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Saturday 23 June 2012

Quarter Final Four - Insert Lazy Italian Job Headline here

England & Italy meet in the last of the quarter finals fighting it out for the 'privilege' of facing Germany in the semi final, neither side will have given that match too much thought yet as their concentration will be solely on this game & it looks like being a difficult one to call either way.

(Mario Balotelli - when he's good he's very very good but when he's bad he is horrid!)

England have seemingly already exceeded expectations at home by qualifying at the top of their group ahead of France & although they haven't looked technically great they have looked well disciplined & resolute & have been succeeding with a real team effort. Steven Gerrard has to be considered the standout performer in the tournament for England going forwards with some outstanding deliveries & he seems to relish his role as captain, he's certainly the type of player that others can rally around & arguably should have had the captaincy before now. At the back although Chelsea performers John Terry & Ashley Cole have been receiving the plaudits (Terry does play with a certain exuberance with goal line clearances etc.) we think that Joleon Lescott has been rocksteady, just like he was for Man City all year, & it's that base that they can work with for some real solidity.

Italy have been pretty solid at the back themselves, conceding just twice in 1-1 draws with Spain & Croatia & they are two good sides so there was little disgrace there - they are going to be without their robust defender Giorgio Chiellini though & it will be interesting to see how they set up without him. Daniele De Rossi could fall back into the centre of a three man defence just as they played in the first two games & he did perform very creditably in that role. The worry with De Rossi in defence is that he won't necessarily cope with a big physical striker up against him & that must make Hodgson tempted to play footballing Neanderthal Andy Carroll as his front man. Italy did not look weakened in central midfield without De Rossi in those first two games with the technical excellence of Motta, Marchisio & the outstanding so far Andrea Pirlo helping them to control possession & look for openings. It will be fascinating to see those three go up against England's more rough & ragged, but extremely hardworking Gerrard & Parker, James Milner will be looking to get narrow when his support is needed too.

(England's hopes are resting on you Mr Rooney - perform!)

For England it seems that all hopes rest with the near mythical Wayne Rooney, on his day Rooney can be up there with some of the best in the world but we feel he's essentially a streaky player who goes through very good periods & then some very poor periods rather than being consistently great. Rooney's touch looked bad at times against Ukraine & he was more reminiscent of the player who toiled so badly at World Cup 2010 than the one who has terrorised Premier League defences for the last couple of seasons, he did get his goal though & England fans will hope he can kick on from that. Rooney has been considered slightly temperamental at times & that certainly caused him to be banned for the first two games, he did only pick up three yellows all season for Man United & looks to have calmed a little - the same cannot be said for the enigmatic Mario Balotelli.

Reports suggest that Balotelli is going to be recalled to the starting lineup after his late, very good, goal to wrap up the win against Ireland, he's an outstanding talent & will know any weaknesses in Joe Hart's or Joleon Lescott's paly that could be exploited. We don't seem to be able to find the stats up to the end of the season but in April Balotelli was leading the league in goals per minute played & that doesn't surprise as his accuracy is second to none with him seemingly able to place the ball in the corners of the net at will. Of course Balotelli is what is officially known as 'a lunatic' & there's a theory that England players will look to wind him up but it will have been drilled into him that the best way to respond is with goals & at 8/1 Balotelli's value to bag the first of the game.

So far in the tournament there have been five 1-1 results & these two sides have been in matches accounting for three of those & the way that they set out it does make a similar result to that quite likely with their disciplined defensive setups but still with quality forwards, at odds of 11/2 backing the 1-1 correct score is a play. Even if Italy can score first England seem to have a never say die attitude & have the ability with their deliveries in the box to bounce back, if it goes the other way & England can make a breakthrough they have looked vulnerable with a lead in all three games & could easily concede.

Selections:
1-1 Correct Score at 11/2 (various)
Mario Balotelli to score first at 8/1 (various) + scorecast Balotelli 1-1 at 35/1+

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