NFL Antepost Preview 2013 - Falcons can soar to the Super Bowl

The 2013 NFL season is right upon us now & it looks like it could be one to savour with several teams making moves to challenge for the Super Bowl right now & the usual powerhouses still fielding strong sides. We're taking a look here at some of the best antepost bets for the season that will culminate in the Super Bowl on the first weekend in February 2014. Last year we gave the San Francisco 49ers to be the NFC champions at 7/1 & they duly obliged so hopefully we can pick out some more value here.

AFC

Denver Broncos

This year everybody has been talking about the Denver Broncos who start with legendary passer Peyton Manning for the 2nd year after his move across from Indianapolis after a serious injury & it's easy to see why the Broncos have been the talk of the league with several big moves. The addition of the prolific Wes Welker at receiver was probably the most eye-catching move; he's had over 1,000 receiving yards in 5 seasons & Manning will relish having him to pass to. Welker is 32 though & that's probably why the Patriots let him go, the Broncos are going all out for this season & that could put the pressure on from a very early stage. They've also added to their defense at the deep positions with the signings of the veteran safety Quentin Jammer & the excellent Dominique Rodgers-Cromartie at cornerback. We really like Rodgers-Cromartie who probably wasn't used to best effect at all times in his two years in Philadelphia but he was great at Arizona previously & could be a key player here.

(Von Miller is suspended for 6 games & that could cost Denver dearly)

It isn't all good for Denver though with their running game looking light now Willis McGahee has departed, it is a passing league now though so maybe they'll get away with it & just because teams know they'll pass a lot doesn't mean they'll be able to stop Peyton anyway! A bigger loss to the Broncos was that of their ace defensive end Elvis Dumervil who ended up going to Baltimore in part due to a late submission of paperwork by his agent. The worst news though was the suspension for 6 games (of their 16 game season) of their star defensive player, outside linebacker Von Miller for a substance violation. Miller is one of the league's very best players & with him missing it could mean the Bronco's don't end up winning quite enough games to be a top seed in the playoffs. The AFC West should still be a formality for them but without home advantage through the post-season their odds look short enough for the AFC & the Super Bowl so are reluctantly passed over.

Houston Texans

We were keen on outright glory for the Houston Texans last year & not too much has changed to think they shouldn't be right there again this year. They amassed an impressive 11 wins from their first 12 games last season before slumping at the end to 3 losses in 4 & missing the AFC's top seed that would have kept them at home throughout the playoffs which is key as they're a dome side meaning inclement winter weather can really harm their chances. Some labelled the Texans as 'soft' but we're not sure it was a choke & it's no coincidence the slide came when their dominant inside linebacker Brian Cushing was injured, we're certain if he'd stayed fit the story would have had a different outcome.

(The return of Brian Cushing from injury is great news for the Texans)

The Texans have some of the best players in key positions in the league with Arian Foster an elite running back, Andre Johnson an ace wide receiver, Brian Cushing as already mentioned & the 2012 defensive player fo the year J.J. Watts at defensive end. Add to that a very good offensive line, including maybe the game's best left tackle Duane Brown, & it's difficult to see how they won't end up close to 13 wins this year but many doubt the capabilities of the quarterback Matt Schaub. Schaub doesn't have a reputation for being a 'clutch' player, meaning he doesn't come up with the plays in key situations often enough, but he's definitely highly talented as evidenced by him leading the league in key passer stats in 2009 (passing yards, completions, yards per game & attempts). If defensive co-ordinator Wade Phillips can keep his young & hugely talented defense firing Schaub may not have to improve much anyway as they should always be in with a chance whilst keeping their opposition's scoring opportunities low.

At 7/1 to win the AFC Houston seem to be the value picks as we think the New England Patriots may eventually start to slow this year after being exceptional for so long & the Broncos are just to short in price. Of the other AFC contenders according to the bookmakers we don't think the Ravens will even win their division (we like the Bengals in the AFC North so that also rules out Pittsburgh who could end up with a losing season) & 2013 is too early for the improving Colts, Dolphins & Chiefs.

NFC

Atlanta Falcons

The NFC looks stronger than the AFC this year with powerhouses like the San Francisco 49ers & Green Bay plus the impressive & improving Seattle Seahawks & always dangerous New Orleans Saints & Chicago Bears but the only team we want to side with is the Atlanta Falcons.

(Steven Jackson - last piece in the Atlanta Falcons' jigsaw?)

The Falcons are just scary in the passing game with a very good quarterback in Matt Ryan helped out by an amazing receiver corps of the ever youthful Tony Gonzalez at tight end & Julio Jones & Roddy White at wide receiver. The latter two thrive in the NFL with the rules helping their style of play by very much favouring them against the cornerbacks who will be trying to stop them - it's possible we could see Matt Ryan throw for career high numbers this year with them to aim at. The big improvement on offense has been the capture of Steven Jackson from the Rams at running back & he should mean that they can run the ball & use up the clock once they establish their now customary leads in games. Getting pegged back late on due to their inability to pound the ball up the middle really hurt Atlanta last year & it could be key to them getting their number one seed this year & staying at the Georgia Dome where they are so dominant.

Atlanta have also tried to improve their defense this year & taken a gamble on the now veteran defensive end Osi Umenyiora from the Giants but if he stays fit he'll add another dimension to their play bringing real aggression & pressure on opposition QB's - along with Justin Babineaux at defensive tackle they could have a lot of sacks this year. They've also looked to upgrade at cornerback with their first two draft selections & Desmond Trufant looks like he could thrive in the professional game, with their safety positions already solid look out for a much improved defensive showing this year.

Again like the Texans in the AFC Atlanta just look the value here with Seattle & San Francisco too short as joint favourites considering they'll have to play each other twice in the regular season meaning dropped games & Green Bay need to improve a little defensively even though their offense remains incredible. Take big odds of 9/1 for Atlanta to win the NFC & even bigger odds of 18/1 for them to collect their Super Bowl rings in early 2014.

Selections:
Houston Texans to win AFC at 7/1 (Ladbrokes)
Atlanta Falcons to win NFC at 9/1 (General) & to win Super Bowl at 18/1 (Paddy Power)

Solid Seagulls can heap more misery on Langusihing Lions

We're avoiding the Premier League this weekend with value seemingly a little thin on the ground from the prices we can see although there are various money back offers on Sunday's derby games fro those wanting a punt so keep your eyes & ear open for them. We're instead looking to get a double up in the Championship where the season is already into it's 5th round of games.

The NFL season starts next week too & we should have a preview (maybe split in two parts for the AFC & NFC) up early in the week - it's a great competition to bet on with an edge to be found on plenty of markets & a great sport with a real cerebral side to add to the physicality. Be sure to check back for bets right through the season to add to the football bets already underway.

Brighton vs Millwall

In our first game we see Brighton host Millwall in a game that looks like it could be a good opportunity for the home side to make it three league wins in a row as their silky style of football could undo their less cultured opponents.

(Leonardo Ulloa is on fire up front for Brighton & could strike again here)

Brighton started off their season a little sluggishly with defeats away at Leeds & then more disappointingly at home to Derby but they scored in both games through their star Argentinian striker Leonardo Ulloa & they've since beaten Birmingham & Burnley to get their campaign rolling. After last season's histrionics at the end with their acrimonious split with manager Gus Poyet, plus their playoff loss to chief rivals Crystal Palace, it was understandable that they may have suffered a slight hangover (they also lost to Newport in the League Cup) but they now seem to got going under new coach Oscar Garcia. It's fortunate for the Seagulls that Ulloa is playing so well & scoring so frequently because due to a smallish selection of players & injuries he looks likely to be their only fit out & out striker here as Ashley Barnes looks doubtful for selection.

Brighton play some nice football right throughout their side with plenty of Latin influence meaning they pass the ball well, certainly amongst the best in the Championship, & build from the back - usually they have the fullbacks Inigo Calderon & Bruno as key cogs in the plan but Bruno's out with a hamstring injury meaning it won't be quite so straightforward. We like the permanent signing of Matthew Upson in central defence & he's added a real solidity at the back in his time at the club plus Tomasz Kusczak has a great deal of quality in goal & is proving his worth after spending too much time as a back up in Manchester. They've a bit of quality in midfield, both in the centre & out wide & Kemy Augustien looks like a potentially great signing from Swansea - they should be able to get service into Ulloa who's good on the ground & in the air.

(Shaun Derry on loan - as far as Millwall's resources stretch...)

Millwall have unfortunately started this season, much as they finished the last, in dire form meaning they are now on a streak of 7 losses & 2 draws in 9 games & they've only scored 3 goals over the period. That lack of forward threat doesn't look likely to change with Steve Morison out with a hernia op & they've been failing to fire ever since Chris Wood finished his loan spell after Christmas. They always have a bit of fight in them but the quality looks to be lacking & with no money to go around they've not been able to make significant improvements in the off-season, Shaun Derry's on loan from QPR but he's 35 & has always relied on work rate rather than class to succeed. This looks to be a long season for the Lions & we don't see any outcome other than relegation, they could be in a whole heap of trouble even by the end of September.

Brighton only lost 3 times at home in the league in 2012-13 & with Millwall failing to score in 3 of their first 4 games this year they'll feel confident that they can keep the visitors at bay whilst netting at the other end, only SkyBet go as big as 4/5 for the Brighton win & that should be taken.

Doncaster Rovers vs Bournemouth

This selection seems a rather simple one but we can't understand why BetVictor have gone a standout Evens about there being over 2.5 goals in the Doncaster vs Bournemouth game in the Championship.

(Lewis Grabban is finding the environs of the Championship to his liking)

Bournemouth have tended to be fairly open so far & seem to need to learn to defend at a higher level after conceding 5 to Watford then 6 to Huddersfield so far on their travels & Doncaster have scored in all 3 of their games so far including twice away to fancied Wigan & there were 4 goals in their League Cup game here with Leeds. There was only the one goal here when they met last season with Bournemouth taking the win but their other game saw the over 2.5 land & both teams have strikers who are in the goals with Lewis Grabban with 4 for Bournemouth & Doncaster's new signing Theo Robinson bagging in consecutive games against Blackburn & Wigan. We thought the price would be around the 4/6 mark so think this looks a great value bet & it's unlikely you'll see these sort of odds too often for a game that seems to promise goals.

Selections:
Brighton to beat Millwall at 4/5 (SkyBet)
Doncaster vs Bournemouth Over 2.5 goals at Evens (Bet365 & BetVictor)

Villa Upstarts to go all ASBO over Liverpool

Another weekend of football action coming up & with 5 out of 6 winning bets, including 3 on the Premier League last week, we're hoping to continue in a similar vein with selections from the top division down to the lower leagues. As always if you find us here but don't follow us on Twitter please do; you can find us @LikeBuyingMoney & we'll hopefully keep you entertained as well as informed!

Aston Villa vs Liverpool

This is maybe the weekend's most interesting Premier League game (at least until Man United vs Chelsea on Monday night) as we get to take a look at a seemingly much improved Aston Villa side who take on the still Suarez-less Liverpool who for all their good play last week still only beat Stoke thanks to a late penalty save.

(Gabriel Agbonlahor finished 2012-13 in fine form & has continued so far this season)

Paul Lambert seems to be getting the best out of his squad of young players at the moment, particularly the forwards Christian Benteke & Gabby Agbonlahor with the lifelong Villa man looking unplayable at times with his pace & power in their opening two games against Arsenal & Chelsea. The ever-promising Fabian Delph may also be ready to deliver this season judged on the start he's made & whilst there remain issues with regards to Villa's sturdiness they look like they have the potential to give any side a game of it at the moment.

Liverpool finished off last season in pretty hot form (7 wins, 4 draws & a loss in their final 12) but by then it meant little in terms of what they could achieve in the league & it remains to be seen whether they can put that kind of form together over a whole season in order to claim a Champions League spot. Brendan Rodgers would surely be happy so long as they don't drop too many points whilst without their star striker Luis Suarez, out of action because of his ban & he's got his side a tricky contest here. Liverpool's main area of weakness for us is their lack of width in midfield with the fullbacks Johnson & Enriquez having to provide nearly all of that especially now that Stewart Downing has departed. Downing was considered a flop at the club but only Steven Gerrard started more games than him last season & it's not an ideal problem to have against Villa in particular.

(Brendan 'Envelope' Rodgers may find it hard to gain a victory away from the Anfield faithful)

Villa tended to struggle with balls into the box from out wide last year, including corners, so it's an ideal avenue to attack for most teams but with Weiman & Agbonlahor in advanced positions they should be able to defend from the front & keep Liverpool's fullbacks a bit quieter. Of course Liverpool are still dangerous with the classy operator Couinho & Gerrard, still capable of the spectacular, in midfield but Villa should be able to put men in against them & their defence will be happier to see the ball in front of them - they were relatively comfortable for long periods against a similar approach from Chelsea in the 2nd half on Wednesday.

Benteke is already on fire & his signing of a new contract looks the best bit of business done by a Premier League club this summer, with the young Belgian firing Villa have every chance of getting all 3 points here & with SportingBet & Paddy Power offering odds of 15/8 with the extra insurance of draw no bet this selection has to be advised. The fact Villa had to play in midweek is of course taken into account but at this stage of the season their players should be able to handle the quick turnaround & the extra football may come in handy whilst other teams try to shake off the pre-season rustiness.

Rotherham United vs Shrewsbury Town

In League One we see newly promoted Rotherham playing host to Shrewsbury in a clash that could be well be heavily influenced by the crucial home advantage. Shrewsbury ranked 20th in League One last season for points gained on the road whilst Rotherham ranked 4th at home in League Two & have started the season very respectably indeed.

(Rotherham's bruising centre forward Alex Revell could cause problems here)

Both teams gained their first wins of the season last week with Rotherham's 2-1 defeat of manager Steve Evans' former club Crawley particularly sweet for The Millers & that means Rotherham remain unbeaten thanks to a good draw with fancied Preston & two late goals away to Crewe salvaging a 3-3 draw & showing their battling qualities & good fitness levels to keep going to the end. Shrewsbury just don't seem to have many goals in their side, they didn't find the net in their first two games & their top scorer last season Marvin Morgan bagged just 7 goals with their number 9 Tom Bradshaw scoring his first goal in two years in their win against Swindon. We've already noted that Swindon appear to be a club in a bit of turmoil so we're not too impressed with that win & we reckon Graham Turner will be setting his team up not to lose rather than be proactive & aim for 3 points in this one.

Rotherham haven't looked bereft of ideas in attack so far this year & it's possible that their Irish midfielder Lee Frecklin could keep up his decent scoring record & the 6"3 forward Alex Revell poses a problem for most opposition defences & can link up well with either Nardiello or Agard. With the odds on offer at Evens with BetVictor (they're odds on everywhere else) Rotherham look worthy of a decent punt here to gain another victory in their push for successive promotions.

Selections:
Aston Villa to beat Liverpool draw no bet at 15/8 (Paddy Power & SportingBet)
Rotherham to beat Shrewsbury at Evens (BetVictor)

Monday Night Football - Magpies gonna sing the Sky Blues

A nice start to the Premier League season this weekend with plenty of new signings making their mark including our tip for top scorer honours Roberto Soldado, Simon Mignolet in goal for Liverpool & Ricky van Wolfswinkel for Norwich. It wasn't too bad for us on a betting front either with Rickie Lambert sealing a perfect 2 out of 2 with his last minute penalty to bring up the Southampton draw no bet winner to add to West Ham's impressive home victory. We're keen on both sides to have good seasons, Southampton have landed the striker they very much needed to help loosen Lambert's load with the capture of Roma's Pablo Osvaldo & West Ham can challenge for a top 7 spot if continuing their excellent home form from last year.

Here though we're going to take our first look at Monday Night Football for this season with the dysfunctional Newcastle United travelling to take on Manuel Pellegrini's new look Manchester City side in a game that is important for City to win if they're to lay down a marker of their intent.

Manchester City vs Newcastle United

(New Man City manager Manuel Pellegrini - he's from Santiago...)

Manchester City certainly signalled their intent at the end of last season with the removal of Roberto Mancini, his backroom staff & the superbly talented but troublesome Carlos Tevez (with Balotelli also departing 5 months before). They've signed players who're at the age & performance levels that they should be able to contribute straight away & all seem to fit areas of the team where upgrades could've argued to have been needed - it's a strategy that other clubs seem to have failed at (United & Arsenal failing to sign anybody & Chelsea seeming to sign players in just one position - they now have 732 creative midfielders...). Spending just £14.9m on Jesus Navas looks an inspired bit of business in today's extortionate market as the winger has bags of pace & offers genuine width that City lacked previously. Navas will be able to link up with Negredo straight away (they both came from Sevilla) & he'll find the underrated Edin Dzeko a superb target to cross to also. Pellegrini has been tasked with getting his side to play more attractive football than they sometimes did under Mancini & also to get some success in Europe compared to their humiliations over the past two years & he'll view a home match against Newcastle as a good opportunity to begin.

 (Cheick Tiote could be given the runaround by Yaya Toure & co.)

City should have a more attacking philosophy than last year & although they may concede a few more (they were the meanest in the league in 2012-13 with 34 conceded) they won't mind that if they can turn a few draws into wins. We'd say it was more the strategy than the personnel which contributed to City's good defensive record as we're not keen on Hart in goal & although Kompany & Zabaleta are stars we're not so sure about Clichy at left back or whoever they pair Kompany with. Gareth Barry looks to have lost his place with loan deals mooted & that should mean a pacey, scary lineup in this game with the freakishly powerful Yaya Toure & the delightfully talented Fernandinho likely to prove too much for Newcastle to handle in the centre of the pitch. Cheick Tiote's form dipped considerably last year & James Perch lacks the necessary quality, whilst the promising youngster Gael Bigirimana would find this a big ask - they could struggle to both win possession & keep it here & that will strangle the supply to their key attacking players of Gutierrez, Ben Arfa & Cabaye.


Newcastle's off-field issues have been commented on plenty & the problem we see from the off is that they underperformed last season yet haven't been able to do much business in the transfer market to attempt to rectify that with just the minor signing of Oliver Kemen ( a French midfielder surprise, surprise) & the loan signing of Loic Remy coming in so far. They struggled on the road last year with just two league wins (against QPR & Aston Villa) & the lack of firepower without Demba Ba particularly hurt them meaning draws tended to be the aim. That does mean they're used to trying to frustrate opposing sides & they've two very good defenders in Collocini & Santon plus a decent keeper in Tim Krul. The problem is as noted above that they probably won't have too much protection in front of the back four & their other defenders lack a bit of real quality with, for our money, Steven Taylor being a particularly poor player to have played so many Premier League seasons. To be fair Mathieu Debuchy only joined last January & he may well be bedded in now & he's certainly a step up on Danny Simpson at right back.

(City's Stevan Jovetic (right) could be value at 7/4 to score anytime)

This could be a long night for Newcastle & we've a feeling that City will come bursting out of the blocks in this one & could take a grip of the game early on, with that in mind the 9/10 that BetVictor (fast becoming our favourite bookies for football betting) offer for a Man City half time/full time result is the suggested punt. City managed that in 9 of their 19 home games last season & although that suggests odds on isn't a fair price Newcastle are a weaker side than many & poor travellers. The other selection is contingent on him being in the starting lineup & that is Stevan Jovetic anytime goalscorer at 7/4 - the skillful Monetengrin knocked in 27 goals in 58 league games for Fiorentina over the past two years & that's pretty close to the magic 1 in 2 so the odds are very fair.

Selections:
Manchester City half time/full time at 9/10 (BetVictor)
Stevan Jovetic to score at anytime at 7/4 (General) if he starts 

Super Saints to get a Divine Start to the Season

Well... seeing as it's the start of the season in the top division in England we thought we'd better go for a Premier League double bill & have selections from games involving new England hero Rickie Lambert's Southampton & everyone's favourite manager 'Big Sam' & his West Ham side. So far we've started out with 2 of 3 outright selections hitting the mark with Peterborough in the first week of the season & Watford slamming home the pick with a 6-1 hammering, the loser was a 9/4 draw bet & we're hoping to improve this week! As always make sure you're following us on Twitter @LikeBuyingMoney - it's a good place to let us know your views & we'll put picks up there sometimes too.

West Bromwich Albion vs Southampton

Last year's overperformers West Brom host substantial summer spenders Southampton at the Hawthorns where Mauricio Pochettino's men will be hoping to add to their rather measly 3 away victories in comparison to 2012-13.

(Morgan Schneiderlin's exceptional 2012-13 season went unrecognised for the most part but people should sit up & take notice this time around)

Southampton have gone fairly big on the signings front in an attempt to avoid second season syndrome that sides promoted from the Championship that do well in their first season can tend to suffer; Victor Wanyama has come in from Celtic for £12.5m & should help shore up the midfield area in front of defence & Croatian centre back Dejan Lovren has come in for around £8.5m. We like the approach that Southampton have taken, bringing in relative youngsters (22 & 24 respectively) & going for quality rather than quantity in an attempt to strengthen in specific areas. We still reckon they may want to upgrade between the sticks at some point as Artur Boruc is slightly unpredictable & they don't appear to have much strength in depth behind new England cap winner Rickie Lambert with Jay Rodriguez not convincing on the goals front in the top flight so far.

(Ben Foster - England's No 1?)

The lack of strike options could cost Southampton over the season but we reckon Lambert will be bouncing after his debut against Scotland & could prove too hot for the West Brom defenders to handle - he'll already have had shooting practice against Ben Foster in midweek & will be ultra confident & that spells trouble for the Baggies who were pretty toothless, Lukaku aside, last year.

West Brom will have new signings in Nicolas Anelka & Matej Vydra still trying to bed in & goals could be at a premium for the first few weeks of the season & although they'll remain somewhat hard to beat with Yacob & Mulumbu physically dominating a lot of midfields those two probably don't have a great match-up in this one. Wanyama will be there for the Saints but will also be joined by the emerging Jack Cork & one of the stars of the entire league last season Morgan Schneiderlin whose stats last season were through the roof topping tackles & interceptions showing just what a good young player he is - there hasn't been much transfer talk around the young Frenchman but it wouldn't be surprising to see a big club come sniffing around before long. Adam Lallana & Gaston Ramirez should keep the West Brom fullbacks busy too & that should limit chances for Wes Brom. Just 3 away wins last season remains a concern & we'd rather not take them outright instead having the insurance offered at 13/10 with Ladbrokes on the draw no bet market we like the Saints chances of starting the season very brightly indeed.

West Ham United vs Cardiff City

West Ham bounced back up to the top flight last season & ended up just inside the top half with a very respectable 10th placed finish & they'll be looking to build on that this year whilst Cardiff's number one priority is to avoid slipping straight back to the Championship. This game is actually a repeat of their opening fixture from two seasons back in the Championship where Cardiff prevailed 1-0, West Ham however gained their revenge by beating the Bluebirds three times in a row after that including in the playoffs. We're keen on the home side again this time as they'll see this as an ideal opportunity to get the season off to a flyer.

(Andy Carroll & Kevin Nolan - maybe the Premier League's most effective partnership?)

West Ham can trouble pretty much any team in the Premier League because most sides just aren't used to dealing with many teams that play quite the way Sam Allardyce's sides do with Stoke maybe the only other side who've had a similar style in that they're quite happy to concede possession & instead make the most of when they do have the ball by getting it forward with pace. Allardyce clearly believes that he's got a squad capable of executing his plans because there haven't been too many major changes in the summer apart from clearing out a bit of expensive dead wood in Carlton Cole's departure & the recent signing of Stewart Downing. Romanian left back, the amusingly named, Razvan Rat has joined & the signing of Spanish keeper Adrian looks a smart move as Jussi Jaaskelainen's time as a top stopper looks to be coming to an end. Downing will join up with his ex-Liverpool team mate Andy Carroll who's been added as a permanent signing & although the big Geordie isn't everyone's cup of tea he fits just right at West Ham who always look to play to his strengths.

(Cardiff's Kim Bo-Kyung could take his game to another level in the top division)

Cardiff may be planning to play their new signing Andreas Cornelius in a similar type of role to that of Carroll because the young Danish international looks a bit of a beast at 6'4" & given the right service he'll cause teams problems - it might not be West Ham though who have strength & height (not to mention experience) across the back line & are rarely troubled by balls into the box. The Bluebirds looked very sound defensively last season & that'll help out here but they don't appear to have a proven goalscorer at this level, Frazier Campbell could be that man if he can stay fit, & they may also lack a little bit of guile in midfeld. Club record signing the Chilean Gary Medel probably won't add that creative touch as he's more of a destroyer type & although he's made himself into a club legend over the past 6 years Peter Whittingham never stood out as a youngster when with Aston Villa so has it all to prove. The young South Korean Kim Bo-Kyung could be the man to watch for Cardiff, he's settled in after a promising first season & may prefer the slightly less physical environment of the Premier League than the Championship - he's seen as a potential star by many fans & has taken on Park Ji Sung's number 7 shirt for his national team.

Cardiff continued to signal their intent with the slightly surprising signing of Steven Caulker from Tottenham, the North London club seemed to be singing his praises for much of last season but clearly he didn't feature in AVB's plans as he wanted to turn his team into genuine title challengers. Caulker could be a steal at just £8m, having the potential to be a mainstay for many years; he has only very recently signed though & may take time to settle in & that's a big reason why we reckon West Ham are good value for the win here. The Hammers have a very settled squad & they should look to take advantage of that over the first few weeks of the season starting here. They've retained the excellent Mo Diame & he should handle the Cardiff midfield whilst Kevin Nolan will be relishing linking up with Andy Carroll again further up the pitch, Matt Jarvis &, if he starts, Stewart Downing should keep the Cardiff fullbacks busy & this could be a long afternoon for the Welsh side's defence & keeper David Marshall. Take West Ham to get a win on the board at best odds of Evens with BetVictor or Paddy Power.

Selections:
Southampton to beat West Brom draw no bet at 13/10 (Ladbrokes)
West Ham United to beat Cardiff City at Evens (BetVictor & Paddy Power)

Premier League 2013-14 Antepost Season Preview - Relegation & Golden Boot

The general consensus was that the 2012-13 Premier League season was not a vintage year & it probably didn't help that the race for the title was effectively over by mid-January thanks to Manchester United's blisteringly winning form. 2013-14 looks to be shaping up nicely though with plenty of new faces on the pitch & in the dugouts & we've taken a look through the markets to try to identify some value, season-long bets.

Relegation:

Last year we got it spectacularly wrong when selecting West Bromwich Albion to be relegated, we reckoned that with a new manager in place & a lack of high profile names that they would struggle but Steve Clarke had his men raring to go at the start of the season (26 points from the first 39 available) & the excellent Romelu Lukaku's goals helped steer them to an unlikely 8th place finish.

(West Brom could suffer without Lukaku's goals & Shane Long doesn't inspire us with confidence)

Of course the upside of West Brom doing so well last season is that their price for relegation this year is a rather large 9/1 (BetVictor) & there's reason to believe that may just be value this time around. Last year the Baggies were just 4/1 for relegation & we thought that was justified due to the apparent lack of goals in the side (Lukaku had not shown anywhere near the same level of form when appearing for a superior Chelsea side) & of course with him returning to London it seems fair to raise that question again. Shane Long scored 8 times in the league last year (3 times from February onwards) & at times looked shorn of confidence when in front of goal & the signing of Nicolas Anelka at the ripe old age of 34 doesn't inspire confidence. Matej Vydra could be making his way to the Midlands via a loan signing & he was certainly great for Watford in the Championship but this is a step up on the defences he faced there. Another mooted signing is Man City flop Scott Sinclair but he may be rusty after not playing much football & occasionally appears a little lightweight.

West Brom do look better at the back than their lacklustre attack & we're particularly fans of Ben Foster in goal, he seems a serious footballer who seems happier at a slightly smaller Premier League club like West Brom. Foster will be seeing a fine footballer step into the back four in the form of Uruguay captain Diego Lugano at centre back, he's on loan from French champions PSG, understandably not being able to get ahead of their Brazilian contingent of defenders. The worry with Lugano is that he turns 33 in November & hasn't played a lot of club football in the past two seasons & he may not have quite the motivation of other contracted players if they do start to struggle. Jonas Olsson was in fine form last year & has been a fine servant for the club, he'll surely be one of the first names on the team sheet again. West Brom are weaker elsewhere in defence though & it seemed some players stepped up on all known form last year including Liam Ridgewell, Billy Jones & Gareth McAuley - we can't see them having such good seasons again.

(Gareth McAuley & others overperformed last season & a reversion could see the Baggies in danger)

In midfield Mulumbu & Yacob are solid but a lack of creativity, particularly from wide areas, that will be needed to supply that unconvincing attack, looks likely to cost them. We can't see how they'll replace Lukaku's goals, many of which were scored by him seemingly through sheer force of will, & their 53 goals scored total from 2012-13 (remember boosted by the freak 5-5 with Man Utd) will drop considerably & wins will start turning to draws & draws to losses. The 9/1 for West Brom to fill one of the relegation spots is too much of a tempter & a small bet over the season could offer a very nice return.

Golden Boot

Talking of goals this year's top scorer market seems an interesting one with Robin van Persie deservedly topping the betting as he's been the winner for the past two seasons & already looks sharp judging by his two goals in the Community Shield. van Persie's odds of 7/2 are short enough though considering he has tended to pick up injuries through his career until these last two years, if you could guarantee he'd play 30+ games he'd be an automatic pick but we'd rather go for a player at bigger odds.

(Spurs' record signing Roberto Soldado is a top marksman & can strike at 20/1)

Roberto Soldado is the man we like to make a big impact in his Premier League debut season & although foreign imports have never won this particular race in their first season we reckon he has the right circumstances to do it. He's easily banged goals in at a rate of more than one every other game for the past 4 seasons in Spain & that includes a stint for Getafe where he scored 33 in 66 over two seasons & his league goals tally reads 16, 18, 17 & 24 for the last 4 terms. He'll be playing in a Spurs side that is full of creative talent in midfield with Aaron Lennon, Gylfi Sigurdsson, Moussa Dembele, Lewis Holtby & exciting new signing Paulinho all providing him with opportunities.
 
We've purposely left Gareth Bale off of that list as he looks fairly likely to head off to Madrid by the time the transfer window shuts & that wouldn't necessarily be a bad thing for Soldado's chances as Spurs tended to fall into a habit of letting Bale rescue them last year but they'll have to impose themselves more without him. The Europa League could prove a distraction but we imagine that Spurs will field a shadow side for the league stage & Soldado should see plenty of Premier League games & seems to have the type of game to excel in England with a willingness to shoot on site that has certainly evaded Emmanuel Adebayor at times, a player who could end up providing a lot of chances if selected to play as a strike partner.

(van Persie is a deserving favourite in the Golden Boot market)

At odds of 20/1 Soldado looks a solid option away from van Persie when you consider Man City will rotate their strikers aroun, the dangerous Luis Suarez will be banned for the first part of the season & Wayne Rooney's status remains up in the air. Back him & take the each way terms of 1/4 odds for the first 4 places & he should be in contention all season.

Selections:
West Bromwich Albion to be relegated at 9/1 (BetVictor)
Robert Soldado each way to win the Golden Boot at 20/1 (1/4 odds 1-2-3-4)

Watford's Hornets possess more sting than Brentford's Bees

Last week we set out our fancies for Championship success over the course of the season & for Twitter followers selected Peterborough as our bet of the weekend (successful at 11/10) but this week we're back with our first proper blog of the season & we've trawled the games & the stats to bring you some value tips.

Watford vs Bournemouth

We reckon that this is the game to watch this weekend with last season's highest scorers in the Championship, Watford, playing host to last year's top goal-getters from League One as Eddie Howe's Bournemouth roll into town.

(Watford's Almen Abdi shows off his smooth technique)

The two teams are some of the more interesting clubs around, both on & off the pitch, with Watford's strong ties to Italy & there being talk of potentially very substantial sums of money around Bournemouth who are part-owned by (amusingly named) Russian businessman Max Denim. Both sides are committed to playing attractive football & that comes from the coaches with Gianfranco Zola being one of the finest players to grace English football in the past 20 years & Eddie Howe one of the brightest young managerial talents around whose reputation was seemingly not harmed by his sacking from Burnley. That attacking philosophy is borne out not just by the fact that both teams were top scorers in their leagues but also because they happened to ship a few goals too with Watford's games containing joint-most overall last year & Bournemouth's 2nd most in League One.

Both teams have started out with 100% records with wins on the first league game of the season & then midweek victories in the first round of the League Cup so will be coming into this game with a little bit of a bounce in their step. That however may not be a good thing for Bournemouth as they are running into one of the Championship's top teams here who only missed out on automatic promotion by a couple of points last year & appear to have a top striker in Troy Deeney even if they couldn't persuade their top man from last year Matej Vydra to stay. The Hornets don't have to just rely on Deeney for firepower though with the diminutive Fernando Forestieri chipping in with a few & the excellent Almen Abdi ready to score as well as creat goals from midfield.

Bournemouth have tried to improve their options in defence with the signings of Ian Harte & Elliott Ward but more than that needs to be done if they aren't to concede with regularity & at the moment it remains to be seen whether their attack at the other end will be able to compensate although Lewis Grabban had a dream start bagging both goals in their 2-1 win against Charlton. We've no worries that Bournemouth will stay up this year as their home form seems likely to be strong but it's on the road that we worry & Watford should be slightly shorter than 8/11 to win this one - the odds of 4/5 for over 2.5 goals was tempting too but we'll stay with the home win.

Brentford vs Sheffield United

The other game we like the look of from a betting point of view is between last season's 3rd & 5th place League One sides, Uwe Rosler's Brentford & start-up manager David Weir's Sheffield United as the two well fancied teams battle it out for early season supremacy.

(Sheffield United will do well to hold on to 6"4 youngster Harry Maguire for another year)

Brentford have gone about increasing their squad size in the summer with loans & permanent signings, with Will Grigg probably the standout buy after the 22 year old scored 19 times in the league for Walsall last term. The Blades have been more cautious in the transfer market in terms of volume but have a big squad already & they'll be desperate for new signings Febian Brandy & Lyle Taylor to fire in the goals they need to add to their defensive solidity that Weir will look to maintain.

Both teams lost a joint league-low 9 games last season but came up with too many draws to claim an automatic promotion place & instead failed in the playoffs. With Sheffield United surely coming to first ensure they don't lose this could be a tense little encounter & that means the draw becomes a big player in the market & odds of 12/5 are very fair indeed. We think Sheffield United will be ultra conscious of the threat Clayton Donaldson provides the Bees & will attempt to defend in numbers to counter that & as they are so comfortable on the back foot a small play of No Goalscorer at 17/2 with BetVictor is advised also.

Selections:
Watford to beat Bournemouth at 8/11 (Various)
Brentford to draw with Sheffield United at 12/5 (Bet365 & SkyBet)
No Goalscorer - Brentford vs Sheffield United at 17/2 (BetVictor)

Championship Antepost Preview 2013-14 - Can't see the Woods for the Forest

It’s hard to believe that it will have only been 69 days since Crystal Palace were victorious in the Championship playoff final when the 2013/14 season gets underway on Saturday. It certainly won’t be long before the same old clichés of "anyone can beat anyone" and "it's the hardest league to get out of" are used again & to be fair it's possible to stake a claim for a dozen sides this coming season but having considered the likely promotion contenders we’ve got two selections... at the prices we think Nottingham Forest at 11/1 (Sky Bet) to win the league and Brighton at 11/2 (BetVictor) to earn promotion represent good value.

(Defender Eric Lichaj appeared in nearly half of Aston Villa's Premier League games last year & looks a solid addition to the Forest squad)

Billy Davies guided Forest into 8^th place last season. Davies took over as Forest manager for the second time with just 15 games of the season remaining, winning 7 of those 15 (46%). A full pre-season working with the players and the ability to sign his own players will certainly help the Forest cause. Lewis McGugan and David McGoldrick have departed however Jamie Mackie, Eric Lichaj, Gonzalo Jara, Jack Hobbs, Dorus De Vries, Djamel Abdoun and Jamie Paterson have all joined the club meaning more strength in depth across the pitch & they certainly look to have options at every position which is key in the grueling 46 league game season.

The ability to pick up points away from home is key in this division – it’s no surprise that the three sides that won the most away games in 12/13 filled the top three places in the table. Not only do Forest need to pick up points away from home but they also  need to turn draws into wins if they are to challenge at the top end of the Championship this season. In 12/13 they drew on 16 occasions, had three of these draws been victories they'd have finished above the eventually promoted side Crystal Palace, hopefully the signings of Mackie et al can improve their fortunes. If they can continue the upward curve that Billy Davies sent them on at the end of last season then Nottingham Forest have every chance of challenging for the top prize.

 

 (New Brighton boss Oscar Garcia will be hoping for no repeats of last year's 'dirty protests' in the dressing room)

We see no reason why the departure of Gus Poyet will destabilise Brighton who impressed many last season when finishing 4^th. The managerial saga was finally concluded in June when former Barca youth coach Oscar Garcia was announced as boss & clearly he's a top pedigree that should fit right in with Brighton's smooth passing style.

Like Forest if Brighton can turn draws into wins they can propel themselves even higher in the league, they accumulated a whopping 18 draws last season & they’ll be hoping that Garcia’s attacking style of play aids them in collecting maximum points more often. Just like Forest they finished last season strongly – 'winning' the second half of the season (claiming 41 points from 23 games).

There have been minimal tweaks in the playing personnel with the permanent signing of the experienced Matthew Upson a boost for the club. Wayne Bridge however will be plying his trade for promotion rivals Reading in 2013/14. We’re in no doubt that Garcia will add to his playing squad before the transfer deadline closes & if they can replicate their performances of last year they should put themselves in the mix once again & claim at least a shot in the playoffs & at a best price of 11/2 (BetVictor) for promotion we think that’s good value.

In the handicap market we think that Ipswich, under Mick McCarthy and Blackburn Rovers will improve on last season; however they’ll probably fall just short with +14 and +12 points respectively. Our selection in this market is Middlesbrough. At 25/1 with a +16 handicap we believe Tony Mowbray’s men can surprise a few and challenge for a top 8 position, giving them every chance in the handicap market. An improvement is required on their travels in they are to compete in the top half, having won 13 of their home games (same amount as promoted Hull) its obvious that the return of 17 points away from the Riverside needs to be bettered in 13/14. Boro finished just 9 points off the playoffs last term – quite remarkable given the fact that they amassed fewer points than any other side in the second half of the season, a summer to shake out the negative thoughts that must've crept in towards the end of the year will have done them the world of good.

(Jordan Rhodes is this division's most proven goalscorer & a worthy favourite for the golden boot)

It's hardly a selection out of the blue given that the Oldham born striker is the favourite but the £8 million hitman Jordan Rhodes bagged 27 goals in 43 appearances at this level last season and a similar return this year should see him triumphant with the only worry being that a Premier League club or maybe Celtic... could come in for him in either transfer window. Rhodes can be backed at 8/1 with BetVictor.

We also quite like a speculative 80/1 (Betfred) shot. Michael Chopra has moved from Ipswich to Blackpool in the close season and clearly knows where the net is. His off the field problems have been well documented and a move to Blackpool might not exactly change his ways however there's no doubt that at this level he scores goals & Blackpool have an attacking philosophy (often to the detriment of their woeful defence) that will help Chopra’s cause. His recent returns haven’t been that impressive but it’s likely that he’ll start far more games for Paul Ince's Tangerines and if he gets the service we can see the goals coming. At an average a goal every 3 appearances (including sub appearances) throughout his career it's feasible Chopra could get 16+ goals for the Bloomfield Road outfit & that should give him a better chance of sneaking into the each way places than odds of 80/1 imply.

Selections:

Nottingham Forest to win the league at 11/1 (Skybet)

Brighton to gain promotion at 11/2 (BetVictor)

Middlesbrough to win handicap with +16 points at 25/1 (BetVictor)

Jordan Rhodes top scorer at 8/1 (BetVictor)

Michael Chopra (e/w) top scorer at 80/1 (Betfred)

Royal Ascot 2013 - Pick the Rite one in Gold Cup

Tuesday's Royal Ascot was a big let down for us with Animal Kingdom completely flopping in the Queen Anne (no explanation for the poor show has been forthcoming) & Reckless Abandon hanging in the latter stages of the King's Stand. It was certainly a disappointing start but Thursday is Gold Cup day & the UK's premier race for stayers looks to offer some value whilst we also think an outsider could outrun its odds in the Britannia Stakes.

3.45 Royal Ascot - Gold Cup

An outstanding showing of 18 runners for this Group One event over two & a half miles & 11 of the runners have official ratings of 112 upwards to show the strength in depth of the race. That strength in depth means you can get 6/1 for the favourite (likely to be the Queen's filly Estimate) & plenty of nice prices elsewhere in the field & we like the 7/1 available about the hugely talented, unfortunately fragile, former winner Rite Of Passage.

(Rite Of Passage is tenacious & classy - what's not to like?)

Dermot Weld's 9 year old won the race in game fashion on today's good to firm ground in 2010 yet has only made it to the track twice since, once in 2011 & again just once in 2012 when winning at the track in October against a high quality field. From just five true flat runs (ignoring bumper races) Rite Of Passage has won 4 races & finished 3rd the other time (to the awesome Fame And Glory) - that's some record & the horse, thankfully, doesn't take much racing so looks likely to put up a serious challenge here.

We're not too keen on Estimate's chances although she's clearly a very nice filly & she gets allowances both for her age & gender meaning she gets 5 pounds off the older horses. We just think that the ground may be against her as sire Monsun tends to get horses with a nice round action that go better with a little cut in the ground & her most impressive display came on soft ground when destroying the field last year here in the Queen's Vase. Her price may just be a little shorter than it should be thanks to her owner (remember all the hype with Carlton House?) & we fear others more including Opinion Poll & Francois Doumen's Top Trip who could come good over this testing trip.

With a proposed run out at the Curragh cancelled the build up to the race could have been better for Rite Of Passage but there's no better horse in the race so odds of 7/1 look very fair indeed & warrant a decent wager.

4.25 Royal Ascot - Britannia Stakes

There's no doubt about it, our next selection is a risky one but how could it be anything else in a 30 runner, one mile charge up the straight course? The pick is Ebn Arab at odds of 40/1 so that risk also offers a potentially hefty reward.

(Charlie Hills sends out Ebn Arab for the Brittania Handicap)

Charlie Hills' charge has looked imperious in wins at York (on debut) & Doncaster (seasonal debut) but has disappointed in his other three, admittedly fairly hot, races. Those wins came when the ground was pretty quick & that's what we think could make the difference here with the Dixie Union colt bred to appreciate a rattlingly quick surface & clearly not handling the step up in trip, stiff finish & soft ground at Sandown last time out. At Doncaster he seemed to enjoy travelling with a bit of cover, even though only a four runner affair, & should be able to find some cover in this big field & if settling could be on a very nice mark of 100 as we had the impression of a pattern performer before his blowout last time.

There are plenty of questions to answer & lots of opposition but Bet365 offer 5 places & odds of 40/1 about Ebn Arab & those terms are tempting enough to advise an each way bet.

Selections:
3.45 Royal Ascot - Rite Of Passage to win at 7/1 (Various)
4.25 Royal Ascot - Ebn Arab each way at 40/1 (Bet365 1/4 odds 5 places)

Royal Ascot 2013 - Just can't resist the Animal Magnetism

Royal Ascot is just about the creme de la creme of British flat racing with other meetings such as Newmarket's Champions Day offering up some top class racing but not being able to match the quantity & quality of Ascot's racing year after year. With the usual reasonable selection of international challengers 2013 looks likely to throw up some great races & give a good indication of just how good some of the home trained stars really are.

2.30 - Queen Anne Stakes

Kicking off the meeting are three Group Ones in a row & the first race may well see the best horse the meeting has to offer as it features US challenger Animal Kingdom, the 2011 Kentucky Derby winner & this year's convincing Dubai World Cup winner.

(Beautiful beast Animal Kingdom can prove too classy in the opener)

This really doesn't have to be a long preview to convince anyone that Animal Kingdom is the beast to back, last year was a difficult one with training difficulties meaning trainer Graham Motion could get just 2 runs under the horses belt; one in February & then much later in the year with a very creditable 2nd in the always high class Breeders' Cup Mile where top European miler Excelebration was in behind. Animal Kingdom hasn't ever won at a distance as short as a mile & that is a slight concern but lack of pace isn't a problem as evidenced when tearing up the final half mile of the Kentucky Derby in a time only bettered by all-time great Secretariat.

Far less of a concern to Animal Kingdom backers are his rivals here with maybe only a couple of the other challengers looking like genuine Group One contenders. Elusive Kate certainly deserves her place in the lineup & John Gosden's filly is twice a winner at the top level already as well as being placed at Group One level another 4 times & she is an extremely solid each way bet especially if the favourite were to underperform. Other than Elusive Kate we like the look of the progressive older horse Trade Storm; a horse that really flourished in Dubai this winter & ended up starting favourite for the Dubai Duty Free on World Cup night. David Simcock's 5 year old makes more appeal than Aidan O'Brien's Declaration Of War, that one started a ludicrously priced 5/4 favourite for the Lockinge in early May after Group 3 & Listed race wins against mediocre (for the grade) opposition, & was promptly swept aside & finished a well back 5th.

At Evens it's well worth siding with Animal Kingdom to show its class & win here & add his name to an illustrious roll of honour that inlcudes, over the past 3 years: Paco Boy; Canford Cliffs; Goldikova & Frankel. Comfortable on all surfaces & able to run well without too much racing he's by far the best horse in the race on form & that's borne out by the fact he's 10 pounds clear on official ratings - get on!

3.05 - King's Stand Stakes

As one of the 10 races in the Global Sprint Challenge the King's Stand & has seen numerous international challengers take the prize (6 times in the last 8 runnings) & that helps explain why South African raider Shea Shea is a warm favourite to win here.

(5 furlong champion claims await Clive Cox's Reckless Abandon if he can win here)

Shea Shea was certainly impressive in Dubai last time out, taking the Al Quoz Sprint & setting a track record in the process but two races before that didn't run his race at all & finihsed 7th to one of today's rivals Medicean Man. We like Medicean Man a lot but he's probably not a true Group One horse & it may be that Shea Shea just needed the run there, he's been off the track now for nearly 3 months & if he thrives with racing this might be a little too competitive to trust his fitness at short odds.

The selection for us has to be Reckless Abandon who was challenging up with Dawn Approach as the most exciting & impressive juvenile of 2012 with 5 wins from 5 starts & two Group 2's & two Group One's in the mix. Chucked in at the deep end against older horses on his first start this season Clive Cox's 3 year old ran a fine race in defeat in Haydock's Group 2 Temple Stakes, he raced on the unfavoured side of the track there & had a Group One penalty to contend with yet finished just a neck & a head behind the winner when claiming 3rd.

With a run just about 4 weeks ago under his belt Reckless Abandon should be spot on for this, 5 furlongs looks the horse's ideal distance (we think) & odds of 5/1 even allow each way betting for the timid amongst us - we think a win bet will suffice though & a small forecast with the impressive last time out Spirit Quartz could be a fun bet too.

Selections:
2.30 - Queen Anne Stakes - Animal Kingdom to win at Evens (General)
3.05 - King's Stand Stakes - Reckless Abandon to win at 5/1 (Boylesports, StanJames & 888Sport)
3.05 - King's Stand Stakes - Reckless Abandon to beat Spirit Quartz forecast

Ebn Arab to outclass Sandown rivals

We've kind of been on an unofficial break here at LikeBuyingMoney central but it's been for a reason with us not being able to identify an awful lot of value in the domestic football markets during the season run in with some of the market over-reactions seen inprevious years maybe not quite so evident. We're back here with a horse racing pick before the Oaks & Derby at Epsom this Friday & Saturday & are quietly confident that this is a pretty good one on the best evening racing of the year here in the UK.

8.20 Sandown - Heron Stakes

We clocked Ebn Arab's potential right from the start when particularly taken with the Dixie Union colt's debut win when taking a 7 furlong maiden at York by 5 lengths & getting considerably better as the race went on. Trainer Charlie Hills clearly thought his horse had talent as Ebn Arab was put into Group 3 company on his next two outings when filling the 4th spot both times but up behind some pretty good horses, in the first race, York's Acomb Stakes, Dundonnell & Steeler finished 1st & 2nd & have last raced with respective ratings of 113 & 112 so are very useful types.

(Paul Hanagan will hope to get another winner up for Sheikh Hamdan Al Maktoum)

It's fair to say that Ebn Arab didn't look a world beater in those 2nd & 3rd runs even taking into account the step up in class but his runs just didn't match up to debut as he weakened late on in the latter races when it seemed he excelled in the maiden the further it went. On seasonal debut nearly 4 weeks ago Ebn Arab slammed rivals rated 95 & 105 by 3&1/4 lengths & 5 lengths respectively with a very smooth victory that seemed to suggest he'd trained on well.

The main rivals here look to be Richard Hannon's Montiridge & William Haggas's Queensbury Rules & both have form linked in with this past weekend's Irish 2,000 Guineas. Montiridge finished a close 2nd to the Irish 2,000 Guineas 3rd Trading Leather last year but was disappointing on debut this year when 3rd & well beaten in a Listed contest at Windsor - probably so respected in the market here due to that Trading Leather form but we're unconvinced especially as we think Trading Leather was given a very soft lead at the Curragh anyway.

Queensbury Rules' form is interesting as on just its 2nd run (& 2nd win) it beat Glacial Age that then went on & finished 3rd to the Irish Guineas winner Magician at Chester - it was well beaten (8 lengths) at Chester but that still suggests Queensbury Rules has already run to a nice level. A big plus for Queensbury Rules is that this is a small field affair & as the only confirmed front runner Fallon should get his mount an easy lead - we're actually quite pleased as we think that should give Ebn Arab the tow he wants into the race & odds of 3/1 for a colt also entered in the Group One St James Palace look too good to pass up. We'd like it if the ground could dry a little during the day as Ebn Arab has a US pedigree & they tend to like quicker ground but stamina wise we're not too concerned as Dixie Union did sire a Belmont Stakes (1m 4f) winner.

Selection:
8.20 Sandown - Ebn Arab to win at 3/1 (Various)

2000 Guineas - Take a winning Approach

The first two Classics of the season are upon us as Newmarket hosts the 2,000 Guineas for colts on Saturday & the fillies equivalent in the 1,000 Guineas on Sunday, we're taking a look at both races as we look to continue selecting winners on the flat.


Saturday 3.50 Newmarket - 2,000 Guineas

(Godolphin owned Dawn Approach can provide his Dubai owners with some much needed joy)

We were pretty sweet on the chances of Richard Hannon's Toronado in his Guineas trial the Craven & the High Chaparral colt won in impressive style over the course & distance & deserves to be riding high in the betting. The Craven was just a four runner affair though & the runner up Havana Gold, whilst a nice type probably isn't a star & it looked like Toronado was far better suited to the conditions than his rivals there, of course those are the same as here with ground conditions similar too & jockey Richard Hughes should have him well positioned. As good as Toronado may be we've a suspicion that he looks more of a Derby type, especially how he's finished his races, & last season's star colt Dawn Approach looks the better option right now.

Jim Bolger's colt won the excellent Guineas trial the Dewhurst here at the end of last season just like his sire New Approach who finished 2nd in the 2008 version of this race. That Dewhurst win followed 5 previous wins from 5 starts including excellent victories at Royal Ascot & in the Group One National Stakes at the Curragh. Although Dawn Approach hasn't won over the distance yet there seems little doubt he'll get it as wins on softish ground over just a furlong shorter suggest a mile looks the perfect distance. There are discrepancies in price thanks to support for Toronado in the last week or so & Dawn Approach is available at 15/8 with (BetVictor) whilst as short as 5/4 with Ladbrokes, that 15/8 looks worthy of a significant wager.

Of the other contenders Aidan O'Brien's three entries have to be worth looking at considering his great record in the race with 6 previous wins including last year with the great Camelot - Cristoforo Colombo looks his number one chance with son, & Irish champion jockey, Joseph O'Brien taking the mount. Cristoforo Colombo has only won once in five runs & has already lost to Dawn Approach (in the Coventry at Royal Ascot) & we were slightly surprised that Mars wasn't the first choice even though the beautifully bred Galileo colt has only run one time before. Richard Hannon's other entry Van Der Neer has a very nice turn of foot & could offer value if you do look outside of the first two in the betting but we're confident that Dawn Approach can win with style.

Sunday 3.50 Newmarket - 1,000 Guineas

The 1,000 Guineas looks an altogether more open affair with no standout filly in the market & we like the chances of another French winner after Natagora in 2008 & Special Duty in 2010 with Mikel Delzangles' What A Name looking to hold a leading chance.

(What A Name can take the 2013 1,000 Guineas trophy to France)

What A Name was beaten just over a length by Olympic Glory at Longchamp on Arc weekend & that looks probably the best bit of form on offer (we reckon Olympic Glory will win the French 2,000 Guineas). We like the breeding of What A Name with her being by Mr Greeley & that should mean that quickish ground should hold no worries & her rider Christophe Lemaire has already won the race before & should be able to get her well placed from her stall 12 draw.

The favourite Hot Snap has only raced twice & looks to be at the head of the market on promise & thanks to the deserved reputation of trainer Henry Cecil as a master trainer of fillies. Although the win in the Nell Gwyn was impressive by Hot Snap we're not sure that the runner up Sky Lantern is as good as her official rating suggests & odds of 11/4 are too short. We're convinced What A Name will run into a place at a minimum & that means that a hefty each way bet at odds of 5/1 looks a good way to guarantee a return - we think she'll win & that could mean a highly profitable weekend of racing.

Selections:
Dawn Approach to win 2,000 Guineas at 15/8 (BetVictor)
What A Name each way for the 1,000 Guineas at 5/1 (General)

More Glory to come for Hannon & Hughes

A full day of betting opportunities this Saturday with football fixtures, good jump racing (including the Scottish Grand National & Champion Hurdle) at Ayr & some high quality flat racing at Newbury. We've a pick from the Championship plus two racing picks from Newbury as we look to keep turning a profit.

Bolton Wanderers vs Middlesbrough

The Championship is coming to its climax & Bolton are frantically chasing a playoff spot as they host Middlesbrough who appear to have thrown away their chance of a shot at promotion with an alarming post-Christmas slump in form.

(Improved & improving Marcos Alonso - just like Bolton)

This game really is a tale of opposites with Bolton starting their season disastrously when thought by many (including ourselves) to be strong title contenders but then really turning things around from February onwards with 9 wins from 14 games. Boro won their last game on Tuesday night against Nottingham Forest but that was only their 3rd win of 2013 after looking very strong through the first half of the season. Bolton lost last time out & that was against out-of-form Leicester but it was a road game & they've been far stronger at the Reebok with 13 wins from 21 games vs 4 from 22 away from home, Leicester have been under-performing for a while but they are a very good Championship side really & Bolton gave them a battle only going down late in the 3-2 loss.

Middlesbrough don't score often enough to relieve pressure on their defence, which is serviceable but certainly not impenetrable, they've only scored 4 in their last 8 games & have drawn a blank 5 times in that sequence. Bolton meanwhile have started to show a bit more in defence whilst maintaining their fairly potent attack that is even seeing David N'Gog occasionally scoring, Marcos Alonso is improving as a defender & is getting forward to support the attacking play as well as any full back in the Championship at the moment. Middlesbrough have lost 9 of their last 10 away from home & drawn the other one in that time, they come up against the Trotters who've won their last 7 in a row at the Reebok & haven't lost here since Boxing Day, backing Bolton at only a shade of odds on looks the best football bet of the day.

2.20 Newbury - Spring Cup

(Hayley Turner has a chance of riding another winner for the Queen)

25 runners line up for this competitive early season handicap & that should make things tough from a betting perspective but we think there are good reasons to get behind Border Legend off a light weight as Hayley Turner bids to follow up a win on the Queen owned Sign Manual here on Friday.

Roger Charlton's 4 year old gelding looks unexposed with just 5 runs behind him & has one piece of form which reads very well indeed when close up to Lahaag at Nottingham & that reads very nicely as that one then finished close to Chapter Seven who runs here but gives 12 pounds to the selection & that should put Border Legend past that one. Dance And Dance deserves respect even though heading the weights & if Belgian Bill could run closer to his best artificial surface form he'd have a chance but we like the chances of Border Legend at decent odds of 9/1.

3.30 Newbury - Greenham Stakes

Trainer Richard Hannon & his son-in-law jockey Richard Hughes have already tasted 2,000 Guineas trial success with the hugely impressive Toronado (tipped here) in the Craven at Newmarket on Thursday & they can follow up with a win in Newbury's trial with Olympic Glory.

(Olympic Glory can give Richard Hannon another Greenham winner)

The selection has already achieved a very high rating for a two year old of 117 & comes into his 3 year old season with very high hopes after only being beaten once last year, in the Coventry Stakes at Royal Ascot, by 2,000 Guineas favourite Dawn Approach. Already proven over a mile with a Group One win at Longchamp (doesn't carry any penalty for that) it looks like he only has one rival to face here with comparable form (although being lightly raced horses the others could improve) & that's Marco Botti's Moohaajim.

Moohaajim is actually only rated 1 pound inferior to Olympic Glory & won the Group Two Mill Reef Stakes in record time before only finding the exciting Reckless Abandon too much in the Middle Park Stakes next time. The issue with Moohaajim is that both of those aforementioned races were over 6 furlongs & the step up another furlong may not suit Botti's colt as much as dropping back the furlong will suit Olympic Glory. Moohaajim looks a real speedster & has the potential to turn into a top sprinter but 7 furlongs is a bit of a specialist distance. Hannon has good experience with getting horses to excel at this particular test, I'm thinking of our old favourite Paco Boy here (winner in 2008), & he can get his 6th Greenham winner with Olympic Glory at odds of 4/5 with Ladbrokes.

Selections:
Bolton Wanderers to beat Middlesbrough at 5/6 (BetVictor)
2.20 Newbury - Border Legend to win at 9/1 (General)
3.30 Newbury - Olympic Glory to win at 4/5 (Ladbrokes)