(Di Natale made an impressive goalscoring impact for Italy & will hope to have secured a starting berth)
5:00 pm - Italy vs Croatia
Croatia are a proactive team & showed they could take it to a team trying to defend when showing Ireland their attacking prowess & superiority with a convincing win, Ireland were poor though & Italy will offer up a much sterner test.
Italy were content to be reactive against Spain, allowing them to come on to them before breaking away with Andrea Pirlo regularly looking to play killer balls in behind the defence. One of Pirlo's exquisite passes was how they took the lead with the still quick Antonio Di Natale darting onto it & finishing with aplomb, he may have just got himself a starting spot as he offered a real menace when introduced as a substitute. Italy are also extremely comfortable when in possession & at times held onto the ball well against Spain, they'll certainly look to impose their will on the less technically gifted (than Spain) Croatians here. Marchisio & Motta will look to be more effective at getting at Croatia's key playmaker Luka Modric, than Whelan & Andrews were for Ireland & they are far superior players so will stand a better chance.
Croatia did look dangerous going forward & Mario Mandzukic took his goals very well, albeit against some rubbish Irish defending & goalkeeping, he's a dependable scorer for Wolfsburg but his brace the other day were only his 6th & 7th international goals in 30 appearances. Nikica Jelavic bagged Croatia's other goal against Ireland but rather surprisingly that was only his third goal for Croatia in 20 games, so between them Mandzukic & Jelavic do only have 10 goals in 50 appearances so we should maybe not get too carried away against the best defence in qualifying for the tournament. Vedran Corluka played at centre back for Croatia in the first game & they got away with it thanks to Trapattoni's sentimentality in continuing to play a thoroughly out of form & low in confidence Kevin Doyle but Italy will surely exploit a player as suspect as Corluka. The rest of the defence is very ordinary too with captain Darijo Srna starting at right back even though he more often plays at right midfield, the keeper Pletikos only made one appearance when on loan at Spurs in 2010 & Schildenfeld & Strinic are average at best. In midfield the Croats do have some real quality with Rakitic & Perisic being goal providers & scorers too, the Italian wing backs should pick them up though, with the Italian 3-5-2 looking suited to Croatia's setup.
Andrea Pirlo was excellent against Italy & we can barely believe Boylesports are going a huge 16/1 for him to be Man of the Match here, snap their hands off, sign up to them, get free bets on, do whatever, this is a magnificent price for a brilliant player who is regularly Italy's best - it is no coincidence that Juventus won the double as soon as he signed up last year. Italy look adaptable to any situation & the way they played against Spain shows that they are genuine contenders for this championship & they will be raring to go against Croatia, we see a win for Cesare Prandelli's men at odds of 13/10. Croatia's defensive weakness could cost them dear against Pirlo, Cassano & co.
(Iker Cassilas & his defenders shouldn't face too much pressure from the Irish attack)
7:45 pm - Spain vs Republic of Ireland
Everyone in the universe must by now have heard Spain played without a striker against Italy (+ have had their say about it) but they will surely have a point man against Ireland who looked so limited against Croatia.
We highlighted pre-tournament & before their last game how poor the Irish central midfielders are on the ball & unless Trapattoni switches out Whelan & Andrews they will do well to get over 30% possession here. You'd have thought Ireland would switch to one up front with maybe the big lad Darron Gibson coming in to add some more physicality to the midfield. It won't help too much as Spain will have at least 5 in midfield & they should play their tika-taka football to some effect, playing it in around Ireland. Trapattoni will have been planning this game out for months & the philosophy will be 'bend don't break' for them, they;ll be happy to let Spain have the ball up to & around 25 yards out where they'll then try to get close & if they win possession Duff & McGeady (or McLean) will be the out ball. However Ireland play it does look tough for them to get anything, Robbie Keane has been playing in the MLS & it's difficult to step back up this higher level & odds of 8/11 for Spain to keep a clean sheet look a very good pick indeed.
Spain didn't always look great defensively against Italy but in Andrea Pirlo they came up against their Kryptonite with his sumptuous passes in behind, Ireland definitely don't have anyone with that ability & Pique & Ramos will be happy to deal with crosses into the box. Spain can be frustrating to watch if you have your money down as they so often don't pull the trigger when the chances arise & that limits appeal about them winning by a big margin. It will be interesting to see what lineup they go with, they certainly should win but we can't find any great value in the odds offered about them & will happily stick with the clean sheet bet. They'll be hoping for better from players such as David Silva & Sergio Busquets as they look to play themselves into the tournament before a key game against Croatia up next.
Selections:
Italy to beat Croatia at 13/10 (various)
Andrea Pirlo to be Man of the Match at 16/1 (Boylesports)
Spain to keep a clean sheet at 8/11 (Totesport)
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