possession & hit on the break & they could have some success. Mario Mandzukic has eventually started to find some scoring form for his country & Nikica Jelavic's physical presence should unsettle some of the cultured Spanish players. We think the draw has a big chance of happening here & that 2-2 shouldn't be discounted, Sportingbet go a standout 7/1 but we think a small play on Croatia on the draw no bet market at 9/2 on the exchanges is the way to go. Spain looked like they could get caught at times by Italy & Croatia outplayed the same opponents in the second half last time which suggests they should be competitive, we don't want to take anything from either sides' game against Ireland.

(Italy's Claudio Marchisio could bag himself a goal against the porous Irish defence)

7:45 pm - Italy vs Republic of Ireland

In the other game Italy will be looking to stick a few goals past the already eliminated Ireland as they look to put themselves in a position to qualify, Ireland have been dreadful but the only change they're going to make for the final game is bringing back Kevin Doyle to the starting lineup, which can hardly be pushed as too much of a positive as he's been poor for club & country for a long time. Trapattoni must be very disappointed by his players, they aren't the greatest but their displays so far have been below the levels required & even dependable figures have let him down, including goalkeeper Shay Given who looks to be a fading force.

Italy look like they may drop the misfiring Balotelli, but seemingly not for his ineffective displays & instead because of a knee injury, Di Natale should now get his chance & he's speedy even at 34 & could embarrass the lumbering Irish defenders. Andrea Pirlo has been their outstanding player, as we flagged up pre-tournament, & he should be given plenty of opportunities to thread the ball through to Di Natale & Cassano. Claudio Marchisio has been getting forward at times & we reckon the 11/2 available for him to score at anytime could be a decent play, he's only one goal for Italy so far but scored ten goals for Juventus last season & they should go with a very attacking mentality here.

We were really impressed with Italy in their first game against Spain & they looked pretty good against Croatia in the first half too but then went negative in the second half & paid the price by conceding & only getting a draw. Cesare Prandelli really should have learnt his lesson for the rest of the tournament & he can start off by setting his team to go on an all out offensive against Ireland here, odds of 10/11 for Italy to win with a -1 goal handicap seem very big & we're going to back heavily, we can see a bigger margin than two goals opening up with Ireland having nothing but pride to play for.

Selections:
Croatia to beat Spain on the draw no bet market at 9/2 (Betfair) 
Italy to beat Ireland with -1 goal at 10/11 (SkyBet)
Claudio Marchisio to score at anytime at 11/2 (SkyBet)

Euro 2012 Fixtures - Thursday 14th June

Euro 2012 continues to be a cracking tournament with quality game after quality game & some of the better players are beginning to perform. Mario Gomez & Alan Dzagoev lead the goalscoring charts with three goals each & it will be interesting to see whether anyone can hunt down Gomez in particular as it looks like he could be playing several more games in the tournament. This Thursday we take a look at Group C games as Croatia look to build on their win over Ireland by taking on the impressive Italians & Spain take on Ireland who were so poor in their first game.

(Di Natale made an impressive goalscoring impact for Italy & will hope to have secured a starting berth)

5:00 pm - Italy vs Croatia

Croatia are a proactive team & showed they could take it to a team trying to defend when showing Ireland their attacking prowess & superiority with a convincing win, Ireland were poor though & Italy will offer up a much sterner test.

Italy were content to be reactive against Spain, allowing them to come on to them before breaking away with Andrea Pirlo regularly looking to play killer balls in behind the defence. One of Pirlo's exquisite passes was how they took the lead with the still quick Antonio Di Natale darting onto it & finishing with aplomb, he may have just got himself a starting spot as he offered a real menace when introduced as a substitute. Italy are also extremely comfortable when in possession & at times held onto the ball well against Spain, they'll certainly look to impose their will on the less technically gifted (than Spain) Croatians here. Marchisio & Motta will look to be more effective at getting at Croatia's key playmaker Luka Modric, than Whelan & Andrews were for Ireland & they are far superior players so will stand a better chance.

Croatia did look dangerous going forward & Mario Mandzukic took his goals very well, albeit against some rubbish Irish defending & goalkeeping, he's a dependable scorer for Wolfsburg but his brace the other day were only his 6th & 7th international goals in 30 appearances. Nikica Jelavic bagged Croatia's other goal against Ireland but rather surprisingly that was only his third goal for Croatia in 20 games, so between them Mandzukic & Jelavic do only have 10 goals in 50 appearances so we should maybe not get too carried away against the best defence in qualifying for the tournament. Vedran Corluka played at centre back for Croatia in the first game & they got away with it thanks to Trapattoni's sentimentality in continuing to play a thoroughly out of form & low in confidence Kevin Doyle but Italy will surely exploit a player as suspect as Corluka. The rest of the defence is very ordinary too with captain Darijo Srna starting at right back even though he more often plays at right midfield, the keeper Pletikos only made one appearance when on loan at Spurs in 2010 & Schildenfeld & Strinic are average at best. In midfield the Croats do have some real quality with Rakitic & Perisic being goal providers & scorers too, the Italian wing backs should pick them up though, with the Italian 3-5-2 looking suited to Croatia's setup.

Andrea Pirlo was excellent against Italy & we can barely believe Boylesports are going a huge 16/1 for him to be Man of the Match here, snap their hands off, sign up to them, get free bets on, do whatever, this is a magnificent price for a brilliant player who is regularly Italy's best - it is no coincidence that Juventus won the double as soon as he signed up last year. Italy look adaptable to any situation & the way they played against Spain shows that they are genuine contenders for this championship & they will be raring to go against Croatia, we see a win for Cesare Prandelli's men at odds of 13/10. Croatia's defensive weakness could cost them dear against Pirlo, Cassano & co.

(Iker Cassilas & his defenders shouldn't face too much pressure from the Irish attack)

7:45 pm - Spain vs Republic of Ireland

Everyone in the universe must by now have heard Spain played without a striker against Italy (+ have had their say about it) but they will surely have a point man against Ireland who looked so limited against Croatia.

We highlighted pre-tournament & before their last game how poor the Irish central midfielders are on the ball & unless Trapattoni switches out Whelan & Andrews they will do well to get over 30% possession here. You'd have thought Ireland would switch to one up front with maybe the big lad Darron Gibson coming in to add some more physicality to the midfield. It won't help too much as Spain will have at least 5 in midfield & they should play their tika-taka football to some effect, playing it in  around Ireland. Trapattoni will have been planning this game out for months & the philosophy will be 'bend don't break' for them, they;ll be happy to let Spain have the ball up to & around 25 yards out where they'll then try to get close & if they win possession Duff & McGeady (or McLean) will be the out ball. However Ireland play it does look tough for them to get anything, Robbie Keane has been playing in the MLS & it's difficult to step back up this higher level & odds of 8/11 for Spain to keep a clean sheet look a very good pick indeed.

Spain didn't always look great defensively against Italy but in Andrea Pirlo they came up against their Kryptonite with his sumptuous passes in behind, Ireland definitely don't have anyone with that ability & Pique & Ramos will be happy to deal with crosses into the box. Spain can be frustrating to watch if you have your money down as they so often don't pull the trigger when the chances arise & that limits appeal about them winning by a big margin. It will be interesting to see what lineup they go with, they certainly should win but we can't find any great value in the odds offered about them & will happily stick with the clean sheet bet. They'll be hoping for better from players such as David Silva & Sergio Busquets as they look to play themselves into the tournament before a key game against Croatia up next.

Selections:
Italy to beat Croatia at 13/10 (various)
Andrea Pirlo to be Man of the Match at 16/1 (Boylesports)
Spain to keep a clean sheet at 8/11 (Totesport)

Euro 2012 Fixtures - Sun 10th June

Although the first games from the 'Group of Death' have just been seen, arguably the biggest game from the first set of fixtures comes in Group C on Sunday with World Cup winners & defending champions Spain taking on Italy. Later on everybody's favourite underdogs Ireland trying to get off to a good start against the attack minded Croatia, the quality should remain high & we're looking for more winners .

(Gerard Pique & Sergio Ramos are a new centre back pairing for Spain - can the fierce rivals co-exist?)

5:00 pm - Spain v Italy

Pre-tournament favourites Spain are pretty short in the market to win their first game against Italy here at a general price of 4/5, we remember their opener in the World Cup where they lost to Switzerland though. Withought David Villa at point Spain may struggle to get goals from the relatively few chances their games tend to see due to the slow build up possession football played & the opposition regularly defending in numbers.

Italy have traditionally been the masters of defending & conceded just two goals in qualifying, they are going to be missing Andrea Barzagli at the back though & that'll mean Daniele De Rossi dropping into the competition's only back three (rather than four) with Chiellini & Bonucci. De Rossi may actually be pretty suited to defending against the Spanish style of playing as they won't throw balls into the box & he's very clever on his feet, he will be a miss in the centre of midfield though where he plays such a good ball winning role that lets Andrea Pirlo shine, he's their star & at 80/1 very overpriced for Player of the Tournament. It seems that some bookmakers have forgotten he's on penalties & freekicks for the Azzurri & seems overpriced at a massive 22/1 to score first. Set pieces could well be the way that Italy look to attack Spain as they are hugely pragmatic & will be happy to adapt from the attractive attacking style that saw them qualify. The big drawback for Italy has been in the buildup to the tournament with another match-fixing scandal back in Italy & only one warm up game where they lost 3-0 to Russia, that scoreline doesn't quite represent the story of the game but it still doesn't inspire confidence. The manager Cesare Prandelli may use this tumultuous setting to foster an 'Us Against the World' mentality in the team & that could make them dangerous for anyone in the tournament & they undoubtedly have a lot of quality.

Spain are excellent & have been dominant in international football over the last 5 years but their players have so many games on their legs now they must be starting to slow down a little & it is telling that even though Lionel Messi was arguably better than ever this year that Barcelona, who form the national team's backbone, couldn't reach the same heights as in previous years. It looks like Torres will begin at point but we're less convinced than most that he's back to anything like his old self - breakaway goals in the dying seconds against sides on the all out attack do not make you world class! Carlos Puyol will be a huge miss at centre back & even though both players are class it remains to be seen whether a Pique & Ramos pairing is as effective, Jordi Alba will offer them something at left back though which was probably the only area the side have lacked in over the past few years.

As good as the Spanish are we just don't see any value in backing them, we could go with Italy at 4/1 but the better bet lies by taking the insurance of Italy in the draw no bet market at 11/4. This could be a low scoring game & that brings the draw much more into play so knowing that you'll get your money back if it does end in a draw but make a very tidy profit if Italy win makes this an appealing bet.

(Glenn Whelan provides our betting opportunity in the Ireland v Croatia game)

7:45pm - Republic of Ireland v Croatia

The group's two outsiders Ireland & Croatia will both surely feel that a win in this game could be key to their unlikely progression through to the knockout stages but will also be aware that a loss would be disastrous & that could mean some stifled play from both teams. Croatia are at their strongest up front but Ireland are pretty resolute in defence with Shay Given a great last line of defence, Ireland's big weakness is the centre of midfield where they lack quality & Croatia are pretty much 'rubbish' at the back. Ireland do lack midfielders who are good when on the ball but Glenn Whelan & Keith Andrews will always put in a shift when possession is lost & they'll need to with the classy Luka Modric playing for Croatia, he could well be in for some rough treatment here. If they can mark & kick Modric out of the game they'll starve the supply line to Everton's in form striker Nikica Jelavic & his likely partner Mario Mandzukic. Captain & hero Robbie Keane will lead the line for Ireland where he'll be joined by Kevin Doyle, we're perplexed as to how Doyle is keeping out Shane Long at the moment & we don't see him making the most of the chances that come his way.

We think this is a really tough match to call & we don't want to side with the Croatians at shortish odds but Ireland's central midfield really is poor & they could give possession away too often to create many chances, unfortunately the oddsmakers make a low scoring game an overwhelming favourite (under 2.5 goals is at 1/2) so there's no play to be made there. Lets go for something altogether more exotic & we'll pick Glenn Whelan to be the first player booked at a generous 12/1, he won't be doing too much other than tackling & we can just see the quick feet of Modric getting the better of him & some nice swipes coming his way in return.

Selections:
Italy to beat Spain on the draw no bet market at 11/4 (Betfred & BetVictor)
Andrea Pirlo to score first at 22/1 (BlueSquare, Stan James & 888Sport)
Glenn Whelan to be first player booked at 12/1 in Ireland v Croatia game (various)

Euro 2012 Group C - Reigning Spain to feel the Pain

Our European Championship preview is finding the best bets from every group & also some outright tournament bets. Here we take a look at Group C, containing tournament favourites Spain, 1968 winners Italy, tough & talented Croatia & finally Giovanni Trapattoni's Republic of Ireland.

(Xavi is the perfect exponent of the Spanish way of playing)

Spain: Outright Winners 11/4 & Group C Winners at 8/13

It's understandable to see Spain as favourites for Euro 2012, they are the world's number one ranked team & are the current holders of the competition & the World Cup too, Spain have quite simply dominated international football over the past five years with their brand of technical, possession football & look hard to beat. Spain were perfect through qualifying, winning all 8 of their games, knocking in 26 goals & only conceding 6, it wasn't a tough group (as most aren't) with the Czech Republic being a much reduced force & the 3 teams being the minnows of Scotland, Lithuania & Liechtenstein. It still takes a lot to keep up that level of performance over the whole period of qualifying especially when on the road & when already qualified & goes to show just how professional the Spanish are.

Spain start strong at the back with probably the world's best goalkeeper in Iker Casillas, he became Spain's most capped player of all time in late 2011 & bearing in mind he's only 31 it's conceivable he could end up playing over 200 games for his country. With vice-captain Carlos Puyol out of the tournament through injury it looks as though his regular club partner at Barcelona, Gerard Pique, will be joined in central defence by Real Madrid rival & all round red card collecting lunatic Sergio Ramos, who should move inside from right back. That should mean that ex-Liverpool player Alvaro Arbeloa gets to play at his natural position of right back & Jordi Alba will get to build on his relatively minimal international experience as he comes in at left back. It mustn't be forgotten that Spain won all of their World Cup knockout games 1-0 (including the final after extra time) & Casillas & his watertight defence were key to that success, they still look some outfit but it's never easy to have to make changes & they will miss Puyol's leadership.

Spain don't have too many problems in midfield, as evidenced by the fact that a player as talented as Cesc Fabregas can't pin down a starting spot, Iniesta, David Silva & the phenomenal Xavi provide the trademark metronomic passing that has become synonymous with the supposed 'right way' to play football over the last few years. Backing up the front three are the destructive & incredibly efficient Sergio Busquets & then Xabi Alonso, a player who barely seems to move at times yet gets an awful lot of the ball as he strives to set up attacking phase after attacking phase. Up front things get a little trickier for the Spanish with their record scorer David Villa out though injury, that means that they take Pedro (2 goals both in friendlies in 15 appearances), Fernando Torres (2 international goals since 2010), Fernando Llorente (7 goals in 20 but not since 2010) & Alvaro Negredo (5 goals in 8 but all in high scoring wins against weak opposition). It looks like Llorente has a chance of starting up front & he's some player, particularly shining on Athletic Bilbao's Europa League run where he tormented Man United's defence, although Spain's style might not totally suit the 6"5 big man who's great in the air too. It is worrying that they don't have any forwards currently in top form & if one doesn't get going those 1-0 results they were gaining in the World Cup could just turn to draws & cause them a frustrating time.

(Giorgio Chiellini is an enforcer at the back for Italy)

Italy: Outright Winners 16/1 & Group C Winners at 100/30

Italy are 16/1 shots for the tournament but looked in pretty good shape during qualifying, winning 7 & drawing 2, with their home game against Serbia abandoned & awarded to them 3-0, with just two goals conceded they had the tightest defence of any qualifying team & are likely to put that to good effect when coming up against Spain in their opening match. Buffon is still outstanding in goal at the age of 34 & is protected by hard case Giorgio Chiellini & Andrea Barzagli who seems to have got better with age & is playing his best football now after joining Juventus in 2011. If Italy play with a true four at the back then Chiellini could be shunted out to left back with Balzaretti, the one true left back, pretty inexperienced at the highest level considering he's 30 but whatever choices Cesare Prandelli makes with the defence are likely to be astute. Although Italy had a great qualifying defensively & have been renowned for it in the past, it has actually been their attractive technical play that has recently caught the attention with Andrea Pirlo being their main man & one of the best creators in the game. De Rossi & Marchisio are tough no-nonsense midfielders who can boss pretty much any opposition midfield but they are also great on the ball & by winning it & giving it to Pirlo they allow him to do the pretty things.

Italy don't tend to play with too much width, instead allowing Antonio Cassano to play in behind a couple of forward players & the Milan attacker does the business for the national team although he hasn't played all the time for club, that wasn't helped due to a serious health scare in October requiring heart surgery & he only made his first team comeback in April, he's said to be fully recovered now though. Antonio Di Natale is better than ever at the age of 34 & has scored 29, 28 & 29 goals over the past three Serie A seasons, who he gets partnered by up front is still up in the air but it might just be the unpredictable Balotelli if the City player can gain Cesare's trust. Clearly the loss of Guiseppe Rossi to yet another lengthy injury is a blow to the Italians & it remains to be seen whether they can get scoring again.

(Croatis captain Darijo Srna will be hoping to lead his team out of this tough group)

Croatia: Outright Winners 50/1 & Group C Winners at 15/2

Croatia are 50/1 outsiders for outright glory & 7/4 to qualify from the group & with Spain & Italy there it does look a tough ask but they have some genuinely top class players going forwards & a core team that have played together for years & they look to have their best side since manager Slaven Bilic was playing & they had Davor Suker up front. Eduardo never really cut it at Arsenal but he's got 22 goals for the national side & he's only likely to be fourth choice up front behind Bayern's Ivica Olic, Mario Mandzukic & in form big man Nikica Jelavic. Everton's Jelavic would instantly walk into the England starting eleven but he isn't guaranteed to get into the side here thanks to only 2 goals in 18 games for the Croats. Luka Modric is considered one of the Premier League's best & he'll create plenty from midfield with Darijo Srna & Niko Kranjcar in the wide positions getting the ball in the box. Ognjen Vukojevic could well have a big role to play in the side as the defensive midfielder & they may even elect to play with another in the games against Spain & Italy & add Dujmovic to the mix too. With a bit of a dodgy defence (Corluka's one of their better defenders!) they'll be keen to get off to a good start against Ireland & if they can avoid losing there they'll give the big two sides a rough ride & rely on some moments of inspiration from Modric.

(Richard Dunne will have plenty to do in defence as Ireland will be sitting deep in their games)

Ireland: Outright Winners 100/1 & Group C Winners at 18/1

The Republic of Ireland will be looking to put a wealth of experience to good use in this tournament as they go into it with 3 of their top 5 most capped players in Shay Given, Damien Duff & Robbie Keane, they have some quality players but with the astute Trapattoni in charge they'll primarily look to be solid first & then look to their stars for a bit of inspiration. Having only lost one game, to Russia, in qualifying they'll be taking a good feeling into the tournament plus will be desperate for a bit of success after missing out on finals so closely over the past few years. There isn't too much pace across the back four for Ireland but Richard Dunne can be inspirational at times in the centre of defence & will scare many cultured forward players with his  physical presence, it looks like Leicester's resurgent Sean St Ledger will join him at the back & although neither are top players they make a decent partnership. John O'Shea will start at one of the full back postions & will either be on the left with Stephen Kelly at right back or on the right with Stephen Ward at left back, either way O'Shea will likely be the only one of the four to get forwards with any regularity & his crossing ability shouldn't be underestimated.

Central midfield is not inspiring for the Irish with Keith Andrews & Glenn Whelan looking like getting the spots but they both work very hard & can pay the simple balls to the wingers they'll rely on to create their chances. Ireland seem to be one of the few countries left still producing true wingers & in Duff, McGeady & Sunderland's untested James McClean they have some exciting players that will create problems for defenders. We don't see Trapattoni giving McClean a starting role straight away, Duff is ultra dependable & McGeady has gone to Spartak Moscow & proven himself in a tough country & that experience will help him here. Keane is clearly their lead striker & it looks like he'll have his regular international partner Kevin Doyle with him, if so that will be a disappointment to Shane Long who performed better than him outright for most of the Premier League season. Just like Croatia they'll see their opening match as key & if they do gain the win over the Croats they'll be looking to contain both Italy & Spain & may be better drilled by their wily old coach than their Eastern European rivals. Getting out of the group isn't a forlorn hope for the Irish, although it is certainly a tough ask.

(Italy's cultured playmaker Andrea Pirlo is too big at 80/1 for Player of the Tournament)

There are plenty of people who will be saying that Spain are sure things for the whole tournament & if they're right then getting out of the group should be a formality but they lost to Switzerland in their first game at the World Cup & they have to face the Azzurri blue here in their opener & that won't be easy. If Italy can pull a out a win in that opener, it all starts to look a little tougher for Spain especially as Ireland & Croatia will be playing with banks of players behind the ball & without David Villa Spain might not have the cutting edge to make the most of the few chances they'll create, those World Cup one nils could easily turn to scoreless draws & a potential early exit. Of course the likelihood is that Spain go through but do we really want to take odds of 1/7 about that? Instead get on Betfair & take a lay of Spain to qualify from the group & lay them at 1.16 & shorter, successful betting is about identifying where the odds are incorrect & taking advantage, Spain are worthy favourites but not that worthy. Whoever does get through the group has a great chance of reaching the quarter finals with only France looking particularly worthy opponents from Group D, if Italy do get to the semis they'll be doing it on the back of displays from Andrea Pirlo & at 80/1 he is a fine bet for Player of the Tournament, he's a class act & with it likely being his final tournament he's a prime contender for the selectors to pick. The final bet here has to be for Group C to be the lowest scoring group at odds of 3/1 - the bookies seem to be overestimating the scoring ability of some of these teams, remember Spain are missing Villa & Italy are without Rossi, Ireland & Croatia may go for it in their opener but are certain to be horribly negative against the other two & there could be some real wars of attrition here. Group A is the short priced favourite for this market but Russia could stick a few in the back of the net & the Czech Republic could be open at the back plus Poland have some pundits' idea of an outright top scorer in Lewandowski so Group C is the bet.

Selections:
Lay Spain at odds of 1.16 (2/13) or shorter to qualify through the group
Andrea Pirlo to be Player of the Tournament at 80/1 (various)
Group C to be lowest scoring group at odds of 3/1 (various)