View some Oil Painting at Glorious Goodwood

Glorious Goodwood is here & whilst Frankel in the Sussex Stakes on Wednesday is the big draw there are still some good bets to be had on day one of the meeting & a horse that we really like is John Gosden's Michelangelo & the Galileo colt can continue Gosden's fine season by winning the Gordon Stakes at 2.35.

(Michelangelo doesn't have Donatello et al holding him back any longer....)

Michelangelo actually has to turn form around with Frankel's brother Noble Mission here as he finished 3rd to that one on debut, Noble Mission was having his 3rd run there though & it was a great performance from Michelangelo considering it was a Listed race & being his first time out. The extra two furlongs today should also help as he looks totally stamina laden, it seems that last time he raced over 10 furlongs just because the sales race prize was too valuable to turn down & really he looks a middle distance horse & maybe even a St Leger type. Gosden has two other horses with chances in the Leger & we think if Michelangelo runs well enough here there is just the possibility they may start to angle for a tilt at the Arc or maybe even the Breeders' Cup Turf over 1m4f as well. Noble Mission is a good marker but with normal improvement Michelangelo should go past & several of the others don't look near his standard.

Girolamo finished 3rd in the German Derby behind the very smart Pastorious but may want softer ground, he deserves respect though & Godolphin run the thoroughly unexposed Encke but you'd think that one would need to find a stone or more improvement on anything its done so far. We're slightly surprised Michelangelo isn't shorter than 11/8 & that price should be bet, this is one of the most exciting horses in training & could blow this lot away for the in form Buick & Gosden combination.

(Charlie Hills has started to get his two year olds flying)

The maiden race at 4.15 looks a really interesting contest & we think the chances of African Oil may be underestimated from the early prices we've seen. Charlie Hills has had two potentially smart two year old winners first time out in the past week in Kerbaaj & the particularly taking Ebn Arab (one to follow for sure) & he has African Oil here & this one has an entry in the Group Two Champagne Stakes so must have shown something at home. African Oil was foaled as early as is possible with a 1st January date & he could be quite physically forward with half the year's sun on his back, at odds of 14/1 he's the one to be on for the win. Of the horses to have run so far Huntsman's Close has shown most promise after being headed close home at Yarmouth but any of them would have to step up to take this £11,321 prize & we'll stick with the potential of the newcomer.

Selections:

Goodwood 2.35 - Michelangelo to win at 11/8 (general)

Goodwood 4.15 - African Oil to win at odds of 14/1 or bigger

Michelangelo is a Party Dude!

Ahhh a lovely few days break from the blog for us & just as well as Chelsea's dramatic comeback in the Champions League ruined what had, for a few minutes, looked like a winning 90 minutes bet on Bayern. It didn't ruin a good day at Newbury though where we got to see the incomparable Frankel up close in the flesh, his cruising speed & acceleration was incredibly impressive in the Lockinge & for any racing fan he's well worth seeing with your own eyes. We're back looking at this Friday's racing at Goodwood, in suitably glorious weather & the Listed Cocked Hat Stakes in particular.

(Michelangelo's connections won the St Leger with Masked Marvel (above) last year, can he prove to be in that league?)

The Cocked Hat Stakes has seen a name change & a couple of distance changes over time & its fair share of very good horses winning it including Dubai Millennium & Rewilding for Godolphin & last year's St Leger hero Masked Marvel for trainer John Gosden. Gosden has a likely type in the race this year with the once raced Michelangelo who runs in the same colours as the aforementioned Masked Marvel, he's a very nicely bred type with plenty of stamina in his pedigree & is likely to come on a bundle for his hugely promising debut run. Michelangelo was started out at Listed level & ran the twice raced, full brother to Frankel, Noble Mission to about 3 quarters of a length, finishing 3rd even though running very green in the early stages of that Newmarket race. Noble Mission has gone on to show that form to be solid enough by only just failing to give another very well bred inmate of Gosden's 5 pounds in another Listed Newmarket race, with normal improvement Michelangelo is at the least right in the mix for any decent Listed race & is arguably the pick on form already.

Fans of Expense Claim would argue that he has the stronger credentials with three handicap wins on the bounce at Kempton, Salisbury & then impressively off a mark of 85 at Newbury last week & he deserves this step up in class. It might pay to stick with an in form type like Expense Claim & he might prove up to this level & pick up a good race another day but we reckon Michelangelo might just be a couple of cuts above Listed level. Charlie Hills sends Perennial to contest this & this Motivator colt made a very nice start to his career in 2011 winning a 15 runner maiden & then finishing runner up in a Group 3, that Group 3 run didn't look hugely strong at the time but the 3rd, Astrology, came back this year to win Chester's Dee stakes in storming fashion (although it looked a somewhat weak renewal with just 4 runners). Last year's form would put Perennial in the mix here but a poor comeback run when favourite for the Feilden & only finishing a remote 6th tempers enthusiasm, Gosden's other runner here, Jungle Beat, finished 5th that day & looks to be second string to Michelangelo here. Michelangelo could prove very very smart & we wouldn't put a St Leger bid beyond him, this step up to 1 mile 3 furlongs will be in his favour & now with racecourse experience behind him he should power past these rivals & odds of 13/8 look worth taking.

(Frankel in the parade ring at Newbury before his striking Lockinge win)

Selection:
3.45 Goodwood - Michelangelo to win at 13/8 (William Hill)

Will Frankel win by Lengths in the Lockinge?

On Saturday we get to see Britain's first Group One race of the year for older horses with the Lockinge & that means the return of the wonder horse Frankel, Sir Henry Cecil's star swept all before him in his classic year  now bids to prove himself over again at 4. We've taken a look at the big race plus the supporting card at Newbury to find some decent bets on a massive day of sport that includes the Champions League final & Championship Playoff final.

(Frankel makes his comeback in the Lockinge & should win, but by how far?)

Frankel returns running over a mile again in the Lockinge & he was imperious at the distance last year, beating top rivals with ease, although the plan is to step in distance later in the year it looks implausible that any of today's rivals will be able to cope with his high cruising speed & impressive turn of foot. There are however a few doubts regarding the Galileo colt as he suffered what was described as a minor setback in training & his reappearance in this race was in doubt for a time. It also remains to be seen whether he's trained on - we've seen classic winners return as 4 year olds a few times over the last decade & often they've not lived up to their 3 year old careers, Frankel isn't a North Light or Workforce though. Excelebration is probably Frankel's chief rival here, with excellent form last year, winning on every occasion he didn't face Frankel but taking a beating 3 times against the monster. Excelebration could potentially have been last year's dominant miler if it hadn't been for Frankel & has now switched from Marco Botti to master trainer Aidan O'Brien & has the benefit of a run under his belt winning at the Curragh in style. Richard Hannon runs two in Strong Suit & Dubawi Gold but he hasn't really had the great start to the season he usually has & they both look up against it, Strong Suit's form with give in the ground really doesn't inspire. With pacemakers for both Frankel & Excelebration the race could be interesting from a tactical perspective & there are some shortish odds around Frankel winning by big distances but we reckon it might be slightly tougher on his seasonal debut & backing Frankel to win by 3 lengths or under with Totesport at 13/8 is the best bet.

(Bertiewhittle is a horse on the upgrade & can take the 6 furlong handicap)

The 2.30 looks like a really competitive handicap, especially with only 15 runners, one short of most bookmakers paying on 4 places but the trick is to find a horse with the potential to outrun its current mark & Bertiewhittle could be the one to do that here. Most of the runners look thoroughly exposed with only three 4 year olds taking their chance: Bertiewhittle, Whaileyy & Pabusar. Pabusar has competed in Listed or better company on 5 of his 11 runs, including an underwhelming comeback in the Cammidge at Doncaster & his handicap mark is probably staying a little high at the moment for him to win. Whaileyy looks to be fancied according to the betting but we've reservations for a horse that hasn't appeared to act on ground with a bit of juice in it before & with its improved form this year all being on the all weather, he'll need to prove that form is carried across to the turf before we take a chance. Bertiewhittle is by Bahamian Bounty so underfoot give shouldn't pose a problem & he won pretty impressively at Chester on soft ground to confirm that, with 9 finishes in the first 3 places from 15 runs he's pretty consistent. Although Bertiewhittle could only finish 15th of 24 on his comeback that was a pretty hot Newmarket handicap & he wasn't too far away at the end & endured a somewhat troubled passage, it should put the gelding spot on for this race. Mac's Power is relatively short in the market & maybe that's because Kieren Fallon is riding, nearly all his form comes on quicker ground than this & we're happy to swerve this one. Bertiewhittle has had his comeback run, is a young & improving sort & will handle conditions, odds of 7/1 are very reasonable & should be taken.

Selections:
Newbury 2.30 - Bertiewhittle to win at 7/1 (general)
Newbury 3.40 - Frankel to win by 3 lengths & under at 13/8 (Totesport)