Euro 2012 Group C - Reigning Spain to feel the Pain

Our European Championship preview is finding the best bets from every group & also some outright tournament bets. Here we take a look at Group C, containing tournament favourites Spain, 1968 winners Italy, tough & talented Croatia & finally Giovanni Trapattoni's Republic of Ireland.

(Xavi is the perfect exponent of the Spanish way of playing)

Spain: Outright Winners 11/4 & Group C Winners at 8/13

It's understandable to see Spain as favourites for Euro 2012, they are the world's number one ranked team & are the current holders of the competition & the World Cup too, Spain have quite simply dominated international football over the past five years with their brand of technical, possession football & look hard to beat. Spain were perfect through qualifying, winning all 8 of their games, knocking in 26 goals & only conceding 6, it wasn't a tough group (as most aren't) with the Czech Republic being a much reduced force & the 3 teams being the minnows of Scotland, Lithuania & Liechtenstein. It still takes a lot to keep up that level of performance over the whole period of qualifying especially when on the road & when already qualified & goes to show just how professional the Spanish are.

Spain start strong at the back with probably the world's best goalkeeper in Iker Casillas, he became Spain's most capped player of all time in late 2011 & bearing in mind he's only 31 it's conceivable he could end up playing over 200 games for his country. With vice-captain Carlos Puyol out of the tournament through injury it looks as though his regular club partner at Barcelona, Gerard Pique, will be joined in central defence by Real Madrid rival & all round red card collecting lunatic Sergio Ramos, who should move inside from right back. That should mean that ex-Liverpool player Alvaro Arbeloa gets to play at his natural position of right back & Jordi Alba will get to build on his relatively minimal international experience as he comes in at left back. It mustn't be forgotten that Spain won all of their World Cup knockout games 1-0 (including the final after extra time) & Casillas & his watertight defence were key to that success, they still look some outfit but it's never easy to have to make changes & they will miss Puyol's leadership.

Spain don't have too many problems in midfield, as evidenced by the fact that a player as talented as Cesc Fabregas can't pin down a starting spot, Iniesta, David Silva & the phenomenal Xavi provide the trademark metronomic passing that has become synonymous with the supposed 'right way' to play football over the last few years. Backing up the front three are the destructive & incredibly efficient Sergio Busquets & then Xabi Alonso, a player who barely seems to move at times yet gets an awful lot of the ball as he strives to set up attacking phase after attacking phase. Up front things get a little trickier for the Spanish with their record scorer David Villa out though injury, that means that they take Pedro (2 goals both in friendlies in 15 appearances), Fernando Torres (2 international goals since 2010), Fernando Llorente (7 goals in 20 but not since 2010) & Alvaro Negredo (5 goals in 8 but all in high scoring wins against weak opposition). It looks like Llorente has a chance of starting up front & he's some player, particularly shining on Athletic Bilbao's Europa League run where he tormented Man United's defence, although Spain's style might not totally suit the 6"5 big man who's great in the air too. It is worrying that they don't have any forwards currently in top form & if one doesn't get going those 1-0 results they were gaining in the World Cup could just turn to draws & cause them a frustrating time.

(Giorgio Chiellini is an enforcer at the back for Italy)

Italy: Outright Winners 16/1 & Group C Winners at 100/30

Italy are 16/1 shots for the tournament but looked in pretty good shape during qualifying, winning 7 & drawing 2, with their home game against Serbia abandoned & awarded to them 3-0, with just two goals conceded they had the tightest defence of any qualifying team & are likely to put that to good effect when coming up against Spain in their opening match. Buffon is still outstanding in goal at the age of 34 & is protected by hard case Giorgio Chiellini & Andrea Barzagli who seems to have got better with age & is playing his best football now after joining Juventus in 2011. If Italy play with a true four at the back then Chiellini could be shunted out to left back with Balzaretti, the one true left back, pretty inexperienced at the highest level considering he's 30 but whatever choices Cesare Prandelli makes with the defence are likely to be astute. Although Italy had a great qualifying defensively & have been renowned for it in the past, it has actually been their attractive technical play that has recently caught the attention with Andrea Pirlo being their main man & one of the best creators in the game. De Rossi & Marchisio are tough no-nonsense midfielders who can boss pretty much any opposition midfield but they are also great on the ball & by winning it & giving it to Pirlo they allow him to do the pretty things.

Italy don't tend to play with too much width, instead allowing Antonio Cassano to play in behind a couple of forward players & the Milan attacker does the business for the national team although he hasn't played all the time for club, that wasn't helped due to a serious health scare in October requiring heart surgery & he only made his first team comeback in April, he's said to be fully recovered now though. Antonio Di Natale is better than ever at the age of 34 & has scored 29, 28 & 29 goals over the past three Serie A seasons, who he gets partnered by up front is still up in the air but it might just be the unpredictable Balotelli if the City player can gain Cesare's trust. Clearly the loss of Guiseppe Rossi to yet another lengthy injury is a blow to the Italians & it remains to be seen whether they can get scoring again.

(Croatis captain Darijo Srna will be hoping to lead his team out of this tough group)

Croatia: Outright Winners 50/1 & Group C Winners at 15/2

Croatia are 50/1 outsiders for outright glory & 7/4 to qualify from the group & with Spain & Italy there it does look a tough ask but they have some genuinely top class players going forwards & a core team that have played together for years & they look to have their best side since manager Slaven Bilic was playing & they had Davor Suker up front. Eduardo never really cut it at Arsenal but he's got 22 goals for the national side & he's only likely to be fourth choice up front behind Bayern's Ivica Olic, Mario Mandzukic & in form big man Nikica Jelavic. Everton's Jelavic would instantly walk into the England starting eleven but he isn't guaranteed to get into the side here thanks to only 2 goals in 18 games for the Croats. Luka Modric is considered one of the Premier League's best & he'll create plenty from midfield with Darijo Srna & Niko Kranjcar in the wide positions getting the ball in the box. Ognjen Vukojevic could well have a big role to play in the side as the defensive midfielder & they may even elect to play with another in the games against Spain & Italy & add Dujmovic to the mix too. With a bit of a dodgy defence (Corluka's one of their better defenders!) they'll be keen to get off to a good start against Ireland & if they can avoid losing there they'll give the big two sides a rough ride & rely on some moments of inspiration from Modric.

(Richard Dunne will have plenty to do in defence as Ireland will be sitting deep in their games)

Ireland: Outright Winners 100/1 & Group C Winners at 18/1

The Republic of Ireland will be looking to put a wealth of experience to good use in this tournament as they go into it with 3 of their top 5 most capped players in Shay Given, Damien Duff & Robbie Keane, they have some quality players but with the astute Trapattoni in charge they'll primarily look to be solid first & then look to their stars for a bit of inspiration. Having only lost one game, to Russia, in qualifying they'll be taking a good feeling into the tournament plus will be desperate for a bit of success after missing out on finals so closely over the past few years. There isn't too much pace across the back four for Ireland but Richard Dunne can be inspirational at times in the centre of defence & will scare many cultured forward players with his  physical presence, it looks like Leicester's resurgent Sean St Ledger will join him at the back & although neither are top players they make a decent partnership. John O'Shea will start at one of the full back postions & will either be on the left with Stephen Kelly at right back or on the right with Stephen Ward at left back, either way O'Shea will likely be the only one of the four to get forwards with any regularity & his crossing ability shouldn't be underestimated.

Central midfield is not inspiring for the Irish with Keith Andrews & Glenn Whelan looking like getting the spots but they both work very hard & can pay the simple balls to the wingers they'll rely on to create their chances. Ireland seem to be one of the few countries left still producing true wingers & in Duff, McGeady & Sunderland's untested James McClean they have some exciting players that will create problems for defenders. We don't see Trapattoni giving McClean a starting role straight away, Duff is ultra dependable & McGeady has gone to Spartak Moscow & proven himself in a tough country & that experience will help him here. Keane is clearly their lead striker & it looks like he'll have his regular international partner Kevin Doyle with him, if so that will be a disappointment to Shane Long who performed better than him outright for most of the Premier League season. Just like Croatia they'll see their opening match as key & if they do gain the win over the Croats they'll be looking to contain both Italy & Spain & may be better drilled by their wily old coach than their Eastern European rivals. Getting out of the group isn't a forlorn hope for the Irish, although it is certainly a tough ask.

(Italy's cultured playmaker Andrea Pirlo is too big at 80/1 for Player of the Tournament)

There are plenty of people who will be saying that Spain are sure things for the whole tournament & if they're right then getting out of the group should be a formality but they lost to Switzerland in their first game at the World Cup & they have to face the Azzurri blue here in their opener & that won't be easy. If Italy can pull a out a win in that opener, it all starts to look a little tougher for Spain especially as Ireland & Croatia will be playing with banks of players behind the ball & without David Villa Spain might not have the cutting edge to make the most of the few chances they'll create, those World Cup one nils could easily turn to scoreless draws & a potential early exit. Of course the likelihood is that Spain go through but do we really want to take odds of 1/7 about that? Instead get on Betfair & take a lay of Spain to qualify from the group & lay them at 1.16 & shorter, successful betting is about identifying where the odds are incorrect & taking advantage, Spain are worthy favourites but not that worthy. Whoever does get through the group has a great chance of reaching the quarter finals with only France looking particularly worthy opponents from Group D, if Italy do get to the semis they'll be doing it on the back of displays from Andrea Pirlo & at 80/1 he is a fine bet for Player of the Tournament, he's a class act & with it likely being his final tournament he's a prime contender for the selectors to pick. The final bet here has to be for Group C to be the lowest scoring group at odds of 3/1 - the bookies seem to be overestimating the scoring ability of some of these teams, remember Spain are missing Villa & Italy are without Rossi, Ireland & Croatia may go for it in their opener but are certain to be horribly negative against the other two & there could be some real wars of attrition here. Group A is the short priced favourite for this market but Russia could stick a few in the back of the net & the Czech Republic could be open at the back plus Poland have some pundits' idea of an outright top scorer in Lewandowski so Group C is the bet.

Selections:
Lay Spain at odds of 1.16 (2/13) or shorter to qualify through the group
Andrea Pirlo to be Player of the Tournament at 80/1 (various)
Group C to be lowest scoring group at odds of 3/1 (various)