About us

Welcome to http://likebuyingmoney.blogspot.com/. We are a small team of passionate, dedicated and successful sports betting tipsters specialising in football, horse racing and the NFL. Our aim is to provide long term profit. All views are our own. For regular updates join us and our expanding group of followers on twitter at .

To hear our opinions, make a suggestion or ask a question please contact us via twitter or our email address likebuyingmoney@hotmail.co.uk. All freelance writing opportunities considered.

Thursday, 31 May 2012

Ryan Moore will be smiling & blowing Kisses on Oaks day

The Oaks is the premier Fillies Classic & takes place at Epsom & Aidan O'Brien looks to be running a hatful as he attempts to keep his English Classic clean sweep going after victories in the 1,000 & 2,000 Guineas, there are some top UK based trainers looking to take him on though & it could be a great race. We're taking a look at the big race plus the Group 3 Diomed Stakes as we look to pick up from last weekend with 3 winning bets from 4 (advised at 13/8, 100/30 & a double at a shade above 5/1).

(If allowed to have a run Kissed could use her stamina & turn of foot to good effect in the Oaks)

With 6 runners declared Aidan O'Brien has nearly half of the field for the Guineas & his leading hopes look to be 1,000 Guineas third Maybe & unbeaten, two time Navan winner Kissed, O'Brien has said that the latter only runs if there is some ease in the ground but if she does then she's our idea of the winner. Kissed only had one run in 2011 but she won her 17 runner maiden in pretty good style & when she turned out at the end of April in the Listed Salsabil stakes she looked some filly, destroying the 5 runner field & looking like she had all the stamina needed for the 12 furlong trip here. Stamina was always unlikely to be an issue for Kissed as she's by Galileo, out of a Darshaan mare (she's actually a 3/4 sister to last year's Derby winner Pour Moi). She did look really at home on the soft ground at Navan though & if it were to get quick here it's understandable if she wasn't to run, however there has been some watering at Epsom & it was a little cooler on Thursday with the chance of some light showers in the night so she could get the tiny bit of cut wanted, if she does then Ryan Moore is the man to have aboard as he'll deliver her charge early enough to get these on the stretch in the tough Epsom straight. 

Maybe was a hot favourite for the Guineas & we were keen on her chances after an outstanding juvenile year but the race didn't turn out as planned with stablemate & outsider Homecoming Queen winning by a record margin, there have to be some doubts about the validity of that form & that was held up by the winner only coming in 4th in a pretty average looking Irish 1,000. Joseph O'Brien gets the mount suggesting she is the first string but we have seen plenty of Ballydoyle second strings win good races & we aren't enthusiastic about the English Guineas form, that means we also don't like the Fugue at the available prices. The Fugue came 4th in the Guineas, a little behind Maybe, but she was impressive in the Musidora at York & beat another O'Brien horse, Twirl, with some authority. Twirl however would be some way down the pecking order at Ballydoyle pecking order having only won a maiden & may just have been running in the Musidora as it looked a weak option. Vow is another unbeaten filly but again looks a little on the short side as she doesn't seem to have beaten anything of note & the Lingfield Oaks Trial win was only on the polytrack, although it was pretty nice how she quickened up & she shad one of today's rivals, Colima, over 3 lengths behind. Godolphin's Kailani looks a very nice type but being by Monsun she may want soft ground even more than Kissed & a Leger tilt later in the year could be on the cards for this stamina laden type. The best odds on offer are for Kissed at 7/1 in general & 15/2 with William Hill, back her & if she does run she should go off a couple of points shorter.

(Side Glance needs to bounce back from a couple of poor runs but can do in the Diomed)

Worthadd looks like being a pretty short priced favourite for the one mile Diomed & with a 2nd place in a Group One (Newbury's 2011 Lockinge stakes) & an easy win in a Group Two in Germany last time it's understandable but that win does mean carrying a penalty & Side Glance could be a tough foe if coming back to last summer's form. Side Glance's seasonal debut run was pretty disappointing, only coming in 5th but the first & second there went on to fill the same places in the Group Two Sandown Mile. On the polytrack last time Side Glance only came 3rd but was the only horse near the front to end up close with both Sri Putra & Saamidd coming from way off the pace. If you go back to 2011 Side Glance won 2 Listed races & then a Group 3 at Salisbury all over this distance in a span of 4 races & he could just be coming into some form now, he was eased a little at Kempton when the hold up horses sped past in the latter stages & it wasn't a bad run really (Sri Putra's previous run had been in the Champion Stakes). At odds of 4/1 with Skybet Side Glance is the value alternative to Worthadd as he gets 3 pounds off that rival.

2.50 Epsom - Side Glance to win at 4/1 (Skybet)
4.05 Epsom - Kissed to win at 15/2 (William Hill)

No comments:

Post a Comment