(Menorah's back over hurdles, but why did they go chasing if he's that good a hurdler?)
The 2m 5f Grade 3 chase looks the big betting race of the day but we're much more interested in the following race - the Grade 2 hurdle over two miles between some of the top established hurdlers & best second season hurdlers. Phillip Hobbs' 6 year old Menorah won this race last year & the 2010 Supreme Novices winner was all the rage for the Champion Hurdle in March going off at 3/1 second favourite behind winner & 11/4 fav Hurricane Fly. When it came to the big day Menorah didn't look quick enough to deal with the very best & a quick look at the horses he'd beaten in his previous races shows you his level of form was a little overrated. Menorah would still have a great chance if running to its best but there must be a reason they went chasing with it last time, there must be a doubt with regards to whether he's really at the top of the hurdling tree.
The other established horse at the top of the betting is Overturn who's been in great form this season, rattling off three front running wins in some style including the Grade 1 Fighting Fifth at Newcastle beating former Champion Hurdler Binocular in the process. Those wins have looked impressive partly due to the style used grinding the opposition down off a strong pace & watching them drop away but we shouldn't get overexcited, Binocular has let down supporters on so many occasions it's scary & the previous two wins came against some very ordinary opposition. Overturn went off 40/1 for the Champion Hurdle here yet is priced up the same as Menorah, there's not enough to suggest Donald McCain's charge has improved that much & we'll leave alone, the Grade 1 penalties that both him & Menorah carry are offputting too.
(Grandouet can make it a great day for rider Barry Geraghty, trainer Nicky Henderson & Like Buying Money followers with a win in Cheltenham's International Hurdle)
We're much keener on the young pair of Paul Nicholls' Brampour & Nicky Henderson's Grandouet, both ran in the Triumph Hurdle at this year's festival with Brampour finishing 9th & Grandouet faring better in getting 3rd behind the imperious looking Zarkandar. Brampour seems to have really stepped up this season winning a Listed handicap at Ascot & then the Greatwood Hurdle here over the same distance last time both under today's promising rider Harry Derham, he doesn't get to use his valuable 7 pound claim here though. Brampour's sire Daylami seems to get some really excellent hurdlers & this could be another one, it would be another step up but we think the strong pace likely to be set up by Overturn will suit, unfortunately for Brampour rival Grandouet will also relish it & might be that bit better.
Grandouet was pretty well fancied for the Triumph & was not disgraced behind two horses with great flat pedigrees & speed, he was then travelling well when brought down at the last at Aintree when looking for revenge against Zarkandar before winning the Grade 1 novice hurdle at Punchestown in striking style. We & many others thought he'd certainly have beaten Celestial Halo if not for falling 2 out on its comeback run in the Kingwell at Wincanton & had a confidence booster last time when winning with consumate ease at Haydock. He looks a very classy sort & will make the most of the 4 pounds received from Menorah & Overturn, we think he's got Brampour's measure as well but there could be a bit of a battle so think a small bet on the reverse forecast of Grandouet & Brampour is worth a bet plus taking Grandouet to win at 3/1 with a smooth victory that will see us & you as some very happy punters.
Selections:
Cheltenham 3.05 - Grandouet to win at 3/1 (various)
Cheltenham 3.05 - Grandouet/Brampour reverse forecast
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