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Friday, 17 August 2012

Poor Pompey deserve Pity & Punting against

It's finally upon us, the first weekend of the English football season is here after a less tortuous summer break than usual thanks to great sport in the form of the Olympics & European Championships. We'll be bringing you our betting picks throughout the season as we try to seek out value in the multitude of markets the bookies now offer. We're hoping to get the year off to a nice start through backing against a couple of sides with various troubles who just so happen to be Harry 'Wheeler Dealer' Redknapp's last two teams.

Newcastle vs Spurs

The late kick-off in the Premiership this Saturday sees Newcastle host Tottenham at St James Park. Both sides will be in the battle to make the top four this season but you could say Newcastle have the edge at the moment.

(Is chairman Daniel Levy helping or hindering Spurs in their latest transfer saga?)

Spurs have had a summer of change with Harry Redknapp being replaced with Andres Villas-Boas & long term captain Ledley King retiring due to his chronic knee problem. What hasn't changed is the fact that chairman Daniel Levy has yet again let a summer transfer saga overrun without suitable conclusion & seems to think the season starts on the 1st September not mid-August. To come into the opening match with only one senior striker must seem laughable to their rivals & embarrassing to those fans in the stands as Levy has known this since the beginning of the summer (Adebayor's loan finishing & Saha being released). There is a real possibility of Spurs season starting badly with the famous 'two points from eight games' springing to mind with the only differences being a different foreign manager & transfer saga (Berbatov instead of Modric). Jermain Defoe scored a cracker for England in midweek but he doesn't inspire confidence in these quarters, pundits seem to love him yet they conveniently fail to note he's only broken past 13 league goals twice since his season on loan with Bournemouth in 2000-01 & is generally considered to be a 'flat track bully' (scores in bunches against weak sides).

(Newcastle have kept the players to mount a serious 'top four' challenge again)

Newcastle on the other hand have had a fairly quiet summer but have importantly kept hold of all their stars & will be looking to improve on their 5th place finish last season. A solid defence based around keeper Tim Krul & Fabricio Coloccini & defensive shield of Cheick Tiote allows Frenchmen Yohan Cabaye & Hatem Ben Afra to provide the balls to hot shots Papiss Cisse & Demba Ba. A few of these are slightly doubtful for the opener but we would expect them to have enough fit & raring go at kick off. If you add into the mix that Newcastle have only lost once at home in 2012 & Spurs away record to top six sides is notoriously bad the 17/10 on offer for a Toon Army win seems a value bet.

Portsmouth vs Bournemouth
(Portsmouth manager Michael Appleton is facing a uphill battle)

Sorry Portsmouth welcome Bournemouth to Fratton Park in their opening League One fixture. Without being a Pompey fan it will be hard to understand what they are going through after news that they are on the brink of liquidation again with prospective owner Balram Chainrai announcing he has withdrawn his offer to buy the club. The summer has seen all senior players leave via routes to other clubs or contract settlement being agreed & yet again they will have to field basically a youth team to fulfil this fixture. Tuesday night they were defeated 3-0 by Plymouth in the Capital One cup & after first team coach Ashley Westwood went off injured it left their entire outfield side aged 18 or under. In contrast Bournemouth have overcome their money issues in recent years & should be chomping at the bit to get underway with promotion a real possibility. The Cherries have made a number of astute signings & up-front they have three strikers in Lewis Grabban, Matt Tubbs & Josh McQuoid who will be a real handful for any defence, Tubbs & Grabban are both nearing favouritism for top scorer in the division.

Portsmouth have managed to sign 10 players, each on one month deals, this Thursday but it remains to be seen whether they have match fitness & there's no chance for them to gel before Saturday. We expect Bournemouth to take advantage of Pompey's current plight & grab the three points at best odds of 10/11, the side that Portsmouth have right now will be lucky to pick up a handful of wins all season & financial saviour won't stop them slipping into the basement league of English football.

Selections:
Newcastle United to beat Tottenham Hotspur at 17/10 (William Hill)
Bournemouth to beat Portmouth at 10/11 (various)

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