Cheltenham Festival 2013 - Day Four Friday

The final day of Cheltenham Festival  is upon us & after a great opening day for favourite backers it has got tougher for punters over the last two days although we've picked out 9/2 & 100/30 winning selections courtesy of The New One & Cue Card both winning impressively. We're onto the feature race of the meeting now & a super competitive betting heat as 10 line up for the 2013 Gold Cup.

3.20 - Cheltenham Gold Cup

(Silviniaco Conti looks classy & uncomplicated - a likely Gold Cup winner?)

This is jump racing's most coveted prize & this year's race looks a tough one to pick with the chief question being whether Bob's Worth can live up to his potential & beat more proven types. We always like an up & coming type but there's reasonable argument to be had that Bob's Worth doesn't offer an awful lot of value at the quoted odds & arguably shouldn't even be favourite when you start to scrutinise his form. Bob's Worth is of course two-time festival winner after winning the Neptune Novices Hurdle, beating Rock On Ruby in the process, & the RSA last year beating First Lieutenant. In both races Bob's Worth appeared to relish the Cheltenham Hill but Rock On Ruby was clearly outstayed & First Lieutenant continues to be slightly overrated as far as we're concerned & that one was slammed by Cue Card in the shorter distance of the Ryanair on Thursday. Henderson's charge won the valuable & prestigious Hennessy Gold Cup at Newbury & beat Tidal Bay & First Lieutenant (again) there but Newbury is a different type of challenge & Bob's Worth was getting 6 pounds off of Tidal Bay & that one can be an awkward one to win with anyway with his staying on at the death style. It's fair to say Bob's Worth is one we fear but want to oppose all the same!

Sir Des Champs was looking a very likely winner of this race for a time after an impeccable & always improving start to his racing career which saw Willie Mullins gelding win the hurdle for conditional jockeys at the festival in 2011 on just his 2nd start & then the Jewson Novices Chase with considerable ease last year. This season was tougher for Sir Des Champs as he came up against the very classy Flemenstar in the John Durkan Memorial on his first start of the year & was well beaten & then came only 4th in the Lexus when well fancied. On his last start however he bested Flemenstar in the Irish Hennessy & we like that form a lot even though it was only a select field, with proven Cheltenham form this one has to be accorded respect along with Bob's Worth & it would hardly be a surprise to see them fighting at the finish.

Long Run is a past champion & although the stats tend to be against horses regaining their title after losing it this one is young enough as he was the first 6 year old to win the race since the great Mill House in 1963 & Long Run has already won the 2nd most prestigious chase of the season in the King George at Kempton. There's always been a suspicion that Kempton may suit Long Run slightly better & with just one win from four starts at Cheltenham (3rd the other three times) it may be that something just outstays Long Run up the hill. As a former winner, & a brilliant one at that, Sam Waley-Cohen's ride deserves to be riding high in the betting but his Gold Cup win appears to have come against horses that were just going over the top in terms of their best (Denman & Kauto Star) & Long Run looks like a typical early maturing French-bred horse & he may never replicate that win again.

In our minds the horse with the most convincing form this season is Silviniaco Conti, it's slammed last year's 2nd & 3rd (The Giant Bolster & Long Run) in the Betfair Chase & then The Giant Bolster again in his prep race at Newbury a month ago. Paul Nicholls hasn't had a winner this week which is a slight worry but he hasn't had the firepower of previous years & a few of his horses have had decent runs at big prices suggesting that his string are in decent order. It's difficult to cramp Silviniaco Conti's form & this one just looks a straightforward type & exactly the kind of horse that Ruby Walsh will love to ride with him able to deliver it with a late charge after hold up tactics, at odds of 9/2 we like Silviniaco Conti to gain Paul Nicholls a 5th Gold Cup & his first since 2010.

(Captain Chris is a former Arkle winner so has the requisite class to compete)

The horse we fancy to provide a real challenge to the selection at decent odds is Captain Chris - a horse that looks a true 3 miler that will appreciate Cheltenham's stiff finish. Captain Chris won the Arkle in 2011, beating future Champion Chaser Finians Rainbow, before losing his way last season but this year has been far better. He won the Amlin Chase convincingly on seasonal debut & has since finished a very close 2nd to Long Run in the King George & was then arguably unlucky to lose out to Cue Card at Ascot when clouting the 2nd last & that form has been strongly franked with Cue Card's impressive victory in the Ryanair. At forecast odds of 14/1 Captain Chris is definitely an each way player but we'll be risky & take a chance on the forecast (reversed) with Silviniaco Conti - this one looks a battler & the race could play to his strengths.

Selections:
3.20 - Silviniaco Conti to win at 9/2 (General)
3.20 - Silviniaco Conti & Captain Chris reverse forecast (or Tote Exacta if that's your preference!)

Cheltenham Festival 2013 - Day Three Thursday

Thursday of the Festival & attendees will get the bonus of the Cross Country race getting run here after not going ahead on Tuesday, there is a whole day of competitive & top class racing. It remains to be seen whether Willie Mullins can continue to get the winners - we're hoping for one of his at a big price! The New One won easily for us yesterday at advised odds of 9/2 & with just four selections so far we're in profit - picking one in every race just isn't our style & we'd much rather be selective & turn a profit than pick several winners & still end up losing money!

2.40 - Ryanair Chase

The Ryanair has grown in stature as a race over the years & it has claims to be considered up there with some of the true championship races at the festival now, certainly the World Hurdle at least, & this year sees a high class field again including two-time winner Albertas Run & last year's victor Riverside Theatre. It's competitive too with 7 of the 8 runners trading at odds of 14/1 or shorter & everyone of them having an official rating of 155+, we think there's value in the race & will be going for a horse that is progressive yet already proven as well.

(Winners of the last 3 Ryanair Chases - Riverside Theatre & Albertas Run line up again)

Albertas Run deserves maximum respect as it's a horse with a great record in the race after finishing 2nd last year to follow its two wins in 2010 & 2011 plus a win as a novice chaser in the RSA, but Jonjo O'Neill's bay gelding now hasn't run for nearly a year after failing at Aintree. The horse clearly goes well fresh but time has surely got to catch up with him at some point & at 12 years old it could be this time around & we'll reluctantly pass by. Last year's winner Riverside Theatre has only raced once since Aintree last year, when failing to see out the distance in the King George, & is another that can go well fresh & looks certain to stay up the hill strongly as he did last year to win under a rousing Barry Geraghty ride, we're just a bit concerned that this year's race looks a touch stronger & after only just prevailing last time it's a harder task this time around.

The favourite for the race at the time of writing is First Lieutenant & Mouse Morris's horse has some top class form but does struggle to win & hasn't passed the post in front since November 2011, that isn't necessarily a worry as the horse has some great festival form with a Neptune Novices Hurdle win in 2011 & a 2nd (to this year's Gold Cup favourite Bob's Worth) in last year's RSA. First Lieutenant has however looked a stayer to us & was only just touched off in the Lexus in Ireland over 4 furlongs further, it seems he's running in this race in an effort to avoid Bob's Worth & we'd rather go with a horse that looks a specialist at the distance, especially when the price is so short.

(Cue Card looks all class to us & can win the 2m4f championship)

Cue Card looks the one to concentrate on here as Colin Tizzard's gelding came 2nd in last year's top novice race the Arkle behind the virtually unbeatable Sprinter Sacre & has since only gone down when trying to step up to 3 miles in the King George after travelling nicely for a way before blowing up. Before that Cue Card had smashed the field (including rival here Menorah) in the Haldon Gold Cup at Exeter & then last time he took advantage of a terrible blunder from Captain Chris to win the Ascot Chase, he may have won already that day & the race looks a nice trial for this one. Cue Card looks a nice jumper & should be able to cope with whatever tactics are employed in the race & looks the winner at odds of 100/30.

Champion Court & Menorah are the other horses priced in single figures but Menorah looks well held on that Exeter run with Cue Card & Champion Court may be being overrated for the King George run when showing his best form for some time & next time out couldn't beat the mare Alasi so we're happily swerving both of these.

3.20 - World Hurdle

(Reve de Sivola & Oscar Whisky head the World Hurdle betting but we'll pass over)

The World Hurdle this year is obviously missing its star turn in the incomparable Big Bucks but it actually now make the race a very exciting betting event, but not necessarily an easy one to pick the winner from! Oscar Whisky looks like it may head the market but was well beaten last year when not appearing to stay & was outbattled in a war of a race in the key trial for this by Reve de Sivola, that race could have left its mark on both of the horses & in an open affair we'll leave both alone.

Peddlers Cross is probably the most interesting horse in the race as a former Champion Hurdle runner up & he looked a top chasing prospect & has actually started an odds on favourite against Sprinter Sacre before! He won the Neptune Novices Hurdle in 2010 & that would be the best indicator in terms of novice races for this, he's never raced quite this far & wasn't exactly electrifying when winning at 1/5 a month ago at Musselburgh. We're just a little concerned that this race may come a little too soon for Peddlers Cross after a problem before his season started seems to have really set back Donald McCain's star.

(So Young could spring a surprise at 25/1)

At a very big price we like the look of So Young as a live contender, he's a Willie Mullins horse & that stable has been dominating the festival so far so we wouldn't be surprised to see this one backed in from current odds of 25/1. He was a 2/1 favourite for the Neptune two years back & then an odds on favourite for the Punchestown Champion Novice Hurdle which shows how good a novice the horse was but he was well beaten in this race last year & then raced disappointingly next time at Fairyhouse. Since then however So Young appears to have raced nicely with a 3rd in the Christmas Hurdle at Leopardstown & then a 2nd behind the very decent Solwhit, it was his last race that took the eye though with a comprehensive defeat of stablemate Zaidpour (another that's looked full of promise at a time) & we think So Young may be on an upward curve - in an open race we like the look of it as an each way bet at 25/1.

Selections:
2.40 - Cue Card to win at 100/30 (Various)
3.20 - So Young each way at 25/1 (General)

Cheltenham Festival 2013 - Day Two Wednesday

The second day of the Festival & we'll see the shortest priced runner of the week as Sprinter Sacre lines up in the feature race of the day, that should be a spectacle but maybe not a betting proposition, instead check out our thoughts below for a guide to the day's racing. Tuesday saw us draw a blank as we opposed Hurricane Fly (the horse ran a mightily impressive race) & My Tent Or Yours just wouldn't go past Champagne Fever after travelling like a sure fire winner, it was only two selections though & we'll hope for better here.

3.20 - Champion Chase

Lets get this out of the way first - Sprinter Sacre is a monstrous horse in this two mile division & we're not keen to take on Henderson's wonder horse here, but there is possibly some value to be had in the 'without the favourite' market & that's what we'll concentrate on.

(Sprinter Sacre looks nigh on unbeatable in the Champion Chase)

Sizing Europe heads the without Sprinter Sacre market at a top price of evens & it's fair enough that he should as a two-time festival winner, first off in the Arkle & then following up (as many Arkle winners do) in this race two years ago. Some reckoned Sizing Europe to be unfortunate when losing narrowly to Finians Rainbow last year when short of room as they omitted the final fence & Sizing's form since has been impeccable since with two Grade One wins & three Grade Twos from 5 starts & a couple of those victories came over 4 furlongs further suggesting a relative stamina test (with soft conditions) will not be a problem. The key to winning the race without Sprinter Sacre however may lie in not taking that horse on at all & instead concentrating on getting that 2nd spot - it will be hard for Andrew Lynch not to at least try to take on Sprinter Sacre as he sits on a past Champion Chaser & that could mean this one gets tired before the end & the value could lie elsewhere.

Paul Nicholls' Sanctuaire has looked impressive at times this season but it was hard not to be disappointed with his last run at this track when finishing just 4th behind Sprinter Sacre in the Clarence House Chase & with very similar conditions in this race we have to look for another to finish 2nd. Mail de Bievre has only run once in the UK since 2009 after moving to Tom George's stable from France after previously being a bumper horse with Alan King but that run was one that was full of promise after going exceptionally well for a long way before tiring against Gold Cup prospects Silviniaco Conti & The Giant Bolster in the Denman Chase at Newbury. It certainly seemed like a step back in distance was what was needed for this one but dropping back a full mile isn't easy & they'll go a fair clip in this one, conditions however will help & the ground will be typical of the type it's run on in France, with a bit of market support we're going to side with Mail de Bievre to chase the favourite home at odds of 6/1.

(Mail de Bievre can plough through the soft ground to chase the winner home)

Wishfull Thinking ran a poor race at Kempton in the Desert Orchid Chase just after Christmas but either side of that has won well in soft conditions at this distance here at Cheltenham when slamming inferior rivals & then when beating some useful types including French Opera (giving that one 6 pounds) with a rousing finish, going away, at Newbury. The race here should be run to suit & Richard Johnson can ride his usual waiting race & pick off rivals as they tire towards the end of the race, Wishfull Thinking is a two-time Cheltenham winner already but is maybe not a big enough price to consider as value when you exclude the favourite. The horse crashed out dramatically at the 4th fence last year, wiping out a photographer (we were posted on the rails directly opposite & got a great view!), & isn't always the most fluent jumper so is just a little too risky a proposition.

2.05 - Neptune Investment Management Novices Hurdle

Another red hot favourite runs in the novices hurdle over 2m4f with Pont Alexandre heading the market at top odds of 7/4 & it's difficult to do down the chances of Willie Mullins' horse that won a Grade One over the distance on debut & then followed up with a facile success again over the distance in a Grade Two. Both of those wins came in heavy ground & Pont Alexandre made all so there appear to be no fears with regards tactics but we are reluctant to get too sucked in when the horse doesn't appear to have beaten any rivals of particular note.

(The Twiston-Davies's will be hoping The New One can win the Neptune)

We were at Cheltenham when The New One was narrowly headed by At Fishers Cross in a trial race for this in January & the form of the race looks rock solid with the pair pulling clear of two-time Grade Two winner Coneygree & the winner of the race now heads the market for the Albert Bartlett on Friday. The New One was maybe unlucky to lose that last race as he was only headed late on & had little time to try to battle back, he'd already won another two trial races for this, one in a class two here & another when smashing the field in a Grade Two at Warwick. Sam Twiston-Davies will need to be more patient with his charge in this one than he was when beaten by At Fishers Cross but with Pont Alexandre looking likely to be a target to aim at The New One can be delivered late & outbattle his less experienced rival, odds of 9/2 for a horse proven in conditions look decent.

Taquin Du Seuil is certainly a worthy opponent too as he's only been beaten once in his British racing career & that was by the potentially very high class My Tent Or Yours. Rule The World & Chatterbox are other big contenders but Puffin Billy was well beaten by Melodic Rendezvous last time & looks like he may be one to avoid for the time being.

Selections:
3.20 - Mail de Bievre to win without Sprinter Sacre at 6/1 (Paddy Power & Boylesports)
2.05 - The New One to win at 9/2 (Paddy Power)

Cheltenham Festival 2013 - Followers' Best Bets

Cheltenham Festival is great - I think that most punters can agree on that but although it can be a week where you can win a fortune there's also the potential to lose one too! We've asked followers to send their best bets of the week so you can keep track of how they're doing & who knows maybe we'll end up with a consensus on what the best bets are...

Here we go then, below you'll see the follower's Twitter name & their selection along with the race & day that race is on. Good luck to all of you (unless you're opposing our selections!). If you send your best pick of the week through to us on Twitter @LikeBuyingMoney we'll add to the bottom of this list below.

Followers' best Cheltenham 2013 bets:

(The Jeremy Scott trained Melodic Rendezvous is popular amongst our followers)

@Clive_Mallon - Reve De Sivola in the World Hurdle on Thursday at 5/1 (Ladbrokes).

@CMcKenna81 - Road To Riches in the Albert Bartlett Hurdle on Friday at 16/1 (SkyBet, Totesport & Betfred), he also likes the chances of Melodic Rendezvous (Supreme Novices) & Boston Bob (The RSA looks likely).

@andrewdeighan - Un Atout in the Supreme Novices Hurdle on Tuesday at 8/1 (General) (This is the Festival's opening race so good luck Andrew - hope it's a great start!).

@CTGBreathnach - is opposing Andrew above & going for Melodic Rendezvous in the Supreme Novices on Tuesday at 10/1. (Melodic Rendezvous is trained out at my hometown so I'll be trying to hear whether there are any local whispers - update: there apparently has been a potential virus scare so could be one to avoid)

(Talked up as a Gold Cup prospect last year, Hunt Ball goes for the Byrne Group Plate)

@AndyMehers - Likes David Pipe's potential handicap blot Ballynagour in the Byrne Group Plate on Thursday & the odds at time of checking were 5/1 (Ladbrokes & William Hill).

@bartiestagg - is going for Our Mick at 7/1 (Bet365 & William Hill) in the JLT Specialty Handicap Chase on Tuesday.

@stuie28 - liked China Rock with a run in the Ryanair (it doesn't go) but also Captain Chris in the Gold Cup on Friday at tasty odds of 16/1 (General). He also reckons Hurricane Fly & Dyanste are the lays of the meeting. (We agree with one of these so check back to find out!)

@OgilvieJamie - goes for Hunt Ball in the Byrne Group Plate on Thursday at 7/1 reckoning his owner will have placed him well to recoup some betting losses. (I've got Hunt Ball as a horse to avoid until his handicap mark drops a bit more)

@Broony_Steve - has three fancies in Bob's Worth (Gold Cup), At Fishers Cross (probably the Albert Bartlett Novices Hurdle) & Oscar Whisky (World Hurdle).

Stout Villa defence can Cage Canaries

They say things come in threes so we'll try to get 3 out of 3 again this Saturday as we again look at the best football bets there are to be had throughout the English league system. We know that your average punter likes to have a bet on the big Premier League games but the highly competitive nature of those games & high profile in general means they are often a betting minefield where betting firms don't offer too much in the way of value at all, that's why we like to look at the lower leagues where many wouldn't even think of having a bet often & there is certainly value to be had!

Aston Villa vs Norwich City

You wouldn't be marking this game down as a glamour fixture for the Premier League but it does have an interesting story as Villa manager Paul Lambert faces off against his former employers who he left rather acrimonious circumstances in the summer. Neither side are going too well with just one win each although Norwich's came last weekend with a shock win at Carrow Road over Arsenal & that has helped put them onto 6 points compared to Villa's 5, this is a game both sides will feel they can win.

(Ron Vlaar looks & plays the part of dominant central defender for Villa)

The two teams are the joint lowest scorers in the league, along with Sunderland who've played one less, with 6 goals apiece & that lack of cutting edge is meaning relegation is a perilously realistic outcome this year. Villa signed Christian Benteke to help out in the goals department but he's managed just one (in their only win v Swansea) & Darren Bent has looked lost at times with the paucity of quality service that he needs to thrive. Norwich's problem going forward is their utter predictability & total reliance on Grant Holt to score their goals but the positive is that regardless of the fact teams know what his game is, it is still difficult to contain him & he's scored in their last three games.

On the positive side for both sides are they have decent keepers (Guzan & Ruddy) & Villa have a pretty sturdy defence with Ron Vlaar having come into the centre of defence & impressed as he's taken up the captaincy whilst Stilian Petrov has been out with serious illness. Matt Lowton has made the step from League One to the top flight look relatively easy & the Villa back four have managed to keep them in games longer than maybe they've deserved. All in all this looks like being a tight little affair & the bookies look to have got it wrong by making over, rather than under, 2.5 goals the shorter odds, back the unders in this game between sides who've combined to score just 12 goals in 16 league games.

Cheltenham Town vs Exeter City

Down in League Two, a local derby takes place as Cheltenham Town entertain Exeter City at Whaddon Road. Cheltenham are 4th currently whilst Exeter have faltered in recent weeks & have dropped down to mid-table.

(Kaid Mohamed fires one in for Cheltenham)

Cheltenham are in fine form & have won five or their last eight league games & only suffered one defeat - away at 5th place Bradford City. Their latest victory was Tuesday night as they came from behind to beat Plymouth Argyle 2-1 thanks to a winner from Welsh substitute Kaid Mohamed, that was his second in three games & he is closing on leading scorer Shaun Harrad who has five league goals so far. Cheltenham have produced their best football in front of their home faithful with 4 wins & a draw in 7 games & have won 3 of their last 4 scoring two in each match.

Exeter City started made a flying start to life in League Two with 5 victories in their first 7 league games but since then their form has been turned on its head with five defeats & only one win at bottom side Barnet in their last seven. A sole strike from evergreen forward Jamie Cureton at Dagenham & Redbridge the other night at least ended a run of three games without a goal.

Cheltenham will be expected to take advantage of a confidence hit Exeter side & continue their chase of league leaders Gillingham at the best price of 11/10 with Coral.

Brentford vs Hartlepool United

League One sees Brentford host managerless Hartlepool United at Griffin Park. Brentford are in 9th place after a solid start to the season whilst Hartlepool are rooted to the foot of the table.

(Brentford's star youngster Harry Forrester will fancy his chance of scoring against Hartlepool)

Brentford have been a Jekyll & Hyde side so far this season in terms of their home & away form - on the road they are winless with only five points from a possible 21 but at home they have been great with five wins out of seven matches. Clayton Donaldson & midfielder Harry Forrester have been in fine goalscorer form for the Bees with 10 goals between them & they will be relishing the prospect of facing a leaky Hartlepool defence.

Hartlepool's manager Neale Cooper resigned after a 2-1 defeat against Bury on Tuesday as they raked up their ninth league defeat of the season, there aren't really any positives for Hartlepool currently & already they face a hard slog to competitive this season. Their away form is awful with only one point from seven matches & they have been inflicted to a number of heavy defeats leading to a record of on average 2.29 goals shipped per game.

Brentford's terrific home form should continue at the expense of sorry Hartlepool team & they should be first on all punters accumulator lists this weekend at reasonable odds of 4/6 with Coral.

Selections:
Under 2.5 goals in Aston Villa vs Norwich City game at 11/10 (Various)
Cheltenham Town to beat Exeter City at 11/10 (Coral)
Brentford to beat Hartlepool United at 4/6 (Coral)

Cheltenham Festival Day Four - Friday

The Cheltenham Festival is obviously great all week long but there is nothing quite like the Friday as we come to the Gold Cup & the big race is looking like a fascinating matchup between superstar Kauto Star & last year's winner Long Run. The supporting races are interesting too & we're going to try to finish off with a flourish & some more winners to follow up our banker of the week in Sprinter Sacre on Tuesday, then Finian's Rainbow on Wednesday & Riverside Theatre & Big Bucks on Thursday.

(Long Run gave two greats a beating in last year's Gold Cup & can emulate it again)

We have to start off with the blue riband event of jumps racing & the Gold Cup where we find two previous winners at the head of affairs with Paul Nicholls' Kauto Star & Nicky Henderson's Long Run the two to concentrate on according to many. No one can deny that Kauto Star has been a true champion & has had a renaissance year winning the Haydock Chase & regaining the King George beating Long Run into 2nd on both occasions, but we think that there are reasons for opposing Kauto. Obviously trainer Paul Nicholls has had a somewhat disappointing week even whilst winning the Champion Hurdle & World Hurdle, Rock On Ruby was trained at a sattelite yard & Big Bucks could probably win with no legs, his runners have otherwise just not looked great & that's to be expected as a virus was at the yard just at the end of February. Kauto's jumping has also been brilliant this year & probably the best it has been but he has always been prone to throwing in some dodgy ones & has fallen twice in 6 runs at Cheltenham as well as clouting the final fence on another two occasions, only two 12 year olds have won the race, the last in 1969, & it's now three years since he won his last Gold Cup in 2009. Nicky Henderson meanwhile has been in incredible form all week & that reads well for Long Run & his stablemate Burton Port, Long Run beacme the first 6 year old since the great Mill House to win the Gold Cup last year & surely has the scope to improve on what we saw last year as he's still a baby now in chasing terms. He's never been the most fluent of jumpers & although Sam Waley-Cohen is a perfectly competent jockey he of course isn't a professional & can't be counted as a positive, that's a worry but he didn't need to jump that great to win going great guns last year & the extra 2 furlongs (from the King George) & going up the Cheltenham hill will see him at his best effect. The rest of the field have some nice types in but very little value in their prices, Burton Port was getting 10 pounds from Long Run when getting beaten, just, last time but we've a suspicion that the winner was just idling that day & had plenty left to give, Midnight Chase is a 5 time Cheltenham winner but was beaten into 5th in the race last year & any value there was in his price is gone with best odds of just 12/1 now. I've dreamt that Time For Rupert wins a race here in the past week & it was quite vivid but I can't really count that as a tip, if he does though get in touch for Saturday's Lotto numbers! At 15/8 Long Run is the one to back as he looks to stamp his class on the chasing division & set up what could be enthralling encounters with horses such as Sir Des Champs & Al Ferof next year.

(Can Grumeti (near side) & Pearl Swan (far side) battle it out up the hill again?)

The first race of the day is a race we enjoy a lot in the Triumph Hurdle, a 2m 1f race restricted to the four year olds, we were at Cheltenham for one of the key trials, the Finesse Juvenile Hurdle, on the 26th January & think that race holds the key to the winner today. We backed Grumeti, a 7/4 joint favourite that day & picked up winnings on it but only after Pearl Swan was disqualified after finishing first having bumped his rival twice on the run in. Baby Mix was the other joint favourite there but trailed in last running dissapointingly but bounced back in the other key trial for this in the Adonis at Kempton, when beating another contender Sadler's Risk fair & square, Sadler's Risk just couldn't peg back Tom George's runner there but may fare better up the hill. Hisaabaat eventually came good when beating several of today's runners in the Grade One at Leopardstown but we don't fancy any from that race & are happy to stick with the 1-2 from the Cheltenham trial. Pearl Swan hasn't raced since & we've mentioned our worries about Nicholls' yard but Ruby Walsh is happy to ride ahead of any of Willie Mullins' horses so he should be backed as a cover bet, with the main selection being Alan King's Grumeti, a horse who has looked all class, subsequently won at Kempton with ease & should get a lovely tow into the race. You won't go far backing both Grumeti & Pearl Swan against the field.

(Kumbeshwar has the credentials to win the Johnny Henderson Chase)

In the last race of the Festival we reckon Kumbeshwar could end up giving Alan King a double on the day in the Johnny Henderson Chase at 5.15, he's on a reasonable mark when you look back at some of his hurdle form & should be very much suited by the large field. Kumbeshwar only just failed under a monster weight to win the Fred Winter after leading all the way last year, finished 3rd in the Adonis before that & then gave Zarkandar a race at Aintree, he takes his racing as he's gone 9 times since last Cheltenham including 5 chases against some good sorts. He won his first race, then finished second to Zaynar who ran well for a way in the Jewsons on Thursday, won again & then finished 2nd to Menorah then Kid Cassidy in 3 runner races at Kempton & Doncaster. We don't think those small fields will have suited at all & he'll relish coming back to Cheltenham, he's the youngest horse in the field & has scope for improvement. Improvement is key in any of the Cheltenham handicaps as it's not good enough to run to your handicap mark to win these races, Kumbeshwar has the qualities needed to win this & can be backed at 14/1.

Selections:
1.30 - Grumeti to win at 6/1 & Pearl Swan to win at 7/1
3.20 - Long Run to win at 15/8
5.15 - Kumbeshwar each way at 14/1

Cheltenham Festival Day Three - Thursday

We're over halfway through the Cheltenham Festival & Thursday's racing sees Big Bucks attempt to go for an unprecedented 4th World Hurdle, a highly competitive renewal of the Ryanair Chase, some competitive handicaps & the Jewson Novices Chase. Wednesday was reasonable for us with Finians Rainbow winning but we were unlucky with Cotton Mill ducked out at the 2nd last & unseated Denis O'Reagan when in the lead pulling clear of the field with & travelling as well as eventual winner Simonsig.

(Zaynar may be sweetened up by his change of stables & is a live 25/1 chance)

Starting off in the Jewson we find Peddlers Cross at the head of the market & much has been said & written about last year's Champion Hurdle 2nd after connections opted to avoid Sprinter Sacre in the Arkle & come to this race instead but surely whatever the result here the correct decision was made as it seems unlikely Pegasus itself would have beaten that one on Tuesday! Peddlers Cross was slammed by Sprinter Sacre in his last race back in December & although there was no disgrace in that, when you do look at his overall form in chases there really isn't a lot to see as Donald McCain's charge has only had two other races, both at their local track Bangor, in low grade 3 & 5 runner races where Peddlers went off at prices of 1/8 & 2/13 so it's pretty difficult to gauge how good a chaser he is at all & we don't want to go near prices of 3/1 or lower here. 2nd favourite Sir Des Champs is a different proposition to Peddlers as he's won all of his 3 chases in Ireland including two Grade Twos & seems to be a confirmed 2m 4f specialist & won at the festival last year in the conditional jockeys hurdle so should come up the hill just fine. Paul Nicholls' Cristal Bonus is another that is a confirmed stayer but has only had two chases, winning both including the Grade Two Pendil but that was with one of today's rivals Zaynar unseating his rider & the other joint favourite that day Minella Class being pulled up. At odds of 25/1 Zaynar is actually the horse that interests us as he's another with a festival win under his belt with victory in the Triumph Hurdle in 2009 & also a 3rd in the Champion Hurdle in 2010, he didn't stay 3 miles in the World Hurdle last year & moved to Nick Williams stable & has had 7 races since October making him one of the most experienced chasers in the field. Zaynar is a confirmed class act & has finished 4th in the Game Spirit & BetVictor against non-novice rivals but what makes him especially interesting is the recent switch to David Pipe & that suggests that both owner & trainer think he's capable of performing here, Pipe has had big price winners at the Festival before (we were on Buena Vista last year) & this could be a great gamble, take what odds you can get, 25/1 is available as we write this!

(Riverside Theatre is a classy sort & can fly home in the Ryanair)

As we noted at the top the Ryanair Chase is highly competitive this year with 7 horses between 5/1 to 12/1, it's the de facto championship for horses too slow for the Champion Chase but that don't quite get the Gold Cup distance & is probably, slightly unfairly, a little looked down upon by purists. Somersby is near the head of affairs after winning over 2 miles in the Victor Chandler at Ascot & even though we like the runner up in that race, Finian's Rainbow, we don't like Somersby for this one as he's been beaten by Master Minded, Gauvain & finished a distant 4th in the King George as well this season, in fact his win back in October was his first in nearly two years. Noble Prince won the Jewson last year at the Festival over the distance & has since competed at a high level over two miles finishing just up behind Big Zeb twice & Blazing Tempo last time out, that's Ruby Walsh's mount here but this distance will suit Noble Prince better, even though competing over shorter we are put off by his only win since the Jewson being an uncompetitive 3 runner affair & can't be making him joint favourite. Our money will be down on Riverside Theatre, the Nicky Henderson trained horse that has only been beaten at the very highest levels over fences when coming 5th in Sizing Europe's Arkle, falling in his next race at Punchestown (their Champion Novice Chase) & finishing 2nd to Long Run, ahead of Kauto Star, in the 2010 (raced in 2011) King George. He then won the Betfair Ascot Chase with ease in 2011 & would have come here as a hot favourite but was kept off the track for a year with injury before again taking the same race this year giving Medermit & Gauvain a beating in some style, if the dreaded bounce factor doesn't happen then 5/1 is a great price & should be taken with confidence. Albertas Run could be a danger as he loves this race having won the last two renewals but he's 11 now & when you look back at those races the kind of strength you see this year probably wasn't quite there, still we wouldn't put anyone off backing what would be a hugely popular winner.

(Heavyweight Champion of the Worrrrrrrrrld!!!!! BIG BUCKS)

Big Bucks can hardly count as a tip but we think he's pretty bombproof in the World Hurdle & reckon those looking to take him on with Oscar Whisky may be trying a little too hard. Big Bucks is truly exceptional, never makes mistakes at hurdles & disposes of all rivals with consumate ease, yes he hits a flat spot in his races but that's his way & when it comes to the final 2 or 3 furlongs he regularly accelerates whilst others are slowing & over the last couple of years seems to be even better, slamming his rivals whereas before he'd only win by as far as he needed to. Oscar Whisky has never raced this distance, running over at least 4 furlongs shorter this season & also against poor opposition & that doesn't seem like the preparation needed to beat a true champion. Much has been made of his 3rd in the Champion Hurdle last year but that suddenly isn't looking so great with Hurricane Fly's ready defeat this year & Peddlers Cross going chasing & others in behind, bar Overturn, haven't done a lot for the form. Big Bucks is available at a quite huge 4/6 on Betfair as this is written & that needs to be bet & bet big, since reverting to hurdling he's won 15 in a row, looks better than ever & seems to have no rivals worth mentioning, we'd love to see him win this then be aimed at the Ascot Gold Cup in June!

Selections:
1.30 Zaynar each way at 25/1
2.40 Riverside Theatre at 5/1
3.20 Big Bucks at 4/6 (Betfair)

Cheltenham Festival Day Two - Wednesday

We're back followers after Sprinter Scare obliged with one of the easiest wins you'll see at the Festival to get you & us off to a great start before Zarkandar just wasn't fit enough on the day but the horse we said to back in a forecast with him, Rock On Ruby, ended up winning the Champion Hurdle. We're looking for more winners this Wednesday & one of us will be up at the track (hoping that Sizing Europe gets beat thanks to some lay bets on Betfair), you can follow us on Twitter @LikeBuyingMoney by clicking the follow button above.

(Finian's Rainbow is all class & will look to become the Champion Chaser)

The big race on the 2nd day of the Festival is the Queen Mother Champion Chase & this year we get to see the last two winners of the race line up with strong favourite Sizing Europe looking to bat away old rival Big Zeb & the rest of the opposition in a field of 8. The last two winners probably don't have an awful lot between them although Sizing Europe gave Big Zeb a beating last time they met in a three runner race at Punchestown but that was on some very testing ground & Colm Murphy was adamant that wouldn't have suited his charge at all & you only have to go back to May 2011 where Big Zeb turned the tables around from Cheltenham when they were on pretty quick ground. Since the start of 2010 Sizing Europe has won 5 of 11 races & has lost 2 of 5 of his races since jis win in this last year & taking all of that together it just meaans that he doesn't look the 'good thing' that some people make him & is certainly opposable at odds on. Both the previous two champs are also getting on a bit with Big Zeb now 11 & Sizing Europe 10, in the past 12 runnings only the truly great Moscow Flyer has won the race whilst in double digits of age & neither of these would claim to be at the Flyer's level s we think taking them both on with a younger model would be prudent. Kauto Star's half brother Kauto Stone is the baby of the bunch here & had a promising run when 2nd to the favourite here in the Tingle Creek just before Christmas but dissappointed badly behind Riverside Theatre at Ascot & may end up finding 2m 4f is his distance in the future. We're fans of Finian's Rainbow & he's been beaten just twice since going chasing coming 2nd in the Arkle last year & then getting outstayed by Somersby at Ascot both in Grade Ones against top opposition, Arkle winners have an awesome record in this race but Captain Chris doesn't go so Finian's Rainbow is as close as we'll get this year. He has an awful lot of class about him but Barry Geraghty may need to be at his best as we're unsure a battle up the hill will totally suit but if he can deliver Finian's Rainbow late, odds of 9/2 could be made to look silly. At fancy odds of 25/1 we also have to advise an each way bet on Realt Dubh, Paul Nolan's horse finished 3rd in last year's Arkle & was right at the top of the novice chaser tree, he's not run since & that counts against him but is the one capable of springing a surprise if any are.

(Cotton Mill - unbeaten & 16/1, Yes please!)

In the 2nd race of the day the Neptune Investment Novices Hurdle we think that new trainer John Ferguson can round off his incredible 1st year with a great run from Cotton Mill. Ferguson was Sheik Mohammed's bloodstock agent & he's used his connections to form an incredibly strong string of horses & at the time of writing this has had 22 winners from 61 runners this season for a strike rate of over 36% & over half finishing in the first three. Cotton Mill is unbeaten over hurdles & was always likely to be decent as he achieved a rating of 95 on the flat back in in 2010 & has been campaigned for this race with his wins coming over 2m 4f twice & then the race distance of 2m 5f at Warwick in a Grade Two. The favourite for the race is Nicky Henderson's Simonsig but the odds available look a little too short & we'd be keener on the chances of Paul Nolan's Monksland, another with 3 runs over hurdles & a Grade Two under its belt. At the odds available though Cotton Mill has to be the selection with an each way bet at 16/1.

(Grands Crus is probably good enough to compete in a Gold Cup so should win this)

For our final selection of the day we don't plan on being remotely original as we go with Grands Crus to win the RSA Chase at odds of 6/4 & we think he'll do it easily to show why a run in the Gold Cup was so strongly considered. The 2nd favourite is Bob's Worth but Grands Crus had that rival back in 3rd on Boxing Day when he won the Feltham oozing class all the way, jumping excellently to show what a good decision it was to go chasing this year. Chasing was apparently always the plan but it was never an option to stay hurdling whilst Big Bucks cleaned up the division although that great champion was the only better stayer than our selection here. Join Together doesn't deserve to be as short a price as 6/1 on form & seems to only be that price thanks to connections with Paul Nicholls training & Ruby Walsh riding & we think the biggest danger comes from First Lieutenant as he has Cheltenham form thanks to winning last year's Neptune Investement Novices Hurdle. First Lieutenant has been slightly disappointing this season though & although we know he has class it probably isn't enough to beat Grands Crus at this or any stage, David Pipe's horse can show himself to be a fully deserving favourite to come up the hill in front, casting his rivals aside as they try to make their challenges.

Selections:
2.05 Cotton Mill each way at 16/1
2.40 Grands Crus to win at 6/4
3.20 Finians Rainbow to win at 9/2
3.20 Realt Dubh each way at 25/1

Cheltenham Festival - Day One Tuesday

The Cheltenham Festival is the pinnacle of the jump racing season & many punters betting highlight of the year with fortunes won & lost over the course of four days of top class, competitive action between the best hurdlers & chasers from Britain & Ireland, we'll be covering the action for every day looking for value to give you an edge over the bookies. The Tuesday tends to be a real favourite day here at Like Buying Money Towers with arguably the two best novices races in the Supreme Novices Hurdle & the Arkle & then the Champion Hurdle later, it can become a bigger favourite if we can start off with some nice winners! If you aren't already you can follow us on Twitter @LikeBuyingMoney by clicking the follow button above & keep up to date from the news throughout the festival.

(Hurricane Fly is a deserving favourite in the Champion Hurdle but are odds of 4/6 a bit too short?)

The big race of the day is the Champion Hurdle & Hurricane Fly is a warm order to follow up his impressive win in 2011 & make it 12 wins from 13 runs over hurdles, as impressive as 'The Fly' has been there are still reasons to oppose at the prices available & we think we've got one to beat him. Hurricane Fly is a smooth traveller in his races & that complements jockey Ruby Walsh's style but when you look back through his form, other than in the Champion Hurdle last year, it is clear that wins against top quality opposition are thin on the ground. None of the horses that Hurricane Fly beat as a novice have gone on to become top notch hurdlers, after coming 3rd to the useful, but no more than that, Solwhit on his first foray out of novice company he then beat that rival 4 times in a row with one of today's rivals, the limited Thousand Stars also in behind 3 of those times. It's arguable that last year's Champion Hurdle was great as several of those in behind have gone chasing or stepped up in distance this season including the runner up Peddler's Cross. Ok we know that a horse can only beat what's in front of it but the crop over the last couple of seasons really doesn't seem to have the strength of a few years back when the likes of Hardy Eustace, Brave Inca & Macs Joy amongst others were battling out all the best races. It looks to us like the younger generation can come & provide a real challenge here to the last two winners of the race as we also have the similarly smooth travelling 2010 Champion Binocular in attendance, when Binocular's on his game he can look spectacular but there's always a suspicion that he's looking better than he really is & we were surprised, & impressed, by the battling win against Rock On Ruby at Kempton in the Christmas  Hurdle as we expected Binocular to fold under pressure.

(Zarkandar can show class & toughness to become the Champion Hurdler)

With two similar types at the top of the market our interest lies with last year's Triumph winner Zarkandar, Paul Nicholls gelding is a brother to the outstanding Arc winner Zakava & is unbeaten over hurdles in four tries, winning the Grade 2 Adonis on debut, then Grade Ones before making a comeback after 10 months out to show his outstanding grit & stamina to win a hugely competitive handicap in the Grade 3 Betfair Hurdle at Newbury. The Triumph form has stood up excellently with just about everything in the race winning since & some good races at that & Zarkandar looks the best of them with the requisite class to compete at the highest level but also the stamina that could prove crucial up the Cheltenham hill. This race will almost certainly be run to suit as Paul Nicholls has 3 other runners in the race & they will surely set this up for Zarkandar's finishing thrust, similarly to Big Bucks, Zarkandar has seemed to hit flat spots, both here last year & at Newbury last time but once the finishing line is in sight we expect him to eat up the ground like before & get up to leave his rivals trailing & become one of the great 5 year old winners like See You Then or Night Nurse, at odds of 7/1 Zarkandar can be the winner. We also think that th ultra consistent Rock On Ruby is now at the right distance after being just touched off as a novice over 2m 4f by Bob's Worth & then First Lieutenant at Cheltenham last season, he won the Gerry Feilden Hurdle impressively before being beaten by just a neck by Binocular on Boxing Day & should still be improving. With the improvement we'd expect from Rock On Ruby there's every chance a place may be available & with us being keen on Zarkandar a small bet on the straight forecast Zarkandar to beat Rock On Ruby could offer a large payout.

(Sprinter Sacre - just too damn good)

A favourite we do like the look of is the excellent Sprinter Sacre in the Arkle, a horse that many shrewd judges have picked as their banker of the festival & looks to us as being worth his short price at a shade of odds on as he'd surely be a serious contender for the Champion Chase if trainer Nicky Henderson had decided to send him there as a novice. Sprinter Sacre was a top notch novice hurdler & finished 3rd in the Supreme last year behind his biggest rival here Al Ferof, but he was always going to make a better chaser & that goes some way to explaining why Barry Geraghty was on stablemate Spirit Son that day, he now reckons that this may be the best two mile chaser he's ridden & he was Moscow Flyer's regular jockey! On just his second chase Sprinter Sacre slammed Peddlers Cross & has forced that rival to swerve this & go for the Jewson instead & last time out he beat older horses with consumate ease in the Game Spirit at Newbury, a race that has been won by numerous Champion Chasers including Azertyuiop & Master Minded. He's yet to make a single jumping error at his fences & has been spectacular at times but the same couldn't be said of 4th favourite Menorah who has failed to complete in two of five chases & whose only wins have come in three runner races at Taunton & Newbury. Cue Card was a hot favourite in the Supreme Novices last year but only trailed in 4th behind Al Ferof & Sprinter Sacre & has been raced only over further than this since, he's high class but it remains to be seen whether his jumping will hold up at what is likely to be a frenetic pace. Al Ferof is the main danger & warrants respect as this is a horse with Grade One & Two novice chase wins & an impressive 3rd in the Grade One Victor Chandler Chase against top class older horses, finishing close up behind Somersby & Finians Rainbow & showing form that would be more than good enough to win an Arkle normally but maybe not this year. Another worry with Al Ferof is that connections think this trip may be on the short side & they plan to step up to 3 miles next year with the King George a distinct possibility. With already excellent form, awesome jumping & doubts about his rivals Sprinter Sacre really does look the proverbial Festival Banker & should be backed at 10/11.

Selections:

2.05 Sprinter Sacre to win at 10/11 (Paddy Power)

3.20 Zarkandar to win at 7/1 (Betfair)
3.20 Straight Forecast - Zarkandar to beat Rock On Ruby

Followers' best Cheltenham Festival bets

Our Twitter followers have been sending in their big fancies for the Cheltenham Festival & there are some that appear more than once, some that we like the look of & others that we're dead against but we'll be wishing the best of luck to all of them over the course of the four days & hoping that we can help out with our own selections. If you aren't already then you can follow us on Twitter @LikeBuyingMoney by clicking the follow button above & get to join in with these picks & keep up to date with our latest blog posts.

(Montbazon will give at least a couple of followers a nice start if he wins the Supreme Novices)

@danieltnash is going for a bet over the course of the week as he fancies Willie Mullins to be top trainer at a price of 5/4.

@StuartMilne9 has two picks going for Sir Des Champs in whichever race he runs in (which looks like being the Jewson on Thursday (4/1) & we're keen too!) plus Montbazon (15/2) in the Supreme Novices on Tuesday.

@Cian_k_1994 is also going for Montbazon (a horse Alan King is bullish about) in the Supreme Novices even though he's surely too young to be gambling his brains out!

@profitbet (Kevin) is going for Fortification at a massive 25/1 in the Cross Country Chase on Tuesday.

@BusbyBoy (Mark) is going for Sadler's Risk in (I presume) the Triumph Hurdle on Friday, he's 6/1 as we write this but I can say that we will be opposing this one.

@gazbish85 is going for Jessica Harrington's Steps To Freedom (7/1) in the Supreme Novices on Tuesday.

@markq78 is joining Gary above & going for Steps To Freedom saying that many Irish punters will have a great start if that comes in.

@Hinters (Andrew) is going for Grumeti (6/1) in the Triumph Hurdle on Friday & we also think that has a great chance along with Pearl Swan.

@Thomasfrombrum is going for some adventurous bets with a Long Run & Sprinter Sacre double & a Big Bucks & Buena Vista double plus Captain Chris each way at 40/1 in the Gold Cup.

@CMcKenna81 (Colm) is keen on Magnanimity in the 3 mile JLT Specialty Chase on Tuesday saying he was overpriced at 20/1 - he certainly was as 14/1 is the best price available now. He also fancies Cinders and Ashes in the Supreme each way & 10/1 is the price now.

@grahamandre reckons Menorah (11/1) has a top chance if he can sort out his jumping in the Arkle.

@toddycounago is on Prospect Wells (16/1) in the Supreme Novices & it certainly looks like we have a range of opinions in that race!