Cheltenham Festival 2013 - Day Four Friday

The final day of Cheltenham Festival  is upon us & after a great opening day for favourite backers it has got tougher for punters over the last two days although we've picked out 9/2 & 100/30 winning selections courtesy of The New One & Cue Card both winning impressively. We're onto the feature race of the meeting now & a super competitive betting heat as 10 line up for the 2013 Gold Cup.

3.20 - Cheltenham Gold Cup

(Silviniaco Conti looks classy & uncomplicated - a likely Gold Cup winner?)

This is jump racing's most coveted prize & this year's race looks a tough one to pick with the chief question being whether Bob's Worth can live up to his potential & beat more proven types. We always like an up & coming type but there's reasonable argument to be had that Bob's Worth doesn't offer an awful lot of value at the quoted odds & arguably shouldn't even be favourite when you start to scrutinise his form. Bob's Worth is of course two-time festival winner after winning the Neptune Novices Hurdle, beating Rock On Ruby in the process, & the RSA last year beating First Lieutenant. In both races Bob's Worth appeared to relish the Cheltenham Hill but Rock On Ruby was clearly outstayed & First Lieutenant continues to be slightly overrated as far as we're concerned & that one was slammed by Cue Card in the shorter distance of the Ryanair on Thursday. Henderson's charge won the valuable & prestigious Hennessy Gold Cup at Newbury & beat Tidal Bay & First Lieutenant (again) there but Newbury is a different type of challenge & Bob's Worth was getting 6 pounds off of Tidal Bay & that one can be an awkward one to win with anyway with his staying on at the death style. It's fair to say Bob's Worth is one we fear but want to oppose all the same!

Sir Des Champs was looking a very likely winner of this race for a time after an impeccable & always improving start to his racing career which saw Willie Mullins gelding win the hurdle for conditional jockeys at the festival in 2011 on just his 2nd start & then the Jewson Novices Chase with considerable ease last year. This season was tougher for Sir Des Champs as he came up against the very classy Flemenstar in the John Durkan Memorial on his first start of the year & was well beaten & then came only 4th in the Lexus when well fancied. On his last start however he bested Flemenstar in the Irish Hennessy & we like that form a lot even though it was only a select field, with proven Cheltenham form this one has to be accorded respect along with Bob's Worth & it would hardly be a surprise to see them fighting at the finish.

Long Run is a past champion & although the stats tend to be against horses regaining their title after losing it this one is young enough as he was the first 6 year old to win the race since the great Mill House in 1963 & Long Run has already won the 2nd most prestigious chase of the season in the King George at Kempton. There's always been a suspicion that Kempton may suit Long Run slightly better & with just one win from four starts at Cheltenham (3rd the other three times) it may be that something just outstays Long Run up the hill. As a former winner, & a brilliant one at that, Sam Waley-Cohen's ride deserves to be riding high in the betting but his Gold Cup win appears to have come against horses that were just going over the top in terms of their best (Denman & Kauto Star) & Long Run looks like a typical early maturing French-bred horse & he may never replicate that win again.

In our minds the horse with the most convincing form this season is Silviniaco Conti, it's slammed last year's 2nd & 3rd (The Giant Bolster & Long Run) in the Betfair Chase & then The Giant Bolster again in his prep race at Newbury a month ago. Paul Nicholls hasn't had a winner this week which is a slight worry but he hasn't had the firepower of previous years & a few of his horses have had decent runs at big prices suggesting that his string are in decent order. It's difficult to cramp Silviniaco Conti's form & this one just looks a straightforward type & exactly the kind of horse that Ruby Walsh will love to ride with him able to deliver it with a late charge after hold up tactics, at odds of 9/2 we like Silviniaco Conti to gain Paul Nicholls a 5th Gold Cup & his first since 2010.

(Captain Chris is a former Arkle winner so has the requisite class to compete)

The horse we fancy to provide a real challenge to the selection at decent odds is Captain Chris - a horse that looks a true 3 miler that will appreciate Cheltenham's stiff finish. Captain Chris won the Arkle in 2011, beating future Champion Chaser Finians Rainbow, before losing his way last season but this year has been far better. He won the Amlin Chase convincingly on seasonal debut & has since finished a very close 2nd to Long Run in the King George & was then arguably unlucky to lose out to Cue Card at Ascot when clouting the 2nd last & that form has been strongly franked with Cue Card's impressive victory in the Ryanair. At forecast odds of 14/1 Captain Chris is definitely an each way player but we'll be risky & take a chance on the forecast (reversed) with Silviniaco Conti - this one looks a battler & the race could play to his strengths.

Selections:
3.20 - Silviniaco Conti to win at 9/2 (General)
3.20 - Silviniaco Conti & Captain Chris reverse forecast (or Tote Exacta if that's your preference!)

Cue Card can Out-Boxing Day Rivals in King George

Boxing Day is always a big day for sport with a full schedule of football & high quality horse racing, we're taking a look at one Premier League game plus a couple of Grade One races from Kempton as we look for some festive cheer.

Christmas Hurdle - 2.35 Kempton

This year's renewal of the Christmas Hurdle looks to be one where last year's novices try to make their mark as fully fledged Champion Hurdle contenders & we think it'll certainly be one of the upstarts to win this time. Punjabi is a previous Champion Hurdler but that was in 2009 & Henderson's charge has been off the track for two & a half years & we can't see him showing up well & Raya Star & Get Me Out Of Here are top handicappers but probably not quite at this level whilst Moose Moran is a no hoper.

(Countrywide Flame is tough & classy & deserves favouritism in the Christmas Hurdle)

After eliminating horses 5-8 from consideration we're left with the 4 & 5 year olds, Dodging Bullets has shown good form this season to win twice after competing at a very high level & running well in its first 3 hurdle starts at the beginning of 2012 but opposition here might just have the edge as he's twice finished behind Countrywide Flame already. Cinders And Ashes & Darlan finished 1st & 2nd respectively in the Supreme Novices at Cheltenham & Darlan then went & won very easily at Aintree in a Grade Two but it does have to overcome this being its first start of the season. Donald McCain's Cinders And Ashes one fair & square at Cheltenham but Darlan may just have a little more scope in the long run & either way it seems hard to imagine that Cinders And Ashes can turn around form with Countrywide Flame as John Quinn's 4 year old slammed it by 12 lengths in the Fighting Fifth at Newcastle. Countrywide Flame had been kept busy over the summer by running on the flat but gave the impression that he'd grown up a bit in that Newcastle race & he'd already shown great from last year when winning the Triumph & coming close to following up at Aintree, we're certain if Countrywide Flame was with a more fashionable trainer it'd be a shorter price than 2/1 for this so take advantage & get on.

King George VI Chase - 3.10 Kempton

The 2nd most prestigious 3 mile chase of the season nearly always throws up classy winners & is the key trial for the Gold Cup, we won't have 5 time winner Kauto Star competing this time but 2010 winner & 2011 runner up Long Run heads the betting at 2/1.

(Cue Card looks a strong King George Chase contender)

Long Run is the obvious starting point as the highest rated horse & we felt he'd regain the Gold Cup last March but it might be that the 2010 race took a lot of the horse as he did that as just a 6 year old, many ex-French horses show great form as younger horses over here but then fail to improve like more patiently trained runners. Long Run has only won once in his last 5 runs & that was all out holding off Burton Port, the form is all high class but the odds today are a little short especially as owner & amateur rider Sam Waley-Cohen continues to take the reins - he of course can do as he pleases but stable jockey Barry Geraghty would surely do a better job.

Long Run's stablemate Riverside Theatre looks to hold a great chance even though it's know as a two & a half miler as it looked like a real staying performance when winning the Ryanair at Cheltenham & he's repeatedly shone after a break. Kauto Stone however looks to be too short a price based on overall form although the win at Down Royal in November was the best it had been & may have indicated a step up, we still can't be backing the Nicholls horse in this one. The Giant Bolster is one that definitely has improved, finishing 2nd in the Gold Cup & then 3rd in the Betfair Chase but nthat still isn;t winning form & while it could run well is another we'll disregard. Grands Crus is the horse we fear most as he'd looked a true 3 mile star as a novice up until disappointing at Cheltenham, he flopped on comeback when red hot favourite for the Paddy Power but the money has started to come for David Pipe's grey in recent days & this track should be perfect for him if on his game.

We're instead siding with Cue Card as the youngest horse in the race looks to take it's classy form over a shorter distance & become a serious Gold Cup contender. Colin Tizzard's 6 year old unseated when taking on Grands Crus on its 2nd chase start but other than that has either won or when losing has only done so to the very best novices around in Bob's Worth & the spectacular Sprinter Sacre. Cue Card tore up trees when storming to victory in the Haldon Gold Cup at Exeter & we're unsure this will be a truly run race as many of the contenders are speed horses, if the race is run to suit we feel Cue Card will be the quickest come the end & can claim a brilliant success at odds of 11/2.

Fulham vs Southampton

Martin Jol's Fulham have won just once in their last 10 league games & come up against Southampton who are in relatively good form winning half their last 6 & their defence has improved massively to only concede just 5 in 7 after looking completely hopeless until the end of October, this promises to be an intriguing match up.

(Damien Duff is one of Fulham's old guard who can celebrate a win v Southampton)

Everybody knows that Fulham's away form is less than adequate but they're pretty solid at home usually & although they've lost 3 at home from 8 two of those came against top opposition in the form of Spurs & Man City. Fulham seem to have adopted a very attacking attitude with Jol now really molding the side to his style & the signing of Dimitar Berbatov looks an inspired piece of business, he's known to bully weaker teams & Southampton have conceded 20 in 7 away games even with their recent improvement. At the back Fulham look a bit of an ageing side & Schwarzer has been on the slide for a while & all 4 first choice defenders 30 or older & they're the 2nd highest conceders along with Southampton & Wigan. They were awful against Liverpool at the weekend, offering very little resistance but the Saints could be the right opponents for them to be facing here.

Southampton may be improved recently but that has mainly been at St Marys as they've won only once on the road & lost their other 6 games, their recent defensive improvement has also come at a cost to their attacking threat & star striker Rickie Lambert has scored just twice in 12. Of great concern to Southampton will be the injury to their captain & playmaker Adam Lallana who looks likely to sit this one out, he's very important to them but at least Gaston Ramirez has got fit & started to contribute, he adds a touch of class when on form. Southampton went down 1-0 at home to Sunderland on Saturday & only managed 2 shots on target in the game, Rickie Lambert will find defences more to his liking than Fulham's, they're a physical bunch, & he's struggled to get good service in recent games anyway. We're unconvinced Southampton can keep up their good defensive work & Fulham can take advantage in a game they need to win to get their season back on track, back them at a shades of odds on to win the game.

Selections:
2.35 Kempton - Countrywide Flame to win at 2/1 (General)
3.10 Kempton - Cue Card to win at 11/2
Fulham to beat Southampton at 10/11 (Betfred & Totesport)

Cheltenham Festival Day Four - Friday

The Cheltenham Festival is obviously great all week long but there is nothing quite like the Friday as we come to the Gold Cup & the big race is looking like a fascinating matchup between superstar Kauto Star & last year's winner Long Run. The supporting races are interesting too & we're going to try to finish off with a flourish & some more winners to follow up our banker of the week in Sprinter Sacre on Tuesday, then Finian's Rainbow on Wednesday & Riverside Theatre & Big Bucks on Thursday.

(Long Run gave two greats a beating in last year's Gold Cup & can emulate it again)

We have to start off with the blue riband event of jumps racing & the Gold Cup where we find two previous winners at the head of affairs with Paul Nicholls' Kauto Star & Nicky Henderson's Long Run the two to concentrate on according to many. No one can deny that Kauto Star has been a true champion & has had a renaissance year winning the Haydock Chase & regaining the King George beating Long Run into 2nd on both occasions, but we think that there are reasons for opposing Kauto. Obviously trainer Paul Nicholls has had a somewhat disappointing week even whilst winning the Champion Hurdle & World Hurdle, Rock On Ruby was trained at a sattelite yard & Big Bucks could probably win with no legs, his runners have otherwise just not looked great & that's to be expected as a virus was at the yard just at the end of February. Kauto's jumping has also been brilliant this year & probably the best it has been but he has always been prone to throwing in some dodgy ones & has fallen twice in 6 runs at Cheltenham as well as clouting the final fence on another two occasions, only two 12 year olds have won the race, the last in 1969, & it's now three years since he won his last Gold Cup in 2009. Nicky Henderson meanwhile has been in incredible form all week & that reads well for Long Run & his stablemate Burton Port, Long Run beacme the first 6 year old since the great Mill House to win the Gold Cup last year & surely has the scope to improve on what we saw last year as he's still a baby now in chasing terms. He's never been the most fluent of jumpers & although Sam Waley-Cohen is a perfectly competent jockey he of course isn't a professional & can't be counted as a positive, that's a worry but he didn't need to jump that great to win going great guns last year & the extra 2 furlongs (from the King George) & going up the Cheltenham hill will see him at his best effect. The rest of the field have some nice types in but very little value in their prices, Burton Port was getting 10 pounds from Long Run when getting beaten, just, last time but we've a suspicion that the winner was just idling that day & had plenty left to give, Midnight Chase is a 5 time Cheltenham winner but was beaten into 5th in the race last year & any value there was in his price is gone with best odds of just 12/1 now. I've dreamt that Time For Rupert wins a race here in the past week & it was quite vivid but I can't really count that as a tip, if he does though get in touch for Saturday's Lotto numbers! At 15/8 Long Run is the one to back as he looks to stamp his class on the chasing division & set up what could be enthralling encounters with horses such as Sir Des Champs & Al Ferof next year.

(Can Grumeti (near side) & Pearl Swan (far side) battle it out up the hill again?)

The first race of the day is a race we enjoy a lot in the Triumph Hurdle, a 2m 1f race restricted to the four year olds, we were at Cheltenham for one of the key trials, the Finesse Juvenile Hurdle, on the 26th January & think that race holds the key to the winner today. We backed Grumeti, a 7/4 joint favourite that day & picked up winnings on it but only after Pearl Swan was disqualified after finishing first having bumped his rival twice on the run in. Baby Mix was the other joint favourite there but trailed in last running dissapointingly but bounced back in the other key trial for this in the Adonis at Kempton, when beating another contender Sadler's Risk fair & square, Sadler's Risk just couldn't peg back Tom George's runner there but may fare better up the hill. Hisaabaat eventually came good when beating several of today's runners in the Grade One at Leopardstown but we don't fancy any from that race & are happy to stick with the 1-2 from the Cheltenham trial. Pearl Swan hasn't raced since & we've mentioned our worries about Nicholls' yard but Ruby Walsh is happy to ride ahead of any of Willie Mullins' horses so he should be backed as a cover bet, with the main selection being Alan King's Grumeti, a horse who has looked all class, subsequently won at Kempton with ease & should get a lovely tow into the race. You won't go far backing both Grumeti & Pearl Swan against the field.

(Kumbeshwar has the credentials to win the Johnny Henderson Chase)

In the last race of the Festival we reckon Kumbeshwar could end up giving Alan King a double on the day in the Johnny Henderson Chase at 5.15, he's on a reasonable mark when you look back at some of his hurdle form & should be very much suited by the large field. Kumbeshwar only just failed under a monster weight to win the Fred Winter after leading all the way last year, finished 3rd in the Adonis before that & then gave Zarkandar a race at Aintree, he takes his racing as he's gone 9 times since last Cheltenham including 5 chases against some good sorts. He won his first race, then finished second to Zaynar who ran well for a way in the Jewsons on Thursday, won again & then finished 2nd to Menorah then Kid Cassidy in 3 runner races at Kempton & Doncaster. We don't think those small fields will have suited at all & he'll relish coming back to Cheltenham, he's the youngest horse in the field & has scope for improvement. Improvement is key in any of the Cheltenham handicaps as it's not good enough to run to your handicap mark to win these races, Kumbeshwar has the qualities needed to win this & can be backed at 14/1.

Selections:
1.30 - Grumeti to win at 6/1 & Pearl Swan to win at 7/1
3.20 - Long Run to win at 15/8
5.15 - Kumbeshwar each way at 14/1