Euro 2012 Final - Pirouhetting Pirlo can put Finishing Touches to Italian Campaign

Euro 2012 has been outstanding throughout & arguably the best international tournament of the last 20 or so years with plenty of teams being competitive & some star performances from individual players, the final is between reigning champions Spain & 1968 winners Italy. Both sides are worthy finalists & it's interesting to see how they'll matchup after having played each other in their Group C opener exactly 3 weeks ago.

(Andrea Pirlo (centre) can lead Italy to Euro glory)

In their group game it was Italy that at first looked outright more likely to score than Spain after Del Bosque decided to start with 6 in midfield & no striker, Spain looked a little toothless at times & it was Italy who made the breakthrough after the misfiring Balotelli was replaced by Di Natale who made a near instant impact with a goal. Spain bounced straight back that day with a typically incisive goal from the classy Cesc Fabregas & afterwards looked slightly the more likely team once Jesus Navas & Fernando Torres were on the pitch, fortunately for Italy, Torres was completely out of sorts in front of goal & missed or messed up several presentable chances.

A lack of goals & clear scoring opportunities is affecting Spain now they are without the first choice David Villa, Torres isn't half the player he once was & playing 6"5 striker Fernando Llorente appears to be anathema to boss Del Bosque, even though he's a very technically competent footballer. Down the right hand side of the Spain shape Xavi & David Silva haven't quite had the success you'd expect from such talented players although it looks like both will almost certainly retain their spots & are clearly capable of harming Italy if they play to their potential. Of course Spain don't need to be scoring by the bucketload to win as they have the meanest defence in football & the only goal they've conceded this tournament was that one from Di Natale, possession & retention of the ball helps & even when they lose it they have an outstanding keeper in Iker Cassilas who is protected by Ramos & Barcelona's bargain of the century Gerard Pique (re-signed from Man Utd for a measly £5m!).

(Spain's Gerard Pique & Iker Cassillas are just about the best stopper/defender combination around)

Italy haven't been setting the tournament alight with plenty of goals themselves, they have been able to create chances but Cassano & Balotelli (up to the last game at least) haven't always been clinical & certainly against England especially the whole team seemed to lack composure in front of goal. That being said they looked outstanding against Germany & completely outclassed England, even though they couldn't score, & the momentum looks to be with them especially as Spain just had to play the full 120 minutes against Portugal, somewhat offsetting their extra rest day advantage. The hope for Italy, & worry for Spain, is that now Balotelli has got himself fired up that he won't be missing some of the chances he was earlier in the tournament, hopefully he'll try to play on the defender's shoulder & stretch the field a little for Italy as that will mean Andrea Pirlo can do his inimitable thing.

Pirlo has been this tournament's standout star & with Cristiano Ronaldo failing to sparkle in the semi final he's now odds on to pick up the Player of the Tournament prize (tipped at 80/1 here), his passing & overall control of the game has been instrumental to Italy's progression but his fellow midfielders have been excellent too. Daniele de Rossi has shown some great movement & work rate & filled in ably at the back in the first two games,Claudio Marchisio has been consistently good all through the tournament & since coming into the side for the knockout games Riccardo Montolivo has added an extra element of trickery & pinpoint passing to the attack. Although Antonio Cassano hasn't, understandably, been able to last out a full 90 minutes in any game so far his movement, touch & general attacking intent have been crucial & he always seems to be available for a pass from his midfielders.

Italy haven't been bad at all at the back either with only 3 goals conceded, & even though he wasn't always conventional at times against Germany, Gianluigi Buffon showed why he, along with opposite number Cassilas, is still a significant step up from any of the up & coming young keepers. We really like Giorgio Chiellini & he was versatile to move out to left back in the last game & provide real threat going forwards against Spain, that moved Balzaretti to right back but he looked just as comfortable there & has been improving throughout the tournament & could give Jordi Alba some real problems if & when Italy break on Spain.

(Antonio Cassano overpriced at 12/1 to score first?)

We mentioned that the full back positions looked to be maybe Spain's one area of weakness before the Portugal game but they countered that against Ronaldo & co by playing pretty much a containing game throughout & Arbeloa & Alba weren't left exposed against the Portuguese pace too often. Arbeloa is surely the worst player in the Spain starting eleven by some way & although we know he's good we haven't always been totally convinced by Alba here, of course they've still played fine (as one goal conceded shows) but they maybe don't quite match up to the rest of Spain's high standards.

In terms of form it might just be Italy that have the edge, they totally outclassed England & only some desperate defending & woodwork stopped them scoring & then they were blistering against Germany with Mario Balotelli coming to life with two good goals. Spain didn't have to be anywhere near their best to beat a shambolic France team & then huffed & puffed against Portugal & you'd say were outplayed in the first half, Italy were better in that opener two, certainly in the first half & that will give a lot of confidence to the betting underdogs.

The problem with beating Spain is simply that they are the ultimate 'hard to beat' team, they control possession & concede so few goals that the best most sides can hope for is a draw, we know all of this yet still find ourselves believing that Italy are the ones to burst Spain's bubble & we reckon they can do it inside 90 minutes at odds of 29/10. Italy have played overall just a bit better than Spain going forward even though they've scored two less, they've hit the woodwork a couple of times & 4 of Spain's goals came against dire Ireland. All the talk will be of Balotelli & that means that we think a bit of value can be found with Antonio Cassano to be first scorer at 12/1, it would be a fairytale story after Cassano's serious health problems but is thoroughly possible & with so much defensive focus on 'Super' Mario he may be the one to find the chances. If Italy are to win the game, even in extra time or penalties, you'd have to make Andrea Pirlo a big favourite to be Man of the Match & odds of 5/1 look fair, it would be a fitting end to an outstanding display of technique & effectiveness throughout the tournament from Italy's Architect.

Selections:
Italy to beat Spain in 90 minutes at 29/10 (BetVictor)
Antonio Cassano to score first at 12/1 (BetVictor & William Hill)
Andrea Pirlo to be Man of the Match at 5/1 (Various)

Michelangelo to deliver a Masterstroke

After Royal Ascot started out so promisingly for us the week turned horrible as several Aidan O'Brien horses ran well below form, particularly Astrology that had his rivals well & truly beat on form in the King Edward VII but couldn't raise a gallop in the last two furlongs. We're looking to bounce back as we go onwards & into the main part of the flat racing season, there are some nice races this Saturday including the Irish Derby, being staged at 7.40pm, & we've found some horses at fair odds to get on.

(Michelangelo getting on top in the Cocked Hat Stakes)

We're real fans of John Gosden's exciting colt Michelangelo & backed it heavily last time when winning a Listed race at Goodwood on only his second start, with Samitar & Rougemont out of this Newmarket race it looks Michelangelo's for the taking. Trainer & rider combination John Gosden & William Buick were in outstanding form at Royal Ascot & Michelangelo has the best form on offer in the race, the one worry is the step back 1 furlong from 1m3f as Michelangelo has a stout pedigree & looks like he could stay at least another 2 furlongs & that was shown when reeling in the front running Expense Claim last time. We wouldn't be surprised to see a much faster start for Michelangelo this time & Buick try to make the running, Newmarket can be a little bit of a test & that would play into this one's hooves, at 10/11 Michelangelo should be backed to win the valuable sales race at 2.00pm.

(Arctic is a sprinter back on the upgrade)

Over in Ireland before the Irish Derby & the return of potential superstar Camelot there is an interesting sprint & with ground conditions in his favour we think that Arctic can follow up its easy win two weeks ago at Navan. Tracey Collins 5 year old gelding is lightly raced with only 12 runs behind him & was excellent at two where he won his first three races including beating crack sprinter Sole Power by 5 lengths in a Listed race & then following up with a wide margin win in a Group/ His win at Navan was his first since that first season but the signs were there to back him as the ground was really soft & was running in handicap company off a mark 20 pounds lower than he'd been rated at when at the top of his game. Arctic has been raised 8 pounds for the Navan win but that looks fair enough & if coming back to form he'll take some stopping as he's a high cruising speed, the one to challenge could be Bertiewhittle but David Barron's decent handicapper let supporters down when well backed at Newbury on Lockinge day & we would rather avoid. At a standout 10/1 with Ladbrokes we think Arctic is nailed on for at least a place & could win this before stepping back up to Listed & Group company.

(Hoof It can power home under Frankie Dettori at Newmarket)

In the Criterion Stakes at Newmarket you can get odds of 2/1 about Hoof It & we reckon that is pretty much a bet of whether he'll get 7 furlongs or not as Mick Easterby's sprinter is a Group One performer (at least in British sprinting) & should pick these rivals up & spit them out. Libranno bounced back to form in a Listed contest at Salisbury last time but the field ended up in a heap at the finish there so the form mightn't be great. Firebeam is Hoof it's chief rival in the betting here but we think its rating of 111 is overestimating just how good William Haggas's gelding is, it comes courtesy of running Red Jazz close last time but that rival was always just about holding him & hasn't run too smartly since anyway. Hoof It won two large field handicaps in taking fashion last year before running creditably in the Group One Nunthorpe & then being very unluckily touched off in a close finish in the Betfred Sprint Cup by the UK's top two sprinters in Dream Ahead & Bated Breath. Hoof It will have to put a somewhat disappointing run in the Temple Stakes behind him but that was its comeback run, he looks such a powerful horse that we think he'll now be able to last out 7 furlongs & frankie Dettori is the right jockey to deliver him at the right time.

Selections:
Newmarket 2.00 - Michelangelo to win at 10/11 (general)
Newmarket 3.35 - Hoof It to win at 2/1 (PaddyPower & Stan James)
Curragh 5.55 - Arctic each way at 10/1 (Ladbrokes)

Euro 2012 2nd Semi Final - Die Mannschaft to give Azzurri the Blues

The second semi final takes place at the National Stadium, Warsaw between our pre-tournament outright pick Germany and England's conquerors Italy. In their respective quarter finals the Germans easily overcame Greece 4-2 whilst Italy dominated an unambitious & technically deficient England side but could only muster victory via a penalty shootout.



(Mario Gomez could return to the starting lineup to feed off the excellent service of Mesut Ozil)

Coach Joachim Low guided his side to a record breaking 15th successive competitive win despite resting the attacking trio of Thomas Muller, Mario Gomez & Lukas Podolski in their quarter final match & gave exciting youngsters Andre Schurrle & Marco Reus and the evergreen Miroslav Klose game time after their limited involvement in the group phrase. Not only did it provide the usual starters a prolonged period of rest but the two youngsters were excellent & Klose popped up with a goal so provides Low with confident attacking options from the bench if needed. There are plenty of calls for all three quarter final attackers to keep their spots & we were hugely impressed with Reus especially - if he's equally effective on the left of attack he could easily nick Lukas Podolski's place in the starting eleven. If Reus does start we think he's a cracking bet to open the scoring at 9/1 & is worth a punt, if he doesn't start & there's a goal before he gets on the pitch you'll get your stake back anyway.

Italy dominated quarter finalists England in every department Sunday night but it doesn't hide the fact they didn't manage to find a breakthrough, they may have hit the woodwork twice & registered nearly twenty attempts on target but none were more than regulation saves for England keeper Joe Hart (who also pulled off one of his now trademark knockdowns straight to an attacker). It means that Italy have only scored one goal in ten games from open play & strikers Mario Balotelli, Antonio Cassano & Antonio Di Natale should find the chances much harder to come by against Germany.



(Stop Andrea Pirlo....... stop Italy?)

Italy do have one of the standout players of the tournament so far in playmaker Andrea Pirlo (tipped here at 80/1 for the player of the tournament title) - it seems unbelievable that Milan released him on a free transfer last summer; a decision which backfired when he guided rivals Juventus to the title last season & he's continued his fine form here. Pirlo has an intriguing battle ahead with the excellent combination of Sami Khedira & Bastian Schweinsteiger looking to stop him pulling the strings for the Italians - if they can, which will be far from easy, then you fear for the Italians in a creative sense & it could spell the end of their championship run.

A changed German side have had virtually a whole week off since their quarter final whilst Italy have had to contend with extra time & penalties two days later. Freshness is with the Germans & Italy also have to cope with a number of muscle injuries to defenders Ignazio Abate & Giorgio Chiellini and Roma's midfielder Daniele De Rossi - it remains to be seen which players recover in time for the game. Italy will also have wing back Christian Maggio suspended for the game which further limits their options, Germany's talisman Bastian Schweinsteiger is a slight injury worry again but he should be ready. Germany seem to have that bit more quality in terms of goal threats throughout the side so take advantage of the general 10/11 on offer for them to beat the Azzurri in 90 minutes & make the final.

Selections:

Germany to beat Italy at 10/11 (various)
Marco Reus to score first at9/1 (Bet365, BetVictor & Stan James)

1st Euro 2012 Semi Final - Primed Portugal can Spank Spain

We'll get to see a real clash of styles on Wednesday night as Portugal's lightning quick, direct & attacking team come up against the last half a decade's dominant football force of the 'Barcelona style' of patient, possession football played by Spain. It should be a really fascinating game & it remains to be seen whether Spain's Iberian rivals are the ones to eventually topple them & stop them winning their third major tournament in a row.

(Portugal can gain some success against Spain starting building with their classy central defenders)

Neither side had tough quarter fnals, with Portugal outclassing the Czech Republic & eventually breaking through late on after numerous near misses earlier in the game. Spain meanwhile could hardly have had an easier game against France with the French seemingly having imploded again before the game & giving a listless display - it was disappointing as Spain don't quite looked to have hit their usual heights & a fully firing France should have given them at least something to think about.

For all their quality Spain really haven't created too many clear cut chances in their games but because they are defensively sound & control the ball so well they don't need to score many as it's difficult to see them conceding often. If you were to pinpoint a defensive weakness it would be Alvaro Arbeloa at right back though & that just happens to be the key position when trying to stop the unstoppable Cristiano Ronaldo - he has been quite brilliant in the last two games & will have plenty of happy thoughts lining up against Spanish players - after all he finds it pretty easy to score against them in his day job at Real Madrid. Ronaldo may be arrogant & seem selfish but you can tell that he really does inspire his team mates around him & there is an awful lot of quality throughout the Portugal team other than their traditional problem position at striker. Portugal have struggled at point ever since record scorer Pauleta retired in 2006, Hugo Almeida will likely play up front but his role will be to hold the ball up & bring others into play more than trying to score himself. If Spain do concentrate on trying to stop Ronaldo specifically (which they may not as they could simply stick to their ideals) they could allow quality passers Meireles & Moutinho to pick out some killer balls.

(Manchester City's golden boy David Silva hasn't fully impressed us this tournament)

Portugal have looked good defensively & the goals they've conceded aren't the kind of ones they should worry about doing so again with the way Spain play,  the two against Denmark were down to not being able to deal with Nicklas Bendtner & the goal against Germany was similar in not coping with Gomez's presence whilst Van der Vaart's goal for Holland was a stunning strike. Other than in the air Portugal have looked slightly weak with balls in behind as Bruno Alves has looked sluggish & the keeper Patricio while competent is certainly the weakest starting keeper left in the competition by a very long way.

We all know Spain's strengths, they play the ultimate team game as they don't rely on any one position or player & don't seem to need everyone to be on their game to be able to pull off the results but we weren't impressed with them against the Italians in the first game or going forwards against Croatia in the last group game. France were so bad it was embarrassing & Vicente del Bosque's men will need to step up to justify their current odds on price to win in 90 minutes especially as his sdie have had two less rest days than Portugal. We prefer the look of Portugal at decent odds & we think they can get off to a flying start with their explosive game, odds of 17/2 for Portugal to be winning at half time & full time are pretty generous & don't require a big outlay for a sizeable return. The Man of the Match market also offers a little value because if Portugal can win Ronaldo seems locked in for the prize & backing him at 6/1 is better than Portugal at 7/2 - he could even get it if the game ends up going to extra time so looks a real value bet.

Selections:
Portugal to beat Spain at half time & full time at 17/2 (BetVictor & 188Bet)
Cristiano Ronaldo to be Man of the Match at 6/1 (Various)

Quarter Final Four - Insert Lazy Italian Job Headline here

England & Italy meet in the last of the quarter finals fighting it out for the 'privilege' of facing Germany in the semi final, neither side will have given that match too much thought yet as their concentration will be solely on this game & it looks like being a difficult one to call either way.

(Mario Balotelli - when he's good he's very very good but when he's bad he is horrid!)

England have seemingly already exceeded expectations at home by qualifying at the top of their group ahead of France & although they haven't looked technically great they have looked well disciplined & resolute & have been succeeding with a real team effort. Steven Gerrard has to be considered the standout performer in the tournament for England going forwards with some outstanding deliveries & he seems to relish his role as captain, he's certainly the type of player that others can rally around & arguably should have had the captaincy before now. At the back although Chelsea performers John Terry & Ashley Cole have been receiving the plaudits (Terry does play with a certain exuberance with goal line clearances etc.) we think that Joleon Lescott has been rocksteady, just like he was for Man City all year, & it's that base that they can work with for some real solidity.

Italy have been pretty solid at the back themselves, conceding just twice in 1-1 draws with Spain & Croatia & they are two good sides so there was little disgrace there - they are going to be without their robust defender Giorgio Chiellini though & it will be interesting to see how they set up without him. Daniele De Rossi could fall back into the centre of a three man defence just as they played in the first two games & he did perform very creditably in that role. The worry with De Rossi in defence is that he won't necessarily cope with a big physical striker up against him & that must make Hodgson tempted to play footballing Neanderthal Andy Carroll as his front man. Italy did not look weakened in central midfield without De Rossi in those first two games with the technical excellence of Motta, Marchisio & the outstanding so far Andrea Pirlo helping them to control possession & look for openings. It will be fascinating to see those three go up against England's more rough & ragged, but extremely hardworking Gerrard & Parker, James Milner will be looking to get narrow when his support is needed too.

(England's hopes are resting on you Mr Rooney - perform!)

For England it seems that all hopes rest with the near mythical Wayne Rooney, on his day Rooney can be up there with some of the best in the world but we feel he's essentially a streaky player who goes through very good periods & then some very poor periods rather than being consistently great. Rooney's touch looked bad at times against Ukraine & he was more reminiscent of the player who toiled so badly at World Cup 2010 than the one who has terrorised Premier League defences for the last couple of seasons, he did get his goal though & England fans will hope he can kick on from that. Rooney has been considered slightly temperamental at times & that certainly caused him to be banned for the first two games, he did only pick up three yellows all season for Man United & looks to have calmed a little - the same cannot be said for the enigmatic Mario Balotelli.

Reports suggest that Balotelli is going to be recalled to the starting lineup after his late, very good, goal to wrap up the win against Ireland, he's an outstanding talent & will know any weaknesses in Joe Hart's or Joleon Lescott's paly that could be exploited. We don't seem to be able to find the stats up to the end of the season but in April Balotelli was leading the league in goals per minute played & that doesn't surprise as his accuracy is second to none with him seemingly able to place the ball in the corners of the net at will. Of course Balotelli is what is officially known as 'a lunatic' & there's a theory that England players will look to wind him up but it will have been drilled into him that the best way to respond is with goals & at 8/1 Balotelli's value to bag the first of the game.

So far in the tournament there have been five 1-1 results & these two sides have been in matches accounting for three of those & the way that they set out it does make a similar result to that quite likely with their disciplined defensive setups but still with quality forwards, at odds of 11/2 backing the 1-1 correct score is a play. Even if Italy can score first England seem to have a never say die attitude & have the ability with their deliveries in the box to bounce back, if it goes the other way & England can make a breakthrough they have looked vulnerable with a lead in all three games & could easily concede.

Selections:

1-1 Correct Score at 11/2 (various)

Mario Balotelli to score first at 8/1 (various) + scorecast Balotelli 1-1 at 35/1+

Euro 2012 Quarter Final Three - France & Spain to keep it tight

Saturday sees the third quarter final & it's probably just about the pick of the bunch with the world's number one team Spain taking on close neighbours France in a matchup of two of the best technical teams in the tournament. Ronaldo & Portugal did the business for us in the first quarter final but Germany lost concentration & couldn't win to nil against Greece - we're trying to find more success in this game & Italy v England on Sunday.

(Iniesta has been Spain's star man so far)

Neither France or Spain have played up to their form in the tournament up to this game with Italy looking more dangerous in Spain's opener & they also looked ponderous against Croatia, France huffed & puffed against England & then threw in an aberration of a performance against Sweden & ended up losing 2-0.

France just haven't looked to have enough of a cutting edge, Benzema has played well but has too often been facing away from goal in an attempt to bring his midfielders into play. Franck Ribery hasn't done enough for us especially with his considerable talent & France don't seem to be able to decide who should be their wide right player with Nasri, Menez & Ben Arfa starting there in the first three games respectively. Too often the French have had to rely on distance shooting, which is odd considering the intricacy they can play with, & that doesn't bode well against the excellent shot stopper that is Iker Casillas in Spain's goal.

Spain have hardly been sparkling going forward either, we can't give the Ireland game too much weight because Ireland were so bad, they had no point of attack against Italy & didn't create anywhere near enough against Croatia. Spain do look better when Iniesta gets on the ball with him looking to release it & then make runs behind the defence & he could do well against the French defence that will be missing the suspended Philippe Mexes at centre back.

(Franck Ribery has somewhat underperformed for France & needs to step up his game)

France haven't looked all that convincing in defence other than at right back where Debuchy has really announced himself as a smart prospect, their central defenders have looked a little one paced  indecisive at times & Gael Clichy coming in to replace Evra really hasn't helped at left back - Sweden seemed to have identified him as a weak link & attacked regularly down that side. Spain however have conceded the least goals in the tournament, keeping clean sheets in their last two & gaining their trademark 1-0 win last time out, with Casillas in goal they are tough to score against & they keep possession so well opposing teams get few chances against them.

We can see this being a really tight affair & there is some value to be had backing under 1.5 goals at 2/1 with Ladbrokes & Stan James as this could easily end up being settled by a single goal, we prefer to take Spain to win 1-0 though just as they did in the three knockout games leading up to final of the World Cup, the bet is available at 11/2. We don't feel that Spain have been at their best but feel that France mightn't be the right type of team to beat them at this stage although a semi final against Portugal could be a different story.......

Selection:
Spain to win 1-0 at 11/2 (BetVictor & Ladbrokes)

Euro 2012 Quarter Finals - Friday 22nd June

Germany are highly fancied for outright victory for Euro 2012 & were our pre-tournament picks for glory, they'll need to progress past Group A runners up Greece but if they can they'll be favourites to beat either Italy or England in the semi finals. Our preview & one solid bet for the game is below & we'll be hoping it can prove to be as successful as our Portugal picks in the first quarter final.

(Mesut Ozil & Bastian Schweinsteiger can provide the chances for Germany to prosper)

The second Quarter Final takes place at the PGE Arena, Gdansk with Germany playing Euro 2004 winners Greece. Germany came through the 'group of death' with a perfect record with nine points whilst Greece sprung a surprise beating Russia & claiming the runners-up spot in Group A. The German side picks itself apart from the right back spot where Joachim Low has the choice between Jerome Boateng & Lars Bender. Despite a well taken strike by Bender against Denmark we would expect Low to return to the reliable Boateng for this one.

By winning all three of their group games; Germany have extended their winning streak to 14 competitive games & look the side to beat in Euro 2012, they have quality throughout & look to have the best balanced side in the tournament which doesn't seem to have an obvious weakness. Their defensive unit of keeper Manuel Neuer & back four of Phillip Lahm, Mats Hummels, Holger Badstuber & Jerome Boateng have faced moments of pressure, most notably the second half vs Holland, & have looked solid. Here they will face a lone striker so we can't envisage any real problems in open play but they will need to sharpen up when defending set pieces after conceding a sloppy set play goal against Denmark.

Bastian Schweinsteiger, Sami Khedira & Mesut Ozil will have lots & lots of possession as the Greek side sit deep in their own half with numbers behind the ball. All three players have plenty of experience & won't panic in possession & will keep the ball moving between them until that perfect pass is available to the attacking trio Lukas Podolski, Thomas Muller & spearhead Mario Gomez. Gomez already has three goals to his name & will be looking to push on in his personal pursuit of the golden boot but there's no value in him to score first or at anytime in the markets.

The Greeks have had a mixed tournament in terms of results & performances so far & it was a surprise they made it out of the group at the expense of Russia & co-hosts Poland. At the start of the tournament they tried to be more offensive which saw them only pick up one point from two games so when needing a result against Russia they reverted back to their ultra defensive philosophy & shape. They stole a goal on the stroke of half time through Giorgios Karagounis & spent the whole of the second half sitting deep & defending in numbers as they withstood all that was thrown at them with relative ease & not a little defensive confidence. Greece may find it harder to hold firm against the Germans though as they can break down sides with directness & power but also with the guile of Schweinsteiger & Ozil's passing.

(The suspension of Giorgios Karagounis is a major blow to Greek hopes)

The Greeks may have to alter their game plan slightly due to the suspension of inspirational captain Giorgios Karagounis after he was harshly booked for diving when actually cleared tripped by Russia's Sergei Ignashevich. The likelihood is that either Grigoris Makos or Giorgos Fotakis will replace him but neither player has the same influence or ability as Karagounis to fill the void. Not only is Karagounis the driving force behind the side but also delivers expertly into the penalty box, without his delivery you can't see a way of Greece breaching a solid German defence so take advantage of the evens on offer for Germany to win with a clean sheet.

Selections:
Germany to win with a clean sheet at evens (Stan James)

Royal Ascot Day Four - Raindancing Queen to have her Coronation

The ground at Ascot has really got very soft after large amounts of rain throughout Thursday & whilst it didn't suit our picks on Thursday, Fame And Glory was particularly disappointing, we think it should suit our ones today as we look to bounce back.

(Homecoming Queen can leave her rivals in the shade in the Coronation Stakes)

Homecoming Queen won the 1,000 Guineas on ground quite a bit softer than the official good to soft going by a record 9 lengths & the rain that has fallen is very much in her favour in the Coronation Stakes. Although Aidan O'Brien's filly could only get 4th in the Irish Guineas that was on much quicker ground & the form isn't so bad anyway with the 2nd there, Ishvana, winning for O'Brien here on Wednesday. Homecoming Queen needs to turn tthe form around with Mick Channon's Samitar but that one looks a top of the ground horse & the importance of underfoot conditions can't be overstated. Channon's other hope here is Laugh Out Loud & whilst she was a long way behind the pick at Newmarket she's bounced back to win twice, at York & in France, the York form hasn't held up too great though but she should handle conditions here. Elusive Kate is a very nice horse & is already a Group One winner but she's another who mightn't appreciate the ground & it won't be easy for her to win on her first run of the year anyway & Gosden's other runners Starscope & Fallen For You look just about held on form. With several runners ruled out on form or ground concerns we think that Homecoming Queen looks a nice bet at 7/2, she has the best connections & Joseph O'Brien could get a nice ride on the way to another big race win.

(Astrology will relish underfoot conditions & can win the King Edward VII Stakes)

In the preceding race we think that Aidan O'Brien has a good thing in Derby third Astrology, the colt won impressively on very soft ground at Chester & was only just run out of 2nd in the Derby after leading for so long. The Derby form sets Astrology quite a bit clear of some of his rivals here with Thought Worthy another 6 lengths behind & that one having only beaten Noble Mission by a neck in its race before that. Noble Mission is a full brother to Frankel but obviously nowhere near as talented but connections must think he's at least got a chance of turning form around with Thought Worthy as they've a 5 pound pull in the weights. Thomas Chippendale looks to be Cecil's second string & is a way off in form terms anyway & Initiator & Farhaan look well held. The one that could be a danger is the somewhat disappointing so far Shantaram - Gosden's stable jockey is on this one instead of Thought Worthy (ridden by Gold Cup winning jockey Frankie Dettori) & this test looks perfect on breeding. Shantaram was only 3/4 of a length away from Derby second Main Sequence in the Lingfield trial & he eventually got off the mark at prohibitive odds of 1/8 last time, with a bit more improvement he could figure. Astrology could well set the pace again but rather than going off quite so quickly as in the Derby when setting it up for stablemate Camelot he'll be looking to win himself here & that should increase his chances, odds of 5/4 are perfectly reasonable.

Selections:
3.05 Royal Ascot - Astrology to win at 5/4 (general)
3.05 Royal Ascot - straight forecast Astrology to beat Shantaram
3.45 Royal Ascot - Homecoming Queen at 7/2 (general)

Royal Ascot Day Three - Cay Verde can jet away from rivals

Day two of Royal Ascot wasn't so kind to us with our outsider bets not managing to land a blow but we're back & looking at Ladies Day to find the winners & we like our chances of trebling up in the first three races.

(Fame And Glory can delight the Royal Ascot crowd with another Gold Cup win)

Fame And Glory can win a second Gold Cup at odds of Evens & make it 6 wins in 7 runnings for trainer Aidan O'Brien, he's got the beating of his main rivals here & looks better the further he goes. f there is a time for Fame And Glory to be vulnerable you'd say early or late in the season & we tried to get the better of him in his comeback run by backing Unaccompanied but he prevailed by a neck & O'Brien will have him spot on for this race. Opinion Poll is a very good horse but has been well beaten by the pick a couple of times & the other Godolphin horse Colour Vision was behind both Opinion Poll & Fame And Glory in a two mile race here last year. Saddlers Rock is the interesting one courtesy of  a storming win at Doncaster at the end of 2011 when beating Opinion poll by 4 lengths but John Oxx's horse really only has the one piece of form putting him close to these top stayers & was beaten at Leopardstown two weeks ago.

(Speedy, versatile with regards to ground & great form - Cay Verde's the bet in the opener)

In the opener Cay Verde's form has taken a massive boost with the horses that have finished 2nd to him in his last two races finishing 1st & 3rd in Tuesday's Windsor Castle stakes. Mick Channon's Bahamian Bounty colt picked up his maiden here in soft ground & has since gone to the Curragh & won on good/good to firm with authority there so looks pretty versatile & certainly precocious enough to take this. Aidan O'Brien's Gale Force Ten could be a danger as he's some decent form in beating Leitir Mor last time & that one finished 7th in the Coventry on Tuesday. The other one we like is in the same ownership as the pick & that's Ahern who won very impressively at Musselburgh despite blowing the start, this will be a pretty speedy race & he will need to be much tidier if he's going to challenge here. Cay Verde has already achieved the most of these  has a Listed win under his belt, the form stacks up & odds of 3/1 are very tempting indeed.

(The Fugue (far left) can get a better run & finish in front of Shirocco Star (centre) in the Ribblesdale)

The Ribblesdale is a quality race for middle distance fillies & Oaks form is great to bring into the race & the 2nd, 3rd & 4th from Epsom are all competing here. Shirocco Star ran Was to a neck in the Oaks but we prefer the chances of the 3rd that day The Fugue, she had a terrible passage & was nearly brought down at one point yet she showed toughness & class to end up just about a length away in 3rd, with better luck here she can win in style. The Fugue has great connections, John Gosden trains, & top middle distance breeding - we really liked her dam Twyla Tharp who was by Sadler's Wells, she can use her stamina base to charge down the finishing straight to the win here. Vow was 4th in the Oaks & that was impressive for just her third run but she'll have to improve again to get past The Fugue who was a length clear of her even with her troubled passage. We can see The Fugue going off shorter than the current odds of 2/1 & she should be backed at that price.

Selections:
2.30 Royal Ascot - Cay Verde to win at 3/1 (general)
3.05 Royal Ascot - The Fugue to win at 2/1 (general)
3.45 Royal Ascot - Fame And Glory to win at Evens (general)

Euro 2012 Quarter Final One - Powerful Portuguese to Sweep to Semi

Well the teams meeting each other in the quarter final stages are all decided now & we've had three games to assess the form of all the sides & some are looking stronger than others & Germany backers must be starting to feel confident after they continued their competitive game winning streak through the toughest Group on show. Portugal also came through Group B & managed a couple of wins, only losing to the Germans & playing respectably in that game, they take on Group A winners the Czech Republic on Thursday night in Warsaw.

(Joao Moutinho can run the midfield for Portugal)

Although these may not be the very best two teams in the quarter finals this game may well end up being the pick of the bunch from a spectator's perspective as both teams strength lies in attack with Ronaldo spearheading Portugal's pacy forward line & Jiracek & Pilar coming in from wide areas to cause problems on behalf of the Czech Republic. All three players we mentioned there have a couple of goals apiece but it's Ronaldo who appeals as likely to thrive here, he really came to life against Holland, his eyes lit up once he realised the Dutch defence weren't up to scratch & he was able to run at them because they needed to attack & he put in an excellent display & could have ended up with more than two against them.

The Czech defence hasn't looked too clever at times & that could spell danger with Ronaldo on the pitch, although they have looked better with Kadlec back at centre back rather than out on the left where ex-Tottenham loanee David Limbersky has come into the side. Theo Gebre Selassie has been pretty impressive going forward from right back for the Czech's but he'll be directly up against Ronaldo here & we don't think he'll cope so Ladbrokes offers of 4/1 for Ronaldo to score first & 5/4 to score anytime should be punted heavily. Nani has been playing at a really high level for the tournament & he's always keeping his head up looking for Ronaldo to pass to when he has the ball & we wouldn't be surprised to see him provide the assist.

(Czech defender Michal Kadlec is on penalty duty - value at 9/1 to score at anytime?)

Key Czech playmaker Tomas Rosicky is a doubt for the game & he'll be a miss, he certainly performs at a higher level for country than club as we've seen many anonymous performances from him for Arsenal. Milan Baros no longer looks to have goals in him but he does do well at bringing Pilar & Jiracek into play & they often make darting diagonal runs into the box either with or without the ball & the Portuguese defence will need to improve if they are to keep a clean sheet. In fairness Portugal's main defensive problems have looked to be when balls are played into the box at head height & only conceded against Holland thanks to an outrageous Van der Vaart strike. The Czech's shouldn't be bombing too many crosses in but they do attach the edges of the area at speed & that means that defenders need to be careful about not committing themselves to challenges as a penalty could be easily conceded. Defender Michal Kadlec is on penalty duty for the Czech's & he's probably slightly overpriced at 9/1 to score anytime as he also gets forward for set pieces & has 8 goals in 37 games for the national team.

We see plenty of excitement & goals in this game, both teams have seen over 2.5 goals in two of their three games so far & odds of 5/4 about over 2.5 goals seem fair, we don't buy that this will be a tense, nervy affair as Portugal now realise they have to put their faith in Ronaldo if they are going to go all the way & they'll look to feed him the ball with regularity. Both teams are good on the counter with pacy wide players but we see Portugal more successfully 'countering the counters'  breaking whilst Gebre Selassie tries to get forward in  attack & we like the look of a Portugal win in 90 minutes at 4/5 with Paddy Power.

Selections:
Portugal to beat Czech Republic at 4/5 (Paddy Power)
Over 2.5 goals at 5/4 (188Bet)
Ronaldo to score first at 4/1 & anytime at 5/4 (Ladbrokes)
Michal Kadlec to score at anytime at 9/1 (Ladbrokes)

Royal Ascot Day Two - Bonnie & Lora to strike for the girls

Day two of Royal Ascot  sees us slow down a bit from the first day & the three Group Ones plus Frankel to start with, it's still a great card with four Group races, a Listed handicap & the ultra competitive Royal Hunt Cup. We gave you Excelebration to win without Frankel & Side Glance yesterday (2nd & 3rd behind Frankel) & we'll be looking for more winners for Wednesday's racing below.

(Bonnie Brae can go one better than she managed in the Victoria Cup)

The Royal Hunt Cup is one of the handicaps of the season & with 30 runners in the field it certainly won't prove easy, in the last 10 runnings 7 of the winners have been a double figure price & currently there's only one horse on offer at less than 10/1 - the likeable Dimension. James Fanshawe has won this twice as a trainer & dimension won a handicap back here in September before a decent comeback run when coming 2nd to Bronze Prince at Lingfield. Dimension also fits the profile of a typical winner, being a 4 year old with potential for improvement but he has come 2nd four times in his 11 race career already & we don't like to see that.

Rock Critic is interesting as at 7 years old he's still only had 16 runs for Derot Weld & has clearly been difficult to keep healthy but connections have persevered & now have a very nice handicapper that has won 5 of its last 8 runs. For once though Weld's runners aren't absolutely flying & tempted as we are at a price of 20/1 we'll leave alone. The horse we like for this one is probably very slightly older than ideal but Bonnie Brae seems to have kept improving & is quite closely matched with the favourite Dimension on form linking them both to Bronze Prince. Dominic Elsworth's mare handles cut in the ground & she finished 2nd here on her seasonal debut in the very valuable 24 runner Victoria Cup which shows she should handle the race just fine. We can write off Bonnie Brae's last run where she came 10th as there was firm in the description of the going, top jockey Ryan 'Smiler' Moore is again partnering her & she should give him a great ride at juicy odds of 18/1. There are a few firms offering 5 places in the race so if you do back each way make sure to get on with those.

(Falls Of Lora can bounce back to form in the Sandringham)

We love the chances of the Godolphin horse Falls Of Lora in the last race of the day, she won impressively at Dubai earlier in the year but then failed to fire against the colts in the UAE Derby although the race didn't appear to suit closers that day & she should get a true enough pace here. Falls Of Lora has already won here when winning a conditions race in impressive fashion last September & this is certainly tougher but we think she might just have shown the highest level of form yet is getting 7 pounds off of top weight Electrelane. Electrelane has a mark of 109 courtesy of a length 2nd to Laugh Out Loud where she finished 10 lengths clear of the rest at York but we're unconvinced about those horses in behind although Laugh out Loud went on to win the French race with the same name as this.

Frankie Dettori is on the other Godolphin runner but it seems unclear whether he's first jockey now anyway & Falls Of Lora had his mount Pimpernel well behind when winning in Dubai. At odds of 20/1 back Mikael Barzalona to show why he's Godolphin's number one, he can guide Falls Of Lora home with a late rattle.

Selections:
4.25 Royal Ascot - Bonnie Brae each way at 18/1 (Totesport & Betfred + first 5 places pay)
5.35 Royal Ascot - Falls Of Lora each way at 20/1 (William Hill)

Euro 2012 Fixtures - Tuesday 19th June

The final group games see France, England & Ukraine fight it out for the final two quarter final spots with France up against already eliminated Sweden & England taking on co-hosts Ukraine & they will face a hostile partisan atmosphere - can they overcome it? We'll be back with a preview of Thursday's first quarter final between Portugal & the Czech Republic, check out our Royal Ascot bets during the small break in football betting & fill your coffers up that way too!

(Wayne Rooney is out of the stands & straight back into England's starting eleven)

7:45 pm - England vs Ukraine

England's final group game is against co-hosts Ukraine at the Donbass Arena, Donetsk as both sides battle it out to reach the knockout stages. Ukraine must win the match to qualify at the expense of England whilst a draw will be good enough for Roy Hodgson's side to progress.

England have picked up four points with victory over Sweden & a draw with current group leaders France. For the first time in the tournament England have a full squad to pick from as Wayne Rooney returns from his two match suspension & Hodgson has confirmed Rooney will start the game so one of Danny Welbeck & Andy Carroll will miss out.

Winger Theo Walcott changed the game against Sweden with his goal & assist for Welbeck which meant a  1-2 deficit was turned into a 3-2 victory. He picked up a minor strain but has been declared fit so leaves Hodgson a choice of rewarding him a start (replacing either James Milner & Ashley Young) or again using him as an impact sub?

Ukraine have a concern over veteran striker Andrei Shevchenko who is rated 50:50 but we would be very surprised if he misses out on what has been described as 'the biggest game in the country's history' by fellow forward Andrei Voronin. Shevchenko is Ukraine's biggest treat & did cause problems to French centre back duo Phillippe Mexes & Adil Rami but apart from a few glimpses from winger Andriy Yarmolenko there attacking quality isn't great. But they will be looking to put pressure on England with set plays as England struggled & conceded two goals vs Sweden via this route.

This should be another tight affair with a raucous crowd behind the co-hosts Ukraine creating an electric atmosphere. But England with the returning Rooney should be too strong for Ukraine & three points will mean a quarter final berth at the best price of 5/4. 

(Striker Karim Benzema will look to open his tournament account against eliminated Sweden)

7:45 pm - Sweden vs France

The other game in Group D sees current leaders France play Sweden at the Olympic Stadium, Kiev. Les Blues look certain to qualify as only an England defeat, combined with them losing by a bigger margin can put them out whilst Sweden have already been eliminated with their defeat the other night.

France have a concern over midfielder Yohan Cabaye who has a slight knock but in Yann M'Vila they have a readymade replacement so the balance of the team won't change if needed. Against Ukraine the attacking midfield trio of Franck Ribery, Samir Nasri & goalscorer Jeremy Menez were excellent & their constant changing of positions will cause the weak defensive unit of Sweden major headaches. Again their creativity will provide Karim Benzema with plenty of goalscoring opportunities so take advantage of the 6/4 available for him to score at anytime as with Ronaldo the other night it's only a matter of time before he finds the net.

Sweden will be going home after this match so coach Erik Hamren has indicated a number of fringe players may get their opportunities. One definite change is that either Markus Rosenburg or Ola Toivonen will replace Johan Elmader in attack & partner the outstanding Zlatan Ibrahimovic. Ibrahimovic was hugely disappointed with the outcome in the England match & French midfielders M'Vila & Alou Diarra will need to pay close attention to him as his deeper role means he'll be playing in the space between him & the back four. As well as being vulnerable to set pieces themselves, Sweden, are a threat with good delivery from either Kim Kallstrom or Sebastian Larsson & Olof Mellberg will want to add another international goal to his collection before his likely retirement from the tournament arena. The suspicion is that the Swedes will prove a touch deflated now that they are eliminated, after turning around a goal deficit into a 2-1 lead only to then lose against England, if France can take a lead we see Sweden heads dropping & a good win could be on the cards & we'll have a small punt on a 3-0 France win at 14/1.

Selections:
England to beat Ukraine at 5/4 (Paddy Power/Stan James)
France to beat Sweden 3-0 at 14/1 (various)
Karim Benzema to score at anytime vs Sweden at 6/4 (BlueSquare)

Royal Ascot Day One - Unbeatable Frankel?

Royal Ascot always gets off to a bang with the three opening races being Group Ones & this year the highest rated horse in the world, Frankel, is in the opener the Queen Anne Stakes. It should be a cracking day's racing & we've taken a look at all of the races to come up with a couple of value bets at big prices. As ever you can follow us on Twitter @LikeBuyingMoney by clicking the Follow button at the top of the page.

 (Amour Propre is a class animal & a course & distance winner running in the King's Stand Stakes)

The King's Stand Stakes sees a big old field of 23 runners & that may be aprtly down to some of these horses wanting to avoid running in the Golden Jubilee against wonder filly, the monstrously huge Black Caviar, it makes for a really interesting race & there looks to be a bit of value available too. We're not quite sure why but Ascot seems to be a course where it helps to be a bit of a specialist, it isn't too undulating & the bends seem very standard so you'd guess that the surface must suit some types more than others & we've looked at those with a bit of course form & the one that stands out at a huge price is Henry Candy's Amour Propre. Amour Propre is a lightly raced horse for a 6 year old with just 14 runs to its name but 5 wins from those races which indicates the consistency the gelding runs at & one of those wins was a course & distance win, in softish ground, as a two year old in the Cornwallis Stakes.

Sole Power is fairly well fancied for this & at single figure prices with some firms but Amour Propre gave that one a comprehensive beating at the Curragh last August & although he was receiving five pounds that day there's no way Amour Propre should be a 40/1 shot & should be backed with a bit of confidence each way. We're big Bated Breath fans but the give underfoot probably won't play to that one's strengths & Roger Charlton's form seems to have slightly dropped off & it's difficult to know what to make of foreign raiders Joy & Fun & Little Bridge although often our horses aren't the best sprinters around so they must have a chance. Australian horse Ortensia is probably the best of the foreign contingent & if you only want to back a horse to win we'd probably lean towards that one at 5/1 but we'll happily stay with our overpriced pick.

(Side Glance could offer a value alternative bet in the Queen Anne stakes)

The Queen Anne stakes really does look like being a formality for the great Frankel, he's already beaten five of his ten rivals here with some authority & his top rated rival is Excelebration who he's beaten 4 times so far & should make it five. Therefore, assuming Frankel is going to win, the betting has to be done in the 'without Frankel' market where the very consistent & classy in his own right Excelebration leads the market at 11/10 & is a very good bet, chief rival in the market Strong Suit hasn't run since the Breeders Cup in November & O'Brien's colt is probably better anyway. Joseph O'Brien shouldn't get so excited that he actually tries to ride Excelebration to beat Frankel, he'll ignore what he does & ride his own race & that should guarantee second & if anything 'strange' happens with Frankel he'll be best placed to take advantage.

Other than Excelebration we also really like the chances of one of very favourites in Side Glance, Ascot is a specialists' track & Andrew Balding's charge is a two time course winner plus came 2nd of 28 in a very competitive heritage handicap. It seems that Side Glance takes a while to get going in the season as his first two runs were below par efforts but he came back last time & won pretty well at Epsom & beat Worthadd fair & square so it seems odd that rival is ahead of him in the betting. At 16/1 in the without Frankel market Side Glance is a very solid each way bet & we'll team that up with the already mentioned Excelebration bet to give ourselves plenty to cheer even whilst Frankel streaks away.

Selections:
2.30 Royal Ascot - Excelebration to win at 11/10 (William Hill) in without Frankel market
2.30 Royal Ascot - Side Glance each way at 16/1 (Bet365) in without Frankel market
3.05 Amour Propre each way at 40/1 (various)

Euro 2012 Fixtures - Monday 18th June

We were hammered by Russia's dreadful loss on Saturday as many other punters appeared to be too but didn't let it get us down too badly & fired back with a quickfire double last night on Germany & over 2.5 goals in the Holland v Portugal game - we're back with more bets from the finely poised Group C on Monday night.

(Luka Modric will match up against the similarly technically gifted Spain midfielders)

7:45 pm - Spain vs Croatia

Group C's first game sees a strange situation where a 2-2 draw would guarantee that both Spain & croatia would qualify for the quarter final stage regardless of what Italy do against Ireland in the other game. Both sides are saying, of course, that they aren't going to play out the result & will be going for the win but some bookmakers seem very distrusting & have priced up 2-2 as short as 4/1! (Coral, William Hill & BetVictor)

Croatia & Spain both looked very good when playing Ireland although the way that Ireland have played doesn't say a lot, Spain went with an orthodox formation in their first game but looked much better when starting with a true forward in Fernando Torres last time. Torres bagged himself a couple of goals against Ireland & that should help settle him down after his horror show after coming on as a sub in the first game. We still aren't convinced that he's anywhere near the player he was 3 years ago & that does mean that unless Spain are creating chances at will they might struggle to score too many as they don't have quite the cutting edge of some of the other sides in the competition. Pique & Ramos are still trying to develop a partnership in central defence & they certainly miss Carlos Puyol, both full backs Alba & Arbeloa picked up bookings in the first game & that could mean a potential rest for them. If both wide defenders do start then Croatia will look to get at them, knowing they could be hesitant in challenges, & Darijo Srna was great against Italy regularly overlapping & getting down the right hand side.

Spain should be outright better in the centre of midfield although Croatia have their own master technician in Modric, if the game is played as competitively as both teams say it will then we will wee Croatia look to concede plenty of possession & hit on the break & they could have some success. Mario Mandzukic has eventually started to find some scoring form for his country & Nikica Jelavic's physical presence should unsettle some of the cultured Spanish players. We think the draw has a big chance of happening here & that 2-2 shouldn't be discounted, Sportingbet go a standout 7/1 but we think a small play on Croatia on the draw no bet market at 9/2 on the exchanges is the way to go. Spain looked like they could get caught at times by Italy & Croatia outplayed the same opponents in the second half last time which suggests they should be competitive, we don't want to take anything from either sides' game against Ireland.

(Italy's Claudio Marchisio could bag himself a goal against the porous Irish defence)

7:45 pm - Italy vs Republic of Ireland

In the other game Italy will be looking to stick a few goals past the already eliminated Ireland as they look to put themselves in a position to qualify, Ireland have been dreadful but the only change they're going to make for the final game is bringing back Kevin Doyle to the starting lineup, which can hardly be pushed as too much of a positive as he's been poor for club & country for a long time. Trapattoni must be very disappointed by his players, they aren't the greatest but their displays so far have been below the levels required & even dependable figures have let him down, including goalkeeper Shay Given who looks to be a fading force.

Italy look like they may drop the misfiring Balotelli, but seemingly not for his ineffective displays & instead because of a knee injury, Di Natale should now get his chance & he's speedy even at 34 & could embarrass the lumbering Irish defenders. Andrea Pirlo has been their outstanding player, as we flagged up pre-tournament, & he should be given plenty of opportunities to thread the ball through to Di Natale & Cassano. Claudio Marchisio has been getting forward at times & we reckon the 11/2 available for him to score at anytime could be a decent play, he's only one goal for Italy so far but scored ten goals for Juventus last season & they should go with a very attacking mentality here.

We were really impressed with Italy in their first game against Spain & they looked pretty good against Croatia in the first half too but then went negative in the second half & paid the price by conceding & only getting a draw. Cesare Prandelli really should have learnt his lesson for the rest of the tournament & he can start off by setting his team to go on an all out offensive against Ireland here, odds of 10/11 for Italy to win with a -1 goal handicap seem very big & we're going to back heavily, we can see a bigger margin than two goals opening up with Ireland having nothing but pride to play for.

Selections:
Croatia to beat Spain on the draw no bet market at 9/2 (Betfair) 
Italy to beat Ireland with -1 goal at 10/11 (SkyBet)
Claudio Marchisio to score at anytime at 11/2 (SkyBet)

Euro 2012 Fixtures - Sunday 17th June

Can the final Group B games eclipse the surprising & exciting climax in Group A last night? Bookies won the battle yesterday with Russia as short as 1.02 on betfair to qualify for the knock out rounds being beaten by Greece & put out of the tournament. But us punters can get back to winning ways with a simple double tonight...

(The magnificent Bastian Schweinsteiger looks to dominate another opposing side)

7:45 pm - Denmark vs Germany

At the Arena Lviv unbeaten Germany play Denmark who currently sit third in Group B - a draw for Germany would seal top spot but if they lose they could surprisingly bow out of the tournament if Portugal beat Holland whilst Denmark are guaranteed progression if they win but a draw will also be good enough if Portugal lose to Holland.

Germany have lived up to their billing as one of the tournament favourites with victories over Portugal & Holland. All three of Germany's goals have come from striker Mario Gomez who is putting behind him his disappointing display in the Champions League final for Bayern Munich to spearhead the German onslaught. It's no surprise he is getting the opportunities when you have the class of Lukas Podolski, Mesut Ozil & Thomas Muller supplying the ammunition. Behind this quartet you have the classy Bastian Schweinsteiger, two assists so far, who never gives the ball away & it's not like he plays five yard sideways passes but real decisive killer balls which split opposition defences apart & create goal scoring opportunities.

Denmark has shown a number of battling qualities in their first two games. Firstly, a superb defensive display to keep the talented Holland attack at bay in a 1-0 victory & then to comeback from 2-0 down against Portugal to draw level but unfortunately undone by conceding a late winner. They are enforced into one change with flying winger Dennis Rommedahl pulling a hamstring so Tobias Mikkelsen is likely to get the nod over Lasse Schone. Striker Nicklas Bendtner scored a brace against Portugal & has the qualities to cause the defensive duo of Mats Hummels & Holger Badstuber problems in the air if the Danish players can provide need plenty of decent balls.

Germany are a step up in class & consistency compared to Portugal & Holland so look a solid bet at 8/13 as Denmark face a hugely difficult task to get the points required to make the knockout rounds.

(Can Cristiano Ronaldo spring into life & guide his side out of the group?)

7:45 pm - Portugal vs Holland

The other match in Group B looks an entertaining affair on paper as Portugal go up against Holland at the Metalist Stadium, Kharkiv. Holland have it all to do as they need to beat Portugal by two clear goals plus rely on Germany to beat Denmark to qualify whilst Portugal have a must simpler equation of just needing to better the Danes' result to progress.

Holland are having a awful tournament so far with two defeats from two & need a dramatic upturn in performance levels to make the last eight. There seems to be discontent in the ranks highlighted by Arjen Robbens display of petulance when subbed against Denmark & they will all need to be pulling in the same direction to save their tournament. Coach Bert Van Marwijk will go with a more attacking line-up & shape for this one with the likelihood of Rafael van der Vaart & Klaas-jan Huntelaar coming in for Mark van Bommel & Ibrahim Afellay as he looks for goals. The concern though is that they are weakening their midfield defensive shield to an already fragile defence highlighted by Jetro Willems struggles as they can ill afford to concede.

A 87th minute winner from Silvestre Varela saved Portugal from elimination & puts them in the box sit to grab a qualifying spot over Denmark & Holland. They showed good character to come back after letting a two goal lead slip against Denmark & put themselves in this position. A disappointment to them & the footballing public is the below par performances of Cristiano Ronaldo but you would be a very foolish person to write him off. Portugal are likely to be under the cosh in the first 20 minutes as Holland look to get off to a flyer so they will need to tighten up defensively after giving away two sloppy goals, from their point of view, against Denmark & centre back duo Pepe & Bruno Alves will need to keep a close eye on Robin van Persie who found the net with a great strike in his last match.

With both sides better in the oppositions half than their own; goals look the order of the day and the 4/5 available on over 2.5 goals looks massive.
Selections:

Germany to beat Denmark at 8/13 (General)
Over 2.5 goals in the Holland/Portugal match at 4/5 (BlueSquare/Betfair)

The above double pays just under 2/1.

Euro 2012 Fixtures - Saturday 16th June

We're into the final round of Group games now & only two teams are out of the competition so far meaning that we're going to be seeing some great games as teams fight tooth & nail for their quarter final spots. We're still searching the markets for the best value bets in each game & we bring you Group A today where hosts Poland look to not fall at the first hurdle & dark horses Russia try to top the group.

(Vaclav Pilar has two goals in two games with the Czech Republic)

7:45 pm - Czech Republic vs Poland

Czech Republic battle it out with co-hosts Poland at the Municipal Stadium, Wroclaw with the winner making the knock out rounds. Poland have two points & only victory will do for them whilst the Czechs need a win to quality but a draw might also be enough if results go their way.

After being torn apart by Russia in their first game the Czechs bounced back against Greece to claim all three points with a 2-1 victory. The damage was done in the first six minutes with goals from Petr Jiracek & Vaclac Pilar. Pilar is having an excellent tournament, scoring two goals, and is providing the sides attacking edge with striker Milan Baros struggling. A concern though is captain & playmaker Tomas Rosicky, substituted at half time against Greece, is a doubt with an achilles injury & a decision will be left right until before kick-off.

Poland have drawn their first two game 1-1 & their performances have be decent in the first half vs Greece & a second half against Russia which resulted in an equaliser but as yet they haven't been able to put it together for whole 90 minutes. They have a number of injury concerns to Lucasz Piszczek, Dariusz Dudka & Eugen Polanski & coach Franciszek Smuda has a decision to make in goal with Wojciech Szczesny returning from suspension but understudy Przemyslaw Tyton hasn't put a foot wrong in his game & a half.

Both sides will be focusing on victory & with their strengths lying in the attacking third rather than defensive disciplines this should lead to an entertaining game. Attacking players Jakub Blaszczykowski & Robert Lewandowksi for Poland & Czechs Jiracek & Pilar have all found the net already & will be licking their lips at the prospect of this game & 4/5 on both teams to score which has occurred in all Group A game looks nailed on. The first half is likely to be cagey & full of tension so get on the 6/5 on offer for most goals in the second half with one team likely to be getting desperate as their tournament hopes fade.

(Russia's attacking trio will be looking to seal top spot in Group A)

7:45 pm - Greece vs Russia

The other game in Group A is a battle between the top & bottom sides as Russia entertain Greece at the National Stadium, Warsaw. The requirement for Greece is simple; only a win will do & Russia will be looking for maximum points to guarantee top spot.

Russia will be disappointed with their second half performance against Poland where they let a goal lead slip. It was obviously two points dropped than a point gained but yet again youngster Alan Dzagoev enhanced his growing reputation with his third goal of the tournament. Dick Advocaat has a fully fit side to pick from & we would expect him to resist calls in some quarters to start Roman Pavlyuchenko over Alexander Kerzhakov. Kerzhakov has been misfiring in-front of goal but his link-up & positional play has been excellent so eventually he & the Russian side will reap the rewards & we see Pavlyuchenko as an impact substitute.

Greece again have to shuffle the pack with an injury to keeper Kostas Chalkias & the returning from suspension of Sokratis Papastathopoulos meaning Giannis Maniatis will return to the midfield at the expense of the ineffective Giorgos Fotakis. Despite their strong defensive record in qualifying; Greece have defended poorly in both games & now they have the daunting prospect of facing the excellent trio of Arshavin, Kerzhakov & tournament joint top scorer Alan Dzagoev. At the other end of the pitch they have looked far from free-scoring & only a howler from keeper Petr Cech for the Czech Republic allowed them to find the net in game two & with this is mind Russia -1 on the handicap at 21/10 looks a reasonable bet.

Selections:
Both teams to score between Poland & Czech Republic at 4/5 (Betfred/Stan James)
Most goals in the second half of Poland/Czech Republic at 6/5 (Coral)
Russia -1 on the handicap vs Greece at 21/10 (Betfred)