(Tom Brady is searching for his 4th Super Bowl ring with the Patriots)
The New England Patriots really do walk their own path, whilst every other team seems to go for 6' 2" plus wide receivers they had the league leader with the 5' 9" Wes Welker & instead they've led the way with the use of tight ends with the physically dominating Rob Gronkowski & also Aaron Hernandez causing havoc in opposing defenses with their exceptional catching abilities. The big problem for them this week is that Gronkowski who has had a huge 20 touchdown catches in regular & postseason combined is listed as questionable for Sunday with an ankle injury sustained against the Ravens, if he was out it would be a big blow & even if he does play there have to be doubts whether he's fit enough to do the damage he usually does. They still have an outstanding passing game thanks to having an all-time great quarterback in Tom Brady & a great offensive line too that only allowed 32 sacks even though they attempted to pass over 600 times in the regular season & just 1 sack in their two playoff games against two of the best defenses around. It helps that Brady doesn't hold on to the ball for too long as they tend to go for medium gains in the passing game & get 1st downs rather than down the field passes for touchdowns. Sticking to that style will be important even if they are without Gronkowski as the Giants are keen to use their swarming pass rush to put pressure on Brady at all times, if he holds onto the ball for too long he will be punished.
(We think Victor Cruz can have a big game against New England's secondary)
The Giants pass game is quite different from New England's with Eli Manning having a strong arm & the receivers to get deep down the field & leap up to catch the ball even when covered with receivers, we've seen Victor Cruz, Hakeem Nicks & Mario Manningham do it all season & with success. Those receivers can also do it in the shorter passing game but the real danger they offer is down the field, Travis Beckum a tight end with just 5 regular season catches has stepped up with 7 postseason grabs & will be looked to again in short yardage situations when they go to pass. The Giants only allowed 28 sacks in the regular season & the Patriots are only average at getting pressure on the passer & that could be telling because if Eli gets time in the pocket & his receivers get downfield they will surely punish the Patriots' weak secondary that saw them give up a league worst 79 passing plays of 20+ yards. At 11/10 to score at anytime Victor Cruz looks a decent bet, he had 10 receptions last week against the 49ers top defense & although he didn't score he had 9 regular season touchdowns & over 1500 receiving yards even though he didn't begin the season as a regular starter. Eli Manning has improved as a passer since winning in the Super Bowl 4 years ago but it would still take a fool to say he's better than Brady, they have very different passing games & although the Patriots edge it here the better matchup today is definitely for the Giants.
(BenJarvus Green-Ellis is the Patriots chief rushing threat & looks overpriced to score a TD)
Both teams have pass first offenses but the running game could still prove significant & they won't want to become predictable & easier to defend by abandoning the run. The Patriots acually have a respectable rushing game & ranked 20th in the regular season even though their backs aren't exactly stars with BenJarvus Green-Ellis & little Danny Woodhead doing a steady job whilst rarely being spectacular. Woodhead is looked to in the passing game reasonably often but is rarely used when close to the goal line so Green-Ellis makes a great deal of appeal to score a touchdown at anytime at 10/11, he has been handed the ball on no less than 28 occasions in the two playoff games & he managed to run one in against the Ravens last week to add to his 11 regular season TDs. The Giants rushers have been simply useless this year & whilst we've heard many people say they can come good here we just don't see it, they have two backs who've been respectable in the past but this year both Ahmad Bradshaw & Brandon Jacobs have failed to pick up enough yards to make an impact leaving the Giants ranked a league worst 32nd in total yards & average yards gained rushing. They don't do a bad job when close to the goal line often managing to power their way in in short yardage situations but they rarely get the big gains needed to alleviate pressure from the passing game. The Giants don't tend to abandon the rush though meaning New England will have to defend against it but we'd be surprised if they manage much over 100 yards rushing in the whole game although it could still be important in gaining the first downs they need.
(Jason Pierre-Paul & the rest of the Giants pass rush could be the key to winning here)
The area of the game that we see this really swinging to the Giants is on defense as we're big fans of their pass rush, especially the defensive ends Jason Pierre-Paul & Justin Tuck, Pierre-Paul has been outstanding with 16.5 sacks & regularly forcing passers into making mistakes. Those two are backed up by Mathias Kiwanuka with the tackles Joseph & Canty getting a great push up front to create the sack opportunities. Further back Antrel Rolle continues to show he's a top safety & had a career high 96 tackles this year, he still doesn't get huge amounts of interceptions but has the athleticism to cover most receviers when they go deep, he may need to use that athleticism if the Patriots look to the pacy Deion Branch to cover for Gronkowski's injury problems. The Patriots are poor at the cornerback & safety positions, Devin McCourty might be their best in the secondary & he's had a lot of tackles but has dropped right down in picks with just 2 interceptions compared to 7 in his rookie year. They are better closer to the line & the huge Vince Wilfork continues to be a pleasure to watch using his size to dominate the opposing linemen & he even got his 1st two interceptions of his 8 year career this season & picking up 19 & 28 yards returning on the two occasions. Linebacker Rob Ninkovich has had his best season & seems to have the pace & power to cause problems all over the field for an opposing defense, the Patriots will try to get him through to Eli Manning on plenty of plays. Both teams rank high in interceptions with New England having 23 in the regular season & the Giants having 20, the Patriots' figure is probably increased due to them having such good leads at times & teams having to throw desperate passes, they still have to grab them out of the air though so it's impressive, we don't see them out-muscling the Giants' recivers to get those picks too easily though. In terms of special teams both have pretty decent units with their returners being steady & unlikely to cough the ball up too often, Devin Thomas for the Giants is probably the most dangerous with safe hands & some great raw pace. Kicking-wise Lawrence Tynes has proven that he has the coolness in big game situations for the Giants & Stephen Gostkowski looks to be highly competent with a decent range for the Patriots, you would have no qualms about sending either on to kick a last minute field goal to win the game.
(Eli Manning can celebrate a second Super Bowl victory over the Patriots)
This isn't an easy one to call especially with Tom Brady having won 3 out of the 4 Super Bowls he's been to with only the game against these opponents being unsuccessful, the Patriots were superior in the regular season with the Giants only just squeezing into the playoffs but New York look to be the side on a roll & we're with the Giants at odds of 13/10. The Patriots didn't manage one regular season win against a side that ended up with a winning record yet even with that weak schedule they still had the 2nd worst defense in the league in yards given up, they lost to the Giants earlier in the year & although they have a great offense Gronkowski is key to that & either him missing or not fully fit is a big blow. Eli Manning is exuding confidence whereas Brady didn't throw a touchdown last week for the first time in 36 games in the divisional playoff against the Ravens, the Giants will be feeling great after going to the NFC's number one & two seeded teams & beating them in their own back yards. Tom Coughlin's men have put behind their dodgy mid season run of form & look to have all of the momentum, if they can win the value lies with bcaking Victor Cruz to get the MVP (Most Valuable Player) award at 14/1, it most likely goes to the quarterback so a saver on Eli Manning at 2/1 with VictorBet isn't a bad option, we just feel Cruz has the explosive sort of plays to capture the voters imagination & he could really burn the Patriots.
Selections:
New York Giants to beat New England Patriots at 13/10 (Ladbrokes)
New York Giants to win by 7-12 points at 13/2 (PaddyPower & Ladbrokes)
Victor Cruz to win MVP award at 14/1 (general)
Victor Cruz to score a touchdown at anytime at 11/10 (Ladbrokes)
BenJarvus Green-Ellis to score a touchdown at anytime at 10/11 (Betfred)
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