3.20 - Cheltenham Gold Cup
(Silviniaco Conti looks classy & uncomplicated - a likely Gold Cup winner?)
This is jump racing's most coveted prize & this year's race looks a tough one to pick with the chief question being whether Bob's Worth can live up to his potential & beat more proven types. We always like an up & coming type but there's reasonable argument to be had that Bob's Worth doesn't offer an awful lot of value at the quoted odds & arguably shouldn't even be favourite when you start to scrutinise his form. Bob's Worth is of course two-time festival winner after winning the Neptune Novices Hurdle, beating Rock On Ruby in the process, & the RSA last year beating First Lieutenant. In both races Bob's Worth appeared to relish the Cheltenham Hill but Rock On Ruby was clearly outstayed & First Lieutenant continues to be slightly overrated as far as we're concerned & that one was slammed by Cue Card in the shorter distance of the Ryanair on Thursday. Henderson's charge won the valuable & prestigious Hennessy Gold Cup at Newbury & beat Tidal Bay & First Lieutenant (again) there but Newbury is a different type of challenge & Bob's Worth was getting 6 pounds off of Tidal Bay & that one can be an awkward one to win with anyway with his staying on at the death style. It's fair to say Bob's Worth is one we fear but want to oppose all the same!
Sir Des Champs was looking a very likely winner of this race for a time after an impeccable & always improving start to his racing career which saw Willie Mullins gelding win the hurdle for conditional jockeys at the festival in 2011 on just his 2nd start & then the Jewson Novices Chase with considerable ease last year. This season was tougher for Sir Des Champs as he came up against the very classy Flemenstar in the John Durkan Memorial on his first start of the year & was well beaten & then came only 4th in the Lexus when well fancied. On his last start however he bested Flemenstar in the Irish Hennessy & we like that form a lot even though it was only a select field, with proven Cheltenham form this one has to be accorded respect along with Bob's Worth & it would hardly be a surprise to see them fighting at the finish.
Long Run is a past champion & although the stats tend to be against horses regaining their title after losing it this one is young enough as he was the first 6 year old to win the race since the great Mill House in 1963 & Long Run has already won the 2nd most prestigious chase of the season in the King George at Kempton. There's always been a suspicion that Kempton may suit Long Run slightly better & with just one win from four starts at Cheltenham (3rd the other three times) it may be that something just outstays Long Run up the hill. As a former winner, & a brilliant one at that, Sam Waley-Cohen's ride deserves to be riding high in the betting but his Gold Cup win appears to have come against horses that were just going over the top in terms of their best (Denman & Kauto Star) & Long Run looks like a typical early maturing French-bred horse & he may never replicate that win again.
In our minds the horse with the most convincing form this season is Silviniaco Conti, it's slammed last year's 2nd & 3rd (The Giant Bolster & Long Run) in the Betfair Chase & then The Giant Bolster again in his prep race at Newbury a month ago. Paul Nicholls hasn't had a winner this week which is a slight worry but he hasn't had the firepower of previous years & a few of his horses have had decent runs at big prices suggesting that his string are in decent order. It's difficult to cramp Silviniaco Conti's form & this one just looks a straightforward type & exactly the kind of horse that Ruby Walsh will love to ride with him able to deliver it with a late charge after hold up tactics, at odds of 9/2 we like Silviniaco Conti to gain Paul Nicholls a 5th Gold Cup & his first since 2010.
(Captain Chris is a former Arkle winner so has the requisite class to compete)
The horse we fancy to provide a real challenge to the selection at decent odds is Captain Chris - a horse that looks a true 3 miler that will appreciate Cheltenham's stiff finish. Captain Chris won the Arkle in 2011, beating future Champion Chaser Finians Rainbow, before losing his way last season but this year has been far better. He won the Amlin Chase convincingly on seasonal debut & has since finished a very close 2nd to Long Run in the King George & was then arguably unlucky to lose out to Cue Card at Ascot when clouting the 2nd last & that form has been strongly franked with Cue Card's impressive victory in the Ryanair. At forecast odds of 14/1 Captain Chris is definitely an each way player but we'll be risky & take a chance on the forecast (reversed) with Silviniaco Conti - this one looks a battler & the race could play to his strengths.
Selections:
3.20 - Silviniaco Conti to win at 9/2 (General)
3.20 - Silviniaco Conti & Captain Chris reverse forecast (or Tote Exacta if that's your preference!)
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