Grand National 2013 - Get ready to bow for Balthazar King

The Grand National is THE annual betting event & it's always a great spectacle, we're taking a look at this year's renewal & seeing which horses really stand out from a value perspective. We love a bit of flat racing too & that's starting to get underway with the first two Classics of the season the 1,000 & 2,000 Guineas just a month away & we should be previewing that as well - keep up to date with our latest posts by following us on Twitter along with our other 1600+ followers @LikeBuyingMoney


Aintree 4.15 Saturday - The Grand National

(Balthazar King (winning at Cheltenham) knows how to jump unconventional fences & loves a stamina test - ideal for the Grand National)

You'll hear the same things every year about the National with plenty saying it's a lottery & anything could win but although we've seen three winners at 33/1 or bigger in the last 6 years the overall trend is that horses near the top of the market tend to go well & in general you want a horse aged between 9 & 10 although the odd 12 year old can win.

The horse that really interests us here is Balthazar King - a horse that hasn't competed at any distances less than 2m7f for the past three years & has undertaken some big time stamina tests over unusual obstacles in three of his last four runs when taking part in 3m7f chases on Cheltenham's cross country course. Of course the slopes & fences on that cross country course aren't Grand National fences but they do show Balthazar King can cope with a jumping challenge & is improving (fell on his first try over them but finished 1st & then 2nd) the next two times along with a win on Cheltenham's standard course in that four race sequence too.

Aintree is a far flatter track than Cheltenham & quite a different test but this race requires stamina & Balthazar King has that in abundance, with 10 stone 12 pounds on his back in this race compared to 11-8 last time this will feel easy in comparison for the 9 year old gelding, he goes well fresh too which eases any worries about 141 days off the track. The weights for the race were specially framed some time ago & we reckon the handicapper would like Balthazar King to carry a little more weight if he could reassess the field today, at odds of 20/1 Balthazar King looks a great value bet.

(Cappa Bleu - high class & very rarely out of the frame)

We were keen on the chances of Cappa Bleu last year & Evan Williams' horse is surely in with a top chance again this time especially when you see that Seabass is ahead of him in the market but only finished one place ahead last time & is now giving Cappa Bleu 9 pounds of weight compared to 2 in 2012. Cappa Bleu is very lightly raced for an 11 year old with just 11 runs under rules but has a Cheltenham Festival win (the Foxhunters) & has finished placed in 8 of the 9 races he's finished (fallen once in the Hennessy & pulled up once over hurdles at the 2010 Cheltenham Festival). With such consistency & the way he travelled around the course last year we've got to have Cappa Bleu as one of our runners at odds of 12/1, if Paul Moloney doesn't give him such a tender ride this time he'll be bang there near the finish.

Other horses to respect include: Imperial Commander - winner of the 2010 Gold Cup; Chicago Grey - another who looks laced with stamina; likely favourite On His Own - representing the powerful Willie Mullins & Ruby Walsh trainer-jockey partnership; & as outsiders we'd suggest Viking Blond (off a feather weight) & Joncol - a two-time Grade One winner both have a live chance of placing.

Selections:
Balthazar King each way at 20/1 (Ladbrokes & Coral)
Cappa Bleu each way at 12/1 (Coral & William Hill)

Cheltenham Festival 2013 - Day Four Friday

The final day of Cheltenham Festival  is upon us & after a great opening day for favourite backers it has got tougher for punters over the last two days although we've picked out 9/2 & 100/30 winning selections courtesy of The New One & Cue Card both winning impressively. We're onto the feature race of the meeting now & a super competitive betting heat as 10 line up for the 2013 Gold Cup.

3.20 - Cheltenham Gold Cup

(Silviniaco Conti looks classy & uncomplicated - a likely Gold Cup winner?)

This is jump racing's most coveted prize & this year's race looks a tough one to pick with the chief question being whether Bob's Worth can live up to his potential & beat more proven types. We always like an up & coming type but there's reasonable argument to be had that Bob's Worth doesn't offer an awful lot of value at the quoted odds & arguably shouldn't even be favourite when you start to scrutinise his form. Bob's Worth is of course two-time festival winner after winning the Neptune Novices Hurdle, beating Rock On Ruby in the process, & the RSA last year beating First Lieutenant. In both races Bob's Worth appeared to relish the Cheltenham Hill but Rock On Ruby was clearly outstayed & First Lieutenant continues to be slightly overrated as far as we're concerned & that one was slammed by Cue Card in the shorter distance of the Ryanair on Thursday. Henderson's charge won the valuable & prestigious Hennessy Gold Cup at Newbury & beat Tidal Bay & First Lieutenant (again) there but Newbury is a different type of challenge & Bob's Worth was getting 6 pounds off of Tidal Bay & that one can be an awkward one to win with anyway with his staying on at the death style. It's fair to say Bob's Worth is one we fear but want to oppose all the same!

Sir Des Champs was looking a very likely winner of this race for a time after an impeccable & always improving start to his racing career which saw Willie Mullins gelding win the hurdle for conditional jockeys at the festival in 2011 on just his 2nd start & then the Jewson Novices Chase with considerable ease last year. This season was tougher for Sir Des Champs as he came up against the very classy Flemenstar in the John Durkan Memorial on his first start of the year & was well beaten & then came only 4th in the Lexus when well fancied. On his last start however he bested Flemenstar in the Irish Hennessy & we like that form a lot even though it was only a select field, with proven Cheltenham form this one has to be accorded respect along with Bob's Worth & it would hardly be a surprise to see them fighting at the finish.

Long Run is a past champion & although the stats tend to be against horses regaining their title after losing it this one is young enough as he was the first 6 year old to win the race since the great Mill House in 1963 & Long Run has already won the 2nd most prestigious chase of the season in the King George at Kempton. There's always been a suspicion that Kempton may suit Long Run slightly better & with just one win from four starts at Cheltenham (3rd the other three times) it may be that something just outstays Long Run up the hill. As a former winner, & a brilliant one at that, Sam Waley-Cohen's ride deserves to be riding high in the betting but his Gold Cup win appears to have come against horses that were just going over the top in terms of their best (Denman & Kauto Star) & Long Run looks like a typical early maturing French-bred horse & he may never replicate that win again.

In our minds the horse with the most convincing form this season is Silviniaco Conti, it's slammed last year's 2nd & 3rd (The Giant Bolster & Long Run) in the Betfair Chase & then The Giant Bolster again in his prep race at Newbury a month ago. Paul Nicholls hasn't had a winner this week which is a slight worry but he hasn't had the firepower of previous years & a few of his horses have had decent runs at big prices suggesting that his string are in decent order. It's difficult to cramp Silviniaco Conti's form & this one just looks a straightforward type & exactly the kind of horse that Ruby Walsh will love to ride with him able to deliver it with a late charge after hold up tactics, at odds of 9/2 we like Silviniaco Conti to gain Paul Nicholls a 5th Gold Cup & his first since 2010.

(Captain Chris is a former Arkle winner so has the requisite class to compete)

The horse we fancy to provide a real challenge to the selection at decent odds is Captain Chris - a horse that looks a true 3 miler that will appreciate Cheltenham's stiff finish. Captain Chris won the Arkle in 2011, beating future Champion Chaser Finians Rainbow, before losing his way last season but this year has been far better. He won the Amlin Chase convincingly on seasonal debut & has since finished a very close 2nd to Long Run in the King George & was then arguably unlucky to lose out to Cue Card at Ascot when clouting the 2nd last & that form has been strongly franked with Cue Card's impressive victory in the Ryanair. At forecast odds of 14/1 Captain Chris is definitely an each way player but we'll be risky & take a chance on the forecast (reversed) with Silviniaco Conti - this one looks a battler & the race could play to his strengths.

Selections:
3.20 - Silviniaco Conti to win at 9/2 (General)
3.20 - Silviniaco Conti & Captain Chris reverse forecast (or Tote Exacta if that's your preference!)

Cheltenham Festival 2013 - Day Two Wednesday

The second day of the Festival & we'll see the shortest priced runner of the week as Sprinter Sacre lines up in the feature race of the day, that should be a spectacle but maybe not a betting proposition, instead check out our thoughts below for a guide to the day's racing. Tuesday saw us draw a blank as we opposed Hurricane Fly (the horse ran a mightily impressive race) & My Tent Or Yours just wouldn't go past Champagne Fever after travelling like a sure fire winner, it was only two selections though & we'll hope for better here.

3.20 - Champion Chase

Lets get this out of the way first - Sprinter Sacre is a monstrous horse in this two mile division & we're not keen to take on Henderson's wonder horse here, but there is possibly some value to be had in the 'without the favourite' market & that's what we'll concentrate on.

(Sprinter Sacre looks nigh on unbeatable in the Champion Chase)

Sizing Europe heads the without Sprinter Sacre market at a top price of evens & it's fair enough that he should as a two-time festival winner, first off in the Arkle & then following up (as many Arkle winners do) in this race two years ago. Some reckoned Sizing Europe to be unfortunate when losing narrowly to Finians Rainbow last year when short of room as they omitted the final fence & Sizing's form since has been impeccable since with two Grade One wins & three Grade Twos from 5 starts & a couple of those victories came over 4 furlongs further suggesting a relative stamina test (with soft conditions) will not be a problem. The key to winning the race without Sprinter Sacre however may lie in not taking that horse on at all & instead concentrating on getting that 2nd spot - it will be hard for Andrew Lynch not to at least try to take on Sprinter Sacre as he sits on a past Champion Chaser & that could mean this one gets tired before the end & the value could lie elsewhere.

Paul Nicholls' Sanctuaire has looked impressive at times this season but it was hard not to be disappointed with his last run at this track when finishing just 4th behind Sprinter Sacre in the Clarence House Chase & with very similar conditions in this race we have to look for another to finish 2nd. Mail de Bievre has only run once in the UK since 2009 after moving to Tom George's stable from France after previously being a bumper horse with Alan King but that run was one that was full of promise after going exceptionally well for a long way before tiring against Gold Cup prospects Silviniaco Conti & The Giant Bolster in the Denman Chase at Newbury. It certainly seemed like a step back in distance was what was needed for this one but dropping back a full mile isn't easy & they'll go a fair clip in this one, conditions however will help & the ground will be typical of the type it's run on in France, with a bit of market support we're going to side with Mail de Bievre to chase the favourite home at odds of 6/1.

(Mail de Bievre can plough through the soft ground to chase the winner home)

Wishfull Thinking ran a poor race at Kempton in the Desert Orchid Chase just after Christmas but either side of that has won well in soft conditions at this distance here at Cheltenham when slamming inferior rivals & then when beating some useful types including French Opera (giving that one 6 pounds) with a rousing finish, going away, at Newbury. The race here should be run to suit & Richard Johnson can ride his usual waiting race & pick off rivals as they tire towards the end of the race, Wishfull Thinking is a two-time Cheltenham winner already but is maybe not a big enough price to consider as value when you exclude the favourite. The horse crashed out dramatically at the 4th fence last year, wiping out a photographer (we were posted on the rails directly opposite & got a great view!), & isn't always the most fluent jumper so is just a little too risky a proposition.

2.05 - Neptune Investment Management Novices Hurdle

Another red hot favourite runs in the novices hurdle over 2m4f with Pont Alexandre heading the market at top odds of 7/4 & it's difficult to do down the chances of Willie Mullins' horse that won a Grade One over the distance on debut & then followed up with a facile success again over the distance in a Grade Two. Both of those wins came in heavy ground & Pont Alexandre made all so there appear to be no fears with regards tactics but we are reluctant to get too sucked in when the horse doesn't appear to have beaten any rivals of particular note.

(The Twiston-Davies's will be hoping The New One can win the Neptune)

We were at Cheltenham when The New One was narrowly headed by At Fishers Cross in a trial race for this in January & the form of the race looks rock solid with the pair pulling clear of two-time Grade Two winner Coneygree & the winner of the race now heads the market for the Albert Bartlett on Friday. The New One was maybe unlucky to lose that last race as he was only headed late on & had little time to try to battle back, he'd already won another two trial races for this, one in a class two here & another when smashing the field in a Grade Two at Warwick. Sam Twiston-Davies will need to be more patient with his charge in this one than he was when beaten by At Fishers Cross but with Pont Alexandre looking likely to be a target to aim at The New One can be delivered late & outbattle his less experienced rival, odds of 9/2 for a horse proven in conditions look decent.

Taquin Du Seuil is certainly a worthy opponent too as he's only been beaten once in his British racing career & that was by the potentially very high class My Tent Or Yours. Rule The World & Chatterbox are other big contenders but Puffin Billy was well beaten by Melodic Rendezvous last time & looks like he may be one to avoid for the time being.

Selections:
3.20 - Mail de Bievre to win without Sprinter Sacre at 6/1 (Paddy Power & Boylesports)
2.05 - The New One to win at 9/2 (Paddy Power)

Cheltenham Festival 2013 Day One - Tuesday

It's eventually here! Cheltenham Festival is upon us & there look to be some potentially amazing races in prospect & certainly some fancy betting propositions. Here we take a look at the opening day of the festival including the Champion Hurdle & the very first race, the Supreme Novices Hurdle.

Followers of the blog at last year's festival were rewarded with some nice priced winners in top races as we picked out Finians Rainbow (9/2) in the Champion Chase & Riverside Theatre (5/1) in the Ryanair plus the strongly advised bankers of Big Bucks (4/6) & Sprinter Sacre (10/11) who made those prices look hugely generous! Kumbeshwar (each way at 14/1) also picked up place money in the final race of the meeting & it meant winning bets in 5 of the 10 races we looked at over the 4 days. We'll be following a similar format this time around with picks for each of the feature races each day & another race or maybe two - with 27 races you can't expect to find winners in all of them & some races are best avoided altogether! We'll be going for quality over quantity with proper write ups & reasons behind our selections.

3.20 - Champion Hurdle

The Champion Hurdle looks to be another great race this year with 4 of the top 5 in the betting all re-opposing after taking part in the 2012 edition, Rock On Ruby won by nearly 4 lengths that time but is 3rd favourite here behind multiple Grade One winner Hurricane Fly & our favourite horse Zarkandar.

(Hurricane Fly would be a popular winner but he's not for us I'm afraid)

Hurricane Fly of course demands maximum respect after winning so many races in the top grade but we haven't changed our tune since strongly wanting to oppose last year, the Grade Ones he's repeatedly won (often with ease) have been lacking in quality & depth. In 'the Fly's' last ten races, outside of the two Champion Hurdles, the field sizes have been as follows 5,5,6,5,4,3,5 & 5 & the opposition has been nowhere near the standard of the field he'll face on Tuesday. He looked a little fortunate to win his first race of the season when Go Native fell at the last & his other races this year haven't been too competitive although he's won well. We didn't think much of the 2011 Champion Hurdle that Hurricane Fly won & we think if you take a look at the horses he beat that day you'll agree that none of them are or have been true top 2 mile hurdlers with most either stepping up in distance since or moving to chasing or simply not being able to compete against the current crop. There don't appear to be too many excuses for Hurricane Fly finishing 3rd in last year's race when he was well beaten & only two horses as old as him, 9 years, have won the race in the last 30 runnings - at a top price of 2/1 & with the ground looking to be coming up soft which will blunt his turn of foot we feel he's to be avoided & will be laying for a place at short odds.

Rock On Ruby won well last year with the previous two champions in behind (Hurricane Fly 3rd & Binocular 4th) plus Zarkandar was in 5th, it was by far the best performance Rock On Ruby had ever put in & whilst we liked his profile last time (advised in a forecast with Zarkandar) his form since hasn't been so great. Well beaten when stepping up in distance whilst trying to follow up at Aintree & then on seasonal debut by Zarkandar & Grandouet he gained a victory last time he won in the 32red hurdle at Doncaster last time out but looked likely to be beaten by Darlan before that one's fatal fall at the final hurdle. Harry Fry's charge should put in a bold display to hold onto his title but will find it hard to turn around the form of the International Hurdle.

(Zarkandar - mastering Rock On Ruby & Grandouet here in December can follow up in the big one)

We've been keen on Zarkandar ever since his debut when he won the Grade Two Adonis hurdle in smart style & then seemed to relish the Cheltenham hill when winning the Triumph on only his second outing & putting some smart types, including Grandouet, in their place. Last season was a more difficult one for Zarkava's (brilliant Arc winning filly) brother as Paul Nicholls took some time to get him to the track & although winning impressively in the Betfair Hurdle at Newbury a troubled preparation meant that the Champion Hurdle came a little too soon to show him at his brilliant best but the way that he made up ground after being far behind at the final hurdle was eye-catching. He fell at Aintree next time but has done everything right this year, winning when not fully tuned up & giving plenty of weight away on his first run of the season & then winning against Grandouet (again) with Rock On Ruby well behind, last month's win at Wincanton was strightforward enough & should have put him spot on fitness-wise. Zarkandar is surely the best battler in the lineup & the Cheltenham hill suits his strengths, along with the juice in the ground it all looks to be pointing towards Paul Nicholls' first 'real' Champion Hurdle winner (Rock On Rucby was trained by Harry Fry at a satellite yard) & odds of 7/2 look fair.

Grandouet hasn't managed to get back onto the track since the International Hurdle & that tempers enthusiasm somewhat but we still feel he's the biggest danger to the selection, coming from the powerful Nicky Henderson stable & looking a better prospect than Binocular who's always been a bit of a bridle horse & looks another a bit long in the tooth at 9 years old.

1.30 - Supreme Novices Hurdle

The Festival's curtain raiser will be met with the famous 'Cheltenham Roar' at the start & then the action gets underway, we've been thinking we may oppose the red hot favourite My Tent Or Yours in the buildup, purely on value grounds, but the closer we've got & the more we've studied, the more difficult he looks to beat.

(My Tent Or Yours can leave his rivals trailing in the distance)

Melodic Rendezvous has already won a Grade One at Sandown & slammed Puffin Billy at Exeter last time, who looked a prospect himself up to that point, & has outstanding bumper form too (finishing 2nd in the Punchestown Champion Bumper behind Champagne Fever). We're somewhat put off by the fact the Sandown race looked a little weak for the grade & (as mentioned in our followers blog) we've heard a whisper that there has been a virus scare with the horse & it's enough to put us off. (Melodic Rendezvous was withdrawn on Monday after a late (cough cough - we knew on Friday) bad scope)

Two Irish raiders look the chief threat to the selection with Un Atout unbeaten & coming from the awesome Willie Mullins stable, Jezki who's undefeated over hurdles & already an impressive two-time Grade One winner. Un Atout is all about potential with only two hurdle races under his belt & has been a short odds on favourite for both races, won impressively in customary heavy Irish ground, that means the ground should suit here but we don't know whether those two races will have prepared it for this rather more demanding test & we think you'll see the best of this one in future seasons. Jezki though looks a super horse already & has already done enough to suggest he'd be challenging for favouritism in a different year, he's beaten another contender here, Champagne Fever, well & that form looks solid judging on both horses subsequent defeats of Bright New Dawn who Jezki beat further than his rival did. With four hurdle wins already & smart form shown Jezki looks nearly a certainty to be placed & with William Hill offering 5 places on the race that could be a near enough risk free each way bet.

My Tent Or Yours though looks something else, Henderson's charge would have been well fancied if he'd lined up in the Champion Hurdle after his incredible victory in one of the season's most competitive & valuable handicaps where he gave weight away to all but two of his rivals & slammed them with consumate ease. That win was off a mark of 149 & you'd have thought he had a stone in hand of the handicapper that day which would already make him good enough to win this race in most years, he also has smart bumper form after finishing 2nd in Aintree's championship race & has taken that form to a higher level now hurdling. Softish ground shouldn't hold any fears even though surprisingly beaten on heavy at Newbury just after Christmas - that was a blot on his copybook but if you can forgive that the recent form looks top notch. At odds of 7/4 My Tent Or Yours can provide a nice winning start to Cheltenham Festival 2013.

Selections:
1.30 - My Tent Or Yours to win at 7/4 (General)
3.20 - Zarkandar to win at 7/2 (General)

Cheltenham Festival 2013 - Followers' Best Bets

Cheltenham Festival is great - I think that most punters can agree on that but although it can be a week where you can win a fortune there's also the potential to lose one too! We've asked followers to send their best bets of the week so you can keep track of how they're doing & who knows maybe we'll end up with a consensus on what the best bets are...

Here we go then, below you'll see the follower's Twitter name & their selection along with the race & day that race is on. Good luck to all of you (unless you're opposing our selections!). If you send your best pick of the week through to us on Twitter @LikeBuyingMoney we'll add to the bottom of this list below.

Followers' best Cheltenham 2013 bets:

(The Jeremy Scott trained Melodic Rendezvous is popular amongst our followers)

@Clive_Mallon - Reve De Sivola in the World Hurdle on Thursday at 5/1 (Ladbrokes).

@CMcKenna81 - Road To Riches in the Albert Bartlett Hurdle on Friday at 16/1 (SkyBet, Totesport & Betfred), he also likes the chances of Melodic Rendezvous (Supreme Novices) & Boston Bob (The RSA looks likely).

@andrewdeighan - Un Atout in the Supreme Novices Hurdle on Tuesday at 8/1 (General) (This is the Festival's opening race so good luck Andrew - hope it's a great start!).

@CTGBreathnach - is opposing Andrew above & going for Melodic Rendezvous in the Supreme Novices on Tuesday at 10/1. (Melodic Rendezvous is trained out at my hometown so I'll be trying to hear whether there are any local whispers - update: there apparently has been a potential virus scare so could be one to avoid)

(Talked up as a Gold Cup prospect last year, Hunt Ball goes for the Byrne Group Plate)

@AndyMehers - Likes David Pipe's potential handicap blot Ballynagour in the Byrne Group Plate on Thursday & the odds at time of checking were 5/1 (Ladbrokes & William Hill).

@bartiestagg - is going for Our Mick at 7/1 (Bet365 & William Hill) in the JLT Specialty Handicap Chase on Tuesday.

@stuie28 - liked China Rock with a run in the Ryanair (it doesn't go) but also Captain Chris in the Gold Cup on Friday at tasty odds of 16/1 (General). He also reckons Hurricane Fly & Dyanste are the lays of the meeting. (We agree with one of these so check back to find out!)

@OgilvieJamie - goes for Hunt Ball in the Byrne Group Plate on Thursday at 7/1 reckoning his owner will have placed him well to recoup some betting losses. (I've got Hunt Ball as a horse to avoid until his handicap mark drops a bit more)

@Broony_Steve - has three fancies in Bob's Worth (Gold Cup), At Fishers Cross (probably the Albert Bartlett Novices Hurdle) & Oscar Whisky (World Hurdle).

Cue Card can Out-Boxing Day Rivals in King George

Boxing Day is always a big day for sport with a full schedule of football & high quality horse racing, we're taking a look at one Premier League game plus a couple of Grade One races from Kempton as we look for some festive cheer.

Christmas Hurdle - 2.35 Kempton

This year's renewal of the Christmas Hurdle looks to be one where last year's novices try to make their mark as fully fledged Champion Hurdle contenders & we think it'll certainly be one of the upstarts to win this time. Punjabi is a previous Champion Hurdler but that was in 2009 & Henderson's charge has been off the track for two & a half years & we can't see him showing up well & Raya Star & Get Me Out Of Here are top handicappers but probably not quite at this level whilst Moose Moran is a no hoper.

(Countrywide Flame is tough & classy & deserves favouritism in the Christmas Hurdle)

After eliminating horses 5-8 from consideration we're left with the 4 & 5 year olds, Dodging Bullets has shown good form this season to win twice after competing at a very high level & running well in its first 3 hurdle starts at the beginning of 2012 but opposition here might just have the edge as he's twice finished behind Countrywide Flame already. Cinders And Ashes & Darlan finished 1st & 2nd respectively in the Supreme Novices at Cheltenham & Darlan then went & won very easily at Aintree in a Grade Two but it does have to overcome this being its first start of the season. Donald McCain's Cinders And Ashes one fair & square at Cheltenham but Darlan may just have a little more scope in the long run & either way it seems hard to imagine that Cinders And Ashes can turn around form with Countrywide Flame as John Quinn's 4 year old slammed it by 12 lengths in the Fighting Fifth at Newcastle. Countrywide Flame had been kept busy over the summer by running on the flat but gave the impression that he'd grown up a bit in that Newcastle race & he'd already shown great from last year when winning the Triumph & coming close to following up at Aintree, we're certain if Countrywide Flame was with a more fashionable trainer it'd be a shorter price than 2/1 for this so take advantage & get on.

King George VI Chase - 3.10 Kempton

The 2nd most prestigious 3 mile chase of the season nearly always throws up classy winners & is the key trial for the Gold Cup, we won't have 5 time winner Kauto Star competing this time but 2010 winner & 2011 runner up Long Run heads the betting at 2/1.

(Cue Card looks a strong King George Chase contender)

Long Run is the obvious starting point as the highest rated horse & we felt he'd regain the Gold Cup last March but it might be that the 2010 race took a lot of the horse as he did that as just a 6 year old, many ex-French horses show great form as younger horses over here but then fail to improve like more patiently trained runners. Long Run has only won once in his last 5 runs & that was all out holding off Burton Port, the form is all high class but the odds today are a little short especially as owner & amateur rider Sam Waley-Cohen continues to take the reins - he of course can do as he pleases but stable jockey Barry Geraghty would surely do a better job.

Long Run's stablemate Riverside Theatre looks to hold a great chance even though it's know as a two & a half miler as it looked like a real staying performance when winning the Ryanair at Cheltenham & he's repeatedly shone after a break. Kauto Stone however looks to be too short a price based on overall form although the win at Down Royal in November was the best it had been & may have indicated a step up, we still can't be backing the Nicholls horse in this one. The Giant Bolster is one that definitely has improved, finishing 2nd in the Gold Cup & then 3rd in the Betfair Chase but nthat still isn;t winning form & while it could run well is another we'll disregard. Grands Crus is the horse we fear most as he'd looked a true 3 mile star as a novice up until disappointing at Cheltenham, he flopped on comeback when red hot favourite for the Paddy Power but the money has started to come for David Pipe's grey in recent days & this track should be perfect for him if on his game.

We're instead siding with Cue Card as the youngest horse in the race looks to take it's classy form over a shorter distance & become a serious Gold Cup contender. Colin Tizzard's 6 year old unseated when taking on Grands Crus on its 2nd chase start but other than that has either won or when losing has only done so to the very best novices around in Bob's Worth & the spectacular Sprinter Sacre. Cue Card tore up trees when storming to victory in the Haldon Gold Cup at Exeter & we're unsure this will be a truly run race as many of the contenders are speed horses, if the race is run to suit we feel Cue Card will be the quickest come the end & can claim a brilliant success at odds of 11/2.

Fulham vs Southampton

Martin Jol's Fulham have won just once in their last 10 league games & come up against Southampton who are in relatively good form winning half their last 6 & their defence has improved massively to only concede just 5 in 7 after looking completely hopeless until the end of October, this promises to be an intriguing match up.

(Damien Duff is one of Fulham's old guard who can celebrate a win v Southampton)

Everybody knows that Fulham's away form is less than adequate but they're pretty solid at home usually & although they've lost 3 at home from 8 two of those came against top opposition in the form of Spurs & Man City. Fulham seem to have adopted a very attacking attitude with Jol now really molding the side to his style & the signing of Dimitar Berbatov looks an inspired piece of business, he's known to bully weaker teams & Southampton have conceded 20 in 7 away games even with their recent improvement. At the back Fulham look a bit of an ageing side & Schwarzer has been on the slide for a while & all 4 first choice defenders 30 or older & they're the 2nd highest conceders along with Southampton & Wigan. They were awful against Liverpool at the weekend, offering very little resistance but the Saints could be the right opponents for them to be facing here.

Southampton may be improved recently but that has mainly been at St Marys as they've won only once on the road & lost their other 6 games, their recent defensive improvement has also come at a cost to their attacking threat & star striker Rickie Lambert has scored just twice in 12. Of great concern to Southampton will be the injury to their captain & playmaker Adam Lallana who looks likely to sit this one out, he's very important to them but at least Gaston Ramirez has got fit & started to contribute, he adds a touch of class when on form. Southampton went down 1-0 at home to Sunderland on Saturday & only managed 2 shots on target in the game, Rickie Lambert will find defences more to his liking than Fulham's, they're a physical bunch, & he's struggled to get good service in recent games anyway. We're unconvinced Southampton can keep up their good defensive work & Fulham can take advantage in a game they need to win to get their season back on track, back them at a shades of odds on to win the game.

Selections:
2.35 Kempton - Countrywide Flame to win at 2/1 (General)
3.10 Kempton - Cue Card to win at 11/2
Fulham to beat Southampton at 10/11 (Betfred & Totesport)

Lower league & International winners all rolled into one!

We're back & after a pretty mediocre weekend last time ended our lovely run of winning weekend after running weekends we're trying to get back on track & we've got our usual football picks plus a horse racing one too! It's been a while since we turned to the horses on the blog as the flat season was a little disappointing in our opinion with pretty much just Frankel out in front & then the rest an awful long way back, the jumps are back though & we do occasionally hear things as we're situated right in premier jumps trainer country here in Somerset so we'll try to share when we can.

Stanjames.com International Hurdle

(Zarkandar & connections could be celebrating another win on Saturday)

This race looks like being the best it's been in many a year with three strong contenders for Champion Hurdle glory at the Cheltenham festival in March facing off against each other. We've a real belief in Paul Nicholls' classily bred Zarkandar, the half brother to Arc heroine Zarkava & think that he can win this before going on to win the big one at the festival.

Zarkandar could only manage 5th in the championship race last season whilst Rock On Ruby won the big one - there had however been health problems with various horses at Nicholls' Ditcheat yard in the buildup to Cheltenham & although Rock On Ruby was nominally his horse it was actually trained many miles away by Harry Fry who now holds his own licence & trains the horse in his own right. Zarkandar holds an advantage over Rock On Ruby anyway this time after winning on seasonal debut at Wincanton giving weight away all round & always holding the runner up, stablemate Prospect Wells. Rock On Ruby hasn't raced yet this season & it's a tough ask to win first time out in this company. The chief threat may instead come from last year's winner Grandouet who's already lost twice when taking on Zarkandar, coming 3rd in the Triumph in 2011 & then when getting brought down 2 fences out at Aintree when looking to be going just as well as the selection - we however weren't convinced Grandouet would necessarily have found enough to get past the battling favourite. Nicky Henderson's gelding hasn't however raced since last year's renewal & we think Zarkandar is the best of these anyway even without the fitness advantage so back him at odds of 5/4 for a nice win on the horses.

Leyton Orient vs Scunthorpe United

Down in League One, Leyton Orient entertain Scunthorpe United at the Matchroom Stadium. Leyton Orient are on 31 points & in 11th place whilst Scunthorpe are struggling in a lowly 23rd.

(Star Man Kevin Lisbie scored both goals in the 2-0 away victory at Bury)

The O's are in fanatstic form currently with five straight league wins & Russell Slade's side are brimming with confidence. The catalyst seems to be a change in formation to 4-4-2 which has allowed the team to get more crosses into the box for striking duo Kevin Lisbie & David Mooney to thrive & put away the goals. They have a combined 13 goals in all competitions & between them they have scored one or more in each of their last eight games including FA Cup matches. They have kept two consecutive clean sheets & have only conceded nine goals in ten home matches so look a good at both ends of the pitch.

Opposition Scunthorpe have suffered 12 defeats in their 21 league games & have only recorded four victories against sides in positions of 15th & lower. They have lost their last three league games against Bury, Doncaster Rovers & AFC Bournemouth with a disappointing 8 goals conceded. They have conceded 39 goals at & average of 1.86 per game & they won't be looking forward to the prospect of facing Kevin Lisbie & co. We expect Leyton Orient to be too strong for a poor Scunthorpe outfit at the best price of 23/20 at BetVictor.

Gillingham vs Fleetwood Town

This game in League Two sees the two teams that have conceded the least & 2nd least goals in the division as leaders Gillingham host Fleetwood Town who are sitting high in the table in 8th place but have only won one of their last 7 league games.

(Gillingham need to get skipper Danny Kedwell scoring again)

Gillingham have basically been the classiest operators in the league this season & they've lost only 3 times so far, being absolutely formidable on the road & not at all bad at home either although they're looking to bounce back after a shock reverse to Exeter last time they were at the Priestfield Stadium. The Gills started the season absolutely flying with 7 wins & a draw in their first 8 games & it was always going to be unlikely they could keep that pace going but they've still done well although they could do with captain Danny Kedwell getting back on the goal trail again although veteran striker Deon Burton has got 3 in the last 4.

The fast start  subsequent slowdown is a similar story for Fleetwood but their pace has really dropped off in recent games where they haven't been scoring enough to turn draws into wins (they've had 8 ties in 21 games, 2nd most in League Two). The fact that their left back Junior Brown is their top scorer shows where Fleetwood's troubles lie as they are pretty good at defending their own goal, you need a high powered attack to breakdown Gillingham usually & it looks a very difficult assignment. Back Gillingham at odds of 10/11 to beat Fleetwood & show why they are 5 points clear at the top of the table.

Selections:
Zarkandar to win the International Hurdle at Cheltenham 3.05 - odds of 5/4 currently
Leyton Orient to beat Scunthorpe United at 23/20 (BetVictor)
Gillingham to beat Fleetwood Town at 10/11 (Boylesports & Coral)

Grand National - Cappa can take the Bleu Riband

Saturday sees the biggest annual betting event of the year with the 2012 Grand National at Aintree & we have a strong fancy for the race, there's some decent racing beforehand though & we like Zarkandar in the Aintree hurdle.

(Zarkandar (centre) winning at Newbury with subsequent impressive Grade 2 winner Get Me Out Of Here in behind)

Paul Nicholl's 5 year old is taken to beat his older rivals here & prove his Champion Hurdle running to be all wrong. Nicholls' other runner Rock On Ruby won that Champion Hurdle at Cheltenham but the belief among the Nicholls' camp was that Zarkandar was by far & away their main hope, unfortunately his Ditcheat horses were a little under the weather at the time (Rock On Ruby was instead trained at a satellite yard) & Zarkandar didn't show up at all well beforehand & didn't give his true running, doing all his best work right at the end of the race. We're thoroughly unsold on the merits of last year's winner Oscar Whisky, he held off the returning Thousand Stars by a head that time & both of their form ties in strongly with Hurricane Fly, form that we'd argue was always overrated & now deflated thanks to Oscar Whisky & Hurricane Fly being comprehensively defeated at Cheltenham once they took on different horses rather than just each other or extremely weak fields. It could be argued that Oscar Whisky will be best suited to this 2 mile 4 furlong contest but we suspect he's only doen so well over the distance because so few top class horses even try it, apart from occasionally in this race. Zarkandar won at the meeting last year, stays on extremely well at the end of races & has the master jockey Ruby Walsh on board, odds of 5/2 are great value with trainer Paul Nicholls in good form at the meeting already.

(These are the sort of scenes we want to be seeing at 4.30, with Cappa Bleu returning victorious)

Cappa Bleu is our idea of the winner, a classy sort that has already shown he can handle tough conditions when 3rd in this year's Welsh National in horrible ground. Evan Williams' 10 year old is the right age as 4 of the last 6 winners have aged the same, he'll enjoy conditions more here than at Chepstow as the ground only looks like being on the softish side rather than heavy ground. Cappa Bleu hasn't been the easiest horse to train, with very few miles under rules on the clock but Williams has been sounding confident in the build up, reckoning that he now has him at hios very best. This is a horse that lined up for the Hennessy, that Denman won so marvellously, at odds of 12/1 & won a Cheltenham race, the Foxhunters, on his first start under rules - with such class we have to be keen with odds of 18/1 available in places. Of course Cappa Bleu could fall (this is the Grand National after all) but we don't see him being far away if he gets around & we're confident with regards to stamina & the ground. Dangers are obviously the Gold Cup winner Synchronised & Becher winner West End Rocker, especially with Alan King's horses going so well.

(Vic Venturi (right) proving he's a good jumper of these National fences)

With 40 runners & 30 fences people often say that 'anything' could win & 'it's a bit of a lottery' but if you look back through the stats 8 winners from the last 10 runnings have won at odds of 20/1 or shorter with only Silver Birch (33/1) & one of this year's runners Mon Mome (100/1) being the real upset winners. None of the real outsiders get us going much this time around but it is interesting to see Vic Venturi at odds of 66/1, Dessie Hughes's 11 year old finished 2nd to Follow The Plan in the Grade One Guiness Gold Cup at Punchestown last May & that horse won the Betfred Bowl here on Thursday. Rare Bob was behind in third at Punchestown yet is a shorter price here even though worse off at the weights & it could be worth taking a risk with a small each way bet on Vic Venturi who looks to have been targeted solely at the race & has won over these fences before in the 2009 Becher Chase.

Selections:
2.50 Aintree - Zarkandar to win at 5/2 (various)
4.15 Aintree - Cappa Bleu to win at 18/1 (Bet365 & Coral)
4.15 Aintree - Vic Venturi each way at 66/1 (various)

Cotton Mill is the Reel Deal

We had a horrible day at Aintree yesterday with Island Life unseating when having a great chance of at least a place in the Foxhunters, Kumbeshwar finishing 4th & one spot out of the places before Al Ferof let plenty of punters down with a strangely flat run. We're hoping to gain some compensation on Friday & are sticking with just one runner, Cotton Mill, a horse that let us down at Cheltenham by jinking & unshipping Denis O'Regan when travelling very well alongside the massively backed Simonside & well clear of the rest of the field. We were up at Cheltenham that day & Cotton Mill really was going as well as the winner, who ended up being one of the most impressive of the week, that isn't to say Cotton Mill would definitely have won but it's impressive form all the same. That links in with the favourite for this race as Fingal Bay beat Simonsig at Sandown in December although that race was run at a slow pace & was over 3 furlongs less than this. Fingal Bay is clearly a very high class sort (he won the Grade One Challow at 1/4!) but missed Cheltenham through injury & that has to be a slight concern with the shortish odds available here.

(Cotton Mill is taken to upset Fingal Bay in the Sefton Novices Hurdle)

Cotton Mill's trainer John Ferguson has the had the most incredible debut season, undoubtedly helped thanks to the horses he's been able to procure thanks to his former job as Shiekh Mohamed's bloodstock agent, but that doesn't take away from an outstanding 33% strike rate & a £37 profit to a level £1 staked on every one of his runners. Ferguson has kept that form up all season & his last two runners won on Monday, at odds of 11/2 with Stan James & 5/1 elsewhere it is worth taking a chance that Cotton Mill is as good as he looked at Cheltenham before ducking out, he was unbeaten in three hurdle races before that & hadn't given any indication of a wayward nature.

Selection:
4.15 Aintree - Cotton Mill at 11/2 (Stan James)

It's a Hard Knocks Island Life

(Al Ferof is a bit of a beast & can slam his rivals in the 4.50)

The national hunt season in the UK is drawing to an end & the last real big meeting of the year is here with Aintree's Grand National fixture starting with a cracking card on Thursday. We've picked out some likely types & we're mindful of the regular upsets with Cheltenham winners, it's a very different track compared to the Gloucestershire venue, that could be more prevalent this year with the soft underfoot conditions.

Hunter chases aren't usually the type of races that we like to get involved in, it's difficult to ascertain levels of form for horses that have been running in point to points & only sporadically under rules plus the amateur jockeys add another element of uncertainty but we do like the look of Island Life in the John Smiths Fox Hunters' Chase at 3.40. You need a good jumper to navigate these national fences & Island Life is certainly that with just one fall in 30 runs over jumps & is in good form of late with two low grade hunter chase wins at Warwick & Hereford by decent margins. Although those last two wins came on significantly better ground than this it is difficult to believe that soft ground will prove too much of an obstacle as he's one of Turtle Island's progeny (& they are nearly all mudlarks) & has three wins previously where heavy was in the going description. Gwanako is probably the horse to beat but the value lies with Island Life at odds of 16/1 with Paddy Power who are offering 4 places & quarter the odds.

(Kumbeshwar just failing to beat another of our favourites, Zarkandar, last year here at Aintree)

Kumbeshwar only managed third when we tipped him for the final race of the Cheltenham festival with one of today's rivals, Tanks For That, finishing 7 lengths in front that day but a 5 pound swing in the weights & the fact that Kumbeshwar is a baby at 5 years old suggests he's the scope to turn that form around. Nicky Henderson was likely to have had his two horses Bellvano & Tanks For That in prime condition for the Cheltenham race as it is named after his late father & Kumbeshwar has already run really well here at Aintree where he ran Zarkandar close in a Grade One hurdle last year. Kumbeshwar's jump wins have all come when the ground has been worse than good & also won on the flat three times at Southwell & once when it was soft at Carrick so these conditions will hold no fears for Alan King's gelding. King has been in good form over the past couple of weeks with 7 winners from 33 runners & 17 of those runners finishing in the 1st three places in their races. Paul Nicholls' Edgardo Sol is another youngster & has won over course & distance back in October but has raced over hurdles for the rest of the season & doesn't look particularly well treated seeing as those hurdle runs should have preserved his chasing mark. Kumbeshwar is as tough & genuine as you like & we'll be happy to have our money down at odds of 7/1.

The last pick is easy, Al Ferof is better than his rivals in the Grade One Novices Chase at 4.50, Menorah did finish in front at Cheltenham but he did decide to rather land on a fence there rather than going over it & we've no doubts he'll turn that form around. Menorah has been a disappointing type over fences, twice failing to complete from 5 chase runs & his only two wins coming in 3 runner fields. Al Ferof's connections were already saying he needed further than two miles before he ran in the Arkle which makes it mystifying that they decided to take on the outstanding Sprinter Sacre that day. Conditions are no problem here & this will be a good preparation for Al Ferof for next year when the King George at Kempton is on the agenda. We don't see Venetia Williams' mare Pepite Rose as a threat even though she has racked up 4 wins from 29th Feb, they were basically easy races & nowhere near this kind of standard. Al Ferof should grind this lot into submission & odds of 11/10 are Like Buying Money.

Selections:
3.40 Aintree - Island Life each way at 16/1 (Paddy Power)
4.15 Aintree - Kumbeshwar at 7/1 (various)
4.50 Aintree - Al Ferof at 11/10 (various)

Followers' best Cheltenham Festival bets

Our Twitter followers have been sending in their big fancies for the Cheltenham Festival & there are some that appear more than once, some that we like the look of & others that we're dead against but we'll be wishing the best of luck to all of them over the course of the four days & hoping that we can help out with our own selections. If you aren't already then you can follow us on Twitter @LikeBuyingMoney by clicking the follow button above & get to join in with these picks & keep up to date with our latest blog posts.

(Montbazon will give at least a couple of followers a nice start if he wins the Supreme Novices)

@danieltnash is going for a bet over the course of the week as he fancies Willie Mullins to be top trainer at a price of 5/4.

@StuartMilne9 has two picks going for Sir Des Champs in whichever race he runs in (which looks like being the Jewson on Thursday (4/1) & we're keen too!) plus Montbazon (15/2) in the Supreme Novices on Tuesday.

@Cian_k_1994 is also going for Montbazon (a horse Alan King is bullish about) in the Supreme Novices even though he's surely too young to be gambling his brains out!

@profitbet (Kevin) is going for Fortification at a massive 25/1 in the Cross Country Chase on Tuesday.

@BusbyBoy (Mark) is going for Sadler's Risk in (I presume) the Triumph Hurdle on Friday, he's 6/1 as we write this but I can say that we will be opposing this one.

@gazbish85 is going for Jessica Harrington's Steps To Freedom (7/1) in the Supreme Novices on Tuesday.

@markq78 is joining Gary above & going for Steps To Freedom saying that many Irish punters will have a great start if that comes in.

@Hinters (Andrew) is going for Grumeti (6/1) in the Triumph Hurdle on Friday & we also think that has a great chance along with Pearl Swan.

@Thomasfrombrum is going for some adventurous bets with a Long Run & Sprinter Sacre double & a Big Bucks & Buena Vista double plus Captain Chris each way at 40/1 in the Gold Cup.

@CMcKenna81 (Colm) is keen on Magnanimity in the 3 mile JLT Specialty Chase on Tuesday saying he was overpriced at 20/1 - he certainly was as 14/1 is the best price available now. He also fancies Cinders and Ashes in the Supreme each way & 10/1 is the price now.

@grahamandre reckons Menorah (11/1) has a top chance if he can sort out his jumping in the Arkle.

@toddycounago is on Prospect Wells (16/1) in the Supreme Novices & it certainly looks like we have a range of opinions in that race!

Midweek Money Grab - Victor Chandler Chase

We don't get too involved on the horses during the jumps season but still watch plenty & keep track of the form of horses & stables as well as keeping track of prices for forthcoming races & looking at this weekend we think we've got a nice bet in the Victor Chandler Chase at Ascot - not huge odds but will surely be shorter come the day.

(Finian's Rainbow can show he's a cut above this field & a real Grade One chaser)

Nicky Henderson has his horses in great form with 9 winners from 36 runners in the last fortnight & he runs last year's Arkle second Finian's Rainbow in this £105k contest, he's a general 7/4 shot but available at 15/8 with SportingBet. A top class hurdler, beaten just twice, he mde up into one of the best novice chasers around last year with the Arkle the only time he's lost over fences from 6 tries, in fact all 3 of the races Finian's Rainbow has lost have been at the top level in Grade Ones. His only run this seson came in the Grade Two Desert Orchid Chase at Kempton & he won well in the end after a really bad blunder at the 4th last beating two of his rivals entered for Saturday in Wishfull Thinking & Oiseau de Nuit. With that race under its belt Finian's Rainbow should be much fitter now & has been given a sensible amount of time between races, they'll have worked on ironing out any kinks in his jumping too.

Chief rival in the market is Paul Nicholls' Al Ferof, a horse unbeaten in his last 5 races but with just two chases under its belt, the last hurdle win came in the Supreme Novices at Cheltenham - a race where all of the main protaganists seem to have gone chasing this year. On paper Al Ferof's chase successes look impressive with a Grade Two on debut & then a Grade One last time, but they were both in noice company & the last race at Sandown looked a particularly weak affair for the grade, Al Ferof was successful by just a neck at short odds. He did show battling qualities that day & the 2nd has since run Cue Card relatively close showing the form to be of a decent level but we'd not hesitate to say Finian's Rainbow would beat Cue Card out of sight & that sows what Al Ferof is up against. Nicholls' currentform is also a concern with one winner from 16 runners & a couple of disappointing ones, it may be noting but is worth bearing in mind.

(Gauvain - best of the rest?)

Of the others both Oiseau de Nuit & Wishfull Thinking look to have it all to do, they couldn't beat Finian's Rainbow with fitness on their side & a big mistake thrown in so can be discounted. Somersby has good placed form in top company but his best win came two years ago in a trappy 4 runner novice chase, his trainer Henrietta Knight had a welcome purple patch at the start of the month wih 3 winners in 5 days but in general the stable is very much on the wane & the days of Best Mate & Edredon Bleu are becoming a distant memory. Forpaddydeplasterer hasn't won since the 2009 Arkle & looks to have serious issues having finished 2nd 8 times in 11 runs since, plus 3 times in a row before the Arkle. David Pipe's I'm So Lucky simply looks overmatched. The one that could be capable of an upset is Nick Williams' Gauvain & we wouldn't write off at odds of 10/1 on Betfair, he's talented but has never realy fulfilled his promise & it could be getting a little late now, however if the selection falls he's right up there with the rest.

Overall we can see that this is for the most part a relatively even contest............. between the rest. Finian's Rainbow stands out on form & Sportingbet's 15/8 shouldn't stand up for long, we'd expect 6/4 on he day so get it now, he can this on his way to being a real Champion hase contender.

Selection:
Ascot, Saturday 21st January, Victor Chandler Chase - Finian's Rainbow at 15/8 (Sportingbet)

Long Run to roar back to his best in King George

Hopefully everyone will have filled their bellies on Christmas Day meaning that Boxing Day is for filling your wallets & there is some outstanding racing at Kempton including the King George where young upstart & last year's winner Long Run takes on old master & 4 time winner Kauto Star. We've got a preview of the 3 Grade 1's & they are all great races on their own merits but will also serve as key Cheltenham Festival indicators - our best bets are below.

 (Overturn beat Binocular at Newcastle & can do it again at Kempton)

Kicking off the top class action is the Feltham Novices' Chase where two of last year's top staying hurdlers try to make the step up to genuine 3 mile chase contenders. Bob's Worth was the best of the novice staying hurdlers & Nicky Henderson's charge finished off with an impressive win in the Albert Bartlett over 3 miles at Cheltenham in March, he's raced just the once over fences winning a 4 runner affair at Newbury, beating Cue Card by a short head. That win was over 2m 4f & this distance will suit Bob's Worth better as he looked to have stamina in abundance when winning at the Festival, there has to be worries around his jumping though as there were two blunders at Newbury & there won't be room for error here with a brisk pace likely. Chief rival & our fancy, David Pipe's Grands Crus was only outshone in the staying hurdle division by the incomparable Big Bucks & was streets ahead of the rest of his rivals. Grands Crus travels like a dream which is key to doing well here at Kempton & has looked like a natural jumper so far especially last time at Newbury where his jumping got slicker the faster they went, we haven't completely bought into the hype surrounding him & if Bob's Worth can improve his jumping there could be an upset - we don't see that being here though & Grands Crus to win at 11/8 can get our betting off to a good start. We certainly can't see any of the horses outside of the front two in the market really contending, Silvinacio Conti is useful but looks weighted down by his form finishing a little way behind Cue Card on his chase debut & then winning a very weak Grade 2 at Wincanton where 2 opponents fell & another 2 pulled up out of the 6 runners.

(Grands Crus can keep getting better over fences & take the Feltham)

In the Christmas Hurdle we're less than keen on the chances of last year's winner & former Champion hurdler Binocular, clearly he's brilliant on his day but has flattered to deceive on too many occasions now & was well beaten by Overturn last time out in the Fighting Fifth at Newcastle. Overturn had been making hay against weaker opposition, galloping them into the ground before coming up against the top class Grandouet last time, we were most impressed by that display & although he was beaten by Binocular in this race last time McCain's charge looks to have grown into a stronger horse since then. There's an awful lot of buzz about Paul Nicholls' Rock On Ruby but although it has some great form, including finishing close up behind Bob's Worth & then First Lieutenant in two Cheltenham races but those were both over half a mile further & he could lack the toe needed against these two mile specialists. At odds of 5/2 it's worth backing Overturn to keep up his good form & bag his biggest win so far.

 (Reigning champion Long Run can keep his crown in the King George VI Chase)

 

The big one today is undoubtedly the King George VI Chase with Kauto Star & Long Run being taken on by Master Minded stepping up to the distance & Diamond Harry & Captain Chris trying to get to the top table of staying chasers. Master Minded is a big favourite here & when jumping fluently over two miles is one of the most exciting sights in racing but the brilliant form that saw him win the Champion Chase in outstanding style in 2008 & 09 is just a memory now, he;s still very high class but there's not an awful lot to suggest this step up will bring about a rejuvenation & at current odds Master Minded is not a betting proposition. Of the horses trying to make the step up we're keener on Captain Chris than Diamond Harry, the latter was out for the whole of last season after winning the Hennessy & although an excellent horse it's difficult to gauge how just how good & he was well beaten by the two principals in the Betfair Chase at Haydock. Captain Chris won the Arkle at Cheltenham & proved that form was right when following up at Punchestown, he jumped poorly at Exeter & ended up unseating Richard Johnson at the last when holding every chance even with the suspect jumping through the race, he's got two miler speed but has already won over 4 furlongs further & looks like the step up could suit, with 1/4 odds available he's worth an each way bet at 7/1 but isn't our pick.

Kauto Star is an undoubted great & won this race 4 times in a row between 2006 & 2009 as well as the Gold Cup in 2007 & 2009, there was frivolous talk that retirement was on the cards if he didn't shine in the Betfair Chase but he came back with a vengance, jumping & travelling like a dream & beating Long Run fair & square. It blew this matchup wide open as Long Run looked to have taken up the mantle with his breathtaking victories in this & the Gold Cup, Kauto's win was his first in a year with te one before being at Down Royal in November 2010 so there are still questions to be answered. Long Run was talked of as a Gold cup horse from the moment he was brought across from France & more than justified that confidence last year, there's still room for improvement as he's a baby at just 6 years old & the youngest horse in the race & with Nicky Henderson insisting he wasn't fully wound up for Haydock can be expected to strip much fitter here. Kauto Star is 12 years old now & is clearly still right there at the top of the chasing tree but it seems a lot to ask to repeat his Haydock performance & whilst it wouldn't be the greatest shock to see him win we're staying with his half his age rival Long Run & he can win in style at odds of 11/8.

Selections:
Kempton 2.00 - Grands Crus to win at 11/8 (various)
Kempton 2.35 - Overturn to win at 5/2 (Coral)
Kempton 3.10 - Long Run to win at 11/8 (general)

Racing from Cheltenham - Grab a Grandouet!

Saturday sees the concluding day of Cheltenham's 'The International' meeting, we're not entirely sure what makes it quite so cosmopolitan, other than the Irish horses it's about as international as the baseball World Series! That's irrelevant though as any Cheltenham meeting is high class & the top course is a great home for jump racing, we've got what we think is a great bet in one of the top races of the day. Our man Seb is there this Saturday & will be tweeting out if he sees any horses looking great, or if he catches some real racecourse buzz - follow us on twitter @likebuyingmoney to keep up to date with our latest blogposts & for general sports & betting conversation.

 (Menorah's back over hurdles, but why did they go chasing if he's that good a hurdler?)

The 2m 5f Grade 3 chase looks the big betting race of the day but we're much more interested in the following race - the Grade 2 hurdle over two miles between some of the top established hurdlers & best second season hurdlers. Phillip Hobbs' 6 year old Menorah won this race last year & the 2010 Supreme Novices winner was all the rage for the Champion Hurdle in March going off at 3/1 second favourite behind winner & 11/4 fav Hurricane Fly. When it came to the big day Menorah didn't look quick enough to deal with the very best & a quick look at the horses he'd beaten in his previous races shows you his level of form was a little overrated. Menorah would still have a great chance if running to its best but there must be a reason they went chasing with it last time, there must be a doubt with regards to whether he's really at the top of the hurdling tree.

The other established horse at the top of the betting is Overturn who's been in great form this season, rattling off three front running wins in some style including the Grade 1 Fighting Fifth at Newcastle beating former Champion Hurdler Binocular in the process. Those wins have looked impressive partly due to the style used grinding the opposition down off a strong pace & watching them drop away but we shouldn't get overexcited, Binocular has let down supporters on so many occasions it's scary & the previous two wins came against some very ordinary opposition. Overturn went off 40/1 for the Champion Hurdle here yet is priced up the same as Menorah, there's not enough to suggest Donald McCain's charge has improved that much & we'll leave alone, the Grade 1 penalties that both him & Menorah carry are offputting too.

(Grandouet can make it a great day for rider Barry Geraghty, trainer Nicky Henderson & Like Buying Money followers with a win in Cheltenham's International Hurdle)

We're much keener on the young pair of Paul Nicholls' Brampour & Nicky Henderson's Grandouet, both ran in the Triumph Hurdle at this year's festival with Brampour finishing 9th & Grandouet faring better in getting 3rd behind the imperious looking Zarkandar. Brampour seems to have really stepped up this season winning a Listed handicap at Ascot & then the Greatwood Hurdle here over the same distance last time both under today's promising rider Harry Derham, he doesn't get to use his valuable 7 pound claim here though. Brampour's sire Daylami seems to get some really excellent hurdlers & this could be another one, it would be another step up but we think the strong pace likely to be set up by Overturn will suit, unfortunately for Brampour rival Grandouet will also relish it & might be that bit better.

Grandouet was pretty well fancied for the Triumph & was not disgraced behind two horses with great flat pedigrees & speed, he was then travelling well when brought down at the last at Aintree when looking for revenge against Zarkandar before winning the Grade 1 novice hurdle at Punchestown in striking style. We & many others thought he'd certainly have beaten Celestial Halo if not for falling 2 out on its comeback run in the Kingwell at Wincanton & had a confidence booster last time when winning with consumate ease at Haydock. He looks a very classy sort & will make the most of the 4 pounds received from Menorah & Overturn, we think he's got Brampour's measure as well but there could be a bit of a battle so think a small bet on the reverse forecast of Grandouet & Brampour is worth a bet plus taking Grandouet to win at 3/1 with a smooth victory that will see us & you as some very happy punters.

Selections:
Cheltenham 3.05 - Grandouet to win at 3/1 (various)
Cheltenham 3.05 - Grandouet/Brampour reverse forecast

Win a Load on the Paddy Power Gold Cup

The Paddy Power Gold Cup meeting is one of the national junt early season highlights & this year's feature race looks as competitive as ever, even with Paul Nicholl's running highly rated Poquelin meaning that 9 of the runners race from outside of the handicap. We've tried to find a value angle in the race along with a decent Listed contest on the all weather at Lingfield.

 (Loosen My Load has a great chance at odds of 16/1)

Starting with the Grade 3 handicap the Paddy Power Gold Cup at Cheltenham it's clear that top weight Poquelin is a classy sort & this is his type of contest, having finished 2nd & 5th in the race for the last two years & having 5 chase wins at Cheltenham to his name. Poquelin was favourite for the Charlie Hall chase at Sandown last time out but could only finish 5th, that first run of the season may have been needed & he definitely has a chance here, the huge prices available seem more to do with Nicholls' other runner Mon Parrain being highly fancied & 7 pound claimer David Prichard being on board instead of Ruby Walsh, at 28/1 Poquelin offers such good value it's impossible to ignore.

The other horse we like in the contest is Henry De Bromhead's Loosen My Load, he was good enough to finish 3rd in the Jewson Novices Chase at the Festival, the 2nd that day, Wishfull Thinking, takes part here but has to carry 11 pounds more in comparison & that should allow Loosen My Load to turn that form around. He finished 2nd last time out when odds on but the winner there West With The Wind is a very progressive type & made the most of the tactical 4 runner affair. After Cheltenham Loosen My Load was good enough to finish 2nd in the Grade 1 Powers Gold Cup at Fairyhouse & is another that is overpriced at 16/1. Take advantage of the best prices for both Poquelin & Loosen My Load with sponsors Paddy Power or Bet365 who offer 5 places also meaning each way bets are the way to go.

Lingfield hosts the 6 furlong Listed Golden Rose Stakes & we're going for another horse at a huge price in David Evans' Norville. Rated at just 62 back in February this year & without a win until his 17th race Norville has won 6 times since then & has risen to a current rating of 97 in what has been an incredible rise, he's not won in the last 5 races but has been in some good contests including the Group 3 Phoenix Stakes at the Curragh. On official ratings Secret Asset should pick this lot up & carry them but has run some stinkers & has the outside draw which mightn't suit his running style. Norville is also drawn wide but will appreciate the return to the all weather surface & is available at a huge 25/1.

Selections:
Cheltenham 2.35 - Poquelin each way at 28/1 (Paddy Power & Bet365 offering 5 places)
Cheltenham 2.35 - Loosen My Load each way at 16/1 (Paddy Power & Bet365 offering 5 places)
Lingfield 2.50 - Norville each way at 25/1 (Boylesports & Ladbrokes)

Its Business, its Business Time!

It seems to have come around pretty quickly but the jumps season is well & truly underway again with Ascot having two Listed races & a Grade 3 & Wetherby having a Listed hurdle & two Grade 2's including the Charlie Hall Chase. We've just a couple of bets today but we think their good ones & think we've got the markets beaten with the value on offer.

(Tough & classy Kumbeshwar (left) can have his day at Ascot)

The Listed handicap hurdle at Ascot looks competitive at first glance with some decent types that have plenty of winning form about them. Top weight Topolski is unbeaten over hurdles, starting out winning a very steadily run novice at Sandown in which red hot favourite Megastar could only finish 3rd, Topolski went on to win at Newton Abbot before a big step up to win a Grade 2 on Grand National day at Aintree. That Grade 2 looked pretty weak for the money on offer & that sometimes happens with the meeting's proximity to the Cheltenham Festival, however Topolski did what was required & has had a pipe opener with a run on the flat at Newmarket, he struggled there & tailed in last but should be fit here, with a flat rating of 90 he always had a chance of being high class over this different code & is fairly weighted on a mark of 150. Others of interest are Gary Moore's tough Via Galilei & Paul Nicholls' highly tried Brampour, last seen finishing 9th in Topolski's Aintree victory, he has a 5 pound swing & Ascot may suit this Daylami gelding better.

All the previously mentioned have chances but we're hugely keen one chances of Alan King's Kumbeshwar, a horse with form of the highest calibre over hurdles. Kumbeshwar won its first race over hurdles, getting outpaced before storming through impressively & although that remains its only win the subsequent form is top notch. King's charge was next beaten in somewhat unsuitable heavy ground by 148 rated Houblon Des Obeaux, then finished 3rd in the Grade 2 Adonis hurdle with the winner being Triumph Hurdle winner Zarkandar. We then rated Kumbeshwar our best bet of the Festival at 33/1 when edged out by a neck by handicap blot What A Charm in the Fred Winter at Cheltenham, he carried top weight of 11"10 & giving 18 pounds to the winner, putting up a great front running performance. He then finished 2nd in Grade 1's at Aintree & Punchestown & looks to be exceptionally well treated off a mark of 145 here, if this comes down to any kind of battle we'd expect him to tough it out & he could well not see another horse if Robert Thornton sets him out in front, at 7/1 we are definitely on.

 (Time For Rupert can jump his way into the Cheltenham Gold Cup picture with victory in the Charlie Hall Chase at Wetherby)

In the Charlie Hall Chase at Wetherby we only have eyes for one horse, many people's Cheltenham banker after an exceptional transition from staying hurdler to novice chaser Time For Rupert was one of the big let downs of 2011's Festival but had legitimate excuses. He was said to have broken a blood vessel in the race, the Grade 1 RSA Chase, & it definitely seemed like that happened when watching, however still finished 5th and was beaten just 6 lengths in the end. If Paul Webber has him over his problems we think he can beat last year's winner the very in & out Nacarat, a horse that when he's good he's very good jumping beautifully & travelling impressively, unfortuantely for backers Nacarat also loves running plenty of stinkers & we'd avoid betting in races he's in usually. The favourite for this one looks like being Diamond Harry who has been off the track since winning the 2010 Hennessy Gold Cup, another horse to be stepped up to chasing to avoid Big Bucks in the hurdling division, he's clearly very classy but having had 11 months off doesn't endear him to us & Time For Rupert has the potential to be a genuine superstar, a win here at 3/1 can set him on his way to the Gold Cup in March.

Selections:
3.00 Ascot - Kumbeshwar at 7/1 (general)
3.20 Wetherby - Time For Rupert at 3/1 (general)

A £10 double on the above selections could return £320 winnings - get on!