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Friday 29 June 2012

Michelangelo to deliver a Masterstroke

After Royal Ascot started out so promisingly for us the week turned horrible as several Aidan O'Brien horses ran well below form, particularly Astrology that had his rivals well & truly beat on form in the King Edward VII but couldn't raise a gallop in the last two furlongs. We're looking to bounce back as we go onwards & into the main part of the flat racing season, there are some nice races this Saturday including the Irish Derby, being staged at 7.40pm, & we've found some horses at fair odds to get on.

(Michelangelo getting on top in the Cocked Hat Stakes)

We're real fans of John Gosden's exciting colt Michelangelo & backed it heavily last time when winning a Listed race at Goodwood on only his second start, with Samitar & Rougemont out of this Newmarket race it looks Michelangelo's for the taking. Trainer & rider combination John Gosden & William Buick were in outstanding form at Royal Ascot & Michelangelo has the best form on offer in the race, the one worry is the step back 1 furlong from 1m3f as Michelangelo has a stout pedigree & looks like he could stay at least another 2 furlongs & that was shown when reeling in the front running Expense Claim last time. We wouldn't be surprised to see a much faster start for Michelangelo this time & Buick try to make the running, Newmarket can be a little bit of a test & that would play into this one's hooves, at 10/11 Michelangelo should be backed to win the valuable sales race at 2.00pm.

(Arctic is a sprinter back on the upgrade)

Over in Ireland before the Irish Derby & the return of potential superstar Camelot there is an interesting sprint & with ground conditions in his favour we think that Arctic can follow up its easy win two weeks ago at Navan. Tracey Collins 5 year old gelding is lightly raced with only 12 runs behind him & was excellent at two where he won his first three races including beating crack sprinter Sole Power by 5 lengths in a Listed race & then following up with a wide margin win in a Group/ His win at Navan was his first since that first season but the signs were there to back him as the ground was really soft & was running in handicap company off a mark 20 pounds lower than he'd been rated at when at the top of his game. Arctic has been raised 8 pounds for the Navan win but that looks fair enough & if coming back to form he'll take some stopping as he's a high cruising speed, the one to challenge could be Bertiewhittle but David Barron's decent handicapper let supporters down when well backed at Newbury on Lockinge day & we would rather avoid. At a standout 10/1 with Ladbrokes we think Arctic is nailed on for at least a place & could win this before stepping back up to Listed & Group company.

(Hoof It can power home under Frankie Dettori at Newmarket)

In the Criterion Stakes at Newmarket you can get odds of 2/1 about Hoof It & we reckon that is pretty much a bet of whether he'll get 7 furlongs or not as Mick Easterby's sprinter is a Group One performer (at least in British sprinting) & should pick these rivals up & spit them out. Libranno bounced back to form in a Listed contest at Salisbury last time but the field ended up in a heap at the finish there so the form mightn't be great. Firebeam is Hoof it's chief rival in the betting here but we think its rating of 111 is overestimating just how good William Haggas's gelding is, it comes courtesy of running Red Jazz close last time but that rival was always just about holding him & hasn't run too smartly since anyway. Hoof It won two large field handicaps in taking fashion last year before running creditably in the Group One Nunthorpe & then being very unluckily touched off in a close finish in the Betfred Sprint Cup by the UK's top two sprinters in Dream Ahead & Bated Breath. Hoof It will have to put a somewhat disappointing run in the Temple Stakes behind him but that was its comeback run, he looks such a powerful horse that we think he'll now be able to last out 7 furlongs & frankie Dettori is the right jockey to deliver him at the right time.

Selections:
Newmarket 2.00 - Michelangelo to win at 10/11 (general)
Newmarket 3.35 - Hoof It to win at 2/1 (PaddyPower & Stan James)
Curragh 5.55 - Arctic each way at 10/1 (Ladbrokes)

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