Toon and Town to trounce rivals

This weekend sees the 2nd round of the FA Cup with 40 lower league teams doing battle & dreaming of that lucrative away day at Old Trafford or City of Manchester Stadium in the next round as well as Barclays Premier League. As usual we've searched through the weekend card & found two cracking bets.

(Petr Cech's decline & Terry's problems are playing a big part in Chelsea's disappointing season)

We have to admit that here in the Like Buying Money offices we've been as big doubters as anyone with regards to Newcastle United but it seems that they are at least halfway to being the real deal & a genuine top half side only having lost once in the league to table toppers Man City, they take on Chelsea at home in the early Saturday kickoff & shouldn't be underestimated. A lot of talk has been about Newcastle's midfield engine & Cheick Tiote & Yohan Cabaye being particularly impressive in both quality & work rate but we think the defence deserve particular credit - many a good side is built from the solid foundations at the back. Tim Krul has been outstanding ever since gaining the first team spot between the posts, Ryan Taylor has adapted to his new role at left back extraordinarily well, captain Fabricio Coloccini is a rock at the centre & is getting the best out of Steven Taylor whilst Danny Simpson should be getting a look in at an England spot if he carries on his form at right back, he's certainly a better defender than Glen Johnson. Of course up front the Geordies have got Demba Ba who's been a real success for both them & West Ham since coming to England, overall the team really look on the up but will need to improve the strength of their squad if wanting to consolidate & improve.

Chelsea meanwhile appear to be in turmoil, having lost 4 league games already including 3 of their last 5, their ageing players all seem to be hitting the wall at the same time, although Lampard still seems to have his touch when it comes to shooting, & John Terry's problems are rife on & off the field. Any lingering claims that Petr Cech remains a world class goalkeeper should also be dismissed, he hasn't been near his previous level in 3 seasons & should be one of the first names out of the door when the inevitable reshuffle comes. Villas-Boas may have taken this post just a little too soon in his career, the Chelsea team doesn't appear to be the easiest of assignments with many strong personalities, if results don't improve, & soon, he will surely be shown the door. The bookies look to be fearing a Chelsea fight back after being knocked out of the league cup at home but they're surely too short a price to win this one & the 2-1 for Newcastle to win draw no bet market looks great value especially as the home side are as short as 9/4 in places just to win the game without that extra insurance.

In the FA Cup 2nd Round, Luton Town host Cheltenham Town at Kenilworth Road. Both sides beat opposition from a higher league tier in the 1st round with the Hatters beating struggling Northampton 1-0 & Cheltenham also winning 1-0 away at Tranmere. Luton sit 6th in the Conference Premier & boss Gary Brabin has pleaded for the fans backing this week as the home faithful have been venting their disappointment & frustration with recent performances which has seen them win only one of their last four league outings. Their home form in their last six league games has seen two wins, one draw & three defeats. Visitors Cheltenham are the last automatic promotion spot in League Two & are flying currently with five wins in their last six league games & have kept three clean sheets. On the road this season they have won six out of their ten games & their 3-1 away win at Oxford last weekend meant seven away wins in a row in all competitions. Despite their form the bookmakers have them as outsiders for the match at the best price of 15/8 with Victor Chandler. So take advantage of this generous price & back Cheltenham to be too strong with Scottish striker Darryl Duffy looking to build on four goals in his last six games against Luton.

Selections:

Newcastle United to beat Chelsea in the draw no bet market at 2/1 (Stan James)
Cheltenham Town to beat Luton at 15/8 (Victor Chandler)

Thursday Night NFL - Big birds to cancel each other out

Week 13 in the NFL begins this Thursday with a battle between two teams with identical records of 4 wins & 7 losses, both won their respective divisions last year but it now seems virtually impossible either the Philadelphia Eagles or hosts the Seattle Seahawks will make the playoffs this year. Both sides will want to finish the season strongly though to prove they can be contenders next year in order to attract playing talent, the Seahawks can point to having a transitional year after losing 10 year quarterback Matt Hasselbeck & the Eagles look to have many talented individuals but haven't been able to operate well enough, especially on defense, as a team - that could spell trouble for the league's longest serving head coach Andy Reid.

(The Seahawks Tavaris Jackson - he's not very good)

This game looks a really tough one to call as there are so many factors that seem to balance themselves out starting off with where the game is played, Qwest (or now CenturyLink) Field is a tough place to come for opposing teams with a raucous atmosphere whilst opposing offenses are on the field leading to missed snaps & penalties but the Eagles have been struggling at home (1 win, 5 losses) with the crowd getting on their back & might just need this away trip. That atmosphere could play a part with the Eagles having to stay with backup quarterback Vince Young, with noise like this it helps if an offense knows each other very well & although Young has played a decent amount in the side this isn't like a veteran quarterback with a set of offensive linemne that have been together for years - they'll find it difficult to go to a silent count.

On offense the Eagles are great at running the ball, leading the league with 5.6 yards per carry but the Seahawks have been great at stopping the run being only behind the Ravens in yards allowed per run with 3.8, they've played some hot rushing sides in the Rams, Ravens & 49ers so that looks a pretty true stat. The Seahawks meanwhile aren't very good at running or passing with the ball ranking 27th & 25th respectively in yards gained in either offensive aspect. The Eagles haven't been great defensively, their overall yardage given up is respectable but it has to be taken into account that they take a lot of time off of the clock by using their potent running game often, they're giving up 4.3 yards a rush & 7.7 yards a catch so are very ordinary.

(LeSean McCoy has 13 touchdowns already this year for the Eagles)

Looking at the individuals who could win this for their team Philadelphia's running back LeSean McCoy stands out with 1,050 rushing yards already & touchdowns in 10 of their 11 games, he will almost certainly be used in plenty of plays in this one especially without the first choice QB Michael Vick playing, odds of 4/9 to score a touchdown at anytime are great value - if his current form carried on he should be 1/10. The Seahawks have basically a poor quarterback in Tavaris Jackson & so will use their running game as well, Marshawn Lynch has 706 yards on the ground but hasn't been averaging too far with each attempt at just 3.9 yards compared to McCoys 5.6 yards. The Seahawks look to have found a good young receiver in rookie Doug Baldwin who's been a potent deep threat & has as many receiving touchdowns as anyone on the team with just two. Defensively the Eagles look to have players who could make big plays but haven't been doing it this year & the Seattle defense looks solid enough but definitely not spectacular. With both sides likely to run the ball a lot in this one it looks like a lot of time could be coming off the clock with each possession & that points to a low scoring game, the total points are set at 43.5 & betting under that total looks the sensible option.

Selections:
Under 43.5 points in the Philadelphia Eagles v Seattle Seahawks game at 10/11 (various)
LeSean McCoy to score a touchdown at anytime at 4/9 (Boylesports)

Reading between the lines, Posh will struggle

Plenty of midweek football for us to have a good look into and find the best bets this week, The Quarter Finals of the Carling Cup, The Championship, League One and the Europa League should keep us entertained. Our first pick comes from England's second tier, The Championship.

The 8 o'clock kick off in the Championship, sees Reading entertain Peterborough at the Madejski Stadium. Both sides currently sit in mid table on 24 points each as they both look to push towards the play-off places. The Royals have had a number of tough & tight affairs recently against Cardiff, Birmingham, Crystal Palace & Southampton where they have picked up 5 points & only one defeat to high flying Cardiff. This weekend they had a remarkable victory over Ipswich when they entered stoppage time trailing 2-1 but two goals in three minutes from Alex Pearce & Noel Hunt meant they left with the points. Visitors Peterborough have struggled on the road since their return to the Championship with five defeats in their nine games & conceding 16 goals in the process. Their current form has seen them only manage one victory in their last six games at home to a Derby side who are dropping like a stone at the moment. We expect Reading riding high from their weekend come back to be too strong for poor travellers Peterborough at the best price of 4/5 with Skybet & Stan James.

Despite thier awful showing in the Premier League this season the 94/95 champions Blackburn Rovers find themselves visiting the Capital of Wales trying to secure a place in the semi finals of the Carling Cup, Cardiff City are the hosts.

Malky Mackay's Bluebirds were fancied by few this season following departures of big name players during the summer however the remaining players and the players the Scot has brought into the squad seem to have clicked almost instantly. Cardiff find themselves third in the table and on a good run of form, they last lost in mid October and more impressively have only been defeated at the Cardiff City Stadium once, to then in form Brighton. Mackay has respected the competition in each of the previous rounds selecting a strong side that has seen off Oxford, Huddersfield, Leicester and Burnley to reach this stage. Steve Kean's Blackburn's woes have been well documented with plenty of Ewood Park fans venting thier views as to the future of the aforementioned Kean. Rovers are without a league victory since they put 4 past Arsenal in September, they'll be looking to return to Lancashire with victory to boost their confidence ahead of a run of Premier League games in which they can pick up points against Swansea, Sunderland, West Brom and Bolton. The good news for the Rovers faithful is that their performances of late have improved and they are scoring more goals (11 in 5), Cardiff too are a side capable of scoring goals, most notably the in-form Peter Whittingham. We fancy over 2.5 goals in this one, best priced at 10/11 with William Hill.

Selections:

Reading to beat Peterborough at 4/5 (Skybet & Stan James)

Over 2.5 goals in the Cardiff vs Blackburn game at 10/11 (William Hill)

Monday Night Football - Charlton to tighten grip at top of League One

There's no Premier League football this Monday but there's the usual NFL game plus a great game in prospect between two of the leading lights in League One, we're looking at both games for any edge that can be found in the markets & selecting our best bets. Get involved by leaving comments or by following our Twitter feed @likebuyingmoney - we're often on & happy to discuss betting & sports in general & field any questions.

 (League One top scorer Bradley Wright-Phillips can score for Charlton against Huddersfield)

League leaders (& our 9/1 pre-season tip!) Charlton Athletic take on 3rd placed Huddersfield Town at The Valley, even at this relatively early stage of the season this is a huge game as with a win Charlton can pull 7 points clear of the pack. Huddersfield meanwhile are unbeaten in the league through 18 games & have the exceptional 21 year old Jordan Rhodes leading their attack with 13 league goals - ranking 2nd only to Charlton's pocket sized star Bradley Wright-Phillips. Both sides are excellent defensively as well, Charlton have conceded 14 & Huddersfield 15, they retain the ball well, especially Charlton who have rallied after their first loss of the season to Stevenage with 5 straight wins. Clearly both of these sides are good but we like the midfield of Charlton with Scott Wagstaff, Danny Hollands, Dale Stephens & ex-Spurs player Johnnie Jackson combining to control games, they have exceptional quality in terms of control & accuracy of passing & can blunt Huddersfield's forward threat by not letting them have the ball. Unfortunately Stephens & Jackson have injuries but Charlton have drafted in Hogan Ephraim from QPR & Darel Russell from Preston to provide cover & competition for places. We wouldn't be surprised to see Charlton start with 5 in midfield & just Wright-Phillips up front by himself & he can take advantage by scoring first at odds of 5/1. We like Charlton but they shouldn't be able to run over Huddersfield like other teams & could nick this with a single goal, they are as short as 6/1 to win 1-0 with some firms but we'll take the 9/1 on offer at Ladbrokes.

(The New Orleans Saints offense can keep firing against the New York Giants)

In Monday's NFL game the New Orleans Saints host fellow NFC side the New York Giants in a game that is key for both sides with the Saints needing to stay ahead of Atlanta & the Giants trying to keep pace with the Dallas Cowboys. The Saints have lost only 3 times this year & are unbeaten at home & their passing game is just about the best around, the teams who have had success have tended to run the ball well meaning they've controlled possession but the Giants trail the league in yards per carry at just 3.2. The Giants offensive line hasn't played that great, letting Eli Manning be sacked 19 times already & not getting enough of a push for the running game, it means they'll struggle to keep up with the high powered Saints offense. The Saints lead the league in offensive yards per game & will fancy themselves to put up some numbers against the Giants ordinary defense, Brees will be looking to find tight end Jimmy Graham in the end zone as usual & their running game is pretty good too with Mark Ingram, Darren Sproles & Pierre Thomas covering all types of situations. This could be a high scoring affair but we see most of the points being scored by the New Orleans Saints & they can cover the -7 point handicap to win this one & leave the Giants in crisis with their 3rd loss in a row & having to face the Packers next week.

Selections:
Charlton Athletic to beat Huddersfield Town 1-0 at 9/1 (Ladbrokes)
Bradley Wright-Phillips to score 1st at 6/1 (Victor Chandler)
New Orleans Saints to beat New York Giants with -7 points on the handicap at 20/21 (Sportingbet & Stan James)

NFL Week 12 - Falcons to swoop on Vikings

We're really on the run in to the playoffs now with half of the divisions still wide open whilst four top place spots are either in or virtually in the bag, there are also the wild card playoff places to fight for & it means that virtually every game has a bearing on the championship picture. As always we're looking for the best value available in the week's games, we look at a wide range of markets to see where the bookmakers have got it wrong allowing us & you to exploit to make a tidy profit.

 (Evergreen Tony Gonzalez can celebrate another touchdown for Atlanta on their way to a clear victory over Minnesota)

The Atlanta Falcons are in a battle with New Orleans to secure 1st place in the NFC South & will be wanting to press their claims when they host the Minnesota Vikings who are floundering in the tough NFC North with just two wins all season & that was against poor sides in Arizona & Carolina. At the Georgia Dome the Falcons are a pretty scary team to face, they have lost twice at home this year but that was hosting Green Bay & New Orleans, they've only conceded over 20 points in one of their last five games after some slightly suspect defensive displays early on in the season, that improvement spells trouble for a Vikings side that rank 23rd in points scored. The Vikings will do well to get anything going offensively as their star player running back Adrian Peterson looks to be doubtful for the game & their passing game only ranks 28th in yards gained. Defensively Minnesota are very average & they don't tend to create many turnover opportunities, the Falcons have a great balanced offense & will look to take advantage with Michael Turner in the running game & by passing to Roddy White & Tony Gonzalez. Tight end Gonzalez is now 35 but is playing outstanding football as he has been since 1997, he's Matt Ryan's favourite target in the end zone & the Vikings give up more passing than rushing touchdowns, with 7 touchdowns already Gonzalez looks ace value to score the 1st touchdown at 7/1. With Peterson out it really is difficult to see how Minnesota can hurt the home side & Atlanta can cover the -8.5 point handicap on offer at Boylesports with ease.

For our second bet we're going to keep things exceedingly simple, the St. Louis Rams have scored a league worst 12 points per game & opponents the Arizona Cardinals just 19 a game (24th best), neither side is too bad defensively & this looks sure to be a very low scoring game, the under 39.5 total points should be taken at odds of 10/11. The sides met in week 9 & there were 32 points total, that included overtime & there's no reason to suggest it will be different here, since then the Cardinals have been in games with 38 & 30 points & St. Louis in games with 25 & 31, neither side have a chance of getting to the playoffs & this could & hopefully will be a very dull affair.

(Top rookie Ben Tate can sprint into the end zone for the Texans against the Jaguars)

Our Super Bowl fancies the Houston Texans suffered dreadful news after their big win at Tampa Bay with quarterback Matt Schaub ruled out for the season with a foot injury that needs to be operated on. Fortunately the Texans running game has been excellent, unsurprising as they have a total star in Arian Foster & he has been backed up by rookie Ben Tate who has had a very good first season, scoring 3 touchdowns already with two of those coming in the last two games. The Texans have great receivers especially with Andre Johnson coming back to fitness but with backup quarterback Matt Leinart now playing they will want to keep things simple & take the pressure off him by running the ball more, that should mean that Tate is even more involved & Ladbrokes offer a standout 14/1 for Tate to score the 1st touchdown plus 21/10 that he scores at anytime.

Selections:
Atlanta Falcons to beat Minnesota Vikings with -8.5 points (Boylesports)
Tony Gonzalez to score 1st Touchdown at 7/1 (various) in Minnesota Vikings v Atlanta Falcons game
Arizona Cardinals v St. Louis Rams to be under 39.5 points at 10/11 (General)
Ben Tate to score 1st Touchdown at 14/1 & to score at anytime at 21/10 (Ladbrokes) in Houston Texans v Jacksonville Jaguars game

Don't call my name, just score a goal - Alejandro

We stuck to the lower leagues as is usually our preference & turned up 2 out of 2 winners plus advising the double on them that paid over 3/1, we're sticking with looking at two games but we are having a look at the Premier League as well this time with the game between two of the promoted sides in Norwich & QPR. Hopefully we can follow up last weekend with another good one so that our readers will want to tell their friends about us! You can follow us on Twitter @likebuyingmoney where we chat about loads of sports & other things - join in!

(Classy operator Alejandro Faurlin can get a goal at big odds for QPR)

In the Premiership, two promoted sides face each other at Carrow Road this weekend as Norwich City host Queens Park Rangers. Both sides will feel that three points are there for the taking as they look to build on their mid table positions & gain vital points over one another. Norwich home form has seen two wins, two draws & two defeats whilst QPR's away form has seen them win three but also suffer three defeats therefore picking the winner seems difficult. What we are expecting though is an attacking end to end encounter as Norwich haven't kept a clean sheet in 13 games & QPR have conceded 22 in their 12 league games so attack seems the best form of defence for both these sides.

Both sides have strikers in Steve Morison (Norwich) & Heidar Helguson (QPR) bang in form currently. Morison a summer signing from Millwall has scored in three successive Premier League games & is joint top goalscorer with midfielder Anthony Pilkington with four in total. Then adding the evergreen Grant Holt & attacking maestro Wes Hoolahan into the mix you have a decent attacking quartet. Opponents QPR added Shaun Wright-Phillips & Joey Barton late in the transfer window to boaster their attacking flair & with hugely influential Argentinean Alejandro Faurlin they have being creating plenty of chances lately with veteran Heidar Helguson taking advantage with five goals in his last five appearances. We really like Faurlin & fancy him to grab a goal at anytime in this one at big odds of 9/1, he's as short as 100/30 with some bookmakers so take that big price. Norwich's six home games have had a total of 19 goals with four of these games finishing with over 2.5 goals & QPR nearly have a mirror image record but with two additional goals in their six away games. Therefore we expect goals, goals & more goals so take advantage of the general 4/5 available for over 2.5 goals in the game.

 (Stevenage keeper Chris Day can help keep a poor Walsall side at bay in a victory for the home side)

Down in League One, Stevenage entertain struggling Walsall at Broadhall Way, Stevenage sit one point & one position outside of the play-off places whilst visitors Walsall languishing in the final relegation spot. Stevenage are in good current form in the league with four wins & two draws including four clean sheets in their last six matches and also a 1-0 away victory in the 1st round of the FA Cup against Hartlepool. Stevenage have strengthened their squad this week with the loan signing of Arsenal youngster Chuks Aneke & they will hope he can continue his fine goalscorer form - he has 6 goals in seven starts for Arsenal Reserves. Walsall had to endure extra time in their FA cup replay on Wednesday night & their league form is poor with only one win, one draw & four defeats against Bury, MK Dons, Exeter & Tranmere in their last six games. Their away form this season has seen only one victory against Bournemouth back in August & have already had four defeats in their eight games. We fully expect Stevenage to be too strong for Walsall at home & push themselves into the play-off places at a best price of 4/6.

Selections:

Over 2.5 goals in the Norwich City vs Queens Park Rangers match (General)

Stevenage to beat Walsall at 4/6 (Betfred & Blue Square)

The double on the above picks pay 2/1
Alejandro Faurlin to score at anytime at 9/1 (Paddy Power) Norwich v QPR

@likebuyingmoney Twitter followers’ tips week 4

After week 2 our followers were £1.70 in profit following some decent picks, could they keep it up in week 3? Here's a reminder of what was tipped up last week and a roundup of the results:

Follower	Selection	Result
@Bet_Hunter	Atlanta Falcons -6 to beat Titans. Falcons awesome at home and coming off loss, Titans off a win therefore overrated #NFL	Second week in a row you’ve picked bang on the handicap spread VOID
@gray67lufc	3 aways Bournemouth @ 6/4 Leeds @ 15/8 and Blackburn @ 2/1 (and if a 4th is needed Exeter @ 2/1) all away.	Away wins for Bournemouth & Leeds whilst Blackburn & Exeter could only muster high scoring draws 2 WINNERS & 2 LOSERS
@profitbet	Bolton DNB 2.9 on betfair away at WBA, Bolton on back of 5-0 win, WBA without odemwingie and Shane long	Shane Long pops up with the winning goal after his late surprising inclusion LOSER
@GHorsfall	League Two’s most prolific home attack hosts its most porous away defence, Torquay -1 at home to Plymouth	A comfortable 3-1 home win for Torquay gives us a winner at 13/8 WINNER
@Jugador1984	Cardiff + reading to draw	Another three points for the Bluebirds on the road after a 2-1 victory LOSER

After week three the running profit stands at £3.71 (also includes an additional £1 from a void bet in week two – tie on the NFL handicap market), from £1 stakes.

Detailed below are the selections for the weekend of the 26^th / 27^th November:

@allywhyte1 is liking the raiders at -4, no jay cutler for bears and raiders have won two in a row. The Raiders are the best price of 1/2 to win outright & the best price of 19/20 with Victor Chandler to cover the -4 spread.

@Ricabii a Man Utd fan tips Over 3.5 goals between Newcastle United and Man United and Arsenal/Arsenal ht/ft double for nearly 5/1. Arsenal should easily see off poor travellers Fulham so can the two United’s produce a goals galore classic?

@diggerd84 a part-time swans fan reckons villa to bounce back vs swans. Swans always vulnerable when getting plaudits. After a shocking perform on MNF against Spurs, Villa are best price of 12/5 to get back to winning ways.

@Jugador1984 our regular tipster goes welsh again with #bestbet super witts to make it 5 in 5, anytime goalscorer. Peter Whittingham is the best price of 13/5 with Paddy Power to score at home to Nottingham Forest this weekend.

@Matt_Hutson fancies a Leicester & Tranmere double. With Leicester away to Portsmouth & Tranmere travelling down to Exeter the double pays just under 6/1.

@Douglie9 is going with Robin van Persie anytime goalscorer vs Fulham. The man is on fire currently & is as short as 1/2 with Victor Chandler but you can still get 8/11 at Coral if you hurry!

@Bet_Hunter stick with what he knows best my weekend bet is Hawaii -16 to bt Tulane in college football. Hawaii in a point shaving scandal will want to score big! We can only find odds for Hawaii -16.5 on the spread at the general price of 10/11.

@MrMatthewReid tips over 3.5 goals in Leeds v Barnsley. I fancy a goal-fest A Yorkshire derby which has produced 30 goals in their last six league meetings...2/1 for over 3.5 goals still available at William Hill.

@gray67lufc has three fancies of Middlesborough @7/4 Leicester @7/5 also Swansea @5/4...singles...doubles...and 1 treble. A £1 Patent (£7 stake) would give you a healthy £33 profit.

Thanks again to all those who submitted their suggestions (our biggest turn out yet!), we'll round up the results at the beginning of next week’s post.

To enter next week please send a tweet and include #likebuyingmoney with your best bet.

Lions can celebrate Thanksgiving by feasting on Packers defense

It's Thanksgiving in the States & that means that we have three NFL games this Thursday to start week 12 that has every team in action now they've all had their bye weeks. The Thursday night games look pretty tasty with the league leading Green Bay Packers & San Francisco 49ers both in action hoping to keep up the pace in the NFC. We had 4 out of 5 winning bets on Sunday including Marion Barber to score the first touchdown in the Bears game at odds of 10/1, we're looking to keep pounding the bookmakers with our best bets here.

 (Awesome Aaron Rodgers may meet his match against the Detroit Lions pass rush)

There's no doubt about it, the Green Bay Packers are the most exciting team in football right now having gone unbeaten through the first 10 games & having posted 42 points more than any other team, they also rank 3rd worst in terms of yards given up on defense per game meaning there've been plenty of high scoring encounters, they now take on the 7&3 Detroit Lions who rank 3rd in total points (54 behind Green Bay) & that porous defense could lead to their first loss here. The Lions have been attempting over 40 passes a game & Matt Stafford has thrown 20 touchdowns to 8 inreceptions, he has the league's best receiver to throw to in Calvin Johnson & he will want to take advantage of the Packers who've conceded 18 passing touchdowns, at 7/1 he looks a nice price to get the first touchdown. The Packers defense is certainly explosive as they lead the league with 19 interceptions but that is partly due to teams having to throw hopeful passes against them when trailing & they've let 46 passing plays of 20+ yards - it all points to a big day for Stafford & Johnson.

The Lions have been pretty solid defensively ranking 9th best in yards allowed plus have been able to make plenty of plays with 15 interceptions, 27 sacks & 9 forced fumbles (recovering 8 of those 9), they will need to be on top form against the Packers Aaron Rodgers because he's been exceptional all season with an insanely high passer rating of 130.7 (the NFL record season sits at 121.1). Fortunately their strength is against the pass, ranking 5th in yards allowed, they have the ability to get pressure on any quarterback which is key to having a chance at stopping Rodgers & Cliff Avril, Kyle Vanden Bosch & Ndamukong Suh will all be hunting him down in this one. In the Lions secondary cornerback Chris Houston has stepped his game up with 4 picks this year & has returned two for touchdowns, Rodgers may have thrown just 3 interceptions in the 10 games so far but he'll be made to hurry more in this game & if he gets too ambitious the Lions will be waiting to pounce. It's fair that the Packers are favourites for this one but their odds seem a little skinny as they are away in one of the loudest venues in the league & that will make it dificult to execute plays & the Lions can get to the quarterback, Rodgers has been sacked 23 times already, at odds of 5/2 the Detroit Lions are the value pick to end the Packers unbeaten run.

(The San Francisco 49ers defense plus Frank Gore's running game can punish the Ravens)

The San Francisco 49ers travel to face the Baltimore Ravens who have won all of their home games so far but may not keep that going in this one against San Francisco who are 9&1 on the year. Other than having played the Steelers & Texans, Baltimore seem to have had one of the softest schedules available, ok they beat Pittsburgh twice which is very impressive but those big rivalry games can be more passion than great football & they've lost to very ordinary (at best) teams in Seattle, Tennessee & Jacksonville. We'vbe mentioned before that we're not Joe Flacco fans & that hasn't changed, he'll struggle against a top defense that only rank averagely in passing yards given up because teams abandon the run against them. That's a problem for the Ravens as when Flacco has one of his regular trash games they can normally go to the hugely reliable & basically excellent running back Ray Rice but here against the 49ers huge, dominant run defense that isn't desirable. On the 49ers offense quarterback Alex Smith has been a model of efficiency with 64% completion & just 3 interceptions, his favourite target Vernon Davis has 5 touchdowns already & Michael Crabtree has performed well too but their real strength is running the ball & Frank Gore can again prove difficult to stop, he's already had 870 rushing yards & is a real bull of a player. This is a game between two very good defenses & bearing that in mind it looks sensible to take the 49ers receiving +3.5 points on the handicap in a tight one where field goals could be important.

Selections:
Detroit Lions to beat Green Bay Packers at 5/2 (Ladbrokes)
Calvin Johnson to score 1st Touchdown at 7/1 in Detroit Lions v Green Bay Packers game (Boylesports & William Hill)
San Francisco 49ers to beat Baltimore Ravens with +3.5 points on the handicap at 5/6 (various)

Arsenal set to dominate Dortmund at the Emirates

Wednesday night sees the Group F encounter between Arsenal and Borussia Dortmund at the Emirates Stadium, Arsenal currently sit top of the group on 8 points & a victory will qualify them for a last 16 spot whilst Dortmund are in 3rd & 3 points behind 2nd place side Marseille. In game week one the reverse fixture ended 1-1 after a late stunning strike by Ivan Perisic to gave the German side a late point.

After a poor start to the season, the Gunners have won 10 & only lost once (to fierce rivals Spurs) in their last 12 games in all competitions, their home record has been good & has seen them win their last five Premier League games scoring 12 goals & in the Champions League they have drawn 0-0 with Marseille & beat Olympiakos 2-1. Star player Robin Van Persie has been in sparkling form this season & has 15 goals in 17 games in all competitions & comes into the game on the back of a brace away at Norwich.

(RVP, Wenger's main man)

Visitors Dortmund are 2nd in the Bundesliga currently & had a cracking 1-0 away victory over current leaders Bayern Munich over the weekend. But their away from this season has been mixed in the league with a record of 3 wins, 2 draws & 2 defeats. And in the Champions league they have suffered two heavy defeats, 3-1 against Olympiakos & 3-0 in France vs Marseille. The away day blues can continue for the German side as Arsenal, with form player Robin Van Persie, will prove too strong for them at a best price of evens with Bet365.

Celtic take on Dunfermline north of the border in the SPL, Celtic still some 10 points behind rivals Rangers have been playing much better of late and come into the game on an 8 match unbeaten run in all competitions. Wednesday's opponents The Pars from Fife lie third from bottom in the league and rock bottom of the form league table.

Neil Lennon is likely to stick with the same XI that overcame Inverness Caley Thistle on the weekend and Jim McIntyre's injury woes continue as the likes of Steven Bell, Craig Easton and Austin McCann are unavailable for Dunfermline, they are boosted by the news that midfielder Gary Mason has served his suspension and can be included in tomorrow's squad. In recent history Celtic have a very good record against Dunfermline, last time out they were the 4-2 victors. The best price for a Celtic triumph at Parkhead is a slim 1/5 (Stan James). We think there is value in some of the other markets though, both teams' form and recent goal scoring records suggest there will be goals - and very much in the Glasgow giants favour. We suggest backing Celtic -1 on the handicap at 1/2.

Selections:
Arsenal to beat Dortmund at evens (Bet365)
Celtic -1 to beat Dunfermline at 1/2 (various)
A double on our two selections pays a healthy 2/1

Monday Night Football - Villa can limit Spurs at White Hart Lane

Monday Night Football's here & we've got Premier League football with Tottenham Hotspur hosting Aston Villa & NFL action as the Kansas City Chiefs face the New England Patriots in Foxborough, we've scoured the markets for the best bets available.

(Quality left back Stephen Warnock can help keep Tottenham's attackers in check)

Tottenham have been having a great season so far, only dropping points in the league once (drawing against the freakish performing Newcastle) since their losses against both Manchester teams in their first two games, they will want to win here to keep up their push for a Champions League spot. Aston Villa haven't done at all badly either, although expectations & aspirations are lower, they've also lost just the twice - again to the juggernaut that is Man City & local rivals West Brom. Villa's problem has been too many draws with 6 in the campaign including 4 out of 5 in away games, Alex McLeish has really got his slight squad playing with a resolve that was lacking at times under Gerard Houllier's strange tenure last year. Spurs have been winning & playing nicely with Redknapp's decision to play a shadow squad in the Europa League matches looking smarter by the day, the international break came at just the wrong time & the hugely effective Rafael van der Vaart picked up yet another hamstring injury that puts him out of this one. Gareth Bale's starting to get his game going & is as dangerous a winger as anyone in the league, it's a pity that on the other wing the enigmatic & often ineffectual Aaron Lennon is playing, Villa's wing backs are one of the strong points of their team anyway with Warnock & Hutton, the Scot will be keen on having a good game against his former team. Therefore Spurs will look to the inventive Luka Modric to unlock the Villa defence, Villa will be prepared for that & will pack the midfield, even if they get the ball through to the strikers Jermaine Defoe hasn't always convinced & although Adebayor's all round game has been nice he hasn't scored since 18th September. We aren't keen on Villa scoring, although we're big Darren Bent fans, but they might be able to stop Spurs as well & we're going for no goalscorer at a huge 16/1 - that bet also has you covered if the only goals are own goals which is just as well with Richard Dunne on the pitch!

(Dwayne Bowe can score against the Patriots by outjumping their cornerbacks)

The New England Patriots got a deserved win for their attacking play against the Jets last Monday night & should prove way too strong for the Kansas City Chiefs here but the -15 point handicap is just a little big to be bet & we've instead looked at the touchdown scorers market. The Chiefs really haven't scored enough touchdowns this year but Dwayne Bowe dominates their scoring with a very average 4 TDs on the year he's available at 6/5 to score at any time  & has to be bet with the Patriots very poor secondary. For a first touchdown scorer we have to look at the Patriots, tight ends Aaron Hernandez & particularly Rob Gronkowski are big favourites for Tom Brady when aiming for the end zone but he'll want to get the ball to league leading receiver Wes Welker who was covered by Darrelle Revis last week & he can be bet at 7/1 to score the first touchdown & get a victory underway.

Selections:
No goalscorer at 16/1 (various) in the Tottenham Hotspur v Aston Villa game

Wes Welker to score 1st touchdown at 7/1 (Boylesports) in Kansas City Chiefs v New England Patriots game
Dwayne Bowe to score a touchdown at anytime at 6/5 (general)

NFL Week 11 - Rams can keep Charging

Week 11 in the NFL got underway with the Broncos upsetting the New York Jets on Thursday night meaning our bet with the Broncos getting +6 points was easily covered, the Packers smashed Minnesota to bring in the -13 point handicap bet on Monday & we had a 9/1 touchdown scorer last Sunday & we're feeling pretty confident we can find a few more winners in this week's games. As ever get in touch to let us know what you think either by leaving a comment or by following us on twitter @likebuyingmoney

(Steven Jackson can run the Rams to victory)

The St. Louis Rams did the business for us last weekend by seeing off the poor Cleveland Browns in a tight encounter with star receiver Brandon Lloyd getting the only touchdown, this week they face the marginally better Seattle Seahawks but the Rams can put another W on the board by winning this one. Seattle picked up a big upset win by triumphing against the Baltimore Ravens last weekend but the Ravens only consistency this year appears to have been their inconsistency & that was still only the Seahawks third win of the year & they tend to be a much stronger side at home. Seattle had quarterback Matt Hasselbeck leave for Tennessee in the summer & he's shown how good he is with some nice performances there, replacement Tavaris Jackson meanwhile has been horrible having thrown just 6 touchdowns & 9 interceptions, he's also been sacked 22 times showing he's not getting much help from his O-Line & tends to hold onto the ball a little too long. He has been unable to link up with fellow ex-Viking Sidney Rice as he would like to have & it's a big reason they rank a lowly 29th in the offensive yards per game category, they're also pretty lightweight on the ground with running back Marshawn Lynch averaging under 4 yards a carry, he's been much better in his last two games with a big 244 yards but that seemed to come from nowhere. They've said they want to run the ball against the Rams & they have been dreadful at defending the run but the Seahawks offense doesn't inspire confidence on any level having only scored over 20 points on 3 occasions this year.

The Rams gained just their second win of the year with that victory against Cleveland but they've been slowly improving & were very unfortunate to lose against Arizona in the previous week & they could easily have been looking at coming into this game after three straight wins. St.Louis have been plagued by injuries this year & it has really affected quarterback Sam Bradford's game having thrown just 4 TDs for the year & having got banged up & recently sat out a couplf of games, there's a slight doubt regarding Bradford's ankle this week but he took part in practoce & should play. Sam has also looked better in the last 3 games having completed over 60% of his passes although he's thrown a pick in each one also, he was sacked just once last week & if his young offensive line can do a good job again this week he could put up some reasonable yards. Clearly the Rams main offensive weapon is huge running back Steven Jackson who has run for 100+ yards in his last 3 games, he can run over Seattle's defense which relies on a team ethic rather than individual defensive stars. On balance with the Rams gradual improvement & Seattle being much better at home it looks like St.Louis can grind one out here & odds of 4/6 seem fair. The best other bet in this game is to back under total points of 39.5, in Seattle's last 4 games just one has gone over that total & just 2 in the last 6 for the Rams, neither side are good at putting points on the board & 5/6 for under 39.5 points with Victor Chandler is value.

(Brian Urlacher - he's big & scary & can help shut down the Chargers offense)

A team that are really starting to look good are the Chicago Bears who host the San Diego Chargers who are in a downward spiral having lost their last 4 after starting 4&1, the Chargers need to start turning their season around now but a trip up to the Great Lakes is not what the doctor ordered. The Bears had a tough start to the season facing off against the Falcons, Saints & Packers in their first 3 games, they won one of those & have lost just once since against the Lions when they were on top form & gained revenge against Detroit with a great display last week here at Soldier Field. Running back Matt Forte continues to be brilliant & he's leading the team in reception yards as well as rushing yards, the Bears use Forte on so many plays but try to keep him fit by using big Marion Barber on short yardage running situations & that helps stop Forte from getting too battered & bruised, they would have worries if he got injured but he's looking great now. Returner Devin Hester has broken all sorts of return records & will be licking his lips at the thought of facing the woeful San Diego special teams & could have a big game (as usual). Jay Cutler has been consistent at quarterback now that he's got the protection he needs & has answered a lot of the undue criticism he received at the end of last year, with just 6 interceptions thrown this year he won't give the Chargers defense much to work with. On defense the Bears have been great against the run ranking 2nd in yards allowed & that will put pressure on Philip Rivers to throw the ball, Rivers has been uncharacteristically poor this year having thrown 15 picks already. Rivers was just about considered an elite QB but this year has been disappointing at the least & if he goes to the air here he has to be wary of any short passes up the middle as the Bears have brilliant linebackers in Brian Urlacher & Lance Briggs. The Chargers do have weapons on offense with Floyd, Gates & Jackson all being great receivers & two very good runners in Tolbert & Mathews but with the running game likely to be limited & Rivers off-colour it doesn't look good for them here. The Bears can be backed giving away 3.5 points on the handicap but can cover it at odds of 10/11. In the touchdown scorer markets it seems that Marion Barber is still being underestimated & can be backed at 7/5 to score at anytime & 10/1 to score the 1st Touchdown of the game.

Selections:
St.Louis Rams to beat Seattle Seahawks at 4/6 (Boylesports)
Seattle Seahawks v St. Louis Rams game to be under 39.5 points at 10/11 (Victor Chandler)
Chicago Bears to beat San Diego Chargers with -3.5 at 10/11 (general)
Marion Barber to score 1st touchdown at 10/1 & at anytime at 7/5 (Paddy Power)

@likebuyingmoney Twitter followers tips - Week 3

After week 1 our followers were £5.00 down following some rather suspect picks, could they come back with a flourish in week 2? Here's a reminder of what was tipped up last week and a roundup of the results:

Follower	Selection	Result
@MrMatthewReid	Euro 2012 Play-off qualifiers 1st leg, all four game accumulators; either team not to score at 7/1 or under 2.5 goals at 9/2+.	Reidy comes up trumps in week two with a 7/1 winner, his second pick of under 2.5 goals accumulator was a loser but all four first legs had at least one team not scoring WINNER
@ShanePollard16 @jamespow	all your money on Spain England to be outclassed by technically superior footballers who will beat us in 2nd gear	‘Fat’ Frank Lampard’s 0 yard header meant both Shane and James were wrong  (we’re only counting this as one bet) LOSER
@Bet_Hunter	Alabama -17 to beat Mississippi State. Expect Bama to bounce back in a big way after their LSU loss	Jon-boy missed out again here, Alabama winning by 17....just one point shy. LOSER
@Jugador1984	I think Wales have a good chance against Norway, is it #4winsonthetrot.	Spot on, a winner at 21/10 WINNER
@gray67lufc	3 for the w/end. Scunthorpe at 13/10, Barnet at 6/4 and Rotherham at 11/10 all odds against.	We took these as singles, 2 from  3 at odds of 6/4 and 11/10 TWO WINNERS & ONE LOSER
@beazeley1973	Germany/Spain double. To add further value to Spain's price	No joy here as both sides failed to win LOSER
@sridout92	Scotland, Ireland and Ronaldo anytime scorer treble	So close with Scotland & Ireland winning (remember this was for the weekend fixtures – Ronaldo and Portugal drew a blank) LOSER

After week two the running profit stands at £1.70, from £1 stakes

Detailed below are the selections for the weekend of the 19^th/20^th November:

@Bet_Hunter looking to bounce back with Atlanta Falcons -6 to beat Titans. Falcons awesome at home and coming off loss, Titans off a win therefore overrated #NFL. Atlanta Falcons are the general price of 10/11 on the -6 handicap market currently but @Bet_Hunter doesn’t expect the price to last until Sunday so hurry!

@gray67lufc 3 aways Bournemouth @ 6/4 Leeds @ 15/8 and Blackburn @ 2/1 (and if a 4^th is needed Exeter @ 2/1 all away. For our purposes we’ll take the picks as singles but if you fancy the treble it pays just over 20/1 & the four-fold is a lovely 63/1.

@profitbet is back with Bolton DNB 2.9 on betfair away at WBA, Bolton on back of 5-0 win, WBA without odemwingie and Shane long. After a difficult start can Bolton now build on the 5-0 victory over Stoke and put a winning run together?

@GHorsfall the lower leagues expert picks League Two’s most prolific home attack hosts its most porous away defence, Torquay -1 at home to Plymouth at the best price of 13/8 with Paddy Power.

@Jugador1984 fancies Cardiff + reading to draw. Looks a safe selection as six of the last eight meetings in the league (including play-offs) have ended as draws - you even had Reading keeper Adam Federici scoring a 96^th minute equaliser back in 2008!

Thanks again to all those who submitted their suggestions, we'll round up the results at the beginning of next week's post.

To enter next week please send a tweet and include #likebuyingmoney with your best bet.

Latics & Shrimpers can bring up a double

Now that this week's excitement surrounding that lovely man Sepp Blatter has settled down, oh & there were some important qualifiers to a huge continental competition - not that you'd know with the minimal coverage in the insular UK - we can get back to real football & we're sticking to the lower league action for this week's bets. As ever we're keen for everybody's feedback so leave comments, follow us on Twitter @likebuyingmoney or shout at us in the street - beware we shout back.

In League One, mid table Oldham Athletic entertain struggling Chesterfield at Boundary Park. Oldham under the guidance of rookie manager Paul Dickov come into the match on the back of two straight 3-1 wins & only one defeat in their last six games in all competitions, that defeat came against Bury where they were down to ten men after only ten minutes. They have a mixture of youngster including recent loan arrivals Andreas Mancini & Luca Scapuzzi (from Man City) and experienced pro's in Zander Diamond, Nathan Clarke & leading goalscorer Shefki Kuqi (10 goals in 14 games) as the balance seems to be paying dividends recently. Visitors Chesterfield sit only one point above bottom place Yeovil & incurred further disappointment losing their home FA Cup match against League Two side Torquay 3-1. Chesterfield only have three victories in their 17 league games with their last victory back in September & on the road their record reads one win, one draw & six defeats with 18 goals conceded. We expect Oldham to build on their recent good form at the expense of Chesterfield at evens.

 (High flying Southend United can celebrate another victory with a win over Dagenham & Redbridge)

Down in League Two, table toppers Southend United visit Dagenham & Redbridge, back in October Southend came out victorious as the two sides met in the Johnstone's Paint Trophy at Victoria Road, winning 3-1. Southend are in fantastic form having won their last 4 league games & are unbeaten in their last 10. The whole side is brimming with confidence & the goals have been shared out between them with Ryan Hall, Liam Dickinson, Mark Phillips & Bilel Mohsni with five league goals each. Midfielder Ryan Hall is in red hot form with 4 goals in his last 5 games & in the league a straight three in three. Dag & Red are in free fall currently & are only outside the relegation places on goal difference. Last weekend FA Cup fixture gave them the opportunity to gain a value moral boasting victory against non-league Bath City but could only muster a 1-1 draw after going behind. Dagenham's league form has seen them lose their last six matches with 3 defeats in their last 3 home fixtures with losses to Shrewsbury, Aldershot & Plymouth having conceded 10 goals in the process. We can't see anything but an Southend victory at a best price of 10/11 as they look to stretch their lead over the rest of League Two.

Selections:
Oldham Athletic to beat Chesterfield at evens (Blue Square/Coral)
Southend United to beat Dagenham & Redbridge at 10/11 (Ladbrokes)
Double these to pay odds of just over 3/1

ATP Tour Finals - Murray can shine in O2 Arena

The gruelling mens tennis season comes to a climax with the ATP World Tour Finals in London contested by the top eight ranked players in the world & this year it looks like the top eight really are the players you'd pick as the best without looking at the rankings. Of course the 'big four' are here with world number one Novak Djokovic facing off against Rafael Nadal, Andy Murray & Roger Federer. The supporting cast isn't so bad either with the ultra fit David Ferrer, powerful & entertaining Jo-Wilfried Tsonga, hard-hitting all rounder Thomas Berdych & super server Mardy Fish from the United States. The set up of the tournament with the round robin group element before the semi finals means that players need to be fit & mentally tough as they may have to face an opponent who's already defeated them earlier in the tournament. We're looking at the chances of the contenders & picking who we think has the best chance at the odds available.

It's only right to start with Novak Djokovic who has had one of the greatest ever years of any tennis player with three grand slam victories & 64 victories & just 4 losses, it's particularly impressive as this is an era with huge depth in the men's game but it may be that he's feeling the effects of progressing so far in so many tournaments. He got knocked out of the Swiss Indoors at the start of the month by world number 183 Kei Nishikori & had to retire when facing Murray in the final of the Western & Southern Open in September. If Djokovic is fully fit & ready to go for this he could make the 9/2 available look very silly but we're not keen on taking the risk with the format going against him.

(Big serving Jo-Wilfried Tsonga can get through Group B at the O2 Arena)

Rafael Nadal is 4th favourite for the tournament & the world number two is a dominant force when on his game but he's only made the final of this season finale once, last year when he lost in 3 sets to Roger Federer, he's a general price of 5/1 but 6/1 can be found. The odds available for Nadal don't appeal, especially as Group B also contains old rival Federer & Jo-Wilfried Tsonga who recently met each other in the final of the Paris Masters showing them to be in good form. That was just the 2nd Masters Series final for Tsonga & although he lost to Federer he's an awkward opponent for anyone to face & the hard courts are definitely his favoured service, 10 of the 11 finals he's made over his career have been on hard courts & we can see him progressing through the group stage at Nadal's expense & odds of 16/1 for the win are certainly tempting but the best bet is for Tsonga to qualify through Group B at 11/8.

Roger Federer has fallen to 4th in the world rankings & there is a train of thought that he's on an inexorable slide but Federer himself will be aiming for more grand slam titles over the next few years & making a final, two semis & a quarter final this year in the majors isn't bad work. Federer's won year-end championships 5 times including last year here in London & it's easy to see why the bookmakers have made him favourite at a general price of 15/8 with Boylesports going a standout 21/10. We think that Federer should progress as winner of his group as he's shown he has the beating of Tsonga recently & on a hard court surface he has an edge over arch rival Nadal & he could go all the way to the final but may find the home boy Andy Murray spoiling his end of season celebrations.

(Andy Murray can pick up a big win in the end of season Championships before his Grand Slam push in 2012)

Andy Murray has consistently performed to a high level in 2011 reaching at least the semi finals in all 4 grand slams, cementing his place in the top 4 & with his win at the Shanghai Masters he moved up to number 3 past Federer. Murray will take great confidence from that win in China & it may be that this can be the tournament when he really gains the confidence needed to take into 2012 to make a real push for that elusive first grand slam win. Murray is another player who is best on hard courst as shown by his final appearances in the Australian Open & at Flushing Meadows, he's looking fit & has long moved on from the endurance problems he suffered from early in his career. Murray's fitness can help him have an edge over Djokovic in his group match, his counter-punching style means it won't be easy for Djokovic to hit the big winners he does against other players & if Murray beats him he'll expect to come out top in the group. If Murray comes wins Group A we'd expect him to be up against Tsonga who he has a great record on tour against, meeting him 5 times & winning the last 4, plus he is up against Federer in head to heads & seems to have the game to handle him. Murray hasn't fared so well against Nadal though having faced him 5 times this year & only having won the once, he can't match him on clay but this hard court gives Murray every chance especially with his great recent form. Murray still needs to improve, mainly on the mental & attacking sides of his game, if he's going to win a grand slam event but he's not far away & winning here in front of a home crowd could push him to the next level, this is a big tournament but he's ready to step up & take it & odds of 3/1 for Murray to be victorious should be taken.

Selections:
Andy Murray to win ATP Tour Finals outright at 3/1 (general)

Jo-Wilfried Tsonga to qualify through Group B at 11/8 (Stan James & Ladbrokes)