It looks difficult to escape the Manchester clubs when looking for an outright winner for the Premier League especially as we think Chelsea have a lot of work to do to make up ground with so many new faces joining although we reckon Arsenal could make a challenge if their new strike pairing get rolling especially with the addition of the creative talent of Santi Cazorla. As we don't want to wait a full season to pick up potential winnings at relatively short odds we've looked away from the outright winner market for some nice bets at bigger prices.
(Pienaar, Jelavic & Fellaini could grace many a Premier League side)
The team that we like to outperform expectations & make a move on the handicap market (teams are given a head-start on points starting with Man City at scratch to Reading getting as many as 48 points) are
Everton. The Toffees have been undone on so many previous occasions by slow starts to the season but this year David Moyes looks to have got transfer business done relatively early with the permanent re-signing of creative maestro Steven Pienaar & Rangers attacker Steven Naismith who they will look to re-establish the potent partnership he formed with Nikica Jelavic when north of the border. We felt that selling Tim Chaill was a shrewd move as the great servant was certainly in decline & we've never really seen why people were so keen on Jack Rodwell who has now moved to Man City to warm the bench whilst putting plenty of much needed cash into Everton's coffers. David Moyes will be using a little of that Rodwell money to bolster the attack with the expected signing of Belgian Kevin Mirallas & maybe French youngster M'Baye Niang & they would give Moyes much needed attacking options. Everton are solid in defence with Phil Jagielka, John Heitinga & Tim Howard being players worthy of a place in most teams whilst Leighton Baines offers maybe the league's best attacking option from the left back position. Marouane Fellaini is now embarking upon his 5th season at the club & they look to have a solid core of players, the only real area of weakness seems to be that they are imbalanced with more strength down the left than right. If
Everton can get enough to even a reasonable, rather than atrocious, start they should be making a real play for Europe & with +28 points they are our handicap pick.
(How long will new manager Steve Clarke's smile last at West Brom?)
West Brom look like having a rather uncertain season ahead of them after losing arguably their greatest asset in manager Roy Hodgson to the England job, they don't seem to have improved their playing staff considerably & have one of the smaller squads in the league - a relegation battle could ensue.
Making the loan deal for goalkeeper Ben Foster permanent was certainly an astute move as he looks to thrive when out of the spotlight, unlike for England & when at Man United, but he really only keeps West Brom where they were last season & the other permanent deal, for Sewden's Markus Rosenberg looks uninspiring. The Swedish striker scores around once ever 3.5 games but has played mainly in Germany & one season in Spain, he looked woeful in the Euros & may find things considerably tougher in England. It seems that the front line is an area that the Baggies are trying to upgrade as they've also brought in Chelsea's Romelu Lukaku who is still very young at just 19 & ready to improve yet still only scored once in 12 appearances for the Blues, he was much more prolific when in Belgium at Anderlecht. They've also brought in another Belgian on loan in the form of winger Yassine El Ghanassy who has promise but has yet to make the breakthrough to his national team on a regular basis with just one appearance in 2011.
Of the players to leave West Brom left back Nicky Shorey & the underrated Paul Scharner are probably the two most significant as Keith Andrews, Simon Cox & Somen Tchoyi only saw limited playing time last season anyway (Cox could prove a good signing for Nottingham Forest in the Championship). Worries remain around some of the players they've retained as they'll surely be reliant again upon Peter Odemwingie for goals & they didn't seem to be able to decide upon their best players last year with James Morison & the rather limited Gareth McAuley being the only outfield players to make more than 30 league appearances. You look through the West Brom squad & there appear to be too many players of limited ability, you would have to question how many other Premier League sides they'd get into, Hodgson got the most out of this limited bunch through excellent tactical nous but it remains to be seen whether Steve Clarke in his first managerial job can do the same. We are
unconvinced by the summer transfer moves made by West Brom, they seem to be unambitious & could reflect a lack of trust in the manager & with Steve Clarke totally unproven
they seem way too big at 4/1 for relegation.
(2009/10 golden boot winner Carlos Tevez looks fit & mentally ready for the new season)
Moving on to talk about winners rather than potential losers we think there are a couple of underrated players in the top goalscorer market in
Carlos Tevez & new Arsenal signing
Lukas Podolski with the bookies offering some value with prices that are conducive to each way betting. Tevez looked slimmed down when stepping out for the recent Community Shield match & put in a very good performance capped by a stunning goal from the edge of the area, he's a player of the highest quality & arguably just about the best in the league when on form. Tevez is a proven scorer in the league with 23 & 20 league goals in his first two seasons with City & he shared the golden boot with Berbatov two seasons back, around 20 goals is the key to being in at least the places in this race. City seem to be committed to attacking now & the only worry would be that Tevez could have to share playing time with Aguero, Balotelli & Dzeko but he seems to have put any problems with the management behind him & we expect him to play close to the 30 games he'll need to challenge for this, at twice the odds of Aguero
Tevez is the bet at 16/1.
(Lukas Podolski is a superstar at international level & now seeks to become a Premier League star)
We've seen some pundits reckoning Podolski is a potential flop but he's scored 44 goals for Germany in 101 caps & he's only 27 years old so should be entering his very best years now, he struggled when moving to German giants Bayern Munich but may be better suited now a few years later & with less expectation on his shoulders. With 18 goals for relegated Koln last year Podolski showed he's not to be messed with & he's scored a few Champions League goals too which shows he can cut it at the highest level. Robin van Persie was last year'stop scorer with 30 goals & that wasn't simply because he's excellent - he also had a great supply line at Arsenal & now Podolski along with the other new signing Giroud will get to benefit from that service. We reckon
Podolski could form a potent partnership with the 6"3 Giroud & benefit from some knockdowns & layoffs, the German is as short as 20/1 with Ladbrokes but
we'll take the 40/1 on offer with Sportingbet at what looks a great price for a striker at a top club with an attacking philosophy.
Selections:
Everton to win on the handicap with +28 points at 15/1 (various)
West Bromwich Albion to be relegated at 4/1 (various)
Carlos Tevez to be top scorer each way at 16/1 (Ladbrokes, Coral & William Hill) 1/4 odds 1-2-3-4
Lukas Podolski to be top scorer each way at 40/1 (Sportingbet) 1/4 odds 1-2-3-4
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