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Sunday 30 October 2011

Monday Night Football - Magpies & Chiefs runs to come to an end

We can't lie, we love Monday nights, we like the fact that there are just a couple of nearly always great & competitive games to concentrate on - it can be tough to pick winning bets but it always feels a real achievement, we're attempting you give you an edge in Monday's matchups at Stoke & Kansas City.

(Stoke captain Ryan Shawcross can help them see off the Toon Army)

Monday Night Football begins live from the Britannia Stadium with Stoke City entertaining unbeaten in the league Newcastle United. Since their return to the top flight Stoke have become an established Premier League side & this season sees them embarking on European football for the first time since two brief spells in the 1970's. The board have backed manager Tony Pulis this summer with big name signings in Woodgate, Upson, Palacios & Crouch as they look to battle on all fronts this season. Although they still seem to struggle on the road, the Britannia is a fortress that no side likes to visit. This is backed up in the evidence by only one defeat in their last 13 games, with eight wins & four draws plus an outstanding defensive record of five clean sheets & only conceding five goals in their last ten home games. It is no surprise that Stoke have done well defensively, Ryan Shawcross is a rock at the centre & it seems extraordinary with his excellent play over multiple seasons that he hasn't been called up to the England squad ahead of other younger upstarts & some other flashier players in club sides conceding plenty of goals. Shawcross scored 8 goals in his 1st season at Stoke & although he hasn't been as prolific since he'll be in & around the Newcastle box for plenty of set pieces & at 33/1 to open the scoring that looks a real tempter.

Visitors Newcastle have made an unexpected yet hugely impressive start to the season which sees them unbeaten in the league with 19 points from their 9 games. Alan Pardew has formed a never say die team spirit & a strong spine running through the side of Krul, Coloccini, Cabaye & Ba. Demba Ba has scored eight goals in this last nine league games & they seem to have unearthed a star in French midfielder Yohan Cabaye whose reputation & influence is growing game by game & scored with two stunning strikes in the last week against Wigan & Blackburn. Our concern with Newcastle is that they suffered their first defeat of the season in the Carling Cup in midweek they need to show how they'll react from this & so far they haven't had the hardest run of league fixtures, especially away from St James Park. In their four away games they have won two at local rivals Sunderland (14th) & Wolves (17th) & drawn against QPR (12th) & Aston Villa (9th) & in these games Newcastle have only managed four goals. Taking into account Stoke's current home record we see a competitive match but Stoke coming out on top at the general price of 6/5.

 (San Diego's Antonio Gates can get a catch in the end zone on the way to victory over the Chiefs)

In the night's NFL game we have an AFC West clash between this season's highly fancied San Diego Chargers & last season's divisional winners the Kansas City Chiefs, as it is a divisional game it's hugely important with a win helping either side for a playoff push. The Chiefs started this season looking just about as bad as any team has for some time, they took beatings from the Bills & the Lions before only jsut losing out away to the Chargers in a game where quarterback Matt Cassel was for the most part hugely accurate completing 17 of 24 passes. They built on that narrow loss & won their next 3 but only narrowly against very poor Minnesota & Vikings sides before last week's shutout against the Oakland Raiders who had just lost quarterback Jason Campbell for the season & switched between backup Kyle Boller & new acquisition Carson Palmer - that goes some way to explaining how the Chiefs managed to pick off 6 passes for interceptions. Surprisingly the Chiefs running game (ranked 7th in yards per game) has been much better than their passing game (ranked 30th), their very different triple running back system has produced yards for the veteran Thomas Jones, Jackie Battle & hugely improved 2nd season rookie Dexter McCluster. Star receiver Dwayne Bowe is nearly at 500 receiving yards & their trade from the Cardinals Steve Breaston is contributing but otherwise no one else in the team is over 100 yards & that makes them easy to defend the pass against, cover those two & they're shut down, they'll find it almost impossible to pass against the Chargers who are giving up less than 180 yards through the air a game.

San Diego ranked 1st in both offensive yards gained & defensive yards given up last year yet failed to make the playoffs thanks to abysmal special teams play & the fact they ran over weak teams helping gain those stats but lost key games including 3 divisionals. They're 4&2 this year & have the players to win this one against the Chiefs, Philip Rivers is an elite quarterback  although this is a poor season by his standards with more interceptions thrown than touchdowns he will benefit from playing against the Chiefs average pass rush although he needs to keep the ball out of the hands of impressive cornerback Brandon Flowers. The Chargers, unlike the Chiefs, have great receivers with 3 players with over 200 yards & 6 totalling over 100 yards receiving, Vincent Jackson & Malcolm Floyd regularly make huge plays & tight end Antonio Gates is fit again after missing 3 games where Randy McMichael came in as backup & was very effective. They use their running backs well in the passing game too with Ryan Mathews & human bowling ball Mike Tolbert having over 20 receptions each, they're both pretty good on the ground too, with Mathews offering speed & Tolbert offering brute strength. The Chargers pass defense is very strong & they should have little to worry about today but they aren't so great at stopping the run & need their defensive line to perform better here, behind them they have one of the league's most exciting young linebackers in Donald Butler who leads the team with 41 tackles in his first playing season after injury prior to 2010. The Chargers will fancy their chances with the matchups in this game & look value to cover a -3 point spread & show why they have a genuine chance at Super Bowl glory this year. Antonio Gates is a genuine star at tight end & from 2004 his season touchdown totals read, 13, 10, 9, 9, 8, 8, 10, with him back fit the Evens on offer for him to score a touchdown at anytime looks hugely generous & should be taken with the utmost confidence.

Selections:
Stoke to beat Newcastle at 6/5 (various)
Ryan Shawcross to score first goal at 33/1 with William Hill
San Diego Chargers to beat Kansas City Chiefs with -3 points on the handicap spread at Evens with Victor Chadler & Ladbrokes
Antonio Gates to score a touchdown at anytime at Evens with Skybet & Boylesports (Ladbrokes offer 1/3!)

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