(Andrea Pirlo (centre) can lead Italy to Euro glory)
In their group game it was Italy that at first looked outright more likely to score than Spain after Del Bosque decided to start with 6 in midfield & no striker, Spain looked a little toothless at times & it was Italy who made the breakthrough after the misfiring Balotelli was replaced by Di Natale who made a near instant impact with a goal. Spain bounced straight back that day with a typically incisive goal from the classy Cesc Fabregas & afterwards looked slightly the more likely team once Jesus Navas & Fernando Torres were on the pitch, fortunately for Italy, Torres was completely out of sorts in front of goal & missed or messed up several presentable chances.
A lack of goals & clear scoring opportunities is affecting Spain now they are without the first choice David Villa, Torres isn't half the player he once was & playing 6"5 striker Fernando Llorente appears to be anathema to boss Del Bosque, even though he's a very technically competent footballer. Down the right hand side of the Spain shape Xavi & David Silva haven't quite had the success you'd expect from such talented players although it looks like both will almost certainly retain their spots & are clearly capable of harming Italy if they play to their potential. Of course Spain don't need to be scoring by the bucketload to win as they have the meanest defence in football & the only goal they've conceded this tournament was that one from Di Natale, possession & retention of the ball helps & even when they lose it they have an outstanding keeper in Iker Cassilas who is protected by Ramos & Barcelona's bargain of the century Gerard Pique (re-signed from Man Utd for a measly £5m!).
(Spain's Gerard Pique & Iker Cassillas are just about the best stopper/defender combination around)
Italy haven't been setting the tournament alight with plenty of goals themselves, they have been able to create chances but Cassano & Balotelli (up to the last game at least) haven't always been clinical & certainly against England especially the whole team seemed to lack composure in front of goal. That being said they looked outstanding against Germany & completely outclassed England, even though they couldn't score, & the momentum looks to be with them especially as Spain just had to play the full 120 minutes against Portugal, somewhat offsetting their extra rest day advantage. The hope for Italy, & worry for Spain, is that now Balotelli has got himself fired up that he won't be missing some of the chances he was earlier in the tournament, hopefully he'll try to play on the defender's shoulder & stretch the field a little for Italy as that will mean Andrea Pirlo can do his inimitable thing.
Pirlo has been this tournament's standout star & with Cristiano Ronaldo failing to sparkle in the semi final he's now odds on to pick up the Player of the Tournament prize (tipped at 80/1 here), his passing & overall control of the game has been instrumental to Italy's progression but his fellow midfielders have been excellent too. Daniele de Rossi has shown some great movement & work rate & filled in ably at the back in the first two games,Claudio Marchisio has been consistently good all through the tournament & since coming into the side for the knockout games Riccardo Montolivo has added an extra element of trickery & pinpoint passing to the attack. Although Antonio Cassano hasn't, understandably, been able to last out a full 90 minutes in any game so far his movement, touch & general attacking intent have been crucial & he always seems to be available for a pass from his midfielders.
Italy haven't been bad at all at the back either with only 3 goals conceded, & even though he wasn't always conventional at times against Germany, Gianluigi Buffon showed why he, along with opposite number Cassilas, is still a significant step up from any of the up & coming young keepers. We really like Giorgio Chiellini & he was versatile to move out to left back in the last game & provide real threat going forwards against Spain, that moved Balzaretti to right back but he looked just as comfortable there & has been improving throughout the tournament & could give Jordi Alba some real problems if & when Italy break on Spain.
(Antonio Cassano overpriced at 12/1 to score first?)
We mentioned that the full back positions looked to be maybe Spain's one area of weakness before the Portugal game but they countered that against Ronaldo & co by playing pretty much a containing game throughout & Arbeloa & Alba weren't left exposed against the Portuguese pace too often. Arbeloa is surely the worst player in the Spain starting eleven by some way & although we know he's good we haven't always been totally convinced by Alba here, of course they've still played fine (as one goal conceded shows) but they maybe don't quite match up to the rest of Spain's high standards.
In terms of form it might just be Italy that have the edge, they totally outclassed England & only some desperate defending & woodwork stopped them scoring & then they were blistering against Germany with Mario Balotelli coming to life with two good goals. Spain didn't have to be anywhere near their best to beat a shambolic France team & then huffed & puffed against Portugal & you'd say were outplayed in the first half, Italy were better in that opener two, certainly in the first half & that will give a lot of confidence to the betting underdogs.
The problem with beating Spain is simply that they are the ultimate 'hard to beat' team, they control possession & concede so few goals that the best most sides can hope for is a draw, we know all of this yet still find ourselves believing that Italy are the ones to burst Spain's bubble & we reckon they can do it inside 90 minutes at odds of 29/10. Italy have played overall just a bit better than Spain going forward even though they've scored two less, they've hit the woodwork a couple of times & 4 of Spain's goals came against dire Ireland. All the talk will be of Balotelli & that means that we think a bit of value can be found with Antonio Cassano to be first scorer at 12/1, it would be a fairytale story after Cassano's serious health problems but is thoroughly possible & with so much defensive focus on 'Super' Mario he may be the one to find the chances. If Italy are to win the game, even in extra time or penalties, you'd have to make Andrea Pirlo a big favourite to be Man of the Match & odds of 5/1 look fair, it would be a fitting end to an outstanding display of technique & effectiveness throughout the tournament from Italy's Architect.
Selections:
Italy to beat Spain in 90 minutes at 29/10 (BetVictor)
Antonio Cassano to score first at 12/1 (BetVictor & William Hill)
Andrea Pirlo to be Man of the Match at 5/1 (Various)
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