African Story can Rule the World

With Saturday's football fixtures coming off an international break it seems pudent to try to avoid some potentially tricky ties & instead we're taking a look at some horse racing on the flat including the world's richest race, the Dubai World Cup. We should be back looking at the football next week plus Aintree's Grand National meeting including the main event itself. Keep up to date by following us on Twitter @LikeBuyingMoney by finding us there or clicking the Follow button at the top of the page.

6.05 Meydan - Dubai World Cup

This year's Dubai World Cup is an intriguing one as we have last year's impressive winner for Godolphin Monterosso trying to follow up, while the owners have the favourite in the form of Hunter's Light & another strong contender in last year's impressive Godolphin Mile winner African Story whilst being taken on by some top international challengers including 2011 Kentucky Derby winner Animal Kingdom.

(African Story can use his miler pace to win the Dubai World Cup)

2012 victor Monterosso looks as good a place as any to start as the horse also placed 3rd in the 2011 running showing his liking for the race conditions, unfortunately this son of Dubawi has run very poorly in his only two runs since, coming up woefully short in the Coral Eclipse won by Nathaniel & then slammed on his comeback here when only 9th in his prep race 3 weeks ago. Monterosso has bounced back before & belied odds of 20/1 to win last year but we think the race may have just about finished him off & it looks like the winner of his last race, Hunter's Light, looks more of a contender for Godolphin this time. Hunter's Light had only ever looked a smart listed race performer up until the 2nd half of last season when he went on to win a Group 3 at Haydock impressively then finished a distant 2nd to the top notch 10 furlong performer Cirrus Des Aigles. This season Hunter's Light has appeared the most impressive performer at the Meydan carnival at this distance on the Tapeta surface with solid & comfortable wins against good opposition at 9 & 10 furlongs but this is surely a step up & odds around 100/30 seem short enough for us as the horse doesn't exude star quality.

The two big American challengers look to be Animal Kingdom & super-mare Royal Delta - a two-time Breeders' Cup Ladies Classic winner. Animal Kingdom seems to be able to handle any type of surface with wins at a high level on turf & dirt & his trainer Graham Motion reckons he may even be at his best on this Tapeta all-weather surface. Animal Kingdom has only finished out of the first two on one occasion, when clipping heels in the final leg of the Triple Crown, the Belmont, & he looked booked for at least a place before landing an unfavourable 2nd to outside draw & that could prove his undoing. Royal Delta is probably the more exciting prospect as she bids to become the first female horse to win the race & she certainly has top class form plus has seen plenty of racing so should be battle-hardened but it is a different prospect taking on top class colts & she may just be brushed off in the straight.

The horse we like is African Story who looks a true Tapeta specialist & has been outstanding on the surface since joining Saeed Bin Suroor from french master-trainer Andre Fabre, only losing on the surface when hampered in his 2nd race at Meydan in 2012. After winning the Godolphin Mile (1st race on card) last year he was tried in the Champions Mile at Hong Kong but could only finish 6th, that's a very different test though & he won impressively on his comeback 3 weeks ago after 307 days off the track. African Story has a high cruising speed & sharp turn of foot, this is his first try at the distance but if Kieron Fallon can keep him covered up & deliver him with a late rattle odds of 9/1 could be made to look silly.

1.10 Meydan - Godolphin Mile

(Soft Falling Rain can leave his older rivals strung out behind & make it 7 wins from 7)

In the first thorough-bred race on the card we can't see past Mike De Kock's Soft Falling Rain at odds of 7/2, the South African colt has won all 6 of his races, proving to be the top younger horse in SA & then coming here to win his two starts impressively. That 2nd win was the UAE 2000 Guineas & he started a warm 8/11 favourite & won like that too, the shortest priced rivals today are Penitent & Surfer at odds around 9/1. Penitent is a solid group race performer but lacks the kind of star qulaity you'd hope would be on show on World Cup night & Surfer has been beaten in his last two races by Hunter's Light at slightly further distances, he'll have to markedly quicker here at 8 furlongs but does have the draw to attempt a front running performance if they choose that tactic.

2.20 Kempton - Magnolia Stakes

(Robin Hoods Bay looks a 'steal' at 11/4)

Back in the UK we're taking a look at a bit more all-weather action as the potentially tacky ground worries us at Doncaster (we do have a liking for Captain Ramius in the Cammidge & Strictly Silver in the Lincoln though). Kempton has a nice Listed race with 7 runners all rated at 95 or above & we like the look of Robin Hoods Bay to gain a victory after finishing 2nd in the Winter Derby two weeks ago. That run was the culmination of a considerable bit of improvement for Ed Vaughan's son of Derby winner Motivator who'd previously won handicaps off of 92 & then 95 at Lingfield & Kempton respectively. In the first of those wins Robin Hoods Bay gave weight & a beating to Strictly Silver & that subsequently won very nicely in the Lincoln Trial at Wolverhampton, the Winter Derby run was very good too & it was no disgrace losing to Faraaj as that horse looks very much on the upgrade & could make a good group race horse. Today's rivals Cai Shen & Tinshu  were behind at Lingfield & there's no reason they shouldn't be again, ex-French trained Genzy does look a danger though as that one finished only a length behind Faraaj on its seasonal debut & has the potential to improve for that run. Strictly on form Robin Hoods Bay should have the beating of Genzy though as it finished closer to Faraaj & wasn't receiving weight like Genzy, odds of 11/4 for a Robin Hoods Bay could mean we're robbing from the rich bookies in this one!

Selections:
1.10 Meydan - Soft Falling Rain at 7/2 (General)
2.20 Kempton - Robin Hoods Bay at 11/4 (Bet365, Paddy Power & William Hill)
6.05 Meydan - African Story at 9/1 (Various)

Yes - the Falcon does have Large Talons

We're delighted the flat season is finally beginning & it's great that the first fixture is back home at Doncaster & the tremendous Lincoln handicap rather than like in 2011 where the first turf fixture of the year was at Leicester. As well as the beginning of the UK flat racing season there is the world's richest horse race with the Dubai World Cup at Meydan & Kempton has some high class action on the all weather too. We've looked at the meetings & come up with some selections that should offer up some decent value.

(Smart Falcon can rule in the Dubai World Cup)

The Dubai World Cup sees Aidan O'Brien's So You Think as the current favourite but a European based trainer has never managed a winner in the race, unless you count Godolphin's Saeed Bin Suroor who is based in Dubai for half of the year, & there is good reason even without that statistic to think that odds of 5/2 offer no value at all. The ex-Antipodean champion picked up three Group One's last year but they were some of the weakest we've seen, winning one at 1/7 & another at 4/6, the other win in the Eclipse was decent but conditions far suited So You Think compared to 2010 Derby winner Workforce & he didn't real give that form a boost at all. So You Think then lost his next three, albeit in the very best races around, but maybe that showed his true level of form, a Group One performer but not an elite Group One winner & it tends to be top horses winning this race. We reckon that the Japanese horse Smart Falcon offers a much better bet at odds of 13/2 with Ladbrokes. The horse is a winning machine with 19 wins from 26 runs & horses from Japan have consistently proven they are right up with the top Europeans & jockey Yutaka Take could try & make all on his mount in a bid to emulate Victoire Pisa's success last year. Godolphin always have to be respected as Sheikh Mohamed loves to win this race that is his brainchild, Mahmood Al Zarooni trains their best chance in Capponi & his thrashing of good yardstick Silver Pond here last time warrants respect.

Elesewhere on the Meydan card the best bet of the day looks to be in the first thoroughbred race of the day as Bin Suroor's African Story looks a horse on the upgrade & this acquisition that switched from Andre Fabre at the end of last year can take the Godolphin Mile & we reckon in some style too. He gave some good rivals, including the reopposing 2nd Snaffy, a real beating last time & also won on his UAE debut. Although African Story lost the next time that was under the jockeyship of Mikael Barzalona & he's got Frankie Dettori on board today as he was for both of those wins. We really like the 2nd favourite Western Diplomat & backed him heavily in a couple of races at the backend of last season but African Story is a cut above & the current price of 7/4 surely won't be available come the time of the race.

(Light From Mars (the grey) could provide a value winner in the Lincoln)

Back in the UK & we have to pick a selection for the flat season's traditional curtain raiser in the Lincoln Handicap, although we were surprised to see just three 4 year olds in the lineup considering the success that age group has achieved in the race. Trainer John Quinn has won the race before with Blythe Knight in 2006 & we like his Light From Mars, he won a 25 runner handicap off a mark of 2 pounds higher at Newbury on his seasonal debut last year & there has been some money for him here suggesting connections fancy a good run. Light From Mars disappointed in every race after that win last year but in a few races he either encountered unsuitable softish ground or raced over indequate distances & that has all helped his mark drop from a high of 101 back down to 95 & he can exploit that reduced mark at best odds of 14/1. The favourite Eton Forever is highly respected but odds of 6/1 are probably just on the skinny side & we're happy to stick with the bigger priced winner.

Finally we come to Eshtibaak who we think can turn the Roseberry Handicap at Kempton into a procession, John Gosden is already in great form this year & could make it get better with a third win in a row from this unexposed sort. The son of Dalakhani made his debut last April, coming 5th, but didn't run again until smashing his maiden field in October & then made a very good comeback run last Friday by beating the useful Colour Guard pulling 7 lengths clear of the third. Chief rival here is William Haigh but we think that Alan Swinbank's gelding may have used up his handicap mark after winning 5 in a row & going from a mark of 70 to today's 95. At odds of 5/2 Eshtibaak can prove himself to be a Group horse in a handicap & slam these rivals, with the step up a furlong further to 1m 3f really suiting this galloping type.

Selections:
Dubai World Cup - Meydan 6.40 - Smart Falcon to win at 13/2 (Ladbrokes)
Meydan 2.10 - African Star to win at 7/4 (Boylesports & 888Sport)
Doncaster 3.15 - Light From Mars to win at 14/1 (Boylesports, Totesport & Betfred)
Kempton 3.30 - Eshtibaak to win at 5/2 (various)

A £1 yankee with all of these winning would be paying over £2000!