Group D is England's & they have a tough draw having to take on France, Sweden & co-hosts Ukraine, it isn't the most glamorous of groups but competition should be fierce for the two qualifying spots & there look to be some value bets on offer for the four teams here.
France: Outright Winners 11/1 & Group D Winners at 7/4
Despite the well-documented chaos surrounding their last two major tournaments France have made huge progress under Laurent Blanc, & at decent odds of 11/1 for the outright win, even Pep Guardiola could be ‘seduced’. As well as topping their qualifying group, France are unbeaten in 18 matches, conquering the likes of Germany, Poland, USA, Brazil & England along the way. The youthful team are now settled & playing as a unit with a solid foundation at the back, conceding just four goals in 10 qualifying matches (only Italy conceded fewer). Flair & creativity come in the form of Frank Ribery & Samir Nasri, whilst goal machine Karim Benzema will use his physical presence to add to his club tally of 32 goals this season. If France can progress through the group stage they'd have a sporting chance up against whoever comes through Group C (even Spain) & they have every chance of action in the latter stages. Progression through the tournament improves the chances of players getting noticed for the Player of the Tournament award & Samir Nasri is definitely a potential player in the market at 66/1, his trickery & inventiveness in tight situations could be crucial in trappy contests & he is worth a small wager at the odds.
(Samir Nasri has firmly established himself as a key player for Les Bleus)
France: Outright Winners 11/1 & Group D Winners at 7/4
Despite the well-documented chaos surrounding their last two major tournaments France have made huge progress under Laurent Blanc, & at decent odds of 11/1 for the outright win, even Pep Guardiola could be ‘seduced’. As well as topping their qualifying group, France are unbeaten in 18 matches, conquering the likes of Germany, Poland, USA, Brazil & England along the way. The youthful team are now settled & playing as a unit with a solid foundation at the back, conceding just four goals in 10 qualifying matches (only Italy conceded fewer). Flair & creativity come in the form of Frank Ribery & Samir Nasri, whilst goal machine Karim Benzema will use his physical presence to add to his club tally of 32 goals this season. If France can progress through the group stage they'd have a sporting chance up against whoever comes through Group C (even Spain) & they have every chance of action in the latter stages. Progression through the tournament improves the chances of players getting noticed for the Player of the Tournament award & Samir Nasri is definitely a potential player in the market at 66/1, his trickery & inventiveness in tight situations could be crucial in trappy contests & he is worth a small wager at the odds.
(Ashley Young has been England's best player recently & much hope rests on his shoulders)
England: Outright Winners 14/1 & Group D Winners at 15/8
England came through qualifying on top of their group without losing a game, it was a really weak group though as evidenced by Montenegro finishing 2nd & the team that may have caused them problems in previous years, Bulgaria, are a side in transition, without any quality players & they finished below Wales! Roy Hodgson has a limited group of players to pick from & the squad looked lacking in quality even before a spate of injuries, to pick players such as Stewart Downing, Andy Carroll & Jermain Defoe is embarrassing for a country that invented the game. Injuries have ruled out two central midfielders who could well have started in Barry & Lampard, some will say that is not that much of a loss with Frank Lampard regularly underperforming for his country & Gareth Barry's laughable lack of pace being a liability, however it has meant the incredibly limited Jordan Henderson has been drafted into the squad. England's star attacker Wayne Rooney is out for the first two games meaning he's out against the two toughest teams in the group in France & Sweden, it could prove difficult to find goals in those games with Andy Carroll being less than prolific & Danny 'Fresh Prince' Welbeck still finding his feet with England.
It looked like 3 out of the back 4 were going to be coming from Chelsea which would have meant some continuity from club to country but Gary Cahill is now a major doubt with a broken jaw so someone else will have to partner the ever popular John Terry in the centre of defence. Terry has made plenty of mistakes this season & while he's still excellent when it comes to last ditch defending in crisis situations sometimes a little more composure & class is needed in these tournaments. At least the very good Joe Hart is between the sticks, he's a top goalkeeper although the people who make a case for him maybe being 'the' best are slightly over-egging things as he does have a tendency to palm the ball back to attackers rather than out of play on occasion. The friendly matches against Norway & Belgium have shown that Roy Hodgson has drilled his team well & they have looked relatively solid defensively, Norway are weak though & Belgium suffer badly from having no focal point in attack. That defensive solidity has come at the cost of reduced threat in attack & they have had to rely on isolated moments of inspiration rather than by carving out chances, Danny Wlebeck took his goal against Belgium extremely well & Ashley Young has further established himself as one of the side's most important attackers - he's now either scored or assisted 11 of England's last 20 goals. We just can't muster enthusiasm about England & it seems difficult to envisage a price at which they'd become backable for the tournament, Hodgson probably has the right tactics with this group of players but they'll need plenty to drop right if they are even to get out of the group & 4/7 as a price for that is horrible.
It looked like 3 out of the back 4 were going to be coming from Chelsea which would have meant some continuity from club to country but Gary Cahill is now a major doubt with a broken jaw so someone else will have to partner the ever popular John Terry in the centre of defence. Terry has made plenty of mistakes this season & while he's still excellent when it comes to last ditch defending in crisis situations sometimes a little more composure & class is needed in these tournaments. At least the very good Joe Hart is between the sticks, he's a top goalkeeper although the people who make a case for him maybe being 'the' best are slightly over-egging things as he does have a tendency to palm the ball back to attackers rather than out of play on occasion. The friendly matches against Norway & Belgium have shown that Roy Hodgson has drilled his team well & they have looked relatively solid defensively, Norway are weak though & Belgium suffer badly from having no focal point in attack. That defensive solidity has come at the cost of reduced threat in attack & they have had to rely on isolated moments of inspiration rather than by carving out chances, Danny Wlebeck took his goal against Belgium extremely well & Ashley Young has further established himself as one of the side's most important attackers - he's now either scored or assisted 11 of England's last 20 goals. We just can't muster enthusiasm about England & it seems difficult to envisage a price at which they'd become backable for the tournament, Hodgson probably has the right tactics with this group of players but they'll need plenty to drop right if they are even to get out of the group & 4/7 as a price for that is horrible.
(British pundits' favourite Zlatan 'goal machine' Ibrahimovic is 50/1 to top score at Euro 2012)
Sweden: Outright Winners 66/1 & Group D Winners at 13/2
Although unlikely to win the tournament, Sweden’s chances in group D seem underestimated, especially with the anticipated underachievement of England & Ukraine slipping in as co-hosts. Having qualified behind Holland in their group as the best runners up, Sweden have proven to be a well organised outfit, in particular when going forward. They scored considerably more goals (31) in their 10 qualifying games than France (15 in 10) & England (17 in 8), although their suspect defence could be a cause for concern. Sweden have never lost to England & will demand respect from Roy Hodgson’s men who will be missing arguably their only world class outfield attacking player in Wayne Rooney when they meet in their opener. Another factor worth considering is the order of fixtures in group D, which could see France fielding a ‘suspect’ team if they enter their third group game against Sweden sitting pretty on six points. Some will be tipping England not to qualify at 17-10, but the France-Sweden straight forecast at 12/1 (or reversing that for Sweden-France at 18/1) must surely attract the smart money.
Having already highlighted Sweden’s goal threat, it would be criminal not to mention world class striker Zlatan Ibrahimovic - generously priced at 50-1 to win the Golden Boot. With Johan Elmander recovering from a fractured metatarsal, Ibrahimovic looks set to be the only focal point of the attack & can continue his goal scoring form that has seen him bag 28 goals to become top scorer in Italy this season. Adding further hope to Ibrahimovic's golden boot claim is Kim Kallstrom who boasted the top amount of assists in qualifying & Sebastian Larson who was only one behind.
(AndriyYarmolenko looks like Ukraine's chief goal threat & may only need 1 or 2 to top score for his side)
Ukraine: Outright Winners 50/1 & Group D Winners at 9/2
The Ukraine, currently 50th in the Fifa rankings (partly from not playing competitive matches), qualified for the tournament as co-hosts. Having skipped the qualifying process, their bleak credentials in this tournament are clear for all to see from their results in recent friendlies, against teams involved in Euro 2012 Ukraine have won none, drawn two & lost four, whilst conceding 15 goals (2.5 per game) & scoring just 5 (0.8 per game) out of 6. Home advantage aside, it really is hard to make a case for Ukraine. Those wishing to back the unlikely co-hosts may be tempted by 22 year old Andriy Yarmolenko with 12 goals in 31 games for Dynamo Kievto be top goal scorer at 125-1, we like the 6/1 with Coral for him to be Ukraine's top scorer, two goals could easily get the outright win & one goal could see him share the odds.
Selections:
Straight forecast France to finish first & Sweden 2nd in Group D - 12/1 (188Bet &William Hill)
Straight forecast Sweden to finish first & France 2nd in Group D - 18/1 (Bet 365)
Andriy Yarmolenko to be Ukraine's top scorer at 6/1 (Coral)
Samir Nasri to be Player of the Tournament at 66/1 (various)
Zlatan Ibrahimovic to be top tournament goalscorer at 50/1 each way 1/4 odds first 4 (various)
Selections:
Straight forecast France to finish first & Sweden 2nd in Group D - 12/1 (188Bet &William Hill)
Straight forecast Sweden to finish first & France 2nd in Group D - 18/1 (Bet 365)
Andriy Yarmolenko to be Ukraine's top scorer at 6/1 (Coral)
Samir Nasri to be Player of the Tournament at 66/1 (various)
Zlatan Ibrahimovic to be top tournament goalscorer at 50/1 each way 1/4 odds first 4 (various)
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