Cue Card can Out-Boxing Day Rivals in King George

Boxing Day is always a big day for sport with a full schedule of football & high quality horse racing, we're taking a look at one Premier League game plus a couple of Grade One races from Kempton as we look for some festive cheer.

Christmas Hurdle - 2.35 Kempton

This year's renewal of the Christmas Hurdle looks to be one where last year's novices try to make their mark as fully fledged Champion Hurdle contenders & we think it'll certainly be one of the upstarts to win this time. Punjabi is a previous Champion Hurdler but that was in 2009 & Henderson's charge has been off the track for two & a half years & we can't see him showing up well & Raya Star & Get Me Out Of Here are top handicappers but probably not quite at this level whilst Moose Moran is a no hoper.

(Countrywide Flame is tough & classy & deserves favouritism in the Christmas Hurdle)

After eliminating horses 5-8 from consideration we're left with the 4 & 5 year olds, Dodging Bullets has shown good form this season to win twice after competing at a very high level & running well in its first 3 hurdle starts at the beginning of 2012 but opposition here might just have the edge as he's twice finished behind Countrywide Flame already. Cinders And Ashes & Darlan finished 1st & 2nd respectively in the Supreme Novices at Cheltenham & Darlan then went & won very easily at Aintree in a Grade Two but it does have to overcome this being its first start of the season. Donald McCain's Cinders And Ashes one fair & square at Cheltenham but Darlan may just have a little more scope in the long run & either way it seems hard to imagine that Cinders And Ashes can turn around form with Countrywide Flame as John Quinn's 4 year old slammed it by 12 lengths in the Fighting Fifth at Newcastle. Countrywide Flame had been kept busy over the summer by running on the flat but gave the impression that he'd grown up a bit in that Newcastle race & he'd already shown great from last year when winning the Triumph & coming close to following up at Aintree, we're certain if Countrywide Flame was with a more fashionable trainer it'd be a shorter price than 2/1 for this so take advantage & get on.

King George VI Chase - 3.10 Kempton

The 2nd most prestigious 3 mile chase of the season nearly always throws up classy winners & is the key trial for the Gold Cup, we won't have 5 time winner Kauto Star competing this time but 2010 winner & 2011 runner up Long Run heads the betting at 2/1.

(Cue Card looks a strong King George Chase contender)

Long Run is the obvious starting point as the highest rated horse & we felt he'd regain the Gold Cup last March but it might be that the 2010 race took a lot of the horse as he did that as just a 6 year old, many ex-French horses show great form as younger horses over here but then fail to improve like more patiently trained runners. Long Run has only won once in his last 5 runs & that was all out holding off Burton Port, the form is all high class but the odds today are a little short especially as owner & amateur rider Sam Waley-Cohen continues to take the reins - he of course can do as he pleases but stable jockey Barry Geraghty would surely do a better job.

Long Run's stablemate Riverside Theatre looks to hold a great chance even though it's know as a two & a half miler as it looked like a real staying performance when winning the Ryanair at Cheltenham & he's repeatedly shone after a break. Kauto Stone however looks to be too short a price based on overall form although the win at Down Royal in November was the best it had been & may have indicated a step up, we still can't be backing the Nicholls horse in this one. The Giant Bolster is one that definitely has improved, finishing 2nd in the Gold Cup & then 3rd in the Betfair Chase but nthat still isn;t winning form & while it could run well is another we'll disregard. Grands Crus is the horse we fear most as he'd looked a true 3 mile star as a novice up until disappointing at Cheltenham, he flopped on comeback when red hot favourite for the Paddy Power but the money has started to come for David Pipe's grey in recent days & this track should be perfect for him if on his game.

We're instead siding with Cue Card as the youngest horse in the race looks to take it's classy form over a shorter distance & become a serious Gold Cup contender. Colin Tizzard's 6 year old unseated when taking on Grands Crus on its 2nd chase start but other than that has either won or when losing has only done so to the very best novices around in Bob's Worth & the spectacular Sprinter Sacre. Cue Card tore up trees when storming to victory in the Haldon Gold Cup at Exeter & we're unsure this will be a truly run race as many of the contenders are speed horses, if the race is run to suit we feel Cue Card will be the quickest come the end & can claim a brilliant success at odds of 11/2.

Fulham vs Southampton

Martin Jol's Fulham have won just once in their last 10 league games & come up against Southampton who are in relatively good form winning half their last 6 & their defence has improved massively to only concede just 5 in 7 after looking completely hopeless until the end of October, this promises to be an intriguing match up.

(Damien Duff is one of Fulham's old guard who can celebrate a win v Southampton)

Everybody knows that Fulham's away form is less than adequate but they're pretty solid at home usually & although they've lost 3 at home from 8 two of those came against top opposition in the form of Spurs & Man City. Fulham seem to have adopted a very attacking attitude with Jol now really molding the side to his style & the signing of Dimitar Berbatov looks an inspired piece of business, he's known to bully weaker teams & Southampton have conceded 20 in 7 away games even with their recent improvement. At the back Fulham look a bit of an ageing side & Schwarzer has been on the slide for a while & all 4 first choice defenders 30 or older & they're the 2nd highest conceders along with Southampton & Wigan. They were awful against Liverpool at the weekend, offering very little resistance but the Saints could be the right opponents for them to be facing here.

Southampton may be improved recently but that has mainly been at St Marys as they've won only once on the road & lost their other 6 games, their recent defensive improvement has also come at a cost to their attacking threat & star striker Rickie Lambert has scored just twice in 12. Of great concern to Southampton will be the injury to their captain & playmaker Adam Lallana who looks likely to sit this one out, he's very important to them but at least Gaston Ramirez has got fit & started to contribute, he adds a touch of class when on form. Southampton went down 1-0 at home to Sunderland on Saturday & only managed 2 shots on target in the game, Rickie Lambert will find defences more to his liking than Fulham's, they're a physical bunch, & he's struggled to get good service in recent games anyway. We're unconvinced Southampton can keep up their good defensive work & Fulham can take advantage in a game they need to win to get their season back on track, back them at a shades of odds on to win the game.

Selections:
2.35 Kempton - Countrywide Flame to win at 2/1 (General)
3.10 Kempton - Cue Card to win at 11/2
Fulham to beat Southampton at 10/11 (Betfred & Totesport)

NFL Week 16 - Colts can show Chiefs who's the Boss

Just two weeks of regular season games before the NFL playoffs & it looks like the cream has risen to the top in most divisions, we're looking at a couple of games where we think the odds make a wager worthwhile as we try to follow up the two odds against winners last Sunday.

Indianapolis Colts @ Kansas City Chiefs

Kansas City are on course to end up with the worst record in the league - thus ending up with the first pick in the draft whilst Indianapolis can seal a playoff spot with a win here & that should tell you all you need to know about the teams' motivation & the most likely winners here.

(T.Y. Hilton looks overpriced to score the first touchdown in the Colts v Chiefs game)

The Colts finished last in 2011, with star passer Peyton Manning injured, & that allowed them to pick up incredible rookie passer Andrew Luck who has helped guide them to a 9&5 record & the brink of the playoffs, they couldn't have asked for a better game to clinch a post season berth than this one as the Chiefs have taken beatings week in & week out. The Colts' defense is pretty ordinary ranking 21st against the pass & 23rd against the run but Kansas have the lowest average points scored per game in the league at just 13.9 & they're a one dimensional outfit that rely heavily on tailback Jamaal Charles as their quarterback play is so weak. With the knowledge that Kansas are unlikely to score too often the Colts offense will feel pretty confident & the combination of Luck passing to Reggie Wayne will be seen often as they've struck up a great partnership. The other success story for the Colts has been the play of rookie wide receiver T.Y. Hilton & he's bagged himself 6 touchdowns on the year, Hilton looks too big at 10/1 to get the first TD - he's also on kick & punt returns giving us extra scoring chances. Indy have a few injury niggles but all their key players look set to start & we think they'll be tough to stop

 The Chiefs didn't even get a single point against the pretty bad themselves Raiders last week as they went down 15-0 to 5 Janikowski field goals, it was embarrassing stuff & their defense will feel deflated after not allowing Oakland to score a TD & still losing badly. There's no let up with the dire quarterback play with Brady Quinn only having thrown two scores on the season & they were against a porous Carolina defense. Offensively everything rests on Jamaal Charles for the Chiefs & he's been great with 1,230 rushing yards but even he struggled last week getting just 10 yards total on 9 carries & he must be tiring, it looks a tough ask for them to even put up a bold display in their last home game of the year & even their fans mightn't want to see them win if it means they're deprived of the first draft pick!

The Colts will be desperate to get the job done this week as in their final regular season game they host the Texans & that looks a very tough one indeed unless they've already got the number one spot. With the Chiefs having lost 10 of their 14 games by more than 7 points the handicap of -6.5 points for Indianapolis looks a great bet & should be snapped up without hesitation.

Buffalo Bills @ Miami Dolphins

Miami are technically still in the hunt for a wildcard playoff place with the potential to get to an even 8&8 record with two wins but it seems highly unlikely they'll make it & the Bills are already eliminated with a 5&9 losing record. With pretty ordinary quarterback play for both teams this looks like it might be tight & trappy encounter with lots of rushing plays, it might not be the most important game of all time but we think there's money to be made as a gambling event.

(Mario Williams is starting to prove his worth at defensive end for the Bills)

Buffalo took a humiliating beating last week to Seattle but the Seahawks seem to have turned on the afterburners in their last few outings (becoming Super Bowl dark horses in the process) & that may not have been quite as dreadful a result as it looked for the Bills. The Buffalo defense had started to perform closer to the level it should be at with the individuals in it & the upgrades made before the season started, before the Seahawks game they'd restricted opponents to 20 or less points for 4 games in a row. On offense they rank up in 6th for rushing yards & C.J. Spiller continues to pick up the yards in his breakout season but he won't find it easy against the Dolphins' defense that rank 6th in points given up & 8th against the run.

Miami have struggled for points all season & we don't see it improving here even though Buffalo have been bad against the run over the year, Reggie Bush is not a dependable running back & he'll be getting a heavy workload with Daniel Thomas now out for the remainder of the season. Rookie quarterback Ryan Tannehill did well against Jacksonville but they're not a good side & his passer rating of 75.9 is not very good at all. Brian Hartline & Davone Bess are targeted way more than his other receivers & that's problematic as Bess is out & Hartline still questionable for the game, without them it 'll be tough for them to move the ball easily down the field. They're pretty hot defensively & Karlos Dansby continues to be monstrous at the linebacker position & Reshad Jones has been pretty nifty at safety too, that tough defense always gives them a chance as they look to shut down the opposition & gain good field position. With decent defenses, rushing games meaning the clock will tick & overall questionable quarterbacks we can see this being a low scoring affair so back under 41.5 total points at Evens with Coral.

Selections:
Indianapolis Colts to beat Kansas City Chiefs with -6.5 point handicap at 10/11 (Ladbrokes, Coral & William Hill)
T.Y. Hilton to score first touchdown at 10/1 (Skybet & William Hill)
Under 41.5 points in Buffalo Bills @ Miami Dolphins at Evens (Coral)

Sky Blues & Arsenal to deliver a double volley to the bookies

There's plenty of sporting action over this Christmas period & we'll be trying to find the best bets right throughout - the football wasn't great for us last Saturday with two lower league losers but other than that it's been winners all the way for followers with Arsenal winning with ease on Monday preceded by our NFL picks coming up trumps too. We'll have the American football bets up as usual for Sunday's full schedule of games & with a bit of luck we may even get a King George blog up as well for Boxing Day's racing. Make sure to follow us on Twitter @LikeBuyingMoney if you aren't doing so already by finding us on there or clicking the Follow button up above.

Wigan Athletic vs Arsenal

Sometimes you can see bets that look too simple to be true but you can't let that put you off a great punting opportunity & Arsenal look overpriced again against Wigan just as they were when thrashing Reading on Monday night.

(Ho Ho Ho! What will Santi deliver this Christmas?)

Arsene Wenger has done a super bit of business with tying down a quintet of key young English players to long term deals in the week & there appears to be a bit of a feel good factor at the club after hearing nothing but grumbles by many fans & some super intelligent ex-players (cough Ian Wright cough). Arsenal are one of the top three sides in Europe in terms of possession along with Bayern Munich & Barcelona who sit way out in front, that passing style & superior players should ensure that they best Wigan who also try to play football the supposed 'right' way.

Wigan have lost the joint most games in the league, 10 along with Reading & too often seem to have a soft centre & that paired along with a lack of a consistent scorer has meant they've slipped into the relegation zone. Wigan's ex-Hamilton James's McCarthy & McArthur are decent players but Arsenal's central midfielders should be able to outmaneuver them especially now that Santi Cazorla looks to back to form with an almighty bang. Odds of 3/4 about an Arsenal win look too big - the Latics are 3rd worst on their home form with the Gunners 4th best in the league on the road.

Coventry City vs Preston North End

Down in League One, Coventry City entertain Preston North End at Ricoh Arena. There is only one point & two places between them with Coventry 13th & Preston 15th.

(Striker David McGoldrick (front) is the main man for Coventry & worth his weight in goals)

Coventry are in fine form & two weeks ago they brought home the money for us & you as they easily dispatched Walsall 5-1 with a brace from both David McGoldrick & Carl Baker. They followed it up with an excellent 4-1 away victory at 4th place Doncaster Rovers to make it six wins in their last eight league games. McGoldrick is League One top goalscorer now with 15 goals of which ten coming his last nine league games & manager Mark Robins will be desperate to extend his loan deal past the 1st January.

Preston have been inconsistent all season with seven wins, eight draws & seven defeats in their 22 league games so far, they have only won one of their last eight league games & a they earnt a point in a 0-0 draw last weekend against Portsmouth after two defeats to Leyton Orient & Crewe Alexander. They have failed to score in three of their last four & the side haven't been effective since the long term injuries to full backs Keith Keane & Scott Laird.

We expect a Coventry side brimming with confidence & goals to be too strong for an inconsistent Preston team at the best price of 6/5 with bet365 & BetVictor.

Selections:
Arsenal to beat Wigan Athletic at 3/4 (Various)
Coventry City to beat Preston North End at 6/5 (bet365/BetVictor)

Monday Night Football - Royals facing the Firing Squad

We haven't been making picks for every Monday night but we like the look of the Premier League game this week as there may have been a slight overreaction by the layers to Arsenal's recent poor form - Kevin Pullein recently stated again, in his excellent Racing Post column, how poor runs of form tend to be worse indicators of the quality of a team than good runs (it's easier to lose than win!) & this may well be the case with the Gunners.

Reading vs Arsenal

All the talk in recent weeks has been of how terrible Arsenal are & that it may be time for the side to part ways with their French managerial maestro Arsene Wenger yet if they beat bottom placed Reading this Monday night they'll go to 5th place in the Premier League & be set to be challenging for one of those lucrative Champions League spots.

(Arsene Wenger is under intense media pressure & has demanded his players improve)

It's quite correct for Arsenal to have been derided for going out of the League Cup to League Two Bradford last week, they can't claim to have not been taking it seriously because we all saw the 11 players who lined up & proceeded to play so poorly with a listless display. The criticism will however have genuinely hurt Wenger & the vast majority of his players (Three-O Walcott may not care so much though....) & this game against the porous Reading defence could be just the tonic for the Gunners. The League Cup game here earlier in the season was maybe the most remarkable in the competition ever with the scoreline ending up 7-5 after Reading led by 4 just before half time with Walcott (a slight doubt here with injury) inspiring the Arsenal comeback.

(Not everyone's favourite but Per Mertesacker has helped organise the Arsenal defence)

That 7-5 game will mean that both sides will want to be tighter at the back here but Reading don't have the players to do that, they've kept just one clean sheet in the league & Arsenal are much more resilient in general, they've had 6 clean sheets (over 1/3 of their games) & have only conceded 16 in total. Some Reading defenders really aren't up to this level & that includes mediocre keeper Adam Federici & Shaun Cummings & Adrian Mariappa have struggled with the step up to the top league. Arsenal still need to strengthen at the keeper position but their back 4 are actually developing into a coherent group & although Per Mertesacker is always vulnerable to balls in behind he's well complemented by pacy fullbacks Gibbs & Jenkinson. Arsenal's big problem in recent weeks has been that record signing Santi Cazorla's form has dropped off, he had become their most important attacking player by far & the talented but unarguably overrated Jack Wilshere has not stepped up on his return from injury.

Reading have won just once this year, they've lost their last 5 & they conceded 3 to toothless Sunderland last week, as lacklustre as Arsenal have been we think the value lies with them to win & do it comfortably too - back them at 4/6 to pick up the win. Arsenal should be really fired up & will be aiming to salvage a bit of respect from their short journey to the suburbs, their attack should be much improved when Gervinho drops to the bench so have samll bets on scorelines of 2-0 & 3-0 at 9/1 & 16/1 for potential big pickups.

Selections:
Arsenal to beat Reading at 4/6 (General)
Arsenal to win 2-0 at 9/1 (BetVictor, Stan James & Coral)
Arsenal to win 3-0 at 16/1 (BetVictor & Stan James)

NFL Week 15 - Cowboys & Redskins? Welcome to the good old US of American Football!

The NFL keeps on rolling & we're really into the home stretch now with just 3 weeks of regular season games left before the playoffs, we're looking at two games between AFC North & NFC East teams that have big playoff implications with all 4 teams' chances in precarious positions.

Pittsburgh Steelers @ Dallas Cowboys

This game between the two best supported teams in the NFL has plenty of subtext to it & it's no surprise to see it's the televised evening game here in the UK, regardless of all the things surrounding this game we're struggling to see how the Steelers have been made favourites for the clash.

(DeMarcus Ware sacks Ben Roethlisberger - we could see plenty of this on Sunday)

There was tragedy before the Cowboys' game last week as practice squad member Jerry Brown Jr was killed in a car crash with team mate Josh Brent at the wheel, Brent was subsequently charged with manslaughter yet the Cowboys came up with a win over the Bengals with a last minute field goal. Dallas have hit a rich vein of form, winning 4 of their last 5 just when it looked like their season was a lost one with a 3&6 start & although they've not beaten good sides, the Bengals aside, it's been altogether better than Pittsburgh's recent run. The Steelers' recent poor run of one win in 4 has coincided with injury to their starting quarterback Ben Roethlisberger & even though he returned last week they fell to the San Diego Chargers who have been laughably poor for most of their season. Big Ben is clearly playing whilst still injured (he's wearing a Kevlar body protector) & whilst he is exceptional on the big occasions he may just be pushing it too much this time, it also doesn't help that their rushing attack really isn't good enough (ranks 25th in yards per game).

Pittsburgh's offensive line has been a weak point for several years & that impacts on their running offense & also their pass protection of Roethlisberger & it's no surprise that he has been getting injured, that pass protection will be sorely tested by the Cowboy's star player & sack monster linebacker DeMarcus Ware who will be in the passer's face at every opportunity. Pittsburgh are still a force on defense, ranking 1st in yards given up & they'll be relying on that holding up here against Dallas's potent passing offense - it won't be easy even with the Cowboys' top receiver Dez Bryant having a fractured finger. Bryant's injury should mean that Tony Romo targets his good buddy Jason Witten even more & Miles Austin should see plenty of action too, the short passes to tight end Witten may do just the trick against the aggressive Steeler defense. Dallas are renowned for being chokers when it gets to December & the playoffs loom but it's worth siding with them against the Steelers who have lost to some much poorer sides than the Cowboys, take the 11/10 on offer for a home win.

Washington Redskins @ Cleveland Browns

In another game between sides from the AFC North & NFC East we see Washington travel to Cleveland to take on the Browns, the sides have won 7 in a row between them to improve from poor starts & this could be a good one.

(Redskin rookies Kirk Cousins & Alfred Morris will hope to lead them to victory)

The Redskins have one big injury problem with their impressive rookie passer Robert Griffin III getting a knee injury last week & he is either out or going to play on the injured knee which will severely limit his mobility which is such a key facet of his game. the positive for the Redskins is that their backup quarterback, another rookie, Kirk Cousins did a great job when stepping into the game last week & they have the league's number one ranked rushing attack anyway. That run offense of course is helped by Griffin's ability to take off but their running back (another rookie!) Alfred Morris has been outstanding running for over 100 yards in 6 games this year including in his last 3 games. There should be points available whoever starts for Washington against the Browns' defense that is merely ordinary at best but they do need to improve on defense themselves, it's an area where they don't really have any stars & they are too reliant on 37 year old veteran London Fletcher at times.

This game really is rookie central as the Browns' quarterback Brandon Weeden & starting tailback Trent Richardson are both first year players too, Richardson has undoubtedly been a success with 10 touchdowns although his yrads per carry is only average whilst Weeden has had his troubles at times. Weeden is actually the oldest player ever drafted in the first round of the NFL draft (he was 28 at the time but 29 now) & he previously played pro baseball, he's thrown 15 interceptions to 13 touchdowns but we think he should have done better with a nice set of receivers to aim for. Josh Gordon has been the Cleveland receiver to really step up to the mark in recent weeks & he'll like his chances of more receiving yards against the weak Redskin secondary. The Browns also have one of the league's best cornerbacks in Joe Haden who is basically a shutdown corenerback meaning he can completely nullify an opposing receiver - it may however not be overly useful in this one as we see Washington going very run heavy here.

Even though both sides are on winning runs we can't be too impressed with Cleveland's wins that have come against Pittsburgh without Roethlisberger & then the hapless Raiders & Chiefs, they'll have a good go at it but Washington can pick up the win & keep themselves in playoff contention.

Selections:
Dallas Cowboys to beat Pittsburgh Steelers at 11/10 (General)
Washington Redskins to beat Cleveland Browns at 5/6 (General)

Lower league & International winners all rolled into one!

We're back & after a pretty mediocre weekend last time ended our lovely run of winning weekend after running weekends we're trying to get back on track & we've got our usual football picks plus a horse racing one too! It's been a while since we turned to the horses on the blog as the flat season was a little disappointing in our opinion with pretty much just Frankel out in front & then the rest an awful long way back, the jumps are back though & we do occasionally hear things as we're situated right in premier jumps trainer country here in Somerset so we'll try to share when we can.

Stanjames.com International Hurdle

(Zarkandar & connections could be celebrating another win on Saturday)

This race looks like being the best it's been in many a year with three strong contenders for Champion Hurdle glory at the Cheltenham festival in March facing off against each other. We've a real belief in Paul Nicholls' classily bred Zarkandar, the half brother to Arc heroine Zarkava & think that he can win this before going on to win the big one at the festival.

Zarkandar could only manage 5th in the championship race last season whilst Rock On Ruby won the big one - there had however been health problems with various horses at Nicholls' Ditcheat yard in the buildup to Cheltenham & although Rock On Ruby was nominally his horse it was actually trained many miles away by Harry Fry who now holds his own licence & trains the horse in his own right. Zarkandar holds an advantage over Rock On Ruby anyway this time after winning on seasonal debut at Wincanton giving weight away all round & always holding the runner up, stablemate Prospect Wells. Rock On Ruby hasn't raced yet this season & it's a tough ask to win first time out in this company. The chief threat may instead come from last year's winner Grandouet who's already lost twice when taking on Zarkandar, coming 3rd in the Triumph in 2011 & then when getting brought down 2 fences out at Aintree when looking to be going just as well as the selection - we however weren't convinced Grandouet would necessarily have found enough to get past the battling favourite. Nicky Henderson's gelding hasn't however raced since last year's renewal & we think Zarkandar is the best of these anyway even without the fitness advantage so back him at odds of 5/4 for a nice win on the horses.

Leyton Orient vs Scunthorpe United

Down in League One, Leyton Orient entertain Scunthorpe United at the Matchroom Stadium. Leyton Orient are on 31 points & in 11th place whilst Scunthorpe are struggling in a lowly 23rd.

(Star Man Kevin Lisbie scored both goals in the 2-0 away victory at Bury)

The O's are in fanatstic form currently with five straight league wins & Russell Slade's side are brimming with confidence. The catalyst seems to be a change in formation to 4-4-2 which has allowed the team to get more crosses into the box for striking duo Kevin Lisbie & David Mooney to thrive & put away the goals. They have a combined 13 goals in all competitions & between them they have scored one or more in each of their last eight games including FA Cup matches. They have kept two consecutive clean sheets & have only conceded nine goals in ten home matches so look a good at both ends of the pitch.

Opposition Scunthorpe have suffered 12 defeats in their 21 league games & have only recorded four victories against sides in positions of 15th & lower. They have lost their last three league games against Bury, Doncaster Rovers & AFC Bournemouth with a disappointing 8 goals conceded. They have conceded 39 goals at & average of 1.86 per game & they won't be looking forward to the prospect of facing Kevin Lisbie & co. We expect Leyton Orient to be too strong for a poor Scunthorpe outfit at the best price of 23/20 at BetVictor.

Gillingham vs Fleetwood Town

This game in League Two sees the two teams that have conceded the least & 2nd least goals in the division as leaders Gillingham host Fleetwood Town who are sitting high in the table in 8th place but have only won one of their last 7 league games.

(Gillingham need to get skipper Danny Kedwell scoring again)

Gillingham have basically been the classiest operators in the league this season & they've lost only 3 times so far, being absolutely formidable on the road & not at all bad at home either although they're looking to bounce back after a shock reverse to Exeter last time they were at the Priestfield Stadium. The Gills started the season absolutely flying with 7 wins & a draw in their first 8 games & it was always going to be unlikely they could keep that pace going but they've still done well although they could do with captain Danny Kedwell getting back on the goal trail again although veteran striker Deon Burton has got 3 in the last 4.

The fast start  subsequent slowdown is a similar story for Fleetwood but their pace has really dropped off in recent games where they haven't been scoring enough to turn draws into wins (they've had 8 ties in 21 games, 2nd most in League Two). The fact that their left back Junior Brown is their top scorer shows where Fleetwood's troubles lie as they are pretty good at defending their own goal, you need a high powered attack to breakdown Gillingham usually & it looks a very difficult assignment. Back Gillingham at odds of 10/11 to beat Fleetwood & show why they are 5 points clear at the top of the table.

Selections:
Zarkandar to win the International Hurdle at Cheltenham 3.05 - odds of 5/4 currently
Leyton Orient to beat Scunthorpe United at 23/20 (BetVictor)
Gillingham to beat Fleetwood Town at 10/11 (Boylesports & Coral)

NFL Week 14 - Dolphins won't flounder against 49ers

Two out of two on the NFL last week & we're going for three games this time as the regular season begins to draw to a close, nearly all the games are still meaningful though as teams look to seal playoff spots or get as high a seeding as possible. Follow us on Twitter @LikeBuyingMoney by clicking the Follow button at the top of the page or finding us on there, we love talking about the NFL & other sports.

Miami Dolphins @ San Francisco 49ers

The first game we're looking at doesn't look like it has the makings of a classic but that's fine by us as we reckon the Dolphins & 49ers game battle offers some value on the betting front. Miami's chances of making the playoffs are marginal at best while the 49ers are still looking good, sitting at the top of the NFC West but have to keep putting the wins on the board with Seattle chasing them.

(Miami's Karlos Dansby continues to rack up the tackles)

The 49ers look like they'll have a real chance of making the Super Bowl with their strong running game & stout defense that should serve them well as the weather gets colder but they're taking a big risk by switching quarterback from Alex Smith to Colin Kaepernick, especially considering Smith seemed to have really upped his game in the last 2 seasons with 30 touchdowns to just 10 interceptions. Kaepernick may have the greater value going into the future & he's certainly more dynamic than Smith but when your team look to be set for a championship run it is risky to make big changes & they have to bounce back after a rather ineffective attacking display & loss to the Rams last week. It won't be easy for the 49ers to score in this one either as their strong running attack, in the form of the irrepressible Frank Gore, comes up against the decent Miami defense that give up less than 100 yards per game on the ground.

The Dolphins are ranking 27th in terms of points scored per game with an average of 18.9 & rookie passer Ryan Tannehill, who started out reasonably has slumped a bit recently with just 3 touchdown passes in their last 6 games & overall he's thrown 7 scores to 12 picks. It has been a similar story for the Dolphins first choice running back Reggie Bush who started strongly but he's averaged under 50 yards a game for the past 6 weeks & they've only scored 30+ points twice this season. The Dolphins strength lies on defense & although they concede a few too many yards through the air they do well to limit opponents when in the red zone with defensive leader Karlos Dansby always ensuring intensity is maintained. San Francisco are coming off an overtime loss to the physical Rams & this game may not be the best one to have up net even with the Dolphins' limitations & with such a big handicap start, in a potentially low scoring game we like Miami with +10 points to beat the spread.

St Louis Rams @ Buffalo Bills

The Buffalo Bills host the improving St Louis Rams in this one but they've failed to pick up wins apart from against the dregs of the league (their 5 wins have come against opponents with a combined 17-43 record) & St Louis have only lost one of their last 4.

(Steven Jackson has got his groove back on in recent weeks)

That loss for the Rams came against the pretty poor New York Jets but it came after a gruelling tie (the first since the 2008 season) against the San Francisco 49ers & since then they travelled to the Cardinals & picked up a comfortable win before taking the 49ers out in overtime last week. The Rams look an awful lot better when their receivers are fit & although Danny Amendola is questionable for this one they still have a big playmaker in Chris Givens plus running back Steven Jackson has burst into life in the past 4 weeks with 3 games of 80+ yards rushing after none in his first 9 games. The Bills are awful at stopping the run, ranking 30th in the league & Jackson has to fancy his chances of racking up the yards & maybe even points (he's only scored 2 touchdowns all year).

Buffalo's quarterback Ryan Fitzpatrick has played reasonably well in recent weeks but he's been up against some accommodating defenses in that run whereas the Rams have only conceded 30+ points twice all year, when the Bills have faced top grade defenses (Houston & San Francisco) they've failed to score a touchdown. The Bills receivers aren't great & that means they've become heavily on CJ Spiller at running back, he continues to perform well every week but he'll be targeted here & we can see Rams linebacker James Laurinaitis having a big game. The Bills are basically a bit flaky & although they have home field advantage we like the look of the young St Louis Rams team & it's no surprise they have improved after a tough run of games, take the 7/5 on offer for them to win outright.

Tennessee Titans @ Indianapolis Colts

(Reggie Wayne has benefited from forming a great understanding with Andrew Luck)

For our final pick we like Indianapolis to give a beat down to the Tennessee Titans who've been conceding 29.9 yards per game & look to have little resistance to the run or the pass. Andrew Luck continues to impress for the Colts & he's become the first rookie passer to gain 8 wins in a season & he could add more to that, starting here. 5 of Tennessee's losses have been by 20 or more points & we think the Colts will put points on the board in this one as they chase a playoff spot, back them to win by 13-18 points at 7/1 & 19-24 points at 11/1 for a potentially big payout.

Selections:
Miami Dolphins to beat San Francisco 49ers with +10 points on handicap at 10/11 (Various)
St Louis Rams to beat Buffalo Bills at 7/5 (Betfred & Totesport)
Indianapolis Colts to beat Tennessee Titans by 13-18 points at 7/1 (BetVictor) & by 19-24 points at 11/1 (Ladbrokes)

Leeds lighting the way back to the big time?

We're back & so is the lower league action that we so missed last weekend with FA Cup games instead, we've actually only one game from below the Championship this time round but it's nice to have the betting options. Last weekend we had 3 out of 4 picks being successful (1 of 2 on the footy & 2 of 2 on the NFL) & we're remaining pretty red hot - if you're struggling for Christmas gifts for your friends & family you could always just let them know our web address! Follow us, if you aren't already, on Twitter by finding us there @LikeBuyingMoney or by clicking the Follow button above.

Derby County vs Leeds United

We were against Derby last weekend & they took a bit of a thumping against Leicester, we're not seeing too many reasons to side with them this weekend either as they host on a roll Leeds United who've won their last 3 in a row & look to have a real bounce in their step since their takeover was finalised.

(Luciano Becchio is becoming a true Leeds hero)

Derby have been solid at home with just one loss in 10 games but if you look more closely at the form you'd notice they've only won two games against opponents currently sitting in the top 10 all season & one of those was early on against Watford before the Hornets had settled down after a summer of change. The Rams have lost 3 of their last 5 & we've a suspicion that opposing teams have worked out how to stop them playing, which is by getting in & about their coveted young star Will Hughes & Leeds won't be afraid to bring out a physical aspect to the game.

After a run of 8 games without a win (although there were 4 draws & 3 losses by just a single goal in the sequence) Leeds have looked resolute & hugely tough in their past 3 games, coming up with wins against top sides in Crystal Palace & Leicester at home & then pouncing on fading Huddersfield away last week. Leeds' Luciano Becchio continues to be dependable up front & he's hit the back of the net in their last 3 games whilst Michael Tonge is playing some decent football again now back under Neil Warnock's management (previously at Sheffield United together). Odds of 21/10 with BetVictor & 2/1 at other firms are too big for a Leeds victory & it's well worth a wager this Saturday.

Coventry City vs Walsall

Down in League One, Coventry City host Walsall at the Ricoh Arena. Coventry are in 15th position but have picked up after a disastrous start whilst Walsall are in 19th & only one point behind.

(Mark Robins has got the Sky Blues back on track since his appointment)

After no victories in their first seven league games; Coventry relieved Andy Thorn of his duties & replaced him with Mark Robins. Robins faced defeat in his first match against Carlisle United but since then the record reads 6 wins, 3 draws & 3 defeats in 12 league games, with confidence now installed in the squad they have embarked on 4 wins in their last 6 in the league & 14 goals in the process. Attacking duo David McGoldrick & Carl Baker are in fine form with an impressive 15 league goals between them & seem to be enjoying their football in the process.

Walsall are really struggling at the moment & haven't recorded a victory in the league since September, that coming against Bournemouth, they came from behind last time out to draw with basement side Hartlepool United 1-1 to make it three consecutive draws which at least indicates a modicum of improvement. On the road all their victories came in the initial weeks of the season & they've found the net just 10 times in all away matches which has resulted in changes & leading scorer George Bowerman has been benched in recent weeks.

With the side brimming with confidence Coventry should have the beating of a struggling Walsall side & the best price of 37/40 with BetVictor is a value bet.

Treble time

(Taunton born (like us!) Ben Hamer can keep Charlton's goal safe against the Brighton attackers)

Finally, we know you punters love to have a treble so we'll add in an under 2.5 goals bet in the Charlton vs Brighton game in the Championship. 12 of Brighton's 20 games & 13 of Charlton's have had 2 or less goals in & Charlton now have a sequence of 5 games going under the total, in those 5 they've conceded just once & manager Chris Powell will be immensely proud of that seeing as he was a supremo defender himself.

Selections:
Leeds United to beat Derby County at 21/10 (BetVictor)
Coventry City to beat Walsall at 37/40 (BetVictor)
Under 2.5 goals in the Charlton Athletic vs Brighton & Hove Albion game at 4/5 (BetVictor)

A £10 treble at BetVictor would return £107.42 if all 3 selections are successful!

NFL Week 13 - Cardinals & Jets won't get up to speed

We're right at the business end of the regular season now with wins being enough to clinch divisions & playoff places whilst losses could mean the end of competitive football for some teams for another season. We're looking at two games as we look for more profit in the NFL season before the playoffs get underway.

With the apparent murder-suicide by Kansas City linebacker Jovan Belcher on Saturday http://www.nytimes.com/reuters/2012/12/01/sports/football/01reuters-nfl-chiefs-shooting.html?partner=rss&emc=rss it throws the Panthers @ Chiefs game into doubt & means our selections are irrelevant.

Carolina Panthers @ Kansas City Chiefs

More mediocrity! As we look at a game with two teams with just 4 wins from 22 games this season between them! The 3&8 Panthers are travelling to the 1&10 league worst Kansas City Chiefs in a game where both sides are striving to add a semblance of respectability to their season.

(Brandon LaFell is a dangerous deep threat for the Panthers)

The Panthers have had a pretty tough schedule & looking back at the teams they've lost to you'd probably only say that the loss in week 5 when at home to the poor travelling Seahawks was a bad one, they took red hot Tampa Bay to overtime two weeks ago & then beat down the Eagles (like most sides do at the moment) last week with star player Cam Newton starting to get his confidence back. Carolina have started to look better in recent weeks & have scored 20 or more points in 4 of their last 5 & even though winning only 2 they went down by just a single point to a strong Chicago Bears side in that sequence too.

The Chiefs have only scored 20+ points three times all season & rank stone last in points gained per game with just 14.6 & have fared pretty badly in points given up at 27.4 per game to rank 28th in the NFL. Atrocious quarterback play has been the Chiefs' downfall with Matt Cassel & (Not Tom) Brady Quinn combining for a grand total of 6 touchdowns between them & 16 interceptions thrown - it looks like Mr Quinn is getting the start here. Jamaal Charles has been great at tailback after returning from injury  in the last 3 weeks has run for 100, 87 & 107 yards but it just isn't enough to cover for the quarterback play that has meant they've had 21 more turnovers than their opponents over the season. They've been decent on pass defense & we've a lot of love for their cornerback Brandon Flowers but their rush defense hasn't been up to scratch & they'll struggle to stop Cam Newton taking off when he scrambles.

Carolina still need their running backs Jonathan Stewart & DeAngelo Williams to step up & help Cam Newton if they're going to become a more complete offensive unit but regardless they will have enough to trounce the Chiefs here & can easily beat them by more than the 3 points required on the point spread.

Arizona Cardinals @ New York Jets

The Cardinals haven't won a game since week 4 meaning they're on a 7 game losing streak whilst the Jets have cobbled together an identical 4&7 record but with their wins more sporadic - they have at times looked laughable & some of their play last week against the Patriots was simply appalling.

(Not Mark Sanchez's finest moment on the football field)

New York would have been particularly upset last week with the way the team simply went awol during the 2nd quarter & gave up 5 touchdowns to Tom Brady & New England, the Jets don't have enough weapons on offense to allow teams easy points. Mark Sanchez continues to be one of the least convincing starting quarterbacks in the league & he's thrown just 12 touchdowns on the year as the Jets rank 28th in passing yards. The Jets have in recent years prided themselves on their stout defense which has helped cover up their offensive flaws but this year they're giving up an average of 26.4 points a game to rank 26th & they've been awful against the run ranking 30th with over 140 yards per game against them. Season ending injuries to key players haven't helped the Jets, especially to awesome cornerback Darrelle Revis & the hugely talented, although troublesome, wide receiver Santonio Holmes - they were the team's best players by far on pass defense & offense respectively & their loss has been acute.

The Cardinals started off the season brightly with good defense & doing just about enough on offense but injuries to their quarterbacks & general poor play from them has blighted their season & their lack of passing threat has also made it difficult to run the ball either with them ranking 30th in rushing yards. Rookie passer Ryan Lindley looks like he'll start his 2nd game this Sunday even after throwing 4 interceptions & no touchdowns against the Rams last week, Kevin Kolb is still unfit & the season's starting QB John Skelton is now completely out of favour & rightly so. Their running backs haven't stepped up to help the passers either although injury has again affected them with Beanie Wells & Ryan Williams both having prolonged periods out, LaRod Stephens-Howling has had most of the carries but only has 3.4 yards per attempt whilst they've seemed reluctant to use 1st year back William Powell even though he's done well when seen. Beanie Wells made his return last week & that could help them out a bit, they need their running game to get going against this defense that is poor at run blocking especially with their best receiver Andre Roberts struggling with injury.

This is an uninspiring game between two struggling sides but the Jets do have a semblance of hope with their remaining 5 games (including this one) against mediocre teams & although it would be close to a miracle they could still, just about, make the playoffs - we don't think they will though! With poor offenses but decent pass defenses this looks set to be a low scoring affair & the points total is at just 37 points, we think it'll go below even that though with the 31st & 22nd highest scorers squaring off.

Houston Texans @ Tennessee Titans

The Texans continue to roll & have now got a record of 10 wins & one loss & even though their last two victories have come with overtime wins they face much more accommodating opponents in the Tennessee Titans this week.

(Andre Johnson is starting to become a dominant receiver again for the Texans)

We won't spend long previewing this one: we think the Texans are the best side in the league & are delighted our antepost bets sit with them to win the Super Bowl, their offense has begun to really fire in the past couple of weeks & they come up against the Titans defense that are giving up an average of 30.5 points per game - this could be a bloodbath! 9 of Houston's 10 victories have come by 6 points or more which is the handicap line in this one, back the Texans to rout Tennessee (as they did earlier in the season 38-14) with a -6 point handicap & confirm their playoff place.

Selections:
Carolina Panthers to beat Kansas City Chiefs with -3 point handicap at 10/11 (General)
Arizona Cardinals @ New York Jets to be under 37 points at 10/11 (General)
Houston Texans to beat Tennessee Titans with -6 point handicap at 10/11 (General)