(Porto's new signing from Brazilian club Santos, Danilo looks quite a player)
Manchester City's Champions league campaign failed to ignite in a tough group also containing German powerhouses Bayern Munich & a useful Napoli side, City performed creditably at home with two wins (one against a weakened Bayern side) & a draw but their only points away from home came against hapless & pointless Villareal & City face a daunting away trip to opponents F.C. Porto in this first knockout round of the Europa League. Porto are the current holders of this cup, gaining that victory under previous coach Andre Villas-Boas & have an arguably stronger squad than last season as they sold star forward Radamel Falcao for 40m Euros but retained most of the rest of the team (although Falcao's fellow Colombian Fredy Guarin has just joined Inter on loan with an option for a permanent move). Porto have bolstered their squad with Steven Defour & Eliaquim Mangala from Standard Liege plus have brought in two of Brazil's brightest defensive talents in Alex Sandro & Danilo, Danilo a midfielder & right back signed in the January transfer window looks to have all the attributes needed to be a world star. The Portuguese league isn't known for being ultra competitive, Porto won without losing a match last year, but they've still only conceded 12 goals in their 18 games so far, although they trail Benfica by 5 points, showing just how watertight they can be. Up front Hulk continues to be a menace scoring goals himself & getting plenty of assists, he's struck up a decent partnership with fellow Brazilian Kleber & they'll cause City problems here.
City haven't had the greatest runs of form since Christmas, going out of the Cups & drawing away to West Brom & losing away to Sunderland & Everton, in fact their only away wins in the league since 5th November came against rock bottom Wigan & a negative Villa side this past weekend. The Citizens haven't looked nearly so good without Africa Cup of Nations competitors the Toure brothers & will be hoping to have them back as soon as possible after their disappointing loss in the final, they probably won't be back in time for this game though & City still won't have the presence of Yaya driving them forwards from midfield. Although still great at home Mancini's cautiousness means City are unlikely to be too expansive here & would surely settle for a draw, that's dangerous as Porto are a top notch team & although they disappointed in the Champions League they'll look to rally & will want to take a lead to Manchester. Bearing in mind City may settle for a draw we think that Porto at Evens in the draw no bet market is a real tempter & should be backed, they'll need a result here before going to the Etihad next Wednesday.
(How do you stop him scoring? Udinese's 34 year old phenomenon Antonio Di Natale)
Udinese weren't able to qualify for the Champions League after meeting Arsenal in the qualifying rounds but they came through in 2nd place behind a good Atletico Madrid side in their Europa League group with Celtic behind & now they come up against Greek side PAOK Saloniki in their first knockout game. PAOK topped the group containing Tottenham & beat them at White Hart Lane thanks to a lightning fast start, scoring twice in the first quarter of an hour against their hosts who began lethargically & then couldn't ever claw their way back, it does need to be mentioned that Spurs never really seemed to be too concerned with the competition though. PAOK also managed a very creditable draw away to Rubin Kazan which is no mean feat & they are worthy of respect although they are now shorn of star winger Vierinha who moved to Wolfsburg in the transfer window, he was a real goal threat & they'll now have to rely even more heavily on academy product Stefanos Athanasiadis who's managed 4 goals this year in the competition. Udinese lost some of their top players for big prices in the Summer with Alexis Sanchez & Christian Zapata heading to Spain whilst Gokhan Inler moved to Napoli but they've coped admirably & currently sit 4th in Serie A. Veteran & club legend Antonio Di Natale is still banging the goals in at the age of 34, he was on fire with 28 league goals last year & has carried that on in 2011-12. Udinese will be hoping to have the Ghanaians Kwadwo Asamoah & Badu back but even if they don't they should be able to break PAOK down & a price of 4/5 for Udinese to prevail looks too good to be true, PAOK will likely come to defend meaning a win to nil is likely & we like the look of a 2-0 home win at 7/1.
(Things haven't always gone totally to plan for City & Mancini in Europe - why are they favourites?)
In terms of outright winners it seems fair to see Manchester's City & United at the head of the market although we can't quite work out why City are ahead of last year's Champions League finalists especially as they have to first get past a classy Porto side just to progress past the first knockout stage. The worry with having a bet on either of the English sides is whether they'll be treating this competition with enough respect to actually win it, Ferguson used words to the effect that it was a punishment having to play in the Thursday night competition & he has left Patrice Evra, Ryan Giggs & Dimitar Berbatov at home for their first away trip to Ajax although there has been no injury news as of yet. There should be motivation for winning the competition for Ferguson as it is the one trophy that has so far evaded him both with Aberdeen & United & we'd be much keener to back them at the prices, especially given their European pedigree, than Man City, even if Mancini can keep his combustible squad operating it seems difficult to believe they can keep up the pace on two fronts especially now that their rivals are breathing down their necks in the all-important title race.
(Schalke's Raul & Huntelaar may just be the best strike partnership in Europe)
Instead we really like the look of the German side Schalke 04 to take this at odds of 12/1, they won the competition back in its days of the UEFA Cup in 1997 & their free flowing football can prove dangerous to any opponents that face them. Although Schalke faced a bad loss to league rivals Borussia Monchengladbach this past weekend they had previously been on a great run of form losing just twice since 24th September & their strike force of Real Madrid legend Raul & Klaas-Jan Huntelaar has been particularly successful. Huntelaar looks revitalised after not quite living up to expectations at first Real Madrid & then AC Milan, his understanding with Raul is especially impressive with them linking up regularly to torment defences. In home-grown players like wonderkid Julian Draxler & the technically talented Lewis Holtby the strikers get a great service from midfield & Christoph Metzelder provides experience in defence whilst captain Benedikt Howedes looks like he'll end up being a mainstay in central defence for the national side for years to come. The one real worry for last year's Champions League semi-finalists is that starting goalkeeper Ralf Fahrmann has been lost to injury although they've reacted quickly by bringing Timo Hildebrand back to his homeland from Sporting in Portugal. Schalke have great European experience & are likely to take treat this competition with respect & should be able to progress past Czech opponents Viktoria Plzen in this round before really unleashing a charge.
Selections:
Porto to beat Manchester City draw no bet at 10/11 (Betfred & Blue Square)
Udinese to beat PAOK Saloniki at 4/5 (Boylesports, BetVictor & William Hill)
Udinese to beat PAOK Saloniki 2-0 at 7/1 (William Hill)
Schalke to win Europa League outright at 12/1 (Various)
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