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Wednesday 6 June 2012

Euro 2012 Group B - High chance of success for Low's men

It’s fairly obvious why the Group B has been widely described as the tournaments ‘Group of Death’. The group pits nations ranked 2nd, 4th, 5th and 10th in the FIFA rankings against each another, if any more persuading was needed on the credentials of the group, the four nations have appeared in 12 European Championship Semi Finals and have lifted the trophy on 5 occasions between them.

(Philipp Lahm performs at a high level at all times, like so many of his Germany colleagues)

Germany: Outright Winners 3/1 & Group B Winners 6/5

Germany, under the stewardship of Joachim Low booked their place Euro 2012 with maximum points in qualifying (10 wins out of 10). The bookies make them second favourites to succeed in Poland and Ukraine, captained by Champions League runner up Phillip Lahm Germany are widely available at 3/1. Since qualifying results have been mixed, a 3-0 victory in Hamburg against fellow Group B nation the Netherlands was followed up with back-to-back defeats to the French (1-2) and Swiss 3-5) they did however beat Israel courtesy of Mario Gomez and Bayern Leverkusen’s 21 year old marksman Andre Schurrle in their most recent outing meaning they come into the tournament on the back of a victory. Low’s team will be built around his strong defence Manuel Neuer will play in goal with Jerome Boateng & Phillip Lahm the full backs with Hummels & Badstuber the centre backs. The defence will be protected by formidable midfielder Bastian Schweinsteiger who will also allow the likes of Ozil, Gotze and Kroos to support the aforementioned Gomez. Germany can also call on the evergreen Miroslav Klose who always seems to come to life in the major tournaments. A mere 7 of Low’s likely starters line up together on a regular basis for Champions League and Bundesliga runners up Bayern Munich which gives them a great understanding that is so often missing with national sides. With a group of such high quality players & that understanding it could prove a little too much for the other sides in the group & Germany always perform in the finals of tournaments & backing them at odds against to win the group looks safe even though it is highly competitive.

(Arjen Robben is a joy to watch & will be one of many attacking threats for Holland)

Holland: Outright Winners 7/1 & Group B Winners 2/1
World Cup 2010 runners up Holland are best priced 7/1 (Coral) to triumph this summer. The Dutch, guided by 60-year-old Bert van Marwijk, won 9 out of 10 qualifying games, only losing at the hands of Sweden in a 3-2 thriller in Solna. The offensive side of the Netherlands squad oozes class, Robben, Van Persie, Huntelaar et al will pose a threat to Europe’s top defences; 37 goals in qualifying suggest they know how to find the back of the net. They do however look vulnerable at the back with first choice left back Erik Pieters misses the tournament altogether & highly regarded Gregory van der Wiel, who wowed spectators in the World Cup two years ago, has not been performing at that level in recent months. Centre back pairing John Heitinga and Joris Mathijsen don’t instil us with confidence, Everton’s Heitinga is prone to a mistake or two (as was shown in the recently friendly defeat against Bulgaria), Mathijsen also took a knock in that game and will go into the tournament as a fitness doubt. Playing against pace is a slight worry for the Netherlands, not the weak link you want against the other teams in this group. A positive for the Oranje is that they are no strangers of qualifying from tough groups, 4 years ago they overcame Italy, France and Romania to top Euro 2008's 'Group of Death'.

(Apparently there's 11 players in the Portugal team & we thought there was only one.....)

Portugal: Outright Winners 20/1 & Group B Winners 9/2
The third nation in the group is Portugal who were able to paly with a much greater sense of freedom once Carlos Queiroz was replaced by Paulo Bento as manager. It wasn’t all plain sailing though, defeat against opponents here Denmark meant they needed to qualify via the play-offs to book a place at Euro 2012. Portugal will be missing Danny and Carlos Martins through injury and the likes of Bosingwa and Carvalho have retired from international football. They do still however have a good starting defensive line up, the only worry should be any further injuries or suspensions, Joao Pereira will start at right back & should anything happen to him Bento’s options are limited. Portugal's Achilles heel is a lack of a quality centre forward as Postiga often doesn’t perform well often enough & although Hugo Almeida has shown glimpses of brilliance, which has led to tentative interest from some of Europe’s top sides, the youngster is inexperienced and doesn’t have the nous to lead the line alone. Portugal may be able to get away with not having a world-class centre forward due to one man, Cristiano Ronaldo. Ronaldo’s ability is known the world over and he can carry any team over the line, there is a lot of weight on his shoulders but he wouldn’t have it any other way, expect big things from the Real Madrid man. Ronaldo to be the top Portuguese scorer at the tournament is best priced at 15/8, it’s hard to look past him – he’ll certainly be taking free kicks and penalties which can only aid in his chances of outscoring his compatriots. Postiga is the second favourite, his return of 5 goals in qualifying and 9 goals for club side Real Zaragoza don’t suggest he’s a real threat to the prolific Real Madrid man.

(Holding midfielder William Kvist will be key to Denmark's play)

Denmark: Outright Winners 100/1 & Group B Winners18/1
The final side in Group B are the 1992 Champions Denmark, finishing above Portugal in qualifying suggest they won’t be at Euro 2012 just to make up the numbers although expectations are relatively low and the Danes can therefore play without too much pressure. Morten Olsen will try to frustrate Germany, the Netherlands and Portugal and catch them on the break. It’s unlikely that the Danes will cause the other sides too much of a threat going forwards and therefore they’ll know that they need to keep it as tight as possible at the back. Conceding just 6 goals in qualifying shows they can operate a tight defence & Nicklas Bendtner does a better job for his national side (18 goals in 48 games) than in the Premier League. Although they might exit at the group stages we don’t think they’ll get embarrassed by their opponents. An interesting market is team to concede fewest in the tournament & Denmark are best priced at 22/1, a potentially shrewd gamble if they exit at the first stage having only conceded 1 or 2 goals.

Selections:
Germany to win Group B at 6/5 (William Hill)
Cristiano Ronaldo top Portuguese Scorer at 15/8 (SportingBet and BetVictor)
Denmark to concede fewest goals at Euro 2012 at 22/1 (Ladbrokes and Paddy Power)

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