Grand National 2013 - Get ready to bow for Balthazar King

The Grand National is THE annual betting event & it's always a great spectacle, we're taking a look at this year's renewal & seeing which horses really stand out from a value perspective. We love a bit of flat racing too & that's starting to get underway with the first two Classics of the season the 1,000 & 2,000 Guineas just a month away & we should be previewing that as well - keep up to date with our latest posts by following us on Twitter along with our other 1600+ followers @LikeBuyingMoney


Aintree 4.15 Saturday - The Grand National

(Balthazar King (winning at Cheltenham) knows how to jump unconventional fences & loves a stamina test - ideal for the Grand National)

You'll hear the same things every year about the National with plenty saying it's a lottery & anything could win but although we've seen three winners at 33/1 or bigger in the last 6 years the overall trend is that horses near the top of the market tend to go well & in general you want a horse aged between 9 & 10 although the odd 12 year old can win.

The horse that really interests us here is Balthazar King - a horse that hasn't competed at any distances less than 2m7f for the past three years & has undertaken some big time stamina tests over unusual obstacles in three of his last four runs when taking part in 3m7f chases on Cheltenham's cross country course. Of course the slopes & fences on that cross country course aren't Grand National fences but they do show Balthazar King can cope with a jumping challenge & is improving (fell on his first try over them but finished 1st & then 2nd) the next two times along with a win on Cheltenham's standard course in that four race sequence too.

Aintree is a far flatter track than Cheltenham & quite a different test but this race requires stamina & Balthazar King has that in abundance, with 10 stone 12 pounds on his back in this race compared to 11-8 last time this will feel easy in comparison for the 9 year old gelding, he goes well fresh too which eases any worries about 141 days off the track. The weights for the race were specially framed some time ago & we reckon the handicapper would like Balthazar King to carry a little more weight if he could reassess the field today, at odds of 20/1 Balthazar King looks a great value bet.

(Cappa Bleu - high class & very rarely out of the frame)

We were keen on the chances of Cappa Bleu last year & Evan Williams' horse is surely in with a top chance again this time especially when you see that Seabass is ahead of him in the market but only finished one place ahead last time & is now giving Cappa Bleu 9 pounds of weight compared to 2 in 2012. Cappa Bleu is very lightly raced for an 11 year old with just 11 runs under rules but has a Cheltenham Festival win (the Foxhunters) & has finished placed in 8 of the 9 races he's finished (fallen once in the Hennessy & pulled up once over hurdles at the 2010 Cheltenham Festival). With such consistency & the way he travelled around the course last year we've got to have Cappa Bleu as one of our runners at odds of 12/1, if Paul Moloney doesn't give him such a tender ride this time he'll be bang there near the finish.

Other horses to respect include: Imperial Commander - winner of the 2010 Gold Cup; Chicago Grey - another who looks laced with stamina; likely favourite On His Own - representing the powerful Willie Mullins & Ruby Walsh trainer-jockey partnership; & as outsiders we'd suggest Viking Blond (off a feather weight) & Joncol - a two-time Grade One winner both have a live chance of placing.

Selections:
Balthazar King each way at 20/1 (Ladbrokes & Coral)
Cappa Bleu each way at 12/1 (Coral & William Hill)

Grand National - Cappa can take the Bleu Riband

Saturday sees the biggest annual betting event of the year with the 2012 Grand National at Aintree & we have a strong fancy for the race, there's some decent racing beforehand though & we like Zarkandar in the Aintree hurdle.

(Zarkandar (centre) winning at Newbury with subsequent impressive Grade 2 winner Get Me Out Of Here in behind)

Paul Nicholl's 5 year old is taken to beat his older rivals here & prove his Champion Hurdle running to be all wrong. Nicholls' other runner Rock On Ruby won that Champion Hurdle at Cheltenham but the belief among the Nicholls' camp was that Zarkandar was by far & away their main hope, unfortunately his Ditcheat horses were a little under the weather at the time (Rock On Ruby was instead trained at a satellite yard) & Zarkandar didn't show up at all well beforehand & didn't give his true running, doing all his best work right at the end of the race. We're thoroughly unsold on the merits of last year's winner Oscar Whisky, he held off the returning Thousand Stars by a head that time & both of their form ties in strongly with Hurricane Fly, form that we'd argue was always overrated & now deflated thanks to Oscar Whisky & Hurricane Fly being comprehensively defeated at Cheltenham once they took on different horses rather than just each other or extremely weak fields. It could be argued that Oscar Whisky will be best suited to this 2 mile 4 furlong contest but we suspect he's only doen so well over the distance because so few top class horses even try it, apart from occasionally in this race. Zarkandar won at the meeting last year, stays on extremely well at the end of races & has the master jockey Ruby Walsh on board, odds of 5/2 are great value with trainer Paul Nicholls in good form at the meeting already.

(These are the sort of scenes we want to be seeing at 4.30, with Cappa Bleu returning victorious)

Cappa Bleu is our idea of the winner, a classy sort that has already shown he can handle tough conditions when 3rd in this year's Welsh National in horrible ground. Evan Williams' 10 year old is the right age as 4 of the last 6 winners have aged the same, he'll enjoy conditions more here than at Chepstow as the ground only looks like being on the softish side rather than heavy ground. Cappa Bleu hasn't been the easiest horse to train, with very few miles under rules on the clock but Williams has been sounding confident in the build up, reckoning that he now has him at hios very best. This is a horse that lined up for the Hennessy, that Denman won so marvellously, at odds of 12/1 & won a Cheltenham race, the Foxhunters, on his first start under rules - with such class we have to be keen with odds of 18/1 available in places. Of course Cappa Bleu could fall (this is the Grand National after all) but we don't see him being far away if he gets around & we're confident with regards to stamina & the ground. Dangers are obviously the Gold Cup winner Synchronised & Becher winner West End Rocker, especially with Alan King's horses going so well.

(Vic Venturi (right) proving he's a good jumper of these National fences)

With 40 runners & 30 fences people often say that 'anything' could win & 'it's a bit of a lottery' but if you look back through the stats 8 winners from the last 10 runnings have won at odds of 20/1 or shorter with only Silver Birch (33/1) & one of this year's runners Mon Mome (100/1) being the real upset winners. None of the real outsiders get us going much this time around but it is interesting to see Vic Venturi at odds of 66/1, Dessie Hughes's 11 year old finished 2nd to Follow The Plan in the Grade One Guiness Gold Cup at Punchestown last May & that horse won the Betfred Bowl here on Thursday. Rare Bob was behind in third at Punchestown yet is a shorter price here even though worse off at the weights & it could be worth taking a risk with a small each way bet on Vic Venturi who looks to have been targeted solely at the race & has won over these fences before in the 2009 Becher Chase.

Selections:
2.50 Aintree - Zarkandar to win at 5/2 (various)
4.15 Aintree - Cappa Bleu to win at 18/1 (Bet365 & Coral)
4.15 Aintree - Vic Venturi each way at 66/1 (various)

It's a Hard Knocks Island Life

(Al Ferof is a bit of a beast & can slam his rivals in the 4.50)

The national hunt season in the UK is drawing to an end & the last real big meeting of the year is here with Aintree's Grand National fixture starting with a cracking card on Thursday. We've picked out some likely types & we're mindful of the regular upsets with Cheltenham winners, it's a very different track compared to the Gloucestershire venue, that could be more prevalent this year with the soft underfoot conditions.

Hunter chases aren't usually the type of races that we like to get involved in, it's difficult to ascertain levels of form for horses that have been running in point to points & only sporadically under rules plus the amateur jockeys add another element of uncertainty but we do like the look of Island Life in the John Smiths Fox Hunters' Chase at 3.40. You need a good jumper to navigate these national fences & Island Life is certainly that with just one fall in 30 runs over jumps & is in good form of late with two low grade hunter chase wins at Warwick & Hereford by decent margins. Although those last two wins came on significantly better ground than this it is difficult to believe that soft ground will prove too much of an obstacle as he's one of Turtle Island's progeny (& they are nearly all mudlarks) & has three wins previously where heavy was in the going description. Gwanako is probably the horse to beat but the value lies with Island Life at odds of 16/1 with Paddy Power who are offering 4 places & quarter the odds.

(Kumbeshwar just failing to beat another of our favourites, Zarkandar, last year here at Aintree)

Kumbeshwar only managed third when we tipped him for the final race of the Cheltenham festival with one of today's rivals, Tanks For That, finishing 7 lengths in front that day but a 5 pound swing in the weights & the fact that Kumbeshwar is a baby at 5 years old suggests he's the scope to turn that form around. Nicky Henderson was likely to have had his two horses Bellvano & Tanks For That in prime condition for the Cheltenham race as it is named after his late father & Kumbeshwar has already run really well here at Aintree where he ran Zarkandar close in a Grade One hurdle last year. Kumbeshwar's jump wins have all come when the ground has been worse than good & also won on the flat three times at Southwell & once when it was soft at Carrick so these conditions will hold no fears for Alan King's gelding. King has been in good form over the past couple of weeks with 7 winners from 33 runners & 17 of those runners finishing in the 1st three places in their races. Paul Nicholls' Edgardo Sol is another youngster & has won over course & distance back in October but has raced over hurdles for the rest of the season & doesn't look particularly well treated seeing as those hurdle runs should have preserved his chasing mark. Kumbeshwar is as tough & genuine as you like & we'll be happy to have our money down at odds of 7/1.

The last pick is easy, Al Ferof is better than his rivals in the Grade One Novices Chase at 4.50, Menorah did finish in front at Cheltenham but he did decide to rather land on a fence there rather than going over it & we've no doubts he'll turn that form around. Menorah has been a disappointing type over fences, twice failing to complete from 5 chase runs & his only two wins coming in 3 runner fields. Al Ferof's connections were already saying he needed further than two miles before he ran in the Arkle which makes it mystifying that they decided to take on the outstanding Sprinter Sacre that day. Conditions are no problem here & this will be a good preparation for Al Ferof for next year when the King George at Kempton is on the agenda. We don't see Venetia Williams' mare Pepite Rose as a threat even though she has racked up 4 wins from 29th Feb, they were basically easy races & nowhere near this kind of standard. Al Ferof should grind this lot into submission & odds of 11/10 are Like Buying Money.

Selections:
3.40 Aintree - Island Life each way at 16/1 (Paddy Power)
4.15 Aintree - Kumbeshwar at 7/1 (various)
4.50 Aintree - Al Ferof at 11/10 (various)