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Friday 1 June 2012

Camelot a worthy Derby favourite

The most famous flat race in the world is upon us & this year's Epsom Derby sees a potential superstar in the form of Camelot descend upon the race & with Aidan O'Brien having trained the winners of all three of the Classics so far it'll take a brave punter to back against him making it 4 from 4 here. We've got the Derby covered plus the supporting 5 furlong Dash & a punt from Haydock's 7 furlong Group 3 race too, hopefully we can keep up the good tipping that has seen 4 of our last 5 selections be successful.

(Camelot looks the class act in the Derby field)

Camelot won the 2,000 Guineas, getting up late on & then holding the French raider French Fifteen with the pair over two lengths clear of the field, that form in itself is the best on offer & having won the key two year old Derby trial in the Racing Post Trophy he's already two Group One wins from just 3 starts & he can add a 3rd here. The somewhat sticky ground at Newmarket probably didn't help Camelot & although ridden from the rear we feel he'd have won more convincingly if travelling a bit closer to the pace as he won twice over a mile as a two year old & is by Montjeu so should have the right amount of stamina for the Derby trip. Andrew Balding's Bonfire looks like starting as 2nd favourite but we were not impressed at all with the win in the Dante, he only got up late to beat Ektihaam & that horse would be way out in the betting if running here. Bonfire did behave very badly at York though & if settling better he could show an improved level of form & trainer Andrew Balding is in decent form though with 3 winners from his last 5 runners. Main Sequence is the other unbeaten horse in the race but his wins have been in races some way below this level & his Lingfield Derby Trial win unfortunately took place on the polytrack & it's difficult to see how that form will translate to quickish ground on Epsom's undulations. Lucarno is beautifully bred, as a full brother to Lucarno, but was getting 5 pounds off of Noble Mission & only just beat that one at Newmarket last time, today's rival Rugged Cross was some way behind & looks a no hoper. We reckon the biggest risk to Camelot could come from stablemate Astrology who definitely has the stamina & has already won (by some margin) at a tricky track when taking Chester's Dee Stakes. Astrology could threaten but Camelot is the one to be on & 4/6 looks fair enough as a price seeing as none of the other rivals look like classic winners.

(Bear Behind is speedy & can travel at the front the whole way in the Dash)

Epsom's 5 furlong track is the quickest in the world as the horses race downhill all the way & being able to travel at a high pace is crucial to winning & Bear Behind has that quality & plenty of nice form to go with it. Tom Dascombe's colt is one of only two 3 year olds in the race so is open to more improvement than many of his rivals here & is drawn up against the stands rail which will help keep him straight on the track, he's regularly quick out of the stalls & with a sharp start here he'll be tough to beat. Bear Behind beat Hamish McGonagal earlier in the year but had the race somewhat harshly taken away for interference & then only failed by a neck to beat the speedy Ballesteros when giving it 6 pounds & they were 11 lengths clear of the pack, that was on heavy ground & it will be very different conditions here. Last year's winner Captain Dunne deserves respect & we've always liked Sohraab but Bear Behind is the one to get on at odds of 8/1, his style of racing is perfect for the race & his rivals might just not be able to reel him in from the front.

(Red Jazz will prove a cut above his Haydock rivals)

In Haydock's 7 furlong Group 3 race we can't see past Red Jazz, Charlie Hills' runner is joint top rated with Royal Rock but gets 3 pounds off of that one & is almost certainly a better horse anyway. Royal Rock also hasn't raced over as far as this for the past 5 years & there have to be stamina questions, this is Red Jazz's optimum trip & he can get further so Michael Hills may make plenty of use of his ride to draw the sting out of his rivals. Majestic Myles is nice enough but was easily beaten by Red Jazz last time & we wouldn't be surprised to see Red Jazz go off shorter than 7/4 - get on this good thing!

Selections:
Haydock 2.35 - Red Jazz to win at 7/4
Epsom 3.15 - Bear Behind to win at 8/1
Epsom 4.00 - Camelot to win at 4/6

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