Royal Ascot 2013 - Pick the Rite one in Gold Cup

Tuesday's Royal Ascot was a big let down for us with Animal Kingdom completely flopping in the Queen Anne (no explanation for the poor show has been forthcoming) & Reckless Abandon hanging in the latter stages of the King's Stand. It was certainly a disappointing start but Thursday is Gold Cup day & the UK's premier race for stayers looks to offer some value whilst we also think an outsider could outrun its odds in the Britannia Stakes.

3.45 Royal Ascot - Gold Cup

An outstanding showing of 18 runners for this Group One event over two & a half miles & 11 of the runners have official ratings of 112 upwards to show the strength in depth of the race. That strength in depth means you can get 6/1 for the favourite (likely to be the Queen's filly Estimate) & plenty of nice prices elsewhere in the field & we like the 7/1 available about the hugely talented, unfortunately fragile, former winner Rite Of Passage.

(Rite Of Passage is tenacious & classy - what's not to like?)

Dermot Weld's 9 year old won the race in game fashion on today's good to firm ground in 2010 yet has only made it to the track twice since, once in 2011 & again just once in 2012 when winning at the track in October against a high quality field. From just five true flat runs (ignoring bumper races) Rite Of Passage has won 4 races & finished 3rd the other time (to the awesome Fame And Glory) - that's some record & the horse, thankfully, doesn't take much racing so looks likely to put up a serious challenge here.

We're not too keen on Estimate's chances although she's clearly a very nice filly & she gets allowances both for her age & gender meaning she gets 5 pounds off the older horses. We just think that the ground may be against her as sire Monsun tends to get horses with a nice round action that go better with a little cut in the ground & her most impressive display came on soft ground when destroying the field last year here in the Queen's Vase. Her price may just be a little shorter than it should be thanks to her owner (remember all the hype with Carlton House?) & we fear others more including Opinion Poll & Francois Doumen's Top Trip who could come good over this testing trip.

With a proposed run out at the Curragh cancelled the build up to the race could have been better for Rite Of Passage but there's no better horse in the race so odds of 7/1 look very fair indeed & warrant a decent wager.

4.25 Royal Ascot - Britannia Stakes

There's no doubt about it, our next selection is a risky one but how could it be anything else in a 30 runner, one mile charge up the straight course? The pick is Ebn Arab at odds of 40/1 so that risk also offers a potentially hefty reward.

(Charlie Hills sends out Ebn Arab for the Brittania Handicap)

Charlie Hills' charge has looked imperious in wins at York (on debut) & Doncaster (seasonal debut) but has disappointed in his other three, admittedly fairly hot, races. Those wins came when the ground was pretty quick & that's what we think could make the difference here with the Dixie Union colt bred to appreciate a rattlingly quick surface & clearly not handling the step up in trip, stiff finish & soft ground at Sandown last time out. At Doncaster he seemed to enjoy travelling with a bit of cover, even though only a four runner affair, & should be able to find some cover in this big field & if settling could be on a very nice mark of 100 as we had the impression of a pattern performer before his blowout last time.

There are plenty of questions to answer & lots of opposition but Bet365 offer 5 places & odds of 40/1 about Ebn Arab & those terms are tempting enough to advise an each way bet.

Selections:
3.45 Royal Ascot - Rite Of Passage to win at 7/1 (Various)
4.25 Royal Ascot - Ebn Arab each way at 40/1 (Bet365 1/4 odds 5 places)

Ebn Arab to outclass Sandown rivals

We've kind of been on an unofficial break here at LikeBuyingMoney central but it's been for a reason with us not being able to identify an awful lot of value in the domestic football markets during the season run in with some of the market over-reactions seen inprevious years maybe not quite so evident. We're back here with a horse racing pick before the Oaks & Derby at Epsom this Friday & Saturday & are quietly confident that this is a pretty good one on the best evening racing of the year here in the UK.

8.20 Sandown - Heron Stakes

We clocked Ebn Arab's potential right from the start when particularly taken with the Dixie Union colt's debut win when taking a 7 furlong maiden at York by 5 lengths & getting considerably better as the race went on. Trainer Charlie Hills clearly thought his horse had talent as Ebn Arab was put into Group 3 company on his next two outings when filling the 4th spot both times but up behind some pretty good horses, in the first race, York's Acomb Stakes, Dundonnell & Steeler finished 1st & 2nd & have last raced with respective ratings of 113 & 112 so are very useful types.

(Paul Hanagan will hope to get another winner up for Sheikh Hamdan Al Maktoum)

It's fair to say that Ebn Arab didn't look a world beater in those 2nd & 3rd runs even taking into account the step up in class but his runs just didn't match up to debut as he weakened late on in the latter races when it seemed he excelled in the maiden the further it went. On seasonal debut nearly 4 weeks ago Ebn Arab slammed rivals rated 95 & 105 by 3&1/4 lengths & 5 lengths respectively with a very smooth victory that seemed to suggest he'd trained on well.

The main rivals here look to be Richard Hannon's Montiridge & William Haggas's Queensbury Rules & both have form linked in with this past weekend's Irish 2,000 Guineas. Montiridge finished a close 2nd to the Irish 2,000 Guineas 3rd Trading Leather last year but was disappointing on debut this year when 3rd & well beaten in a Listed contest at Windsor - probably so respected in the market here due to that Trading Leather form but we're unconvinced especially as we think Trading Leather was given a very soft lead at the Curragh anyway.

Queensbury Rules' form is interesting as on just its 2nd run (& 2nd win) it beat Glacial Age that then went on & finished 3rd to the Irish Guineas winner Magician at Chester - it was well beaten (8 lengths) at Chester but that still suggests Queensbury Rules has already run to a nice level. A big plus for Queensbury Rules is that this is a small field affair & as the only confirmed front runner Fallon should get his mount an easy lead - we're actually quite pleased as we think that should give Ebn Arab the tow he wants into the race & odds of 3/1 for a colt also entered in the Group One St James Palace look too good to pass up. We'd like it if the ground could dry a little during the day as Ebn Arab has a US pedigree & they tend to like quicker ground but stamina wise we're not too concerned as Dixie Union did sire a Belmont Stakes (1m 4f) winner.

Selection:
8.20 Sandown - Ebn Arab to win at 3/1 (Various)

2000 Guineas - Take a winning Approach

The first two Classics of the season are upon us as Newmarket hosts the 2,000 Guineas for colts on Saturday & the fillies equivalent in the 1,000 Guineas on Sunday, we're taking a look at both races as we look to continue selecting winners on the flat.


Saturday 3.50 Newmarket - 2,000 Guineas

(Godolphin owned Dawn Approach can provide his Dubai owners with some much needed joy)

We were pretty sweet on the chances of Richard Hannon's Toronado in his Guineas trial the Craven & the High Chaparral colt won in impressive style over the course & distance & deserves to be riding high in the betting. The Craven was just a four runner affair though & the runner up Havana Gold, whilst a nice type probably isn't a star & it looked like Toronado was far better suited to the conditions than his rivals there, of course those are the same as here with ground conditions similar too & jockey Richard Hughes should have him well positioned. As good as Toronado may be we've a suspicion that he looks more of a Derby type, especially how he's finished his races, & last season's star colt Dawn Approach looks the better option right now.

Jim Bolger's colt won the excellent Guineas trial the Dewhurst here at the end of last season just like his sire New Approach who finished 2nd in the 2008 version of this race. That Dewhurst win followed 5 previous wins from 5 starts including excellent victories at Royal Ascot & in the Group One National Stakes at the Curragh. Although Dawn Approach hasn't won over the distance yet there seems little doubt he'll get it as wins on softish ground over just a furlong shorter suggest a mile looks the perfect distance. There are discrepancies in price thanks to support for Toronado in the last week or so & Dawn Approach is available at 15/8 with (BetVictor) whilst as short as 5/4 with Ladbrokes, that 15/8 looks worthy of a significant wager.

Of the other contenders Aidan O'Brien's three entries have to be worth looking at considering his great record in the race with 6 previous wins including last year with the great Camelot - Cristoforo Colombo looks his number one chance with son, & Irish champion jockey, Joseph O'Brien taking the mount. Cristoforo Colombo has only won once in five runs & has already lost to Dawn Approach (in the Coventry at Royal Ascot) & we were slightly surprised that Mars wasn't the first choice even though the beautifully bred Galileo colt has only run one time before. Richard Hannon's other entry Van Der Neer has a very nice turn of foot & could offer value if you do look outside of the first two in the betting but we're confident that Dawn Approach can win with style.

Sunday 3.50 Newmarket - 1,000 Guineas

The 1,000 Guineas looks an altogether more open affair with no standout filly in the market & we like the chances of another French winner after Natagora in 2008 & Special Duty in 2010 with Mikel Delzangles' What A Name looking to hold a leading chance.

(What A Name can take the 2013 1,000 Guineas trophy to France)

What A Name was beaten just over a length by Olympic Glory at Longchamp on Arc weekend & that looks probably the best bit of form on offer (we reckon Olympic Glory will win the French 2,000 Guineas). We like the breeding of What A Name with her being by Mr Greeley & that should mean that quickish ground should hold no worries & her rider Christophe Lemaire has already won the race before & should be able to get her well placed from her stall 12 draw.

The favourite Hot Snap has only raced twice & looks to be at the head of the market on promise & thanks to the deserved reputation of trainer Henry Cecil as a master trainer of fillies. Although the win in the Nell Gwyn was impressive by Hot Snap we're not sure that the runner up Sky Lantern is as good as her official rating suggests & odds of 11/4 are too short. We're convinced What A Name will run into a place at a minimum & that means that a hefty each way bet at odds of 5/1 looks a good way to guarantee a return - we think she'll win & that could mean a highly profitable weekend of racing.

Selections:
Dawn Approach to win 2,000 Guineas at 15/8 (BetVictor)
What A Name each way for the 1,000 Guineas at 5/1 (General)

More Glory to come for Hannon & Hughes

A full day of betting opportunities this Saturday with football fixtures, good jump racing (including the Scottish Grand National & Champion Hurdle) at Ayr & some high quality flat racing at Newbury. We've a pick from the Championship plus two racing picks from Newbury as we look to keep turning a profit.

Bolton Wanderers vs Middlesbrough

The Championship is coming to its climax & Bolton are frantically chasing a playoff spot as they host Middlesbrough who appear to have thrown away their chance of a shot at promotion with an alarming post-Christmas slump in form.

(Improved & improving Marcos Alonso - just like Bolton)

This game really is a tale of opposites with Bolton starting their season disastrously when thought by many (including ourselves) to be strong title contenders but then really turning things around from February onwards with 9 wins from 14 games. Boro won their last game on Tuesday night against Nottingham Forest but that was only their 3rd win of 2013 after looking very strong through the first half of the season. Bolton lost last time out & that was against out-of-form Leicester but it was a road game & they've been far stronger at the Reebok with 13 wins from 21 games vs 4 from 22 away from home, Leicester have been under-performing for a while but they are a very good Championship side really & Bolton gave them a battle only going down late in the 3-2 loss.

Middlesbrough don't score often enough to relieve pressure on their defence, which is serviceable but certainly not impenetrable, they've only scored 4 in their last 8 games & have drawn a blank 5 times in that sequence. Bolton meanwhile have started to show a bit more in defence whilst maintaining their fairly potent attack that is even seeing David N'Gog occasionally scoring, Marcos Alonso is improving as a defender & is getting forward to support the attacking play as well as any full back in the Championship at the moment. Middlesbrough have lost 9 of their last 10 away from home & drawn the other one in that time, they come up against the Trotters who've won their last 7 in a row at the Reebok & haven't lost here since Boxing Day, backing Bolton at only a shade of odds on looks the best football bet of the day.

2.20 Newbury - Spring Cup

(Hayley Turner has a chance of riding another winner for the Queen)

25 runners line up for this competitive early season handicap & that should make things tough from a betting perspective but we think there are good reasons to get behind Border Legend off a light weight as Hayley Turner bids to follow up a win on the Queen owned Sign Manual here on Friday.

Roger Charlton's 4 year old gelding looks unexposed with just 5 runs behind him & has one piece of form which reads very well indeed when close up to Lahaag at Nottingham & that reads very nicely as that one then finished close to Chapter Seven who runs here but gives 12 pounds to the selection & that should put Border Legend past that one. Dance And Dance deserves respect even though heading the weights & if Belgian Bill could run closer to his best artificial surface form he'd have a chance but we like the chances of Border Legend at decent odds of 9/1.

3.30 Newbury - Greenham Stakes

Trainer Richard Hannon & his son-in-law jockey Richard Hughes have already tasted 2,000 Guineas trial success with the hugely impressive Toronado (tipped here) in the Craven at Newmarket on Thursday & they can follow up with a win in Newbury's trial with Olympic Glory.

(Olympic Glory can give Richard Hannon another Greenham winner)

The selection has already achieved a very high rating for a two year old of 117 & comes into his 3 year old season with very high hopes after only being beaten once last year, in the Coventry Stakes at Royal Ascot, by 2,000 Guineas favourite Dawn Approach. Already proven over a mile with a Group One win at Longchamp (doesn't carry any penalty for that) it looks like he only has one rival to face here with comparable form (although being lightly raced horses the others could improve) & that's Marco Botti's Moohaajim.

Moohaajim is actually only rated 1 pound inferior to Olympic Glory & won the Group Two Mill Reef Stakes in record time before only finding the exciting Reckless Abandon too much in the Middle Park Stakes next time. The issue with Moohaajim is that both of those aforementioned races were over 6 furlongs & the step up another furlong may not suit Botti's colt as much as dropping back the furlong will suit Olympic Glory. Moohaajim looks a real speedster & has the potential to turn into a top sprinter but 7 furlongs is a bit of a specialist distance. Hannon has good experience with getting horses to excel at this particular test, I'm thinking of our old favourite Paco Boy here (winner in 2008), & he can get his 6th Greenham winner with Olympic Glory at odds of 4/5 with Ladbrokes.

Selections:
Bolton Wanderers to beat Middlesbrough at 5/6 (BetVictor)
2.20 Newbury - Border Legend to win at 9/1 (General)
3.30 Newbury - Olympic Glory to win at 4/5 (Ladbrokes)

Toronado to leave Craven rivals in a spin

Newmarket's Craven meeting has its feature race on Thursday with the 2,000 Guineas trial the Craven Stakes seeing four already high class colts from top stables battle it out for a £34,000 winning prize & the chance to press their Classic claims. We're taking a look at the Craven plus the Wood Ditton stakes for unraced 3 year olds as we look for more steady profit.

2.20 Newmarket

The Wood Ditton is always an intriguing race as none of the horses have raced before (the conditions of the race have changed over the years) & are starting out over a mile at Newmarket's expansive track & the entries tend to come from the top stables - this means you need something relatively forward with the right temperament & a bit of class - easy to find eh?! The horse that we like is Mahmood Al Zarooni's Bustopher, an Elusive Quality colt out of a Storm Cat mare.

(Mahmood Al Zarooni can take the Wood Ditton with Bustopher)

Al Zarooni won with his very first runner of the British season with Improvisation winning her maiden impressively here on Wednesday, she already had the form in the book to do it (3rd behind useful Steeler) but it was an indication that Zarooni's horses have travelled back from Dubai well. Godolphin pioneered the idea of horses wintering in warmer climates than here in the UK & exploited it to outstanding effect well over a decade ago, improvements in training techniques have eroded the advantage they gained there but this year's miserable UK winter may see them get some early season joy with their string. Bustopher has leading Godolphin jockey Mikael Barzalona on board & should find the ground to his liking.

Chief danger may be Richard Hannon's Gerrards Cross as it's by smart sire Cape Cross & the stable have excellent strength in depth & will have sent a good one here, his half brother Perilously hasn't managed a win in 10 tries flat or jumps though. Take a chance on Bustopher at odds around 5/1, any market confidence should be noted.

4.05 Newmarket - Group 3 Craven Stakes

Only a small field for the Craven this year but all four horses have official ratings of 110 or more & all have won in pattern company before so this is a really nice race & could be a real indicator for the first classic of the year. Toronado is the one that has done the most already & Richard Hannon's High Chapparal colt carries a 3 pound penalty compared to the rest of the field for a Group Two win in the Champagne Stakes at Doncaster last September where he made all to defeat today's rival Dundonnell by half a length.

(Toronado can enhance his 2,000 Guineas claims)

Toronado was put away for the season after that Doncaster win & it could be argued that a 3 pound swing in the weights would put Dundonnell right up with his conqueror here but it looked like Toronado always had the better of things that day & his ability to be ridden from the front eliminates worries around this turning tactical.

Havana Gold was run 6 times last season & came up with four wins, once unseating Ryan Moore, & only losing when completing in a valuable sales race that Ghurair (running in the 2.55 today) took, that was impressive form but Richard Hughes takes Toronado's reins & his stablemate with just 3 runs looks less exposed. The Godolphin runner Tawhid won two races by some margin at the end of last year including the Group 3 Horris Hill stakes but the Invincible Spirit colt seemed to act particularly well on the very soft ground & won't get those conditions today, Saeed Bin Suroor's two runners on Wednesday finished 9th & 10th in two 10 runner races so he may need a couple of weeks to get firing.

Dundonnell is definitely a real danger, he was favourite when they met before & subsequently went on to start favourite & finish 4th in the Breeders' Cup Juvenile Turf so is clearly a very talented horse but today may not be quite the day to back him, he'll only be Roger Charlton's 8th runner of the season & taht suggests he's taking a patient approach with his nice string this year. Hannon is already firing & odds of 5/6 for a Toronado win look fair to us - take them.

Selections:
2.20 Newmarket - Bustopher to win at 5/1 (General)
4.05 Newmarket - Toronado to win at 5/6 (General)

Grand National 2013 - Get ready to bow for Balthazar King

The Grand National is THE annual betting event & it's always a great spectacle, we're taking a look at this year's renewal & seeing which horses really stand out from a value perspective. We love a bit of flat racing too & that's starting to get underway with the first two Classics of the season the 1,000 & 2,000 Guineas just a month away & we should be previewing that as well - keep up to date with our latest posts by following us on Twitter along with our other 1600+ followers @LikeBuyingMoney


Aintree 4.15 Saturday - The Grand National

(Balthazar King (winning at Cheltenham) knows how to jump unconventional fences & loves a stamina test - ideal for the Grand National)

You'll hear the same things every year about the National with plenty saying it's a lottery & anything could win but although we've seen three winners at 33/1 or bigger in the last 6 years the overall trend is that horses near the top of the market tend to go well & in general you want a horse aged between 9 & 10 although the odd 12 year old can win.

The horse that really interests us here is Balthazar King - a horse that hasn't competed at any distances less than 2m7f for the past three years & has undertaken some big time stamina tests over unusual obstacles in three of his last four runs when taking part in 3m7f chases on Cheltenham's cross country course. Of course the slopes & fences on that cross country course aren't Grand National fences but they do show Balthazar King can cope with a jumping challenge & is improving (fell on his first try over them but finished 1st & then 2nd) the next two times along with a win on Cheltenham's standard course in that four race sequence too.

Aintree is a far flatter track than Cheltenham & quite a different test but this race requires stamina & Balthazar King has that in abundance, with 10 stone 12 pounds on his back in this race compared to 11-8 last time this will feel easy in comparison for the 9 year old gelding, he goes well fresh too which eases any worries about 141 days off the track. The weights for the race were specially framed some time ago & we reckon the handicapper would like Balthazar King to carry a little more weight if he could reassess the field today, at odds of 20/1 Balthazar King looks a great value bet.

(Cappa Bleu - high class & very rarely out of the frame)

We were keen on the chances of Cappa Bleu last year & Evan Williams' horse is surely in with a top chance again this time especially when you see that Seabass is ahead of him in the market but only finished one place ahead last time & is now giving Cappa Bleu 9 pounds of weight compared to 2 in 2012. Cappa Bleu is very lightly raced for an 11 year old with just 11 runs under rules but has a Cheltenham Festival win (the Foxhunters) & has finished placed in 8 of the 9 races he's finished (fallen once in the Hennessy & pulled up once over hurdles at the 2010 Cheltenham Festival). With such consistency & the way he travelled around the course last year we've got to have Cappa Bleu as one of our runners at odds of 12/1, if Paul Moloney doesn't give him such a tender ride this time he'll be bang there near the finish.

Other horses to respect include: Imperial Commander - winner of the 2010 Gold Cup; Chicago Grey - another who looks laced with stamina; likely favourite On His Own - representing the powerful Willie Mullins & Ruby Walsh trainer-jockey partnership; & as outsiders we'd suggest Viking Blond (off a feather weight) & Joncol - a two-time Grade One winner both have a live chance of placing.

Selections:
Balthazar King each way at 20/1 (Ladbrokes & Coral)
Cappa Bleu each way at 12/1 (Coral & William Hill)

African Story can Rule the World

With Saturday's football fixtures coming off an international break it seems pudent to try to avoid some potentially tricky ties & instead we're taking a look at some horse racing on the flat including the world's richest race, the Dubai World Cup. We should be back looking at the football next week plus Aintree's Grand National meeting including the main event itself. Keep up to date by following us on Twitter @LikeBuyingMoney by finding us there or clicking the Follow button at the top of the page.

6.05 Meydan - Dubai World Cup

This year's Dubai World Cup is an intriguing one as we have last year's impressive winner for Godolphin Monterosso trying to follow up, while the owners have the favourite in the form of Hunter's Light & another strong contender in last year's impressive Godolphin Mile winner African Story whilst being taken on by some top international challengers including 2011 Kentucky Derby winner Animal Kingdom.

(African Story can use his miler pace to win the Dubai World Cup)

2012 victor Monterosso looks as good a place as any to start as the horse also placed 3rd in the 2011 running showing his liking for the race conditions, unfortunately this son of Dubawi has run very poorly in his only two runs since, coming up woefully short in the Coral Eclipse won by Nathaniel & then slammed on his comeback here when only 9th in his prep race 3 weeks ago. Monterosso has bounced back before & belied odds of 20/1 to win last year but we think the race may have just about finished him off & it looks like the winner of his last race, Hunter's Light, looks more of a contender for Godolphin this time. Hunter's Light had only ever looked a smart listed race performer up until the 2nd half of last season when he went on to win a Group 3 at Haydock impressively then finished a distant 2nd to the top notch 10 furlong performer Cirrus Des Aigles. This season Hunter's Light has appeared the most impressive performer at the Meydan carnival at this distance on the Tapeta surface with solid & comfortable wins against good opposition at 9 & 10 furlongs but this is surely a step up & odds around 100/30 seem short enough for us as the horse doesn't exude star quality.

The two big American challengers look to be Animal Kingdom & super-mare Royal Delta - a two-time Breeders' Cup Ladies Classic winner. Animal Kingdom seems to be able to handle any type of surface with wins at a high level on turf & dirt & his trainer Graham Motion reckons he may even be at his best on this Tapeta all-weather surface. Animal Kingdom has only finished out of the first two on one occasion, when clipping heels in the final leg of the Triple Crown, the Belmont, & he looked booked for at least a place before landing an unfavourable 2nd to outside draw & that could prove his undoing. Royal Delta is probably the more exciting prospect as she bids to become the first female horse to win the race & she certainly has top class form plus has seen plenty of racing so should be battle-hardened but it is a different prospect taking on top class colts & she may just be brushed off in the straight.

The horse we like is African Story who looks a true Tapeta specialist & has been outstanding on the surface since joining Saeed Bin Suroor from french master-trainer Andre Fabre, only losing on the surface when hampered in his 2nd race at Meydan in 2012. After winning the Godolphin Mile (1st race on card) last year he was tried in the Champions Mile at Hong Kong but could only finish 6th, that's a very different test though & he won impressively on his comeback 3 weeks ago after 307 days off the track. African Story has a high cruising speed & sharp turn of foot, this is his first try at the distance but if Kieron Fallon can keep him covered up & deliver him with a late rattle odds of 9/1 could be made to look silly.

1.10 Meydan - Godolphin Mile

(Soft Falling Rain can leave his older rivals strung out behind & make it 7 wins from 7)

In the first thorough-bred race on the card we can't see past Mike De Kock's Soft Falling Rain at odds of 7/2, the South African colt has won all 6 of his races, proving to be the top younger horse in SA & then coming here to win his two starts impressively. That 2nd win was the UAE 2000 Guineas & he started a warm 8/11 favourite & won like that too, the shortest priced rivals today are Penitent & Surfer at odds around 9/1. Penitent is a solid group race performer but lacks the kind of star qulaity you'd hope would be on show on World Cup night & Surfer has been beaten in his last two races by Hunter's Light at slightly further distances, he'll have to markedly quicker here at 8 furlongs but does have the draw to attempt a front running performance if they choose that tactic.

2.20 Kempton - Magnolia Stakes

(Robin Hoods Bay looks a 'steal' at 11/4)

Back in the UK we're taking a look at a bit more all-weather action as the potentially tacky ground worries us at Doncaster (we do have a liking for Captain Ramius in the Cammidge & Strictly Silver in the Lincoln though). Kempton has a nice Listed race with 7 runners all rated at 95 or above & we like the look of Robin Hoods Bay to gain a victory after finishing 2nd in the Winter Derby two weeks ago. That run was the culmination of a considerable bit of improvement for Ed Vaughan's son of Derby winner Motivator who'd previously won handicaps off of 92 & then 95 at Lingfield & Kempton respectively. In the first of those wins Robin Hoods Bay gave weight & a beating to Strictly Silver & that subsequently won very nicely in the Lincoln Trial at Wolverhampton, the Winter Derby run was very good too & it was no disgrace losing to Faraaj as that horse looks very much on the upgrade & could make a good group race horse. Today's rivals Cai Shen & Tinshu  were behind at Lingfield & there's no reason they shouldn't be again, ex-French trained Genzy does look a danger though as that one finished only a length behind Faraaj on its seasonal debut & has the potential to improve for that run. Strictly on form Robin Hoods Bay should have the beating of Genzy though as it finished closer to Faraaj & wasn't receiving weight like Genzy, odds of 11/4 for a Robin Hoods Bay could mean we're robbing from the rich bookies in this one!

Selections:
1.10 Meydan - Soft Falling Rain at 7/2 (General)
2.20 Kempton - Robin Hoods Bay at 11/4 (Bet365, Paddy Power & William Hill)
6.05 Meydan - African Story at 9/1 (Various)

View some Oil Painting at Glorious Goodwood

Glorious Goodwood is here & whilst Frankel in the Sussex Stakes on Wednesday is the big draw there are still some good bets to be had on day one of the meeting & a horse that we really like is John Gosden's Michelangelo & the Galileo colt can continue Gosden's fine season by winning the Gordon Stakes at 2.35.

(Michelangelo doesn't have Donatello et al holding him back any longer....)

Michelangelo actually has to turn form around with Frankel's brother Noble Mission here as he finished 3rd to that one on debut, Noble Mission was having his 3rd run there though & it was a great performance from Michelangelo considering it was a Listed race & being his first time out. The extra two furlongs today should also help as he looks totally stamina laden, it seems that last time he raced over 10 furlongs just because the sales race prize was too valuable to turn down & really he looks a middle distance horse & maybe even a St Leger type. Gosden has two other horses with chances in the Leger & we think if Michelangelo runs well enough here there is just the possibility they may start to angle for a tilt at the Arc or maybe even the Breeders' Cup Turf over 1m4f as well. Noble Mission is a good marker but with normal improvement Michelangelo should go past & several of the others don't look near his standard.

Girolamo finished 3rd in the German Derby behind the very smart Pastorious but may want softer ground, he deserves respect though & Godolphin run the thoroughly unexposed Encke but you'd think that one would need to find a stone or more improvement on anything its done so far. We're slightly surprised Michelangelo isn't shorter than 11/8 & that price should be bet, this is one of the most exciting horses in training & could blow this lot away for the in form Buick & Gosden combination.

(Charlie Hills has started to get his two year olds flying)

The maiden race at 4.15 looks a really interesting contest & we think the chances of African Oil may be underestimated from the early prices we've seen. Charlie Hills has had two potentially smart two year old winners first time out in the past week in Kerbaaj & the particularly taking Ebn Arab (one to follow for sure) & he has African Oil here & this one has an entry in the Group Two Champagne Stakes so must have shown something at home. African Oil was foaled as early as is possible with a 1st January date & he could be quite physically forward with half the year's sun on his back, at odds of 14/1 he's the one to be on for the win. Of the horses to have run so far Huntsman's Close has shown most promise after being headed close home at Yarmouth but any of them would have to step up to take this £11,321 prize & we'll stick with the potential of the newcomer.

Selections:

Goodwood 2.35 - Michelangelo to win at 11/8 (general)

Goodwood 4.15 - African Oil to win at odds of 14/1 or bigger

Camelot a worthy Derby favourite

The most famous flat race in the world is upon us & this year's Epsom Derby sees a potential superstar in the form of Camelot descend upon the race & with Aidan O'Brien having trained the winners of all three of the Classics so far it'll take a brave punter to back against him making it 4 from 4 here. We've got the Derby covered plus the supporting 5 furlong Dash & a punt from Haydock's 7 furlong Group 3 race too, hopefully we can keep up the good tipping that has seen 4 of our last 5 selections be successful.

(Camelot looks the class act in the Derby field)

Camelot won the 2,000 Guineas, getting up late on & then holding the French raider French Fifteen with the pair over two lengths clear of the field, that form in itself is the best on offer & having won the key two year old Derby trial in the Racing Post Trophy he's already two Group One wins from just 3 starts & he can add a 3rd here. The somewhat sticky ground at Newmarket probably didn't help Camelot & although ridden from the rear we feel he'd have won more convincingly if travelling a bit closer to the pace as he won twice over a mile as a two year old & is by Montjeu so should have the right amount of stamina for the Derby trip. Andrew Balding's Bonfire looks like starting as 2nd favourite but we were not impressed at all with the win in the Dante, he only got up late to beat Ektihaam & that horse would be way out in the betting if running here. Bonfire did behave very badly at York though & if settling better he could show an improved level of form & trainer Andrew Balding is in decent form though with 3 winners from his last 5 runners. Main Sequence is the other unbeaten horse in the race but his wins have been in races some way below this level & his Lingfield Derby Trial win unfortunately took place on the polytrack & it's difficult to see how that form will translate to quickish ground on Epsom's undulations. Lucarno is beautifully bred, as a full brother to Lucarno, but was getting 5 pounds off of Noble Mission & only just beat that one at Newmarket last time, today's rival Rugged Cross was some way behind & looks a no hoper. We reckon the biggest risk to Camelot could come from stablemate Astrology who definitely has the stamina & has already won (by some margin) at a tricky track when taking Chester's Dee Stakes. Astrology could threaten but Camelot is the one to be on & 4/6 looks fair enough as a price seeing as none of the other rivals look like classic winners.

(Bear Behind is speedy & can travel at the front the whole way in the Dash)

Epsom's 5 furlong track is the quickest in the world as the horses race downhill all the way & being able to travel at a high pace is crucial to winning & Bear Behind has that quality & plenty of nice form to go with it. Tom Dascombe's colt is one of only two 3 year olds in the race so is open to more improvement than many of his rivals here & is drawn up against the stands rail which will help keep him straight on the track, he's regularly quick out of the stalls & with a sharp start here he'll be tough to beat. Bear Behind beat Hamish McGonagal earlier in the year but had the race somewhat harshly taken away for interference & then only failed by a neck to beat the speedy Ballesteros when giving it 6 pounds & they were 11 lengths clear of the pack, that was on heavy ground & it will be very different conditions here. Last year's winner Captain Dunne deserves respect & we've always liked Sohraab but Bear Behind is the one to get on at odds of 8/1, his style of racing is perfect for the race & his rivals might just not be able to reel him in from the front.

(Red Jazz will prove a cut above his Haydock rivals)

In Haydock's 7 furlong Group 3 race we can't see past Red Jazz, Charlie Hills' runner is joint top rated with Royal Rock but gets 3 pounds off of that one & is almost certainly a better horse anyway. Royal Rock also hasn't raced over as far as this for the past 5 years & there have to be stamina questions, this is Red Jazz's optimum trip & he can get further so Michael Hills may make plenty of use of his ride to draw the sting out of his rivals. Majestic Myles is nice enough but was easily beaten by Red Jazz last time & we wouldn't be surprised to see Red Jazz go off shorter than 7/4 - get on this good thing!

Selections:

Haydock 2.35 - Red Jazz to win at 7/4

Epsom 3.15 - Bear Behind to win at 8/1

Epsom 4.00 - Camelot to win at 4/6

Ryan Moore will be smiling & blowing Kisses on Oaks day

The Oaks is the premier Fillies Classic & takes place at Epsom & Aidan O'Brien looks to be running a hatful as he attempts to keep his English Classic clean sweep going after victories in the 1,000 & 2,000 Guineas, there are some top UK based trainers looking to take him on though & it could be a great race. We're taking a look at the big race plus the Group 3 Diomed Stakes as we look to pick up from last weekend with 3 winning bets from 4 (advised at 13/8, 100/30 & a double at a shade above 5/1).

(If allowed to have a run Kissed could use her stamina & turn of foot to good effect in the Oaks)

With 6 runners declared Aidan O'Brien has nearly half of the field for the Guineas & his leading hopes look to be 1,000 Guineas third Maybe & unbeaten, two time Navan winner Kissed, O'Brien has said that the latter only runs if there is some ease in the ground but if she does then she's our idea of the winner. Kissed only had one run in 2011 but she won her 17 runner maiden in pretty good style & when she turned out at the end of April in the Listed Salsabil stakes she looked some filly, destroying the 5 runner field & looking like she had all the stamina needed for the 12 furlong trip here. Stamina was always unlikely to be an issue for Kissed as she's by Galileo, out of a Darshaan mare (she's actually a 3/4 sister to last year's Derby winner Pour Moi). She did look really at home on the soft ground at Navan though & if it were to get quick here it's understandable if she wasn't to run, however there has been some watering at Epsom & it was a little cooler on Thursday with the chance of some light showers in the night so she could get the tiny bit of cut wanted, if she does then Ryan Moore is the man to have aboard as he'll deliver her charge early enough to get these on the stretch in the tough Epsom straight. 

Maybe was a hot favourite for the Guineas & we were keen on her chances after an outstanding juvenile year but the race didn't turn out as planned with stablemate & outsider Homecoming Queen winning by a record margin, there have to be some doubts about the validity of that form & that was held up by the winner only coming in 4th in a pretty average looking Irish 1,000. Joseph O'Brien gets the mount suggesting she is the first string but we have seen plenty of Ballydoyle second strings win good races & we aren't enthusiastic about the English Guineas form, that means we also don't like the Fugue at the available prices. The Fugue came 4th in the Guineas, a little behind Maybe, but she was impressive in the Musidora at York & beat another O'Brien horse, Twirl, with some authority. Twirl however would be some way down the pecking order at Ballydoyle pecking order having only won a maiden & may just have been running in the Musidora as it looked a weak option. Vow is another unbeaten filly but again looks a little on the short side as she doesn't seem to have beaten anything of note & the Lingfield Oaks Trial win was only on the polytrack, although it was pretty nice how she quickened up & she shad one of today's rivals, Colima, over 3 lengths behind. Godolphin's Kailani looks a very nice type but being by Monsun she may want soft ground even more than Kissed & a Leger tilt later in the year could be on the cards for this stamina laden type. The best odds on offer are for Kissed at 7/1 in general & 15/2 with William Hill, back her & if she does run she should go off a couple of points shorter.

(Side Glance needs to bounce back from a couple of poor runs but can do in the Diomed)

Worthadd looks like being a pretty short priced favourite for the one mile Diomed & with a 2nd place in a Group One (Newbury's 2011 Lockinge stakes) & an easy win in a Group Two in Germany last time it's understandable but that win does mean carrying a penalty & Side Glance could be a tough foe if coming back to last summer's form. Side Glance's seasonal debut run was pretty disappointing, only coming in 5th but the first & second there went on to fill the same places in the Group Two Sandown Mile. On the polytrack last time Side Glance only came 3rd but was the only horse near the front to end up close with both Sri Putra & Saamidd coming from way off the pace. If you go back to 2011 Side Glance won 2 Listed races & then a Group 3 at Salisbury all over this distance in a span of 4 races & he could just be coming into some form now, he was eased a little at Kempton when the hold up horses sped past in the latter stages & it wasn't a bad run really (Sri Putra's previous run had been in the Champion Stakes). At odds of 4/1 with Skybet Side Glance is the value alternative to Worthadd as he gets 3 pounds off that rival.

Selections:

2.50 Epsom - Side Glance to win at 4/1 (Skybet)

4.05 Epsom - Kissed to win at 15/2 (William Hill)

Take a Breath of Sea air at Haydock & Goodwood

Saturday sees a very full day of racing in the UK & also a Classic day in Ireland with their 2,000 Guineas - there looks to be some decent bets available on the day & we'll try & give them to you below. If you aren't already you can follow us on Twitter @LikeBuyingMoney by clicking the follow button above or finding us on there, we'll keep you up to date with our latest posts & answer questions you have for us. It's worth checking back here too, we'll soon have Euro 2012 previews up with analysis of each group, team bets, player bets, group bets & our fancies for outright victory. As ever good luck!

(Bated Breath (left) was always the 'nearly horse' last year but can come good in Haydock's Temple Stakes)

Haydock's Group 2 Temple Stakes is the premier early season sprint race before Royal Ascot & we look like having a decent field with 13 runners & plenty of strength in depth, we like the look of Bated Breath, who is a true Group One performer, to take the prize. Roger Charlton's charge finished close 2nds in three Group One's in 2011 & they were some of the best sprints around, finishing up behind Dream Ahead (& giving an age related weight allowance to that rival) twice, in the July Cup & here in the Betfred Sprint stakes in September. That form behind Dream Ahead is excellent as that rival went on to win the Prix de la Foret at Longchamp, beating the wonderful Goldikova & Dream Ahead was the joint highest rated two year old in Europe along with Frankel! The worries around Bated Breath are that he only finished 10th on his reappearance last year but that was a very rough race for the colt with him being repeatedly hit by other horses, the other concern was a poor run when going over 5 furlongs for the only time last year. That minimum distance race was at York on softish ground & it may well have been a bit of a freak result with the first 5 home being priced 20/1, 28/1, 12/1, 20/1 & 14/1. Bated Breath looks to have the cruising speed for the distance & with connections sounding pretty bullish he's worth backing at decent odds of 100/30. Last year's winner Sole Power looks like being a strong challenger & he's a previous Group One winner too, when taking the Nunthorpe at odds of 100/1, he's more of a specialist 5 furlong horse but he has only won once in his last 10 & we're happy to stick with our pick.

(Sea Moon is another running in Khalid Abdullah's famous colours)

Similarly to Bated Breath, Sea Moon was a horse that was a little unlucky last year after getting bumped around plenty when favourite for the St Leger & only finding a resurgent St Nicholas Abbey to good in the Breeders Cup Turf, those were races right at the top of the tree though & he should take Goodwood's Tapster Stakes with consumate ease. Running without a penalty Sea Moon has scared off the opposition for this one, plenty were entered earlier in the week but only three rivals take him on here & the closest on ratings, Dandino, is a full 11 pounds behind. The mark of 121 that Sea Moon has avhieved can almost certainly be bettered & this race is just a stepping stone to all of the best middle distance races this year, with the Coronation Cup up next & maybe culminating in a tilt at the Arc. Odds of 4/9 might scare some off of backing Sea Moon but stick it in a double with our first selection Bated Breath & boost the odds up over 5/1, he's as close to a racing certainty as Frankel was last week as far as we're concerned.

(Alanza can make a successful return under regular jockey Johnny Murtagh at the Curragh)

After going for a couple of Khalid Abdullah owned horses so far we're going to take on his Group One winning Emulous with John Oxx's nice filly Alanza, she showed some very smart form once stepped up from 6 furlongs last year & receives a couple of pounds from Emulous here. Both Emulous & Alanza are making their seasonal debuts but so do a couple of today's rivals & the only other horse we can see in the race close to their level is Law Of The Range, being sent over from the UK by Marco Botti, it's a smart move from Botti as this would be the day they may be vulnerable but his charge hasn't been too impressive so far this year finishing a distant 6th behind Izzi Top last time. Alanza started at just 4/1 when stepping up to Group One company in the Sun Chariot at the end of last year but we think Murtagh took her to the wrong side of the track that day & she wasn't given too hard a ride in the final furlong once her chance was gone. The way Alanza has to be ridden makes her a tricky type as she seems to need to be delivered late but Murtagh's pretty good at that & she's got a very nice turn of foot, her official rating of 109 probably underrates her slightly as she beat Chachamaidee well enough last year & that one was impressive last time out & is rated 113. Emulous has won plenty of her races (6 of 10) but it was her last in a Group One that stands out a mile from the rest of her form, slamming two good Coolmore horses in Together & Misty For Me. Together went on to finish just behind Alanza at Newmarket so on Emulous's last run she does have an edge on form but the two pounds she gives away could be crucial & that piece of form looks a little out of place to us, she only finished 6th on her comeback last year & we like Alanza more at odds of 5/2.

In the Irish 2,000 Guineas the horse that interests us is another Oxx inmate in Takar at odds of 6/1 but we can't confidently recommend a bet at short enough odds of 6/1, the Oratario colt has only raced three times but showed a nice turn of foot in the final 100 yards last time & could take this if the race sets up nicely for him to be delivered off the pace.

Selections:
3.00 Haydock - Bated Breath to win at 100/30 (William Hill)
4.25 Goodwood - Sea Moon to win at 4/9 in a double with Bated Breath (pays £62.59 to a £10 stake)
3.50 Curragh - Alanza to win at odds of 5/2 (general)

Michelangelo is a Party Dude!

Ahhh a lovely few days break from the blog for us & just as well as Chelsea's dramatic comeback in the Champions League ruined what had, for a few minutes, looked like a winning 90 minutes bet on Bayern. It didn't ruin a good day at Newbury though where we got to see the incomparable Frankel up close in the flesh, his cruising speed & acceleration was incredibly impressive in the Lockinge & for any racing fan he's well worth seeing with your own eyes. We're back looking at this Friday's racing at Goodwood, in suitably glorious weather & the Listed Cocked Hat Stakes in particular.

(Michelangelo's connections won the St Leger with Masked Marvel (above) last year, can he prove to be in that league?)

The Cocked Hat Stakes has seen a name change & a couple of distance changes over time & its fair share of very good horses winning it including Dubai Millennium & Rewilding for Godolphin & last year's St Leger hero Masked Marvel for trainer John Gosden. Gosden has a likely type in the race this year with the once raced Michelangelo who runs in the same colours as the aforementioned Masked Marvel, he's a very nicely bred type with plenty of stamina in his pedigree & is likely to come on a bundle for his hugely promising debut run. Michelangelo was started out at Listed level & ran the twice raced, full brother to Frankel, Noble Mission to about 3 quarters of a length, finishing 3rd even though running very green in the early stages of that Newmarket race. Noble Mission has gone on to show that form to be solid enough by only just failing to give another very well bred inmate of Gosden's 5 pounds in another Listed Newmarket race, with normal improvement Michelangelo is at the least right in the mix for any decent Listed race & is arguably the pick on form already.

Fans of Expense Claim would argue that he has the stronger credentials with three handicap wins on the bounce at Kempton, Salisbury & then impressively off a mark of 85 at Newbury last week & he deserves this step up in class. It might pay to stick with an in form type like Expense Claim & he might prove up to this level & pick up a good race another day but we reckon Michelangelo might just be a couple of cuts above Listed level. Charlie Hills sends Perennial to contest this & this Motivator colt made a very nice start to his career in 2011 winning a 15 runner maiden & then finishing runner up in a Group 3, that Group 3 run didn't look hugely strong at the time but the 3rd, Astrology, came back this year to win Chester's Dee stakes in storming fashion (although it looked a somewhat weak renewal with just 4 runners). Last year's form would put Perennial in the mix here but a poor comeback run when favourite for the Feilden & only finishing a remote 6th tempers enthusiasm, Gosden's other runner here, Jungle Beat, finished 5th that day & looks to be second string to Michelangelo here. Michelangelo could prove very very smart & we wouldn't put a St Leger bid beyond him, this step up to 1 mile 3 furlongs will be in his favour & now with racecourse experience behind him he should power past these rivals & odds of 13/8 look worth taking.

(Frankel in the parade ring at Newbury before his striking Lockinge win)

Selection:
3.45 Goodwood - Michelangelo to win at 13/8 (William Hill)

Will Frankel win by Lengths in the Lockinge?

On Saturday we get to see Britain's first Group One race of the year for older horses with the Lockinge & that means the return of the wonder horse Frankel, Sir Henry Cecil's star swept all before him in his classic year  now bids to prove himself over again at 4. We've taken a look at the big race plus the supporting card at Newbury to find some decent bets on a massive day of sport that includes the Champions League final & Championship Playoff final.

(Frankel makes his comeback in the Lockinge & should win, but by how far?)

Frankel returns running over a mile again in the Lockinge & he was imperious at the distance last year, beating top rivals with ease, although the plan is to step in distance later in the year it looks implausible that any of today's rivals will be able to cope with his high cruising speed & impressive turn of foot. There are however a few doubts regarding the Galileo colt as he suffered what was described as a minor setback in training & his reappearance in this race was in doubt for a time. It also remains to be seen whether he's trained on - we've seen classic winners return as 4 year olds a few times over the last decade & often they've not lived up to their 3 year old careers, Frankel isn't a North Light or Workforce though. Excelebration is probably Frankel's chief rival here, with excellent form last year, winning on every occasion he didn't face Frankel but taking a beating 3 times against the monster. Excelebration could potentially have been last year's dominant miler if it hadn't been for Frankel & has now switched from Marco Botti to master trainer Aidan O'Brien & has the benefit of a run under his belt winning at the Curragh in style. Richard Hannon runs two in Strong Suit & Dubawi Gold but he hasn't really had the great start to the season he usually has & they both look up against it, Strong Suit's form with give in the ground really doesn't inspire. With pacemakers for both Frankel & Excelebration the race could be interesting from a tactical perspective & there are some shortish odds around Frankel winning by big distances but we reckon it might be slightly tougher on his seasonal debut & backing Frankel to win by 3 lengths or under with Totesport at 13/8 is the best bet.

(Bertiewhittle is a horse on the upgrade & can take the 6 furlong handicap)

The 2.30 looks like a really competitive handicap, especially with only 15 runners, one short of most bookmakers paying on 4 places but the trick is to find a horse with the potential to outrun its current mark & Bertiewhittle could be the one to do that here. Most of the runners look thoroughly exposed with only three 4 year olds taking their chance: Bertiewhittle, Whaileyy & Pabusar. Pabusar has competed in Listed or better company on 5 of his 11 runs, including an underwhelming comeback in the Cammidge at Doncaster & his handicap mark is probably staying a little high at the moment for him to win. Whaileyy looks to be fancied according to the betting but we've reservations for a horse that hasn't appeared to act on ground with a bit of juice in it before & with its improved form this year all being on the all weather, he'll need to prove that form is carried across to the turf before we take a chance. Bertiewhittle is by Bahamian Bounty so underfoot give shouldn't pose a problem & he won pretty impressively at Chester on soft ground to confirm that, with 9 finishes in the first 3 places from 15 runs he's pretty consistent. Although Bertiewhittle could only finish 15th of 24 on his comeback that was a pretty hot Newmarket handicap & he wasn't too far away at the end & endured a somewhat troubled passage, it should put the gelding spot on for this race. Mac's Power is relatively short in the market & maybe that's because Kieren Fallon is riding, nearly all his form comes on quicker ground than this & we're happy to swerve this one. Bertiewhittle has had his comeback run, is a young & improving sort & will handle conditions, odds of 7/1 are very reasonable & should be taken.

Selections:
Newbury 2.30 - Bertiewhittle to win at 7/1 (general)
Newbury 3.40 - Frankel to win by 3 lengths & under at 13/8 (Totesport)

Trials & Cape Tribulation at York

Thursday sees York's Dante meeting's signature race & it has traditionally been a great trial for the Derby & there are a few likely types this time around, we're taking a look at the big race & some of the supporting card to find the value on offer.

(Fencing can prove the 2,000 Guineas form to be the strongest around & take the Dante)

Fencing finished 6th in the 2,000 Guineas behind this year's leading Derby contender Camelot & travelled really well in that race before fading late on & that can be excused as it was his seasonal debut. We've been impressed with Fencing ever since catching our eye on his maiden race & that impression was confirmed with an impressive Listed race win on just its second start, after that the Racing Post Trophy & 2,000 Guineas were top races & there's little shame in failing behind Camelot. Fencing has a nice American pedigree & will appreciate the drying ground at the track. Trainer John Gosden knows how to place a horse & has already had a great start to the meeting with his two runners winning on Wednesday (Gatewood & The Fugue), it looks like Gosden has always thought this distance should suit as he's never competed over less than 7 furlongs even as a juvenile. Aidan O'Brien's runners always have to be respected, especially with the form they are in at the moment & the once raced Ernest Hemingway is a danger, having won his maiden by 10 lengths & being out of a very good racemare in Cassydora. Mandaean was a Group One winner in France with Andre Fabre & now joins the Godolphin operation but these conditions are much quicker & that could prove tough on his first race of the season. Bonfire has only raced twice, winning impressively on debut & then coming 3rd in a French Group One close up behind 2,000 Guineas runner up French Fifteen, there's little value in the current odds available on Bonfire though & we'd rather stick with ones that have had a run in 2012. Odds of 6/1 for Fencing look good for a horse that has twice finished close to Camelot & should find these conditions to suit - get on.

(Cape Tribulation has been competing over hurdles but can make a successful return to the flat)

Trainer Malcolm Jefferson had a great end to the jumps season & hurdler Cape Tribulation was a major part of that, winning the always ultra competitive Pertemps final at Cheltenham & then off a high mark of 150 in a Grade 3 handicap at Aintree. Cape Tribulation returns to the flat off a mark 5 pounds lower than when last competing under the code but is right at the top of its game at the moment. We've been impressed with the way Cape Tribulation has travelled in its hurdle races & that will be a key attribute here, going that little bit quicker on the flat, although he'll be running off of top weight of 9-12 that is a full two stone less than when winning at Aintree & if he can cope carrying that kind of weight, 28 pounds less will help him travel even better. Cloudy Spirit is another nice hurdler & connections were confident enough to send her in against the outstanding Quevega at Cheltenham, where she finished 6th, she's a danger but we're happy to stick with Cape Tribulation at decent odds of 4/1.

Selections:

2.30 York - Fencing to win at 6/1 (various)

4.45 York - Cape Tribulation to win at 4/1 (various)

Hoof It can be Grand Old Duke of York

York's Dante meeting is upon us & it looks to be as competitive & classy as usual, Wednesday sees the Group Two Duke of York stakes as the major race & we've taken a look at it & the following race on the card to come up with a couple of likely money making picks. If you aren't already you can follow us on Twitter @LikeBuyingMoney by finding us on there or clicking the Follow button at the top of the page - it's a great way to keep up with our latest posts & join in with the sports & betting conversations.

(Hoof It - one of the most popular horses in training & could take some stopping in the Duke of York)

The Group Two 6 furlong Duke of York Stakes is one of the best sprint races this side of Royal Ascot & some high class sorts have taken it in the past so we're looking for a proven pattern race performer here & the one fitting the bill is Mick Easterby's Hoof It. Last seen finishing a close up & somewhat unlucky 3rd in the Group One Betfred Sprint Cup at Haydock, Hoof It is a three time winner here & won at the meeting on his seasonal debut last year, taking a 20 runner handicap off a mark of 99. Hoof It continued to improve through the season, winning twice more, again at York & then following up under a penalty in the ultra competitive Stewards Cup. Hoof It's only failures seemed slightly unfortunate with him being taken to the front slightly too soon in the Wokingham & then racing too far away from the favoured ground in the Nunthorpe & was carried left at Haydock. Most of Hoof It's form has come on better ground but he is by Monsieur Bond who sires plenty of mud lovers & he also took this race back in 2004, Hoof It can follow in his hoof steps & odds of 7/2 look value for a true Group One horse. Mayson is improving rapidly & is aiming to make the step up after winning a Listed & then Group 3 race in his last two, although this is considerably stronger & The Cheka easily beat him in the Cammidge at the end of March. Society Rock goes unpenalised for a Group One success in the Jubilee Stakes at Royal Ascot but was behind Hoof It at Haydock last year & we reckon the big horse will confirm that form.

(Granston goes exceptionally well fresh & is making his seasonal debut in the 3.35)

The open betting in the 3.35 suggests a really tricky betting event but we reckon Granston at odds of 20/1 is a solid proposition as he looks to continue a fine run of seasonal debuts. James Bethell's grey is now an 11 year old but he continues to perform at a high level & last year hit his joint highest handicap rating so looks to still be enjoying things. From 2006 Granston's seasonal turf debut from reads 2-12-1-2-2-1 & although he looks to be slightly better on faster ground he was only just touched off in a class 3 at Haydock off a 3 pound higher mark on good to soft ground last June, he's only tackled class 4 opposition in two of his last 23 runs & has a win & a 2nd to show for it, the current odds on offer are underrating his chances. Vasily & The Fun Crusher are wholly unexposed & with improvement could prove big dangers whilst Eagle Rock has turned into a decent hurdler, finishing 4th in the Grade One novice race at Aintree, & if transferring that back to the flat could run a nice race. There are plenty of ifs & maybes in the race but we've seen year after year that Granston is a top performer on his first race back & is running off a reasonable mark, time may catch up with the old boy at some point but until we see it we'll stay by his side.

Selections:
York 3.00 - Hoof It to win at 7/2 (general)
York 3.35 - Granston each way at 20/1 (various)

Yes - the Falcon does have Large Talons

We're delighted the flat season is finally beginning & it's great that the first fixture is back home at Doncaster & the tremendous Lincoln handicap rather than like in 2011 where the first turf fixture of the year was at Leicester. As well as the beginning of the UK flat racing season there is the world's richest horse race with the Dubai World Cup at Meydan & Kempton has some high class action on the all weather too. We've looked at the meetings & come up with some selections that should offer up some decent value.

(Smart Falcon can rule in the Dubai World Cup)

The Dubai World Cup sees Aidan O'Brien's So You Think as the current favourite but a European based trainer has never managed a winner in the race, unless you count Godolphin's Saeed Bin Suroor who is based in Dubai for half of the year, & there is good reason even without that statistic to think that odds of 5/2 offer no value at all. The ex-Antipodean champion picked up three Group One's last year but they were some of the weakest we've seen, winning one at 1/7 & another at 4/6, the other win in the Eclipse was decent but conditions far suited So You Think compared to 2010 Derby winner Workforce & he didn't real give that form a boost at all. So You Think then lost his next three, albeit in the very best races around, but maybe that showed his true level of form, a Group One performer but not an elite Group One winner & it tends to be top horses winning this race. We reckon that the Japanese horse Smart Falcon offers a much better bet at odds of 13/2 with Ladbrokes. The horse is a winning machine with 19 wins from 26 runs & horses from Japan have consistently proven they are right up with the top Europeans & jockey Yutaka Take could try & make all on his mount in a bid to emulate Victoire Pisa's success last year. Godolphin always have to be respected as Sheikh Mohamed loves to win this race that is his brainchild, Mahmood Al Zarooni trains their best chance in Capponi & his thrashing of good yardstick Silver Pond here last time warrants respect.

Elesewhere on the Meydan card the best bet of the day looks to be in the first thoroughbred race of the day as Bin Suroor's African Story looks a horse on the upgrade & this acquisition that switched from Andre Fabre at the end of last year can take the Godolphin Mile & we reckon in some style too. He gave some good rivals, including the reopposing 2nd Snaffy, a real beating last time & also won on his UAE debut. Although African Story lost the next time that was under the jockeyship of Mikael Barzalona & he's got Frankie Dettori on board today as he was for both of those wins. We really like the 2nd favourite Western Diplomat & backed him heavily in a couple of races at the backend of last season but African Story is a cut above & the current price of 7/4 surely won't be available come the time of the race.

(Light From Mars (the grey) could provide a value winner in the Lincoln)

Back in the UK & we have to pick a selection for the flat season's traditional curtain raiser in the Lincoln Handicap, although we were surprised to see just three 4 year olds in the lineup considering the success that age group has achieved in the race. Trainer John Quinn has won the race before with Blythe Knight in 2006 & we like his Light From Mars, he won a 25 runner handicap off a mark of 2 pounds higher at Newbury on his seasonal debut last year & there has been some money for him here suggesting connections fancy a good run. Light From Mars disappointed in every race after that win last year but in a few races he either encountered unsuitable softish ground or raced over indequate distances & that has all helped his mark drop from a high of 101 back down to 95 & he can exploit that reduced mark at best odds of 14/1. The favourite Eton Forever is highly respected but odds of 6/1 are probably just on the skinny side & we're happy to stick with the bigger priced winner.

Finally we come to Eshtibaak who we think can turn the Roseberry Handicap at Kempton into a procession, John Gosden is already in great form this year & could make it get better with a third win in a row from this unexposed sort. The son of Dalakhani made his debut last April, coming 5th, but didn't run again until smashing his maiden field in October & then made a very good comeback run last Friday by beating the useful Colour Guard pulling 7 lengths clear of the third. Chief rival here is William Haigh but we think that Alan Swinbank's gelding may have used up his handicap mark after winning 5 in a row & going from a mark of 70 to today's 95. At odds of 5/2 Eshtibaak can prove himself to be a Group horse in a handicap & slam these rivals, with the step up a furlong further to 1m 3f really suiting this galloping type.

Selections:
Dubai World Cup - Meydan 6.40 - Smart Falcon to win at 13/2 (Ladbrokes)
Meydan 2.10 - African Star to win at 7/4 (Boylesports & 888Sport)
Doncaster 3.15 - Light From Mars to win at 14/1 (Boylesports, Totesport & Betfred)
Kempton 3.30 - Eshtibaak to win at 5/2 (various)

A £1 yankee with all of these winning would be paying over £2000!