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Wednesday, 20 June 2012

Euro 2012 Quarter Final One - Powerful Portuguese to Sweep to Semi

Well the teams meeting each other in the quarter final stages are all decided now & we've had three games to assess the form of all the sides & some are looking stronger than others & Germany backers must be starting to feel confident after they continued their competitive game winning streak through the toughest Group on show. Portugal also came through Group B & managed a couple of wins, only losing to the Germans & playing respectably in that game, they take on Group A winners the Czech Republic on Thursday night in Warsaw.

(Joao Moutinho can run the midfield for Portugal)

Although these may not be the very best two teams in the quarter finals this game may well end up being the pick of the bunch from a spectator's perspective as both teams strength lies in attack with Ronaldo spearheading Portugal's pacy forward line & Jiracek & Pilar coming in from wide areas to cause problems on behalf of the Czech Republic. All three players we mentioned there have a couple of goals apiece but it's Ronaldo who appeals as likely to thrive here, he really came to life against Holland, his eyes lit up once he realised the Dutch defence weren't up to scratch & he was able to run at them because they needed to attack & he put in an excellent display & could have ended up with more than two against them.

The Czech defence hasn't looked too clever at times & that could spell danger with Ronaldo on the pitch, although they have looked better with Kadlec back at centre back rather than out on the left where ex-Tottenham loanee David Limbersky has come into the side. Theo Gebre Selassie has been pretty impressive going forward from right back for the Czech's but he'll be directly up against Ronaldo here & we don't think he'll cope so Ladbrokes offers of 4/1 for Ronaldo to score first & 5/4 to score anytime should be punted heavily. Nani has been playing at a really high level for the tournament & he's always keeping his head up looking for Ronaldo to pass to when he has the ball & we wouldn't be surprised to see him provide the assist.

(Czech defender Michal Kadlec is on penalty duty - value at 9/1 to score at anytime?)

Key Czech playmaker Tomas Rosicky is a doubt for the game & he'll be a miss, he certainly performs at a higher level for country than club as we've seen many anonymous performances from him for Arsenal. Milan Baros no longer looks to have goals in him but he does do well at bringing Pilar & Jiracek into play & they often make darting diagonal runs into the box either with or without the ball & the Portuguese defence will need to improve if they are to keep a clean sheet. In fairness Portugal's main defensive problems have looked to be when balls are played into the box at head height & only conceded against Holland thanks to an outrageous Van der Vaart strike. The Czech's shouldn't be bombing too many crosses in but they do attach the edges of the area at speed & that means that defenders need to be careful about not committing themselves to challenges as a penalty could be easily conceded. Defender Michal Kadlec is on penalty duty for the Czech's & he's probably slightly overpriced at 9/1 to score anytime as he also gets forward for set pieces & has 8 goals in 37 games for the national team.

We see plenty of excitement & goals in this game, both teams have seen over 2.5 goals in two of their three games so far & odds of 5/4 about over 2.5 goals seem fair, we don't buy that this will be a tense, nervy affair as Portugal now realise they have to put their faith in Ronaldo if they are going to go all the way & they'll look to feed him the ball with regularity. Both teams are good on the counter with pacy wide players but we see Portugal more successfully 'countering the counters'  breaking whilst Gebre Selassie tries to get forward in  attack & we like the look of a Portugal win in 90 minutes at 4/5 with Paddy Power.

Selections:
Portugal to beat Czech Republic at 4/5 (Paddy Power)
Over 2.5 goals at 5/4 (188Bet)
Ronaldo to score first at 4/1 & anytime at 5/4 (Ladbrokes)
Michal Kadlec to score at anytime at 9/1 (Ladbrokes)

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