(Gerard Pique & Sergio Ramos are a new centre back pairing for Spain - can the fierce rivals co-exist?)
5:00 pm - Spain v Italy
Pre-tournament favourites Spain are pretty short in the market to win their first game against Italy here at a general price of 4/5, we remember their opener in the World Cup where they lost to Switzerland though. Withought David Villa at point Spain may struggle to get goals from the relatively few chances their games tend to see due to the slow build up possession football played & the opposition regularly defending in numbers.
Italy have traditionally been the masters of defending & conceded just two goals in qualifying, they are going to be missing Andrea Barzagli at the back though & that'll mean Daniele De Rossi dropping into the competition's only back three (rather than four) with Chiellini & Bonucci. De Rossi may actually be pretty suited to defending against the Spanish style of playing as they won't throw balls into the box & he's very clever on his feet, he will be a miss in the centre of midfield though where he plays such a good ball winning role that lets Andrea Pirlo shine, he's their star & at 80/1 very overpriced for Player of the Tournament. It seems that some bookmakers have forgotten he's on penalties & freekicks for the Azzurri & seems overpriced at a massive 22/1 to score first. Set pieces could well be the way that Italy look to attack Spain as they are hugely pragmatic & will be happy to adapt from the attractive attacking style that saw them qualify. The big drawback for Italy has been in the buildup to the tournament with another match-fixing scandal back in Italy & only one warm up game where they lost 3-0 to Russia, that scoreline doesn't quite represent the story of the game but it still doesn't inspire confidence. The manager Cesare Prandelli may use this tumultuous setting to foster an 'Us Against the World' mentality in the team & that could make them dangerous for anyone in the tournament & they undoubtedly have a lot of quality.
Spain are excellent & have been dominant in international football over the last 5 years but their players have so many games on their legs now they must be starting to slow down a little & it is telling that even though Lionel Messi was arguably better than ever this year that Barcelona, who form the national team's backbone, couldn't reach the same heights as in previous years. It looks like Torres will begin at point but we're less convinced than most that he's back to anything like his old self - breakaway goals in the dying seconds against sides on the all out attack do not make you world class! Carlos Puyol will be a huge miss at centre back & even though both players are class it remains to be seen whether a Pique & Ramos pairing is as effective, Jordi Alba will offer them something at left back though which was probably the only area the side have lacked in over the past few years.
As good as the Spanish are we just don't see any value in backing them, we could go with Italy at 4/1 but the better bet lies by taking the insurance of Italy in the draw no bet market at 11/4. This could be a low scoring game & that brings the draw much more into play so knowing that you'll get your money back if it does end in a draw but make a very tidy profit if Italy win makes this an appealing bet.
(Glenn Whelan provides our betting opportunity in the Ireland v Croatia game)
7:45pm - Republic of Ireland v Croatia
The group's two outsiders Ireland & Croatia will both surely feel that a win in this game could be key to their unlikely progression through to the knockout stages but will also be aware that a loss would be disastrous & that could mean some stifled play from both teams. Croatia are at their strongest up front but Ireland are pretty resolute in defence with Shay Given a great last line of defence, Ireland's big weakness is the centre of midfield where they lack quality & Croatia are pretty much 'rubbish' at the back. Ireland do lack midfielders who are good when on the ball but Glenn Whelan & Keith Andrews will always put in a shift when possession is lost & they'll need to with the classy Luka Modric playing for Croatia, he could well be in for some rough treatment here. If they can mark & kick Modric out of the game they'll starve the supply line to Everton's in form striker Nikica Jelavic & his likely partner Mario Mandzukic. Captain & hero Robbie Keane will lead the line for Ireland where he'll be joined by Kevin Doyle, we're perplexed as to how Doyle is keeping out Shane Long at the moment & we don't see him making the most of the chances that come his way.
We think this is a really tough match to call & we don't want to side with the Croatians at shortish odds but Ireland's central midfield really is poor & they could give possession away too often to create many chances, unfortunately the oddsmakers make a low scoring game an overwhelming favourite (under 2.5 goals is at 1/2) so there's no play to be made there. Lets go for something altogether more exotic & we'll pick Glenn Whelan to be the first player booked at a generous 12/1, he won't be doing too much other than tackling & we can just see the quick feet of Modric getting the better of him & some nice swipes coming his way in return.
Selections:
Italy to beat Spain on the draw no bet market at 11/4 (Betfred & BetVictor)
Andrea Pirlo to score first at 22/1 (BlueSquare, Stan James & 888Sport)
Glenn Whelan to be first player booked at 12/1 in Ireland v Croatia game (various)
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